SWODY1
SPC AC 260447
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER BELTS OF POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF PHASE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND
BEYOND. BUT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE...CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO/THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SHORT-LIVED LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS IS
PROGGED TO SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ADVANCE
THROUGH/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BENEATH A CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PROMINENT OVER WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS AND
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT... STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...WITH LOW OR
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
...ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC...
BEFORE AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS
TO EXIST FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AND THE
KEYS. HIGHER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AND EVOLVING SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
WATERS.
..KERR.. 11/26/2009
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