KPIH [170424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 170424
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
925 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM SNOW 33 WNW ARCO 45.75N 113.93W
11/16/2013 E5.1 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

BEAR CANYON SNOTEL 7903 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 30 SW BURLEY 42.17N 114.20W
11/16/2013 E8.3 INCH CASSIA ID MESONET

BOSTETTER R.S. SNOTEL 7503 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 12 NNW KETCHUM 43.77N 114.42W
11/16/2013 E1.8 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

CHOCOLATE GULCH SNOTEL 6440 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 11 NE SPENCER 44.43N 112.00W
11/16/2013 E5.0 INCH CLARK ID MESONET

CRAB CREEK SNOTEL 6686 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 20 NE PRESTON 42.37N 111.57W
11/16/2013 E10.6 INCH FRANKLIN ID MESONET

EMIGRANT SUMMIT SNOTEL 7390 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 20 ENE HAILEY 43.62N 113.93W
11/16/2013 E3.3 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

GARFIELD R.S. SNOTEL 6560 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 NE MONTPELIER 42.42N 111.17W
11/16/2013 E6.0 INCH BEAR LAKE ID MESONET

GIVEOUT SNOTEL 6932 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 20 NW KETCHUM 43.88N 114.67W
11/16/2013 E3.5 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

GALENA SNOTEL 7440 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 22 NW KETCHUM 43.87N 114.72W
11/16/2013 E4.9 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

GALENA SUMMIT SNOTEL 8782 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 30 NNW ARCO 44.02N 113.47W
11/16/2013 E3.8 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

HILTS CREEK SNOTEL 8001 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 18 SE BURLEY 42.32N 113.62W
11/16/2013 E14.0 INCH CASSIA ID MESONET

HOWELL CANYON SNOTEL 7982 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 11 ENE HAILEY 43.72N 114.17W
11/16/2013 E3.5 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

HYNDMAN SNOTEL 7440 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 W ISLAND PARK 44.42N 111.38W
11/16/2013 E12.7 INCH FREMONT ID MESONET

ISLAND PARK SNOTEL 6293 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 10 NW KETCHUM 43.82N 114.27W
11/16/2013 E4.4 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

LOST WOOD DIVIDE SNOTEL 7903 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 37 NE MACKAY 44.43N 113.32W
11/16/2013 E7.3 INCH LEMHI ID MESONET

MEADOW LAKE SNOTEL 9150 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 28 NE STANLEY 44.47N 114.48W
11/16/2013 E4.0 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

MILL CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL 8870 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 32 NE MACKAY 44.42N 113.40W
11/16/2013 E4.1 INCH LEMHI ID MESONET

MOONSHINE SNOTEL 7440 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 24 N CHALLIS 44.85N 114.27W
11/16/2013 E4.4 INCH LEMHI ID MESONET

MORGAN CREEK SNOTEL 7600 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 NW PRESTON 42.27N 112.13W
11/16/2013 E9.9 INCH FRANKLIN ID MESONET

OXFORD SPRINGS SNOTEL 6740 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 38 E IDAHO FALLS 43.57N 111.22W
11/16/2013 E7.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID MESONET

PINE CREEK PASS SNOTEL 6720 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 27 NNE CHALLIS 44.85N 113.85W
11/16/2013 E4.3 INCH LEMHI ID MESONET

SCHWARTZ LAKE SNOTEL 8620 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 SSE LAVA HOT SPRINGS 42.52N 111.95W
11/16/2013 E8.6 INCH BANNOCK ID MESONET

SEDWICK PEAK SNOTEL 7897 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 N MONTPELIER 42.57N 111.30W
11/16/2013 E8.5 INCH BEAR LAKE ID MESONET

SLUG CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL 7225 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 17 SW MACKAY 43.73N 113.83W
11/16/2013 E2.5 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

SMILEY MOUNTAIN SNOTEL 9520 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 2 NE WAYAN 42.95N 111.37W
11/16/2013 E5.2 INCH CARIBOU ID MESONET

SOMSEN RANCH SNOTEL 6801 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 32 E BLACKFOOT 43.22N 111.68W
11/16/2013 E5.7 INCH BINGHAM ID MESONET

SHEEP MOUNTAIN SNOTEL 6571 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 50 NW ARCO 43.87N 114.22W
11/16/2013 E1.9 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

STICKNEY MILL SNOTEL 7431 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 21 ENE HAILEY 43.63N 113.97W
11/16/2013 E2.8 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

SWEDE PEAK SNOTEL 7641 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 22 NW KETCHUM 43.80N 114.85W
11/16/2013 E9.1 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

VIENNA MINE SNOTEL 8963 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM SNOW 7 S POCATELLO 42.75N 112.48W
11/16/2013 E4.8 INCH BANNOCK ID MESONET

WILDHORSE DIVIDE SNOTEL 6490 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 8 NW ISLAND PARK 44.53N 111.42W
11/16/2013 E21.0 INCH FREMONT ID MESONET

WHITE ELEPHANT SNOTEL 7713 MSL. 20-HOUR TOTAL.

&&

$$

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KHNX [170416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 170416
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
815 PM PST SAT NOV 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE MOJAVE 35.07N 118.15W
11/16/2013 M47 MPH KERN CA AWOS

AWOS STATION MOJAVE AWOS /MHV/



&&

$$

NWS HANFORD CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KHNX [170415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 170415
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
815 PM PST SAT NOV 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW MOJAVE 35.11N 118.24W
11/16/2013 M51 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MESONET STATION CACHE CREEK CHP /AU563/



&&

$$

NWS HANFORD CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KHNX [170415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 170415
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
814 PM PST SAT NOV 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 16 NE TEHACHAPI 35.29N 118.23W
11/16/2013 M54 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MESONET STATION JAWBONE CANYON RAWS /JWBC1/



&&

$$

NWS HANFORD CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KHNX [170415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 170415
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
814 PM PST SAT NOV 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 ESE LAKE ISABELLA 35.54N 118.14W
11/16/2013 M62 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MESONET STATION BIRD SPRNGS-WYLIES KNOB
/BIJC1/



&&

$$

NWS HANFORD CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KBOU [170349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 170349
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
849 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW ROCKY FLATS 39.91N 105.24W
11/16/2013 M61.00 MPH JEFFERSON CO MESONET

0435 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW BOULDER 40.00N 105.29W
11/16/2013 M64.00 MPH BOULDER CO MESONET


&&

$$

KFREDIN

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KPUB [170337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 170337
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
837 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
11/16/2013 M3.0 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 5 PM WITH SNOW RATE DECREASING.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PUB1300063

$$



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KGJT [170254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 170254
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
754 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0656 PM SNOW HAYDEN 40.49N 107.25W
11/16/2013 M2.0 INCH ROUTT CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301870

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [170251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 170251
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
751 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY SNOW TAYLOR PARK 38.82N 106.61W
11/16/2013 E9.0 INCH GUNNISON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

ESTIMATED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 INCHES. WIND AFFECTED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301869

$$

MALEKSA

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KEAX [170246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 170246
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
846 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM HAIL 5 ESE ST JOSEPH 39.74N 94.76W
11/16/2013 E1.25 INCH BUCHANAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SIZE ESTIMATED FROM PHOTO


&&

$$

LAFLIN

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KEAX [170224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 170224
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
824 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0821 PM HAIL EASTON 39.72N 94.64W
11/16/2013 M1.00 INCH BUCHANAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GAMIS

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KTFX [170212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 170212
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
712 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 PM SNOW HIGHWOOD 47.58N 110.79W
11/16/2013 E3.0 INCH CHOUTEAU MT PUBLIC


&&

$$

JNS

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KEAX [170206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 170206
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
806 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM HAIL 1 N AGENCY 39.66N 94.74W
11/16/2013 M1.00 INCH BUCHANAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GAMIS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 170153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170153
MOZ000-KSZ000-170300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560...

VALID 170153Z - 170300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TSTM CLUSTERS DISPLAYING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENEWD INTO N-CNTRL MO. PRIMARY THREATS
WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PRESENT.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT INITIALLY FORMED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY DRYLINE HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL THUS FAR...WHILE DISPLAYING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AS
TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENEWD...AWAY FROM SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SOURCE INVOF THE DRYLINE...TSTMS MAY UNDERGO A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND /AS NOTED RECENTLY WITH TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS
DEKALB COUNTY/. MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER STORM
INTENSIFICATION AS WELL...DESPITE SFC DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASING
INTO THE UPPER 50S F. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...WITH
MAINLY A THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

..ROGERS.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON 39579235 39209386 39209449 39429489 39739504 39959506
40219469 40429379 40569335 40559260 40379230 39579235

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KEAX [170145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 170145
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
745 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0643 PM HAIL 4 SE ELWOOD 39.72N 94.81W
11/16/2013 E0.88 INCH BUCHANAN MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

JL

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KTOP [170123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 170123
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
723 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0626 PM HAIL 4 ESE MAYETTA 39.32N 95.65W
11/16/2013 E1.00 INCH JACKSON KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

WOLTERS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 170113
SWODY1
SPC AC 170110

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO
UPPER MS VALLEY...

CORRECTED SOUNDING INFORMATION FIRST PARAGRAPH

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AS A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD THROUGH THE
BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...A BROAD 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE OZARKS NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN KS AND NW MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG EXTENDING FROM SE KS INTO SE IA. THE NAM
MODEL STEADILY INCREASES INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
MO TONIGHT SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE AND SHOULD SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT
SPRINGFIELD MO STILL SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SUGGESTING
THE ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH IS ELEVATED. THIS FACTOR COMBINED WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND 7.5 C/KM MAY
MAKE THE INITIAL THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE INVERSION OVER
NCNTRL MO SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SFC-BASED LATE
THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS MAY
HELP A WIND DAMAGE THREAT TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING PERSISTING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE
MID 50S F ACROSS WRN IL AND SERN IA...RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT CELLS LATE TONIGHT.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST...THE CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALONG
THE MS RIVER LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO INITIATE WITH STORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO SHOULD ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT IN THE MID MS VALLEY. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN SE MO AT 09Z TO 12Z SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG WITH 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. DUE TO THE LARGE LOOPED HODOGRAPHS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SWD
ACROSS SE MO AND SCNTRL IL INTO FAR NE AR AND WRN KY. WILL ALSO ADD
A SMALL 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER IN SRN
IL...SE MO AND WRN KY.

..BROYLES.. 11/17/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170103
SWODY1
SPC AC 170100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AS A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD THROUGH THE
BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...A BROAD 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE OZARKS NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN KS AND NW MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG EXTENDING FROM SE KS INTO SE IA. THE NAM
MODEL STEADILY INCREASES INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
MO TONIGHT SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE AND SHOULD SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT
KANSAS CITY STILL SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SUGGESTING THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS ELEVATED. THIS FACTOR COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND 7.5 C/KM ON THE
SPRINGFIELD MO 00Z SOUNDING MAY MAKE THE INITIAL THREAT WITH
SUPERCELLS LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKNESS
IN THE INVERSION OVER NCNTRL MO SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
MORE SFC-BASED LATE THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. THIS MAY HELP A WIND DAMAGE THREAT TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE ONLY IN THE MID 50S F ACROSS WRN IL AND SERN IA...RAPID MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT
WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS LATE TONIGHT.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST...THE CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALONG
THE MS RIVER LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO INITIATE WITH STORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO SHOULD ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT IN THE MID MS VALLEY. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN SE MO AT 09Z TO 12Z SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG WITH 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. DUE TO THE LARGE LOOPED HODOGRAPHS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SWD
ACROSS SE MO AND SCNTRL IL INTO FAR NE AR AND WRN KY. WILL ALSO ADD
A SMALL 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER IN SRN
IL...SE MO AND WRN KY.

..BROYLES.. 11/17/2013

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KOTX [170101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 170101
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
500 PM PST SAT NOV 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW 10 E TIGER 48.69N 117.18W
11/16/2013 M10.0 INCH PEND OREILLE WA MESONET

MESONET STATION 10 E TIGER /BGMW1/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


0400 PM SNOW 6 NW TROY 46.80N 116.85W
11/16/2013 M13.0 INCH LATAH ID MESONET

MESONET STATION MOSCOW MOUNTAIN /MSCI1/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


0400 PM SNOW 12 WSW MAZAMA 48.53N 120.65W
11/16/2013 M14.0 INCH OKANOGAN WA MESONET

MESONET STATION WASHINGTON PASS - NWAC
/WPNW1/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0345 PM SNOW 5 SW EMIDA 47.07N 116.67W
11/16/2013 M9.4 INCH BENEWAH ID MESONET

MESONET STATION 5 WSW EMIDA ITD /ITD83/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


0400 PM SNOW 15 SW LUCERNE 48.08N 120.85W
11/16/2013 M9.0 INCH CHELAN WA MESONET

MESONET STATION TRINITY SNOTEL /TRIW1/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


0344 PM SNOW 9 N ONAWAY 47.05N 116.86W
11/16/2013 M8.7 INCH LATAH ID MESONET

MESONET STATION 5 SW SANDERS /ITD40/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


0400 PM SNOW 10 SSW WENATCHEE 47.29N 120.37W
11/16/2013 M8.0 INCH CHELAN WA MESONET

MESONET STATION UPPER WHEELER /UPWW1/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


1110 AM SNOW 4 S DIAMOND LAKE 48.07N 117.19W
11/16/2013 E8.0 INCH PEND OREILLE WA PUBLIC

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0400 PM SNOW 15 S LUCERNE 47.99N 120.57W
11/16/2013 M7.0 INCH CHELAN WA MESONET

MESONET STATION POPE RIDGE /PPRW1/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


0400 PM SNOW 3 NW LEAVENWORTH 47.63N 120.71W
11/16/2013 M6.0 INCH CHELAN WA MESONET

MESONET STATION TUMWATER MOUNTAIN,
LEAVENWORTH /TMTW1/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0900 AM SNOW 4 SE SANTA 47.11N 116.40W
11/16/2013 M6.0 INCH BENEWAH ID COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION FERNWOOD 1SSW /FWDI1/
SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


1200 PM SNOW 2 NW LEAVENWORTH 47.61N 120.70W
11/16/2013 M6.0 INCH CHELAN WA MESONET

MESONET STATION 2 WNW LEAVENWORTH /TUM42/
SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0945 AM SNOW 3 SW JOEL 46.68N 116.92W
11/16/2013 E4.7 INCH LATAH ID PUBLIC

ELEVATION 2858 SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0348 PM SNOW 3 SSW CLARKIA 46.97N 116.28W
11/16/2013 M4.3 INCH SHOSHONE ID MESONET

MESONET STATION 3 SW CLARKIA ITD /ITD89/
SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0400 PM SNOW 3 ENE CHESAW 48.95N 118.99W
11/16/2013 M4.0 INCH OKANOGAN WA MESONET

MESONET STATION GOLD AXE CAMP SNOTEL /GAXW1/
SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0200 PM SNOW 14 WSW PORTHILL 48.89N 116.76W
11/16/2013 M12.0 INCH BOUNDARY ID MESONET

MESONET STATION HIDDEN LAKE /HDLI1/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


COCORAHS STATION 4 W BOYDS /1518B/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS SPOKANE WA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KTOP [170101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 170101
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
701 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 PM HAIL SSE NORTONVILLE 39.41N 95.33W
11/16/2013 E0.88 INCH JEFFERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.


&&

$$

SW

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KEAX [170047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 170047
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
647 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 PM HAIL 8 S ST. JOSEPH 39.65N 94.85W
11/16/2013 M0.88 INCH BUCHANAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GAMIS

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KTOP [170046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 170046
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0643 PM HAIL NNW VALLEY FALLS 39.35N 95.46W
11/16/2013 M1.00 INCH JEFFERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SW

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KPUB [170039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 170039
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0416 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE AIR FORCE ACADEMY 39.03N 104.80W
11/16/2013 M60 MPH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER PUB1300061

$$

MN

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KBOI [170008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KBOI 170008
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
508 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TWIN FALLS 42.56N 114.46W
11/16/2013 M49.00 MPH TWIN FALLS ID ASOS

FROM THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES.

0132 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RIDDLE MOUNTAIN 43.10N 118.50W
11/16/2013 M48.00 MPH HARNEY OR MESONET

FROM THE WSW. WIND GUSTS 35 MPH OR HIGHER IN THE 6 HOURS
ENDING AT 443 PM MST.

1247 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JEROME 42.73N 114.52W
11/16/2013 M47.00 MPH JEROME ID ASOS

FROM THE SW OR 230 DEGREES.

1152 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ROME 42.83N 117.62W
11/16/2013 M41.00 MPH MALHEUR OR AWOS

SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH FOR THREE HOURS 10 AM THROUGH NOON
MST FROM THE WSW.

1149 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BASQUE HILLS 42.24N 119.01W
11/16/2013 M43.00 MPH HARNEY OR MESONET

PEAK WIND GUST FROM THE WEST IN THE HOUR ENDING AT 1149
MST. PEAK WIND GUST AT BURNS FROM THE WSW 39 MPH A COUPLE
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON.

1052 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSW WESTFALL BUTTE 43.90N 117.99W
11/16/2013 M45.00 MPH MALHEUR OR MESONET

FROM THE WNW. PEAK GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH FOR 6 HOURS ENDING
252 PM MST.


&&

$$

VMILLS

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KPUB [170007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 170007
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
507 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1119 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW LA VETA 37.53N 105.03W
11/16/2013 M73 MPH HUERFANO CO MESONET

1024 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNE ROSITA 38.16N 105.28W
11/16/2013 M74 MPH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0743 AM SNOW MAYSVILLE 38.54N 106.22W
11/16/2013 M1.5 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

PAST 12HRS

0707 AM SNOW 5 W WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.56W
11/16/2013 M4.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0637 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
11/16/2013 M10.0 INCH MINERAL CO PUBLIC

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION.

0324 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 S COLORADO CITY 37.86N 104.83W
11/16/2013 M60 MPH HUERFANO CO MESONET

1120 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
11/15/2013 M2.6 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 PM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
11/15/2013 M2.5 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0909 PM SNOW 13 E WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.23W
11/15/2013 M1.5 INCH CUSTER CO BROADCAST MEDIA

ELEVATION 8000 FEET

0854 PM SNOW 1 SSE CRESTONE 37.98N 105.69W
11/15/2013 M1.4 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW DEPTH IS 1 INCH. TEMPERATURE 31 DEGREES. MOST OF
THE SNOW FELL BETWEEN 750 AND 820PM. LIGHT SNOW FALLING
AT TIME OF REPORT.

0812 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
11/15/2013 M1.7 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PUB1300047 PUB1300048 PUB1300049 PUB1300051 PUB1300052
PUB1300053 PUB1300054 PUB1300056 PUB1300057 PUB1300058 PUB1300060

$$

LW

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 560

WWUS20 KWNS 162340
SEL0
SPC WW 162340
KSZ000-MOZ000-170600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 540 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST
OF TOPEKA KANSAS TO 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...STORMS NOW FORMING IN NE KS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS
NRN MO THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BASED ON STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE OVERALL RISK SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE
COOLING SURFACE LAYER AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...THOMPSON

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KBOI [162339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 162339
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
439 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TWIN FALLS 42.56N 114.46W
11/16/2013 M49.00 MPH TWIN FALLS ID ASOS

FROM THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES.

1247 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JEROME 42.73N 114.52W
11/16/2013 M47.00 MPH JEROME ID ASOS

FROM THE SW OR 230 DEGREES.


&&

$$

VMILLS

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KCYS [162253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 162253
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
353 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0352 PM SNOW RYAN PARK 41.32N 106.51W
11/16/2013 M3.2 INCH CARBON WY PUBLIC


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KCYS [162206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 162206
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
306 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM SNOW 30 WNW LARAMIE 41.48N 106.12W
11/16/2013 E4.5 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

SAND LAKE SNOTEL IN THE SNOWY RANGE. ELEVATION 10050
FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.3 INCHES AND THE SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 15 TO 1. ACCUMULATION WAS OVER
PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 12 WNW CENTENNIAL 41.37N 106.32W
11/16/2013 E3.5 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

NORTH FRENCH CREEK SNOTEL IN THE SNOWY RANGE. ELEVATION
10130 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.2 INCHES AND THE
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 15 TO 1. ACCUMULATION WAS
OVER PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 17 ENE RIVERSIDE 41.31N 106.48W
11/16/2013 E1.2 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

SOUTH BRUSH CREEK SNOTEL IN THE SNOWY RANGE. ELEVATION
8440 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.1 INCHES AND THE
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 12 TO 1. ACCUMULATION WAS
OVER PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 11 SSE ENCAMPMENT 41.06N 106.71W
11/16/2013 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

BLACKHALL MOUNTAIN SNOTEL IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE.
ELEVATION 9820 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.4 INCHES
AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 15 TO 1.
ACCUMULATION WAS OVER PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 2 SW HOG PARK RESERVOIR 41.01N 106.90W
11/16/2013 E3.6 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

WHISKEY PARK SNOTEL IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE. ELEVATION
8950 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.3 INCHES AND THE
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 12 TO 1. ACCUMULATION WAS
OVER PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 5 SW ENCAMPMENT 41.16N 106.86W
11/16/2013 E7.5 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

WEBBER SPRINGS SNOTEL IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE.
ELEVATION 9250 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.5 INCHES
AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 15 TO 1.
ACCUMULATION WAS OVER PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 10 WSW ENCAMPMENT 41.15N 106.97W
11/16/2013 E7.5 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

OLD BATTLE SNOTEL IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE. ELEVATION
10000 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.5 INCHES AND THE
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 15 TO 1. ACCUMULATION WAS
OVER PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 17 SW ENCAMPMENT 41.03N 107.03W
11/16/2013 E4.8 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

SANDSTONE RANGER STATION SNOTEL IN THE SIERRA MADRE
RANGE. ELEVATION 8150 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS
0.4 INCHES AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 12 TO 1.
ACCUMULATION WAS OVER PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 14 E DIXON 41.03N 107.27W
11/16/2013 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

BATTLE MOUNTAIN SNOTEL IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE.
ELEVATION 7440 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.3 INCHES
AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 10 TO 1.
ACCUMULATION WAS OVER PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 19 WSW ENCAMPMENT 41.10N 107.13W
11/16/2013 E7.5 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

DIVIDE PEAK SNOTEL IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE. ELEVATION
8880 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.5 INCHES AND THE
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 15 TO 1. ACCUMULATION WAS
OVER PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 35 S RAWLINS 41.28N 107.23W
11/16/2013 E3.6 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

SAGE CREEK BASIN SNOTEL IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE.
ELEVATION 7850 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.3 INCHES
AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 12 TO 1.
ACCUMULATION WAS OVER PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 21 SSE ELK MOUNTAIN 41.41N 106.26W
11/16/2013 E3.5 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

MEDICINE BOW SNOTEL IN THE SNOWY RANGE. ELEVATION 10500
FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.2 INCHES AND THE SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 15 TO 1. ACCUMULATION WAS OVER
PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW SW CENTENNIAL 41.30N 106.11W
11/16/2013 E3.5 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

CINNABAR PARK SNOTEL IN THE SNOWY RANGE. ELEVATION 9574
FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.2 INCHES AND THE SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 15 TO 1. ACCUMULATION WAS OVER
PAST 7 HOURS.

1100 AM SNOW 7 NW CENTENNIAL 41.37N 106.21W
11/16/2013 E1.5 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

BROOKLYN LAKE SNOTEL IN THE SNOWY RANGE. ELEVATION 10240
FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 0.1 INCHES AND THE SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 15 TO 1. ACCUMULATION WAS OVER
PAST 7 HOURS.


&&

$$

GCLAYCOM

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KCYS [162159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 162159
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
259 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1236 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PUMPKIN VINE 41.05N 105.46W
11/16/2013 M69 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KMSO [161521]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 161521
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
820 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 18 S LIBBY 48.13N 115.62W
11/16/2013 M10.0 INCH LINCOLN MT MESONET

MESONET STATION POORMAN CREEK /PMNM8/ HEAVY
SNOW DURATION 12 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM

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KPIH [161519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 161519
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
818 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM SNOW ENE STANLEY 44.22N 114.93W
11/16/2013 M1.0 INCH CUSTER ID TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES. VISIBILITY 1/8 OF A MILE.


&&

$$

VALLE

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KMSO [161517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 161517
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
816 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 E PIERCE 46.48N 115.63W
11/16/2013 M18.0 INCH CLEARWATER ID MESONET

MESONET STATION HEMLOCK BUTTE /HEMI1/ HEAVY
SNOW DURATION 12 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMSO [161515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 161515
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
815 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 E CARDIFF 46.57N 115.74W
11/16/2013 M12.0 INCH CLEARWATER ID MESONET

MESONET STATION SHANGHI SUMMIT /SHAI1/ HEAVY
SNOW DURATION 12 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMFR [161514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 161514
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
713 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 AM HEAVY RAIN BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
11/16/2013 M0.82 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

ALL FELL MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM HEAVY RAIN
DURATION 24 HOURS OBSERVER LOCATION .5 MILES
DUE NORTH OF DOWNTOWN



&&

$$

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

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KPIH [161504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 161504
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
804 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 AM SNOW POCATELLO AIRPORT 42.92N 112.60W
11/16/2013 M1.1 INCH POWER ID OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

JAH

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KPIH [161456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 161456
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
756 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM SNOW S ASHTON 44.07N 111.45W
11/16/2013 M4.5 INCH FREMONT ID TRAINED SPOTTER

BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.


&&

$$

VALLE

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KPIH [161455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 161455
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
755 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
11/16/2013 E3.5 INCH JEFFERSON ID DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

VALLE

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KOTX [161450]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 161450
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
649 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0649 AM SNOW RATHDRUM 47.81N 116.89W
11/16/2013 E3.5 INCH KOOTENAI ID PUBLIC

REPORT FROM FACEBOOK OF WET, SLUSHY SNOW
SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS SPOKANE WA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KPUB [161446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161446
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
746 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0743 AM SNOW MAYSVILLE 38.54N 106.22W
11/16/2013 M1.5 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

PAST 12HRS


&&

EVENT NUMBER PUB1300057

$$

PAP

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KOTX [161429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 161429
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
628 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 AM SNOW COCOLALLA 48.10N 116.61W
11/16/2013 E6.0 INCH BONNER ID PUBLIC

FACEBOOK SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0900 PM SNOW 6 NW DIAMOND LAKE 48.17N 117.30W
11/15/2013 M3.7 INCH PEND OREILLE WA COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION SACHEEN LAKE /SHNW1/
SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0624 AM SNOW TENSED 47.16N 116.92W
11/16/2013 E8.0 INCH BENEWAH ID PUBLIC

FACEBOOK SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS SPOKANE WA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [161428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 161428
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
728 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0642 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 SE LARAMIE 41.18N 105.41W
11/16/2013 M57 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

VEDAUWOO WYDOT SITE. SUSTAINED AT 44 MPH.


&&

$$

HAMMER

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KPIH [161424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 161424
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
724 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 AM SNOW 1 ESE REXBURG 43.82N 111.77W
11/16/2013 M3.0 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JAH

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KPUB [161424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161424
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
724 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0707 AM SNOW 5 W WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.56W
11/16/2013 M4.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER PUB1300056

$$

PAP

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KPUB [161359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161359
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
658 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0637 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
11/16/2013 M10.0 INCH MINERAL CO PUBLIC

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PUB1300054

$$

KLT

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KGJT [161352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161352
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
652 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 AM SNOW SILVERTON 37.81N 107.66W
11/16/2013 M6.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO CAIC

8 TO 12 ON THE PASSES


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301856

$$

TGJT

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KBOU [161347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 161347
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
647 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 NE FOUR CORNERS 40.94N 105.80W
11/16/2013 M91.20 MPH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

MAX SUSTAINED 70.4 MPH


&&

$$

KBOWEN

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KGJT [161345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161345
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
645 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 AM SNOW CARBONDALE 39.40N 107.21W
11/16/2013 E1.0 INCH GARFIELD CO PUBLIC

SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT AT THE 6800 FOOT LEVEL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301855

$$

JDC

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KCYS [161328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 161328
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
628 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0206 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 S WHEATLAND 41.92N 104.96W
11/16/2013 M57.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BORDEAUX WYDOT SITE. SUSTAINED AT 42 MPH.

0421 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE ELK MOUNTAIN 41.67N 106.36W
11/16/2013 M58.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COUNTY ROAD 402 WYDOT SITE. SUSTAINED AT 42 MPH.

0441 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SE TIE SIDING 41.05N 105.47W
11/16/2013 M57.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PUMPKIN VINE WYDOT SITE. SUSTAINED AT 41 MPH.

0551 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S GLENDO 42.32N 105.03W
11/16/2013 M68.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COLEMAN WYDOT SITE. SUSTAINED AT 51 MPH.

0555 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW ARLINGTON 41.64N 106.28W
11/16/2013 M57.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WAGONHOUND WYDOT SITE. SUSTAINED AT 48 MPH.

0601 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ARLINGTON 41.62N 106.25W
11/16/2013 M62.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FOOTE CREEK WYDOT SITE. SUSTAINED AT 48 MPH.


&&

$$

HAMMER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161301
SWODY1
SPC AC 161258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MO AND
MID MS VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 THROUGH EARLY SUN
AS STRONG JET STREAKS NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK AND WA/ID PROGRESS
RAPIDLY ESE TO AMPLIFY EXISTING BROAD TROUGH OVER CNTRL NORTH
AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN AND...LATER IN THE
PERIOD...STRENGTHEN STRONG LOW LVL JET STREAM NOW IN PLACE FROM THE
SRN PLNS TO THE UPR GRT LKS. AT THE SFC...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LOW
PRESSURE NOW COVERING THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER NE
KS/SE NEB LATE TNGT...AND MOVE INTO IA EARLY SUN...AS WA UPR IMPULSE
REACHES THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS.

PERSISTENT WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE LOW-LVL JET STREAM...AND
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLNS...SHOULD FOSTER A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER A BROAD SWATH FROM THE SRN PLNS TO THE UPR
GRT LKS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SVR...ESPECIALLY LATE
TNGT AND EARLY SUN...OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MO AND MID MS VLYS.

...LWR MO TO MID MS VLYS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN...
LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/ELONGATED BAND OF ASCENT NOW EXTENDING FROM
WRN KS SSW INTO ERN NM SHOULD SHEAR ENE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS
TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE MID/UPR MS VLY TNGT. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TO ITS E DURING THE
PERIOD...FROM PARTS OF OK NEWD INTO IL. WHILE ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE WITH TIME...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SVR RISK LIMITED TO MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL...DESPITE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD.

FARTHER NW...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SFC-BASED
STORMS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT AS THE BAND OF ASCENT
OVERTAKES NW FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN OVER NRN MO/SRN IA.
RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS AND 60+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ATOP ZONE
OF LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE MARKING WRN EDGE OF THE SSWLY LLJ COULD
SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH A RISK FOR SVR HAIL/WIND...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID EVE AS UPR
IMPULSE CONTINUES ENE AWAY FROM REGION AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.

A NEW ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS MAY ARISE LATER TNGT
OR...MORE LIKELY...EARLY SUN OVER SRN/CNTRL IA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT
PARTS OF MO AND NW IL AS STRONGER ASCENT AND MID-LVL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK NOW OVER WA/ID APPROACH THE REGION.
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WINDS /WITH 500 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 75 KTS/...MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 60 F/...AND CONVERGENT LOW-LVL FLOW INVOF
DEEPENING SFC LOW TOGETHER SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL...WIND...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

...ARKLATEX TO LWR OH VLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN...
INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN CONFLUENCE ZONE ON ERN SIDE OF PERSISTENT
LOW-LVL JET STREAM EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM NE TX/SW
AR NEWD INTO SE MO AND THE LWR OH VLY LATER TODAY
AND...ESPECIALLY...TNGT/EARLY SUN. WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY WITH NEWD EXTENT...BY LATE
TNGT/EARLY SUN SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME NEARLY SFC-BASED
ACROSS ERN AR/FAR SE MO INTO FAR SRN IL...SW IND...WRN KY...AND WRN
TN. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD ON SE FRINGE OF UPR
TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY...SOME RISK MAY
DEVELOP FOR EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/LEWPS. SUCH ACTIVITY COULD POSE A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DMGG WIND...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..CORFIDI/PETERS.. 11/16/2013

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KPUB [161237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 161237
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
537 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0324 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 S COLORADO CITY 37.86N 104.83W
11/16/2013 M60 MPH HUERFANO CO MESONET

1120 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
11/15/2013 M2.6 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 PM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
11/15/2013 M2.5 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0909 PM SNOW 13 E WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.23W
11/15/2013 M1.5 INCH CUSTER CO BROADCAST MEDIA

ELEVATION 8000 FEET

0854 PM SNOW 1 SSE CRESTONE 37.98N 105.69W
11/15/2013 M1.4 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW DEPTH IS 1 INCH. TEMPERATURE 31 DEGREES. MOST OF
THE SNOW FELL BETWEEN 750 AND 820PM. LIGHT SNOW FALLING
AT TIME OF REPORT.

0812 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
11/15/2013 M1.7 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PUB1300047 PUB1300048 PUB1300049 PUB1300051 PUB1300052
PUB1300053

$$

KLT

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KABQ [161202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 161202
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
502 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM SNOW 8 SE EAGLE NEST 36.46N 105.17W
11/16/2013 E1.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

TOLBY SNOTEL.

0300 AM SNOW 11 NNW CANON PLAZA 36.70N 106.25W
11/16/2013 E4.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

HOPEWELL SNOTEL.

0400 AM SNOW 7 ESE CUBA 36.00N 106.83W
11/16/2013 E1.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

SENORITA DIVIDE SNOTEL.

0400 AM SNOW 9 E CUBA 36.02N 106.80W
11/16/2013 E5.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

VACAS LOCAS SNOTEL.

0400 AM SNOW 8 SSW SAN MIGUEL 36.87N 106.23W
11/16/2013 E2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

SAN ANTONIO SINK SNOTEL.

0400 AM SNOW 8 SW ROCIADA 35.76N 105.53W
11/16/2013 E8.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM OTHER FEDERAL

WESNER SPRINGS SNOTEL.

0400 AM SNOW 8 SSW RED RIVER 36.59N 105.45W
11/16/2013 E5.2 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

KACHINA PEAK AT TAOS SKI AREA.

0400 AM SNOW 6 WNW TERERRO 35.76N 105.78W
11/16/2013 E8.0 INCH SANTA FE NM OTHER FEDERAL

SANTA FE SNOTEL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301534
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301535
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301536
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301537
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301538
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301539
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301540
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301541

$$

JF

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KGJT [161201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161201
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
500 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0459 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 NW GOTHIC 39.02N 107.05W
11/16/2013 E9.0 INCH GUNNISON CO SNOTEL

8 TO 9 INCHES EST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301854

$$

TGJT

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KGJT [161159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161159
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
458 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 NE MOLAS PASS 37.75N 107.68W
11/16/2013 E12.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO SNOTEL

10 TO 12 INCHES EST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301853

$$

TGJT

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KBOI [161156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 161156
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
456 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 AM SNOW 3 S BOISE 43.56N 116.23W
11/16/2013 M2.0 INCH ADA ID OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1-2 INCHES SNOW ON INTERSTATE 84 FROM BOISE TO MOUNTAIN
HOME

0452 AM SNOW MCCALL 44.91N 116.11W
11/16/2013 M4.5 INCH VALLEY ID MESONET

ON SNOW STAKE


&&

$$

LCOLIN

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KGJT [161155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161155
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
455 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0454 AM HEAVY SNOW 9 ENE ELK PARK 37.72N 107.52W
11/16/2013 E12.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO SNOTEL

10 TO 12 INCHES EST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301852

$$

TGJT

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KGJT [161154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161154
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
454 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 AM HEAVY SNOW COAL BANK PASS 37.70N 107.78W
11/16/2013 E12.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO SNOTEL

10 TO 12 INCHES EST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301851

$$

TGJT

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KGJT [161152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161152
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
452 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0451 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 WSW LIZARD HEAD PASS 37.80N 107.92W
11/16/2013 E12.0 INCH DOLORES CO SNOTEL

7 TO 12 INCHES EST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301850

$$

TGJT

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KGJT [161150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161150
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
450 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0446 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SW SWAMP ANGEL 37.90N 107.72W
11/16/2013 E10.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO SNOTEL

9 TO 10 INCHES EST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301849

$$

TGJT

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KPUB [161125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161125
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
425 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0324 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 S COLORADO CITY 37.86N 104.83W
11/16/2013 M60 MPH HUERFANO CO MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER PUB1300053

$$

KLT

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 161001
SWOD48
SPC AC 161000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF
THE U.S. DAYS 4 INTO DAY 5 MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

BY LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH
TX AS A LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS IN WAKE OF
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...MODELS BECOME DISPERSIVE WITH
EVOLVING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A
SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. IN CONTRAST TO THE GFS'S MORE PROGRESSIVE
SRN STREAM...ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CUTOFF A SRN STREAM
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WHILE MAINTAINING A PROGRESSIVE NRN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WOULD ALLOW A POLAR FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO THE
SRN PLAINS LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS
THIS BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...UPPER PATTERN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE EVENT IF SRN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE SWRN STATES.

..DIAL.. 11/16/2013

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KCYS [160914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 160914
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
214 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0213 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/16/2013 M58 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

TTRUDEL

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160822
SWODY3
SPC AC 160821

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE NERN
STATES AND SERN CANADA MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY THE ATTENDANT OCCLUDED
SFC LOW WILL RESIDE OVER SERN CANADA. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND SRN TX
WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY MORNING WHILE SWRN
EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWD INTO THE GULF.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...

A FORCED LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING
WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MEAGER CAPE BUT A VERY
STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG A 60+ KT LLJ. AT LEAST A LOW END
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
CONTINUES EWD AND OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY GREATER.

..DIAL.. 11/16/2013

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KABQ [160740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 160740
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1240 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM SNOW 5 ESE RED RIVER 36.68N 105.33W
11/15/2013 E2.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

RED RIVER PASS SNOTEL.

0900 PM SNOW 8 SSW SAN MIGUEL 36.87N 106.23W
11/15/2013 E1.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

SAN ANTONIO SINK SNOTEL.

0900 PM SNOW 6 WNW TERERRO 35.76N 105.78W
11/15/2013 E1.0 INCH SANTA FE NM OTHER FEDERAL

SANTA FE SNOTEL.

0900 PM SNOW 8 SSW RED RIVER 36.59N 105.45W
11/15/2013 E4.5 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

KACHINA PEAK AT TAOS SKI AREA.

0900 PM SNOW 5 SW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.78W
11/15/2013 E2.0 INCH LINCOLN NM OTHER FEDERAL

SIERRA BLANCA SNOTEL.

0900 PM SNOW 8 SW ROCIADA 35.76N 105.53W
11/15/2013 E2.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM OTHER FEDERAL

WESNER SPRINGS SNOTEL.

0900 PM SNOW 9 E CUBA 36.02N 106.80W
11/15/2013 E1.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

VACAS LOCAS SNOTEL.

0900 PM SNOW 8 NE ARROYO SECO 36.58N 105.45W
11/15/2013 E3.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

TAOS POWDERHORN SNOTEL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301526
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301527
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301528
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301529
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301530
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301531
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301532
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301533

$$

44

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160701
SWODY2
SPC AC 160659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN IL INTO
IND...OH...SRN MI AND NRN KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND A PORTION OF THE NERN AND SERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER JET NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING SEWD
INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH BASE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGH. ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEGATIVELY TILTED
THROUGH THE MID MS...OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...REACHING
WRN PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SFC CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MID MS...OH AND TN VALLEYS...WHILE A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT AND A FEW
TORNADOES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE
MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S ALONG
COASTAL TX WITH 70 NOT FAR OFFSHORE. A STRONG 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ WILL
ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE OH VALLEY WITH MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THAT WILL LIMIT DIABATIC WARMING IN MUCH OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR
BELT SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...THE PRIMARY DESTABILIZATION MECHANISM
WILL BE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BENEATH A PLUME OF EWD
DEVELOPING 7-7.5 MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN WAKE OF WARM ADVECTION
STORMS...AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 500-1500 J/KG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER JET EXIT
REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHOULD SFC BASED WARM SECTOR
INITIATION OCCUR...80+ KT MID-LEVEL WSWLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAST
MOVING STORMS THAT SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 50+
KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF THE TORNADO THREAT
/SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP/ WILL DEPEND ON MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP EWD. GIVEN STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR...THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS WITH LEWP AND
BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES ALSO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

...NERN U.S....

STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY OUTPACE THE AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ENCOUNTER MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY
APPROACH THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
MAY PERSIST WITH REMAINING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION LATE THIS PERIOD.

..DIAL.. 11/16/2013

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