SWODY2
SPC AC 061716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IS INTENSE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM VICINITY OF THE
LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A 60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND CONSIDERABLE
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS GREATER THAN
90-100 M.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY FORMING OVER NRN
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NWD INTO ERN NM ALONG EWD-ADVANCING
PACIFIC FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL INDUCE
NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL TX. THIS
PROCESS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE NWD/NWWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO 50S OVER WRN TX
LATE. WHEN COUPLED WITH EWD ADVECTION OF EML PLUME PRECEDING
MIDLEVEL SYSTEM...ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG.
TSTMS /LIKELY ELEVATED/ ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER ERN NM AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD DESTABILIZING AIR MASS E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS
MAY BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM ALONG PACIFIC FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING
PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WHILE MOVING INTO WRN TX. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH MAY
APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA/...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD 08/12Z.
..MEAD.. 03/06/2010
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