MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 170153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170153
MOZ000-KSZ000-170300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560...

VALID 170153Z - 170300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TSTM CLUSTERS DISPLAYING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENEWD INTO N-CNTRL MO. PRIMARY THREATS
WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PRESENT.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT INITIALLY FORMED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY DRYLINE HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL THUS FAR...WHILE DISPLAYING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AS
TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENEWD...AWAY FROM SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SOURCE INVOF THE DRYLINE...TSTMS MAY UNDERGO A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND /AS NOTED RECENTLY WITH TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS
DEKALB COUNTY/. MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER STORM
INTENSIFICATION AS WELL...DESPITE SFC DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASING
INTO THE UPPER 50S F. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...WITH
MAINLY A THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

..ROGERS.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON 39579235 39209386 39209449 39429489 39739504 39959506
40219469 40429379 40569335 40559260 40379230 39579235

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