Thursday, January 22, 2009

KAMA [230254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 230254
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
854 PM CST THU JAN 22 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1044 AM WILDFIRE 2 ENE STINNETT 35.83N 101.40W
01/19/2009 M718 ACRE HUTCHINSON TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE EAST BROADWAY WILDFIRE BEGAN JUST OFF THE ROADWAY
ON FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1526 AND CONSUMED SEVEN HUNDRED
AND EIGHTEEN ACRES. THE ACREAGE BURNED WAS MEASURED
USING GPS. THE CAUSE OF THE WILDFIRE IS STILL UNDER
INVESTIGATION BY THE HUTCHINSON COUNTY FIRE MARSHALS
OFFICE. NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR INJURIES WERE
REPORTED...HOWEVER THERE WAS ONE NEAR MISS. A TOTAL OF
SEVEN FIRE DEPARTMENTS RESPONDED TO THE WILDFIRE. THE
WILDFIRE WAS CONTAINED APPROXIMATELY 1430 CST.


0348 PM WILDFIRE 5 SW GUYMON 36.64N 101.55W
01/19/2009 E350 ACRE TEXAS OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

*** 1 INJ *** WILDFIRE OCCURRED ON U.S. HIGHWAY 54 AND
WAS CAUSED BY HAY TRUCK WHICH HAD CAUGHT FIRE. HIGH
WINDS DROVE THE FIRE DIRECTLY TOWARD HOMES AND OTHER
PROPERTY. THE DRIVER OF THE HAY TRUCK RECEIVED BURN
INJURIES TO HIS HANDS AND ARMS. THE
TRUCK...TRAILER...AND STACKS OF HAY WERE DESTROYED BY
THE FIRE AND SEVERAL ABANDONED VEHICLES WERE DAMAGED. NO
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS REPORTED...ALTHOUGH SEVERAL HOMES
AND OTHER STRUCTURES WERE THREATENED. THERE WAS ALSO
DAMAGE TO THE HIGHWAY DUE TO THE DIRECT AND LASTING FIRE
FROM THE TRUCK AND TRAILER. THE WILDFIRE WAS FINALLY
EXTINGUISHED AROUND 2300 CST. THE GUYMON FIRE DEPARTMENT
WAS ASSISTED BY GOODWELL FD...TEXHOMA FD...TEXAS COUNTY
NUMBER2...TEXAS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OKLAHOMA
HIGHWAY PATROL...TEXAS COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE...AND
OKLAHOMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900932 AMA0900933

$$

KJS

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KAMA [230241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 230241
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
840 PM CST THU JAN 22 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0348 PM WILDFIRE 5 SW GUYMON 36.64N 101.55W
01/19/2009 E350 ACRE TEXAS OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

*** 1 INJ *** WILDFIRE OCCURRED ON U.S. HIGHWAY 54 AND
WAS CAUSED BY HAY TRUCK WHICH HAD CAUGHT FIRE. HIGH
WINDS DROVE THE FIRE DIRECTLY TOWARD HOMES AND OTHER
PROPERTY. THE DRIVER OF THE HAY TRUCK RECEIVED BURN
INJURIES TO HIS HANDS AND ARMS. THE
TRUCK...TRAILER...AND STACKS OF HAY WERE DESTROYED BY
THE FIRE AND SEVERAL ABANDONED VEHICLES WERE DAMAGED. NO
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS REPORTED...ALTHOUGH SEVERAL HOMES
AND OTHER STRUCTURES WERE THREATENED. THERE WAS ALSO
DAMAGE TO THE HIGHWAY DUE TO THE DIRECT AND LASTING FIRE
FROM THE TRUCK AND TRAILER. THE WILDFIRE WAS FINALLY
EXTINGUISHED AROUND 2300 CST. THE GUYMON FIRE DEPARTMENT
WAS ASSISTED BY GOODWELL FD...TEXHOMA FD...TEXAS COUNTY
NUMBER2...TEXAS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OKLAHOMA
HIGHWAY PATROL...TEXAS COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE...AND
OKLAHOMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900933

$$

KJS

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KGGW [230108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 230108
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
608 PM MST THU JAN 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RAYMOND PORT OF ENTRY 49.00N 104.57W
01/22/2009 M39.00 MPH SHERIDAN MT CO-OP OBSERVER

VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO FOR AWHILE

1135 AM BLIZZARD PORT OF OPHEIM 49.00N 106.38W
01/22/2009 VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO FOR SHORT TIME

1138 AM BLIZZARD PORT OF MORGAN 49.00N 107.83W
01/22/2009 PHILLIPS MT CO-OP OBSERVER

VISIBILITY LESS THAN HALF MILE

0100 PM BLIZZARD 2 N MEDICINE LAKE 48.53N 104.50W
01/22/2009 SHERIDAN MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

VISIBILITY 20 TO 30 FT ALONG HIGHWAY 16

0115 PM BLIZZARD 3 E FLAXVILLE 48.80N 105.11W
01/22/2009 DANIELS MT PUBLIC

VISIBILITY AROUND ONE QUARTER MILE. WIND GUSTING TO 42
MPH.

0130 PM BLIZZARD PLENTYWOOD 48.77N 104.56W
01/22/2009 SHERIDAN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGHWAY 5 CLOSED FROM PLENTYWOOD TO WESTBY

0145 PM BLIZZARD PORT OF WHITETAIL 49.00N 105.16W
01/22/2009 DANIELS MT PUBLIC

VISIBILITY LESS THAN HALF MILE

0145 PM BLIZZARD 18 E BREDETTE 48.50N 104.91W
01/22/2009 ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. PEAK WIND
GUST OF 43 MPH.

0150 PM BLIZZARD 10 SSE OPHEIM 48.72N 106.32W
01/22/2009 VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY LESS THAN QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES

0215 PM BLIZZARD RESERVE 48.61N 104.46W
01/22/2009 SHERIDAN MT PUBLIC

VISIBILITY AS LOW AS AN EIGHTH OF A MILE AT TIMES


&&

$$

BB/AES

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KAMA [230051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 230051
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
651 PM CST THU JAN 22 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1044 AM WILDFIRE 2 ENE STINNETT 35.83N 101.40W
01/19/2009 M718 ACRE HUTCHINSON TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE EAST BROADWAY WILDFIRE BEGAN JUST OFF THE ROADWAY
ON FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1526 AND CONSUMED SEVEN HUNDRED
AND EIGHTEEN ACRES. THE ACREAGE BURNED WAS MEASURED
USING GPS. THE CAUSE OF THE WILDFIRE IS STILL UNDER
INVESTIGATION BY THE HUTCHINSON COUNTY FIRE MARSHALS
OFFICE. NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR INJURIES WERE
REPORTED...HOWEVER THERE WAS ONE NEAR MISS. A TOTAL OF
SEVEN FIRE DEPARTMENTS RESPONDED TO THE WILDFIRE. THE
WILDFIRE WAS CONTAINED APPROXIMATELY 1430 CST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900932

$$

KJS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230042
SWODY1
SPC AC 230039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST THU JAN 22 2009

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN U.S...

00Z SOUNDING FROM FGZ INDICATES WEAK BUOYANCY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ROUGHLY 7 C/KM THROUGH
6KM...OVER PORTIONS OF AZ. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NW OF FGZ. WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD. EVEN SO...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH LEVELS NECESSARY FOR SUSTAINED LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED THIS
PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 01/23/2009

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KAMA [222238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 222238
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
438 PM CST THU JAN 22 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1044 AM WILDFIRE 2 ENE STINNETT 35.83N 101.40W
01/19/2009 M718 ACRE HUTCHINSON TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE EAST BROADWAY WILDFIRE BEGAN JUST OFF THE ROADWAY
ON FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1526 AND CONSUMED SEVEN HUNDRED
AND EIGHTEEN ACRES. THE ACREAGE BURNED WAS MEASURED
USING GPS. THE CAUSE OF THE WILDFIRE IS STILL UNDER
INVESTIGATION BY THE HUTCHINSON COUNTY FIRE MARSHALS
OFFICE. NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR INJURIES WERE
REPORTED...HOWEVER THERE WAS ONE NEAR MISS. A TOTAL OF
SEVEN FIRE DEPARTMENTS RESPONDED TO THE WILDFIRE. THE
WILDFIRE WAS CONTAINED APPROXIMATELY 1430 CST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900932

$$

KJS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221909
SWODY1
SPC AC 221906

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CST THU JAN 22 2009

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA THROUGH SRN AZ...

A LARGE PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
SPREADING NWD THROUGH THE WRN U.S. AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA AND NRN BAJA. THE 12Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST
RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 6-6.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE (AOB 200
J/KG) IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MOIST...WEAKLY CAPPED UNSTABLE LAYER
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SRN CA THROUGH
AZ INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN VERY SPARSE COVERAGE.

..DIAL.. 01/22/2009

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KPIH [221844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 221844
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1144 AM MST THU JAN 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1138 AM FREEZING RAIN WESTON 42.04N 111.98W
01/22/2009 E0.00 INCH FRANKLIN ID CO-OP OBSERVER

FREEZING RAIN REPORTED.


&&

$$

TWYATT

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KPIH [221825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 221825
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1124 AM MST THU JAN 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 AM FREEZING RAIN PRESTON 42.10N 111.87W
01/22/2009 E0.00 INCH FRANKLIN ID TRAINED SPOTTER

FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS REPORTED.


&&

$$

TWYATT

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221727
SWODY2
SPC AC 221725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST THU JAN 22 2009

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SSEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO SRN CA/NRN BAJA
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY WITHIN DEVELOPING CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REINFORCING SURGE OF POLAR AIR
OVER THE CNTRL STATES...PRECEDED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE
SWD AND EXTEND FROM SERN CANADA SWWD THROUGH AR AND N CNTRL TX BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN AXIS OF MODIFIED CP
AIR WITH 50S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PLUME OF 6.5-7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH TX AND A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ABOVE RETURNING MOIST AXIS...RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION
MAINLY FROM ERN TX INTO PARTS OF AR AND LA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
WEAK DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WITH
MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG. MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS ALONG AND NORTH OF SWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM SRN AR INTO NRN LA WHERE SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. WWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT INTO TX WILL BE
LIMITED BY A STRONGER CAP.

...N CNTRL CA...

FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER CNTRL
THROUGH N CNTRL CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
NOT EXCEED 10%.

..DIAL.. 01/22/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221601
SWODY1
SPC AC 221558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 AM CST THU JAN 22 2009

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA COAST TODAY...
A GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SRN
CA/NRN BAJA LATE TODAY. A PLUME OF PW VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES
PRECEDES THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5 C/KM
PER 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. IT APPEARS THAT VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 150 J/KG BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER/ WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY NEAR THE SRN CA COAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG/DEEP FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...BUT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

..THOMPSON.. 01/22/2009

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KPDT [221541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 221541
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
741 AM PST THU JAN 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 AM DENSE FOG CONDON 45.24N 120.18W
01/22/2009 GILLIAM OR PUBLIC

FREEZING FOG KNOCKED OUT POWER YESTERDAY FOR AN HOUR. THE
FOG HAD STARTED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY AROUND 930 PM, BUT
ROLLED BACK IN OVERNIGHT. LESS THAN 100 FT OF VISIBILITY
IN SOME AREAS.


&&

$$

RQB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221252
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST THU JAN 22 2009

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SWRN U.S...
SHEARED UPPER VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE SRN CA/NRN
BAJA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL MOISTENING AOA 850MB /AS
EVIDENCED ON 12Z SOUNDING AT NKX THIS MORNING/ WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE
BUOYANCY FOR DEEPENING MOIST CONVECTION AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACH 6.5 C/KM. THIS WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
NEAR THE SRN CA COAST...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR CLOUD DEPTHS CAPABLE
OF GENERATING A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES. AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BECOME HOSTILE FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.
DOWNSTREAM...MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE DESERT SW...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING
AND WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION...MOST OF WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.

..EVANS/DARROW.. 01/22/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221242
SWODY1
SPC AC 221238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST THU JAN 22 2009

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SWRN U.S...
SHEARED UPPER VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE SRN CA/NRN
BAJA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL MOISTENING AOA 850MB /AS
EVIDENCED ON 12Z SOUNDING AT NKX THIS MORNING/ WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE
BUOYANCY FOR DEEPENING MOIST CONVECTION AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACH 6.5 C/KM. THIS WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
NEAR THE SRN CA COAST...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR CLOUD DEPTHS CAPABLE
OF GENERATING A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES. AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BECOME HOSTILE FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.
DOWNSTREAM...MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE DESERT SW...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING
AND WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION...MOST OF WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.

..EVANS/DARROW.. 01/22/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220933
SWOD48
SPC AC 220933

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CST THU JAN 22 2009

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN FCST TO BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. PHASING BLEND OF SHORTWAVES OF NRN AND SRN
STREAM ORIGIN IS FCST BY MOST OPERATIONAL AND SREF PACKAGES TO
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRONOUNCED CLOSED CYCLONE OVER COASTAL
NRN/CENTRAL CA DURING DAYS 4-5/25TH-27TH TIME FRAME. SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY SPECTRAL...ECMWF AND MOST SREF
MEMBERS TO EJECT EWD OR ENEWD ACROSS ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS DURING
ENSUING 3-4 DAYS...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TIMING AND IN
CLOSED-VS-OPEN NATURE OF RESULTANT TROUGH...AND EVEN GREATER
DIFFERENCES IN ITS IMPACT UPON LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND
THERMODYNAMIC RESPONSE E OF ROCKIES. DAY 6-8 SVR
POTENTIAL...THEREFORE..IS TOO CONDITIONAL AND UNCERTAIN FOR OUTLOOK
ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 01/22/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 220638
SWODY3
SPC AC 220637

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CST THU JAN 22 2009

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER GREAT LAKES
AROUND MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN CANADA...RIDGING OVER NERN PACIFIC
AND ERN AK/YUKON REGION. FARTHER S...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL...ANCHORED BY HIGH-AMPLITUDE/POSITIVELY-TILTED SYNOPTIC
TROUGH FROM COASTAL PACIFIC NW SSWWD ACROSS PACIFIC...OFFSHORE BAJA.
BY END OF PERIOD...NRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGHING WILL SHIFT INLAND
OVER PACIFIC NW...TO NEAR NRN CA COAST...WHILE SMALLER/POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND CENTRAL/NRN CA.
MEANWHILE...WEAKER DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY JUST
OFFSHORE SRN CA/NRN BAJA -- WILL MOVE EWD FROM TX COAST ACROSS NRN
GULF TO FL.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
CAROLINAS...SRN APPALACHIANS...MS DELTA REGION AND S TX...REACHING
FROM SRN GA OR NRN FL WSWWD TO VICINITY BRO BY END OF PERIOD.

WSWLY-SWLY FLOW...ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING
MAY INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS WRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EACH SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SVR THREAT. INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL LIFT ALSO SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL WITH
ANY CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN NEAR-FRONTAL PRECIP PLUME ACROSS GULF
COAST STATES.

..EDWARDS.. 01/22/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 220557
SWODY2
SPC AC 220555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST WED JAN 21 2009

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL CONUS
THIS PERIOD. MAIN FEATURE IN THAT FLOW BELT WILL BE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE SRN CA
AND BAJA NEAR 120W. THIS PERTURBATION WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES EWD OVER BAJA...NRN GULF OF CA...SRN CA AND AZ
DAY-1...WHILE UPSTREAM LOW PIVOTS SEWD/EWD OVER PACIFIC. LEADING
TROUGH THEN WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NRN MEX...ELP-AREA BORDERLANDS
AND SWRN/CENTRAL TX THIS PERIOD...REACHING NEAR LOWER-MIDDLE TX
COAST BY 24/12Z.

MEANWHILE...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW ANALYZED OVER
PORTIONS CENTRAL BC AND NRN AB -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD THEN EWD
ACROSS NRN PLAINS...NRN ONT AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
DAY-2...CONTRIBUTING TO BROAD/CYCLONIC FLOW BELT FROM CANADIAN
ROCKIES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TO QUE. RELATED SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE --
NOW DEVELOPING OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS E OF CANADIAN ROCKIES -- WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY 23/12Z. ERN
PORTION OF FRONT THEN SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EWD OVER GREAT LAKES.
TRAILING/WRN PORTION WILL SAG SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY SWD OVER LOWER MS
VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...REACHING NRN AL...CENTRAL MS AND S-CENTRAL
TX BY END OF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW -- INITIALLY MORE LEE-SIDE IN
ORIGIN -- SHOULD ATTACH TO FRONT OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DAY-1.
THIS LOW SHOULD EVOLVE/PROPAGATE SSEWD TO CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS FRONTAL-WAVE FEATURE.

...ARKLATEX...LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS...
BROAD LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME IS FCST THROUGHOUT PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION...IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT AND MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS MODIFICATION IN UPSTREAM/GULF
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE RATHER IMMATURE...SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IS
EXPECTED BY SECOND HALF OF PERIOD TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INVOF FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEEPEN GRADUALLY AND
EXPAND/SHIFT EWD -- AS CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT OF PROGRESSIVELY
MORE MOIST PARCELS TO LFC OCCURS OVER BROADER AREA...AND
PRECONVECTIVE BUOYANCY ROOTED IN ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER SLOWLY
INCREASES. ELEVATED MUCAPE 200-600 J/KG IS POSSIBLE DURING
24/03Z-24/12Z TIME FRAME. RELATIVELY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LACK
OF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY EACH SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TOO
DISORGANIZED FOR SVR PROBABILITIES TO BE INTRODUCED ATTM.

LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEPER ALOFT WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL
TX -- IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CORE REGION OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR
MASS. HOWEVER...CAPPING NEAR BASE OF THAT PLUME AND LACK OF GREATER
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.

...ERN CA/WRN NV...
SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT...LOW LEVEL WAA AND RELATED STEEPENING OF
LAPSE RATES MAY OCCUR INVOF SIERRA NV RANGE TO SUPPORT MIDLEVEL
CONVECTION. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAPE -- GENERALLY AOB 150
J/KG -- MAY EXTEND INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS...AND THAT VERY
BRIEF/ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE. ATTM...PROBABLE
COVERAGE/DURATION APPEAR TOO MRGL TO WARRANT GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 01/22/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220509
SWODY1
SPC AC 220506

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST WED JAN 21 2009

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN U.S...

SHEARED UPPER VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED NEAR 27N/120W...WILL
APPROACH THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BROAD
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL MOISTENING ABOVE
850MB WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE BUOYANCY FOR DEEPENING CONVECTION AS MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 6.5 C/KM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL EXIST NEAR THE SRN CA COAST...LIKELY
SUFFICIENT FOR CLOUD DEPTHS CAPABLE OF GENERATING A FEW LIGHTING
STRIKES. AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL BECOME HOSTILE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. DOWNSTREAM...MODELS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE DESERT
SW...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING AND WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND SHALLOW CONVECTION...MOST OF
WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.

..DARROW.. 01/22/2009

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