DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070047
SWODY1
SPC AC 070045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CALIFORNIA INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...
A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TURN EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE HAS
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU...BUT WEAK
DESTABILIZATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO A TONGUE OF HIGHER
MOISTURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND STRONGER HEATING/MODEST MOISTENING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL
COLD CORE/MAIN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL NOT
REACH NORTHERN BAJA/EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT. THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
BUT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...PERHAPS THE COASTAL RANGES AND COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.

...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
RELATIVELY STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW APPEAR LIKELY TO BE STABILIZED
SHORTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL COOLING...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY DIMINISHING...AND THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH 02-03Z.

..KERR.. 03/07/2010

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KOAX [062345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 062345
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
545 PM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0514 PM HAIL 1 E ONAWA 42.03N 96.07W
03/06/2010 E0.50 INCH MONONA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JB

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KOAX [062255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 062255
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
455 PM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM HAIL OTOE 40.72N 96.12W
03/06/2010 E0.75 INCH OTOE NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JB

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KLBF [062056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 062056
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
256 PM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM SNOW BUTTE 42.91N 98.85W
03/06/2010 E0.5 INCH BOYD NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0245 PM SNOW 15 N ATKINSON 42.75N 98.98W
03/06/2010 M2.0 INCH HOLT NE PUBLIC

TOTAL SNOWFALL MEASURED AT 2.0 INCHES THROUGH 245 PM CST.

0245 PM SNOW 15 NE ATKINSON 42.69N 98.77W
03/06/2010 E2.0 INCH HOLT NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

CJS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061948
SWODY1
SPC AC 061946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SMALL CHANGES MADE TO
THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES.

..MEAD.. 03/06/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010/

COLD UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING SWD OFF THE CA COAST WILL
TURN EWD TO JUST W OF LAX/SAN BY 12Z SUN. SLY FLOW ACROSS THE SWRN
STATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BOTH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL WELL TO
THE W...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED THRU THE
PERIOD AND WELL BELOW ANY SEVERE LEVELS.

STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE ONSHORE SRN CA OVERNIGHT BUT ANY
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS WWD TO THE
UPPER LOW CENTER. GIVEN WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL REGION.

COLD CORE UPPER LOW NWRN NEB WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TOP OF
SCENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AS IT MOVES EWD TO IA OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT
HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON EWD ACROSS NEB FOR A FEW LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...SPREADING EWD INTO IA AND NRN MO THIS EVENING.

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KCYS [061930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061930
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1230 PM MST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW SAGE CREEK BASIN 41.40N 107.26W
03/06/2010 E5.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SAGE CREEK BASIN SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7850 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW DIVIDE PEAK 41.30N 107.15W
03/06/2010 E7.2 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

DIVIDE PEAK SNOTEL. ELEVATION 8880 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW BATTLE MOUNTAIN 41.05N 107.27W
03/06/2010 E9.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

BATTLE MOUNTAIN SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7440 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW SANDSTONE RANGER STATIO 41.11N 107.17W
03/06/2010 E10.8 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SANDSTONE RANGER STATION SNOTEL. ELEVATION 8150 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW OLD BATTLE 41.15N 106.97W
03/06/2010 E7.5 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

OLD BATTLE SNOTEL. ELEVATION 10000 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW WEBBER SPRINGS 41.16N 106.93W
03/06/2010 E7.2 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

WEBBER SPRINGS SNOTEL. ELEVATION 9250 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW LITTLE SNAKE RIVER 41.07N 106.94W
03/06/2010 E15.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

LITTLE SNAKE RIVER SNOTEL. ELEVATION 8915 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW WHISKEY PARK 41.00N 106.91W
03/06/2010 E12.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

WHISKEY PARK SNOTEL. ELEVATION 8950 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSE RYAN PARK 41.30N 106.50W
03/06/2010 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

BLACKHALL MOUNTAIN SNOTEL. ELEVATION 9820 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW SOUTH BRUSH CREEK 41.33N 106.50W
03/06/2010 E14.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SOUTH BRUSH CREEK SNOTEL. ELEVATION 8440 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW NORTH FRENCH CREEK 41.33N 106.38W
03/06/2010 E18.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

NORTH FRENCH CREEK SNOTEL. ELEVATION 10130 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW SAND LAKE 41.46N 106.28W
03/06/2010 E12.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SAND LAKE SNOTEL. ELEVATION 10050 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW N BROOKLYN LAKE 41.36N 106.23W
03/06/2010 E6.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

BROOKLYN LAKE SNOTEL. ELEVATION 10240 FT.

1000 AM SNOW 2 NE ROB ROY RESERVOIR 41.24N 106.23W
03/06/2010 E4.8 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

CINNABAR PARK SNOTEL. ELEVATION 9574 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW CROW CREEK 41.23N 105.38W
03/06/2010 E14.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

CROW CREEK SNOTEL. ELEVATION 8330 FT.

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW WINDY PEAK 42.28N 105.58W
03/06/2010 E9.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

WINDY PEAK SNOTEL. ELEVATION 7900 FT.

&&

$$

LUNDQUIST

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KSGX [061840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 061840
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1040 AM PST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0947 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 S NEWPORT BEACH 33.54N 117.91W
03/06/2010 PZZ655 CA ASOS

FUNNEL CLOUD OCCURRED BRIEFLY OVER THE WATER REPORTED BY
THE JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT OBSERVER AT 945 AM PST. THE STORM
PRODUCED A SECOND FUNNEL CLOUD AT 957 AM PST. AROUND 1000
AM, NEWPORT HARBOR RECEIVED REPORTS FROM A POLICE
HELECOPTER AND PUBLIC CITIZENS ON LAND THAT 4-5 FUNNEL
CLOUDS FORMING SIMULTANEOUSLY APPROXIMATELY 1/2-2 MILES
OFFSHORE NEAR CRYSTAL COVE.

&&

$$

TSTALL

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KLOX [061839]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 061839
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1039 AM PST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 20 SE LONG BEACH 33.59N 117.91W
03/06/2010 PZZ655 CA COAST GUARD

CORRECTION TO LSRLOX 061830. THERE WAS NO WATER
SPOUT...THERE WERE 4 FUNNEL CLOUDS. REPORT WAS
CORROBORATED THROUGH SGX BY CALLING NEWPORT HARBOR
PATROL.

&&

$$

FORWOOD

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KLOX [061830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 061830
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1030 AM PST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 AM WATER SPOUT 20 SE LONG BEACH 33.59N 117.91W
03/06/2010 PZZ655 CA COAST GUARD

LONG BEACH COAST GUARD RECEIVED A CALL FROM NEWPORT
HARBOR PATROL REPORTING A WATER SPOUT. WATER SPOUT
DISSIPATED.

&&

$$

FORWOOD

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KRIW [061739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 061739
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1035 AM MDT SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1019 AM SNOW RIVERTON 4W 43.03N 108.45W
03/05/2010 M0.75 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1019 AM SNOW RIVERTON 5N 43.10N 108.39W
03/05/2010 M1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1020 AM SNOW KINNEAR 43.15N 108.67W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

1020 AM HEAVY SNOW KINNEAR 7.2ESE 43.10N 108.56W
03/05/2010 M7.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1020 AM SNOW RIVERTON 10NW 43.11N 108.53W
03/05/2010 M4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1022 AM SNOW LANDER 1.7 N 42.85N 108.72W
03/05/2010 M5.50 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1022 AM SNOW DUBOIS 9.7 WNW 43.57N 109.82W
03/05/2010 M1.50 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1023 AM SNOW THAYNE 4.2 NNE 42.97N 110.95W
03/05/2010 M2.80 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1023 AM SNOW THAYNE 1SE 42.90N 110.98W
03/05/2010 M3.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY PUBLIC

1023 AM HEAVY SNOW SMOOT 4.9 SSE 42.55N 110.88W
03/05/2010 M6.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1024 AM SNOW PINEDALE 13 SE 42.75N 109.66W
03/05/2010 M0.80 INCHES SUBLETTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1025 AM SNOW MOOSE .4 S 43.65N 110.71W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1025 AM SNOW JACKSON 12.3 NE 43.62N 110.62W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1025 AM SNOW PINEDALE 13.8 NW 42.98N 110.08W
03/05/2010 M0.20 INCHES SUBLETTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1026 AM SNOW KEMMERER 0.6 N 41.79N 110.54W
03/05/2010 M0.10 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1038 AM SNOW LANDER 4.4 SSW 42.77N 108.77W
03/05/2010 M4.60 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1038 AM HEAVY SNOW SOUTH PASS 42.47N 108.84W
03/05/2010 M8.00 INCHES FREMONT WY WYDOT

WYO 28 NEAR SOUTH PASS

1040 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 12 SW 42.70N 108.90W
03/05/2010 E9.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

TOWNSEND CREEK SNOTEL

1041 AM HEAVY SNOW ATLANTIC CITY 7 NW 42.57N 108.84W
03/05/2010 E6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

SOUTH PASS SNOTEL

1041 AM SNOW LANDER 19 SSW 42.59N 108.90W
03/05/2010 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

DEER PARK SNOTEL

1041 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 18 W 42.87N 109.09W
03/05/2010 E16.50 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

HOBBS PARK SNOTEL

1041 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 26 NW 43.03N 109.17W
03/05/2010 E12.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

ST. LAWRENCE ALT SNOTEL

1042 AM HEAVY SNOW CROWHEART 14 W 43.28N 109.45W
03/05/2010 E7.50 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL

1042 AM SNOW BOULDER 24 ESE 42.65N 109.26W
03/05/2010 E3.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL

0723 PM SNOW COKEVILLE 42.08N 110.95W
03/05/2010 M3.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0724 PM HEAVY SNOW AFTON 42.72N 110.93W
03/05/2010 M8.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0724 PM SNOW BIG PINEY 21 W 42.49N 110.53W
03/05/2010 E3.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

SNIDER BASIN SNOTEL

0724 PM SNOW KEMMERER 36 N 42.30N 110.68W
03/05/2010 E2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

INDIAN CREEK SNOTEL

0725 PM SNOW AFTON 19 SE 42.53N 110.66W
03/05/2010 E3.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

SPRING CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL

0725 PM SNOW AFTON 8 SE 42.65N 110.81W
03/05/2010 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

COTTONWOOD CREEK SNOTEL

0725 PM SNOW AFTON 17 E 42.76N 110.59W
03/05/2010 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

TRIPLE PEAK SNOTEL

0725 PM SNOW BONDURANT 19 SW 42.96N 110.61W
03/05/2010 E2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

BLIND BULL SUMMIT SNOTEL

0725 PM SNOW AFTON 8 NE 42.82N 110.84W
03/05/2010 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

WILLOW CREEK SNOTEL

0726 PM SNOW KEMMERER 41.78N 110.54W
03/05/2010 M3.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 PM SNOW KEMMERER 41.78N 110.55W
03/05/2010 M4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY PUBLIC

0726 PM SNOW WAMSUTTER 41.67N 107.98W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES SWEETWATER WY PUBLIC

0727 PM SNOW POWDER RIVER 43.03N 106.98W
03/05/2010 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0727 PM SNOW POWDER RIVER SCHOOL 43.03N 106.98W
03/05/2010 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0727 PM SNOW HILAND 43.11N 107.34W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0755 PM SNOW CASPER 42.84N 106.31W
03/05/2010 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0805 PM SNOW CASPER 42.83N 106.34W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0806 PM SNOW MILLS 5NW 42.87N 106.44W
03/05/2010 M5.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0821 PM SNOW JEFFREY CITY 42.49N 107.82W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0824 PM SNOW SWEETWATER STATION 2E 42.53N 108.17W
03/05/2010 M5.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0719 AM HEAVY SNOW MILLS 42.84N 106.38W
03/06/2010 M12.50 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0719 AM HEAVY SNOW MILLS 4NW 42.88N 106.42W
03/06/2010 M7.70 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0720 AM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 8 S 42.73N 106.32W
03/06/2010 E19.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

CASPER MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

0722 AM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 9.7 WSW 42.76N 106.49W
03/06/2010 M9.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0722 AM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 2.7 NNE 42.86N 106.31W
03/06/2010 M6.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0727 AM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 22 SSE 42.57N 106.09W
03/06/2010 E16.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

RENO HILL SNOTEL

0750 AM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 7S 42.73N 106.35W
03/06/2010 M18.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 AM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 1.1 WSW 42.82N 106.34W
03/06/2010 M9.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 AM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 4.3 WSW 42.81N 106.41W
03/06/2010 M8.30 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 AM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 4.4 WSW 42.82N 106.39W
03/06/2010 M8.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1003 AM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 10SW 42.75N 106.49W
03/06/2010 M10.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

&&

$$

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KLOX [061720]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 061720
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
919 AM PST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM WATER SPOUT 2 S GOLETA 34.41N 119.83W
03/06/2010 PZZ650 CA TRAINED SPOTTER

WATERSPOUT SIGHTED BY MULTIPLE TRAINED SPOTTERS AS WELL
AS THE FAA. DISSIPATED WITHIN MINUTES.

&&

$$

FORWOOD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061717
SWODY2
SPC AC 061716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IS INTENSE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM VICINITY OF THE
LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A 60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND CONSIDERABLE
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS GREATER THAN
90-100 M.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY FORMING OVER NRN
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NWD INTO ERN NM ALONG EWD-ADVANCING
PACIFIC FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL INDUCE
NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL TX. THIS
PROCESS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE NWD/NWWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO 50S OVER WRN TX
LATE. WHEN COUPLED WITH EWD ADVECTION OF EML PLUME PRECEDING
MIDLEVEL SYSTEM...ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG.

TSTMS /LIKELY ELEVATED/ ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER ERN NM AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD DESTABILIZING AIR MASS E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS
MAY BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM ALONG PACIFIC FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING
PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WHILE MOVING INTO WRN TX. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH MAY
APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA/...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD 08/12Z.

..MEAD.. 03/06/2010

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KLBF [061654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 061654
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1054 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW NORTH PLATTE 41.15N 100.80W
03/06/2010 M1.22 INCH LINCOLN NE MESONET

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 700 AM CST WAS 1.22
INCHES. REPORT WAS FURNISHED BY A NEBRASKA RAINFALL
ASSESSMENT AND INFORMATION NETWORK OBSERVER.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061625
SWODY1
SPC AC 061624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

COLD UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING SWD OFF THE CA COAST WILL
TURN EWD TO JUST W OF LAX/SAN BY 12Z SUN. SLY FLOW ACROSS THE SWRN
STATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BOTH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL WELL TO
THE W...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED THRU THE
PERIOD AND WELL BELOW ANY SEVERE LEVELS.

STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE ONSHORE SRN CA OVERNIGHT BUT ANY
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS WWD TO THE
UPPER LOW CENTER. GIVEN WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL REGION.

COLD CORE UPPER LOW NWRN NEB WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TOP OF
SCENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AS IT MOVES EWD TO IA OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT
HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON EWD ACROSS NEB FOR A FEW LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...SPREADING EWD INTO IA AND NRN MO THIS EVENING.

..HALES/PETERS.. 03/06/2010

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KLBF [061553]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLBF 061553
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
953 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM SNOW CODY 42.94N 101.25W
03/06/2010 E2.0 INCH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHERRY COUNTY DISPATCHER REPORTED 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN
CODY AT MIDNIGHT CST...ON HER WAY TO WORK.

0530 AM SNOW 19 N RUSHVILLE 42.99N 102.47W
03/06/2010 E4.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIDAN COUNTY DEPUTY REPORTED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
IN AND NEAR WHITECLAY.

0530 AM SNOW RUSHVILLE 42.71N 102.47W
03/06/2010 M5.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIDAN COUNTY DEPUTY MEASURED 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN
RUSHVILLE.

0800 AM SNOW 9 ESE HAY SPRINGS 42.63N 102.53W
03/06/2010 M7.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE MESONET

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL WAS 7 INCHES 9 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF HAY SPRINGS. REPORT WAS FURNISHED BY A
NEBRASKA RAINFALL ASSESSMENT AND INFORMATION NETWORK
OBSERVER.

0800 AM SNOW 6 N GORDON 42.89N 102.20W
03/06/2010 M4.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 INCHES WITH LIGHT SNOW
OCCURRING AT TIME OF THIS REPORT.

0920 AM SNOW RUSHVILLE 42.71N 102.47W
03/06/2010 E10.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE PUBLIC

FRONTIER SERVICE REPORTED AN ESTIMATED 10 INCHES OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.

0925 AM SNOW HAY SPRINGS 42.68N 102.69W
03/06/2010 M5.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS 5 INCHES IN HAY SPRINGS.

0930 AM SNOW 8 S HAY SPRINGS 42.57N 102.69W
03/06/2010 E4.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS 4 INCHES 8 MILES SOUTH OF HAY
SPRINGS.

0937 AM SNOW MERRIMAN 42.92N 101.70W
03/06/2010 M3.0 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS 3 INCHES IN MERRIMAN.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [061538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 061538
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
938 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0937 AM SNOW MERRIMAN 42.92N 101.70W
03/06/2010 M3.0 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS 3 INCHES IN MERRIMAN.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [061533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 061533
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
933 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM SNOW 8 S HAY SPRINGS 42.57N 102.69W
03/06/2010 E4.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS 4 INCHES 8 MILES SOUTH OF HAY
SPRINGS.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [061528]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 061528
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
927 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM SNOW RUSHVILLE 42.71N 102.47W
03/06/2010 E10.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE PUBLIC

FRONTIER SERVICE REPORTED AN ESTIMATED 10 INCHES OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.

0925 AM SNOW HAY SPRINGS 42.68N 102.69W
03/06/2010 M5.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS 5 INCHES IN HAY SPRINGS.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [061425]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 061425
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
825 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 9 ESE HAY SPRINGS 42.63N 102.53W
03/06/2010 M7.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE MESONET

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL WAS 7 INCHES 9 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF HAY SPRINGS. REPORT WAS FURNISHED BY A
NEBRASKA RAINFALL ASSESSMENT AND INFORMATION NETWORK
OBSERVER.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [061400]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 061400
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
800 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 6 N GORDON 42.89N 102.20W
03/06/2010 M4.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 INCHES WITH LIGHT SNOW
OCCURRING AT TIME OF THIS REPORT.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061253
SWODY1
SPC AC 061251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA CST SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD
TODAY...BEFORE TURNING E TO THE SAN DIEGO AREA EARLY SUN. AT THE
SAME TIME...NEB UPR LOW...LYING BETWEEN BELTS OF STRONGER WLY FLOW
TO ITS N AND S...LIKELY WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY E TO CNTRL IA.

IN WAKE OF HI AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EAST...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST AT
LWR LVLS OVER MOST OF THE NATION. HOWEVER...CURRENT SATELLITE/ GPS
PW DATA...AND PERSISTENCE OF LEE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HI PLNS
...SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLNS...WITH PW
EXPECTED TO BE AOA 1 INCH AS FAR N AS THE RED RVR IN NW TX BY 12Z
SUN.

...MID MO VLY...
NARROW ZONE OF SFC HEATING IN DRY SLOT OF WEAKENING NEB UPR LOW WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN. ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SBCAPE
AOB 250 J/KG AND LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

...SRN GRT BASIN...
ISOLD MAINLY DIURNAL TSTMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SRN GRT BASIN
TODAY...IN AREA OF INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE AND COOLING ON NERN
FRINGE OF OFFSHORE LOW. INITIATION LIKELY WILL BE TIED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO SRN NV. VERY ISOLD ACTIVITY ALSO
MAY FORM OVER THE CA/NV SIERRA AND...PERHAPS...OVER THE SHASTAS/
SISKIYOUS. HOWEVER...WARM CONVEYOR BELT CLOUD COVER/ WEAK SFC
HEATING WILL LIMIT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THESE REGIONS.

...SRN HI PLNS...
MOISTURE RETURN AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL WAA MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD ELEVATED STORMS EARLY SUN
OVER PARTS OF NW TX.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 03/06/2010

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KCYS [061236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061236
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 AM MST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 AM SNOW LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
03/06/2010 M1.0 INCH NIOBRARA WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

STARTED SNOWING GOOD AROUND 525 AM.

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KLBF [061142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 061142
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
542 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM SNOW CODY 42.94N 101.25W
03/06/2010 E2.0 INCH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHERRY COUNTY DISPATCHER REPORTED 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN
CODY AT MIDNIGHT CST...ON HER WAY TO WORK.

0530 AM SNOW RUSHVILLE 42.71N 102.47W
03/06/2010 M5.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIDAN COUNTY DEPUTY MEASURED 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN
RUSHVILLE.

0530 AM SNOW 19 N RUSHVILLE 42.99N 102.47W
03/06/2010 E4.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIDAN COUNTY DEPUTY REPORTED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
IN AND NEAR WHITECLAY.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KCYS [061046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061046
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
346 AM MST SAT MAR 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 AM SNOW CHADRON 42.83N 103.00W
03/06/2010 M2.5 INCH DAWES NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOWFALL SINCE THE LATE EVENING.

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060929
SWOD48
SPC AC 060928

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY INTO MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A WARMER MARITIME AIRMASS TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN GULF STATES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED FAIRLY FAR SOUTH AND
MULTIPLE TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
EVENTUALLY ENHANCE CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...MODEL PREDICTABILITY IN ANY ONE SCENARIO WILL REMAIN TOO
LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 03/06/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060825
SWODY3
SPC AC 060824

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...TX/OK...

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FORCING THE STRONG
UPPER LOW/TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
BY 09/00Z. SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
TX/OK...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING IMMEDIATELY BENEATH THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAW A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS
INLAND AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS...IN EXCESS OF 50KT...FROM NCNTRL TX
INTO NRN OK. IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF 50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
SURGE NWD AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT TOWARD LOW CENTER...WHILE 60+ SFC DEW
POINTS COULD EASILY SPREAD INTO CNTRL TX PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY INDUCE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING AS
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ENABLE PARCELS ROOTED NEAR 850MB TO FREELY CONVECT...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE AIRMASS WILL BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITHIN THIS WARM
ADVECTION ZONE...PERHAPS 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE...BUT LIKELY BUOYANT
ENOUGH FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
STRONG HEATING ALONG/JUST WEST OF WIND SHIFT WILL HOWEVER GENERATE A
VERY NARROW ZONE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY ALONG WRN FRINGE OF
MOIST/WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING A SECONDARY ZONE
OF CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DRYLINE/FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST BUOYANCY
WILL BE THAT STRONG...THUS WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% PROBABILITIES FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IF STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR THEN A SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE REQUIRED.

..DARROW.. 03/06/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060552
SWODY1
SPC AC 060550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...WHICH CONTINUES TO
DIG OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL GRADUALLY MERGE INTO A STRONG
GENERALLY ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWEST MEXICO
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT THE MAIN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE/MID-LEVEL COLD CORE MAY NOT REACH NORTHERN BAJA/FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

A RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...WHILE UPPER FLOW TAKES ON AN INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE TO
THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW PROBABLY WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

FARTHER EAST...AS UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO
LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MAY BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MUCH OF THE WEST
WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE AS WELL...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...CALIFORNIA AND SRN GREAT BASIN...
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES OVER MOST AREAS APPEAR NEAR THE 10
PERCENT MINIMUM THRESHOLD...AT BEST...FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA.
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT A SUBSTANTIVE
MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW/TROUGH IS
UNLIKELY. BUT...MID-LEVEL COOLING COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE SHASTAS/SISKIYOUS AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MOISTURE RETURN INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER HEATING AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING CLOSED
LOW MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF A SUBSTANTIVE
MOISTURE RETURN...CAPE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW 500
J/KG...LIMITING THE VIGOR OF THE CONVECTION.

..KERR/STOPPKOTTE/GARNER.. 03/06/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060537
SWODY2
SPC AC 060536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NRN BAJA/SRN CA
COAST EARLY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD...WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT NEWD
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY 08/12Z. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX...WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NM TOWARD THE TX HIGH PLAINS BY
SUNRISE. FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF ERN NM/TX SOUTH
PLAINS WHERE MID 40S SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD MUCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE...HOWEVER STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND COOLING/STEEPING LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST NEAR-SFC BASED UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH EXPECTED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...FAVOR AN UPWARD EVOLVING LINE OF CONVECTION BY SUNRISE
ACROSS ERN NM. THE GREATEST RISK WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS WITH ACTIVITY NEAR THE WIND SHIFT.

..DARROW.. 03/06/2010

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KCYS [060516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KCYS 060516
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1015 PM MST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 PM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
03/05/2010 M3.8 INCH LARAMIE WY BROADCAST MEDIA

LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.31 INCH.

0920 PM SNOW GLENROCK 42.86N 105.86W
03/05/2010 E1.0 INCH CONVERSE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS A MESS

0924 PM SNOW 10 N DOUGLAS 42.90N 105.39W
03/05/2010 E2.0 INCH CONVERSE WY PUBLIC

DEPTH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

0930 PM SNOW MEDICINE BOW 41.90N 106.20W
03/05/2010 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0932 PM SNOW TORRINGTON 42.07N 104.18W
03/05/2010 E1.0 INCH GOSHEN WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

LIGHT SNOW AT THIS TIME.

1008 PM SNOW WHEATLAND 42.05N 104.96W
03/05/2010 M2.0 INCH PLATTE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

1008 PM SNOW KIMBALL 41.23N 103.66W
03/05/2010 E0.0 INCH KIMBALL NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.

1008 PM FREEZING RAIN LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
03/05/2010 E0.00 INCH NIOBRARA WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

NO SNOW ON GROUND...BUT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN
OCCURRING THIS EVENING. ROADS VERY SLICK.

1008 PM SNOW PINE BLUFFS 41.18N 104.07W
03/05/2010 M5.0 INCH LARAMIE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KCYS [060511]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 060511
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1011 PM MST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1008 PM SNOW PINE BLUFFS 41.18N 104.07W
03/05/2010 M5.0 INCH LARAMIE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

1008 PM SNOW WHEATLAND 42.05N 104.96W
03/05/2010 M2.0 INCH PLATTE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

1008 PM FREEZING RAIN LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
03/05/2010 E0.00 INCH NIOBRARA WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

NO SNOW ON GROUND...BUT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN
OCCURRING THIS EVENING. ROADS VERY SLICK.

1008 PM SNOW KIMBALL 41.23N 103.66W
03/05/2010 E0.0 INCH KIMBALL NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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