KCRP [040339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 040339
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1038 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0913 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 NW BEEVILLE 28.47N 97.82W
10/03/2009 M7.25 INCH BEE TX PUBLIC

MEASURED 7.25 INCHES

&&

$$

CB

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KPDT [040328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 040328
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
828 PM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM SNOW 1 SSE JOSEPH 45.34N 117.22W
10/03/2009 M4.0 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

RECEIVED 4 INCHES SNOW IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. CURRENTLY
SNOWING MODERATELY AND TEMPERATURE 32 DEGREES.

&&

$$

AA

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KCRP [040211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 040211
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
910 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM HEAVY RAIN BEEVILLE 28.41N 97.75W
10/03/2009 M6.25 INCH BEE TX BROADCAST MEDIA

MEASURED 6.25 INCHES

&&

$$

CB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040055
SWODY1
SPC AC 040051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES TWO CYCLONIC GYRES -- FIRST LIFTING
SLOWLY NWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SECOND DIGGING SWD
ACROSS ORE INTO NWRN GREAT BASIN/NRN SIERRAS REGION. S OF UPPER
RIDGE SEPARATING THESE SYSTEMS...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...FEATURING 110-130 KT 250 MB JET
CORE FROM AZ-AR FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NRN MEX AND S TX. MAIN ONE OF THESE
FEATURES APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/REINFORCED MID-UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...NOW LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN TSTM CLUSTER OVER
SRN GULF OF CA THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF TD OLAF. SEVERAL MODELS -- INCLUDING LATEST
OPERATIONAL RUC/WRF/SPECTRAL...FCST THIS FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
MEX OVERNIGHT...APCHG OR CROSSING NRN COAHUILA BY END OF PERIOD.
PROGGED TIMING/STRENGTH OF PERTURBATION VARIES CONSIDERABLY...WHICH
IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN RELATIVE UPPER AIR DATA VOID IN WHICH IT
CURRENTLY RESIDES.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM ERN NY SSWWD ACROSS CHESAPEAKE
BAY...SERN GA AND FL PANHANDLE...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY WWD OVER
COASTAL MS/AL/SERN LA...THEN DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM JUST OFFSHORE
UPPER TX COAST ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX BETWEEN COT-LRD.

...S TX...
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING WELL INLAND BUT
WEAKENING FROM JIM HOGG COUNTY NWD TO INTERSECTION WITH FRONT OVER
MCMULLEN COUNTY. MOST CONVECTION NOW IS LOCATED E OF SEA BREEZE AND
ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT...WITH GEN WEAKENING TENDENCY NOTED DURING
PAST HOUR. ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS STILL ARE POSSIBLE...GIVEN
RICHNESS OF THETAE EVEN ON PREVIOUSLY COOL SIDE OF SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL/SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MODIFIED 00Z CRP RAOB
SHOWS MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE OUTSIDE OF TSTM
CLUSTERS AND S OF FRONT FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MLCINH.

..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2009

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KCRP [040029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 040029
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
728 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NE BEEVILLE 28.46N 97.69W
10/03/2009 BEE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTING ROAD CLOSURE AT DICKERSON AND
CARR ROAD. WATER COVERING ROAD.

0722 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNE BEEVILLE 28.47N 97.72W
10/03/2009 BEE TX BROADCAST MEDIA

HIGH WATER RESCUE AT CARR RD AND CHARCO RD INTERSECTION.

&&

$$

CB

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KEWX [040015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 040015
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
715 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE ROSANKY 29.97N 97.27W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER RESCUE CURRENTLY ONGOING ON FM 535 BETWEEN
SMITHVILLE AND ROSANKY

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900131

$$

AKF

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KEWX [040006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 040006
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
706 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW BASTROP 30.04N 97.36W
10/03/2009 M2.79 INCH BASTROP TX COCORAHS

2.79 INCHES SO FAR... WITH 1.95 INCHES IN THE PAST 2
HOURS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900130

$$

AKF

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KPHI [040002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 040002
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM HAIL HAMILTON SQUARE 40.23N 74.68W
10/03/2009 E0.88 INCH MERCER NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

0635 PM HAIL BURLINGTON 40.08N 74.85W
10/03/2009 M0.25 INCH BURLINGTON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BURLINGTON.

&&

$$

GORSE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2063

ACUS11 KWNS 032256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032255
TXZ000-040030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032255Z - 040030Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR
SOUTH TX...ROUGHLY 50-70 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I-37
CORRIDOR...MAINLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MARGINAL/LIMITED
TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE RISK IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH
ISSUANCE.

SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IN VICINITY OF A
ROUGHLY WSW-ENE ORIENTED WARM FRONT. A RATHER MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS IS COMBINING WITH AROUND
100-150 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH /PER CRP AND EWD WSR-88D DERIVED DATA/
FOR AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE. WHILE SUCH A
THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...SEVERAL FACTORS
SUGGEST A DIMINISHING SEVERE RISK THEREAFTER...INCLUDING CONTINUED
STORM MERGERS/INTERFERENCE...A STEADILY INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE...AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..GUYER.. 10/03/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 27889798 27969893 28939852 29609697 28699662 27889798

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KEWX [032246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 032246
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
546 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 PM FLOOD 3 E ROSANKY 29.93N 97.25W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

FM 535 BETWEEN SMITHVILLE AND ROSANKY CLOSED DUE TO 3-4
INCHES OF WATER COVERING THE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900129

$$

CJM

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KHGX [032246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 032246
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM TORNADO 2 N GANADO 29.07N 96.51W
10/03/2009 JACKSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES AND 4 POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN. ONE TREE DOWN
ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF CORDELE ON FM 530.

&&

$$

BLOOD

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KPHI [032238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 032238
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM HAIL HAMILTON SQUARE 40.23N 74.68W
10/03/2009 E0.88 INCH MERCER NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

&&

$$

GORSE

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KEWX [032229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 032229
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
529 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 WNW ZORN 29.79N 98.06W
10/03/2009 M2.10 INCH COMAL TX CO-OP OBSERVER

2.10 INCHES OF RAIN NORTH NORTHEAST OF NEW BRAUNFELS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900128

$$

CJM

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KEWX [032227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 032227
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE SPRING BRANCH 29.89N 98.37W
10/03/2009 M2.90 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

2.90 INCHES OF RAIN OVER AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR SPRING
BRANCH.

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD TIMBERWOOD PARK 29.71N 98.48W
10/03/2009 BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN AROUND
TIMBERWOOD PARK

0444 PM HAIL MCQUEENEY 29.60N 98.05W
10/03/2009 E0.25 INCH GUADALUPE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER OBSERVED PEA SIZED HAIL AROUND 440 PM.

0450 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW NEW BRAUNFELS 29.68N 98.16W
10/03/2009 M1.27 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED 1.27 INCHES SO FAR... WITH
0.76 INCHES IN THE PAST 19 MINUTES.

0514 PM FLOOD 8 SE CEDAR CREEK 29.99N 97.42W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

LOWER REDROCK ROAD AT FM 535 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0514 PM FLOOD 6 S CEDAR CREEK 30.00N 97.51W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

FM812 AT FM672 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0514 PM FLOOD 5 SSW CEDAR CREEK 30.02N 97.54W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHVIEW RANCH ROAD AT FM 812 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0514 PM FLOOD 9 SSE CEDAR CREEK 29.97N 97.44W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

FM20 AT CEDAR HOLLOW CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900120 EWX0900121 EWX0900122 EWX0900123 EWX0900124
EWX0900125 EWX0900126 EWX0900127

$$

CJM

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KEWX [032151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 032151
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
451 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW NEW BRAUNFELS 29.68N 98.16W
10/03/2009 M1.27 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED 1.27 INCHES SO FAR... WITH
0.76 INCHES IN THE PAST 19 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900123

$$

AKF

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KEWX [032147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 032147
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
447 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM HAIL MCQUEENEY 29.60N 98.05W
10/03/2009 E0.25 INCH GUADALUPE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER OBSERVED PEA SIZED HAIL AROUND 440 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900122

$$

AKF

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KEWX [032057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 032057
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
357 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD TIMBERWOOD PARK 29.71N 98.48W
10/03/2009 BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN AROUND
TIMBERWOOD PARK

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900121

$$

AKF

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KEWX [032041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 032041
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE SPRING BRANCH 29.89N 98.37W
10/03/2009 M2.90 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

2.90 INCHES OF RAIN OVER AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR SPRING
BRANCH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900120

$$

CJM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2062

ACUS11 KWNS 031938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031938
TXZ000-032045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX TO THE UPR TX CST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031938Z - 032045Z

19Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WRMFNT NEAR KCOT-NORTH OF KVCT-SOUTH OF
KGLS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ALONG/N OF THE FRONT SINCE
LATE MORNING. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND N/NE WITH TIME AS SSWLY H85-H7
WIND FIELDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A MID-LVL SPEED MAX OVER
SWRN TX. THIS EXPANSION WILL ESPECIALLY BE NOTABLE FROM CNTRL INTO
SERN TX...ALONG THE NRN EDGE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT/ CAPPING.

TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM THE KAUS REGION ENEWD INTO SERN TX WILL LIKELY
BE ROOTED A FEW HUNDRED METERS ABOVE THE SFC PER LATEST RUC
SOUNDINGS. ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED CLOSER TO THE WRMFNT
ALONG THE UPR TX CST MAY ROOT LOWER TO THE SFC. IF THIS
OCCURS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH ISOLD DMGG WINDS POSSIBLE. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE LLVL SELYS ARE SOMEWHAT ANEMIC...RESULTING
IN WEAK 0-1KM SRH.

..RACY.. 10/03/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 28999700 29489837 29989939 30969871 30869759 30329672
29749606 28969523 28599521 28389560 28649620 28999700

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031929
SWODY1
SPC AC 031925

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

TWO CHANGES ARE MADE FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK. THE FIRST IS TO EXTEND THE
SEE TEXT AREA FURTHER EAST TO THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON AREA ADDING A 2
PERCENT TORNADO FOR THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. THE WSR-88D VWP OUT OF
HOUSTON SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTING SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD ROTATE MOVING EWD ALONG A STRONG GRADIENT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND AREA TO BE ADJUSTED IS IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. MOVED THE SEE TEXT CORRIDOR SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST TO ALIGN BETTER WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ANALYZED
BY THE LATEST RUC MODEL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR ERN PA...NJ...SE NY AND PARTS OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ON THE NEW YORK CITY/UPTON WSR-88D
VWP SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS COULD ROTATE AND CONTAIN A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES.. 10/03/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009/

...NERN STATES...
WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAXIMA ROTATING RAPIDLY
ENEWD AROUND BASE OF LARGER UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE UPPER OH RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK
SURFACE LOW EVOLVING NEAR LEE TROUGH OVER ERN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
IMPULSE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH JUST WEST
OF THIS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY / MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG /. REGION WILL BE SKIRTED BY
EJECTING IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
NEAR THE LEE TROUGH FROM FAR NERN MD ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO ERN NY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HODOGRAPHS UNDER STRONG
WSWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME BOWING/
ORGANIZATION...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED UPDRAFT ROTATION...WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE
RATES EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OFF THE ATLANTIC WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH
WILL SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND... HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

...TX...
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIP OF TX SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH SECONDARY FRONT PERSISTING ALONG
THE RED RIVER. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR SRN
TX WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH CAPPING MAY PRECLUDE EWD
MOVING...ELEVATED STORMS OVER SRN/CENTRAL TX FROM TAPPING THIS
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION WITH PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY. MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL TX THROUGH TODAY...WITH INCREASED WAA AND ELEVATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN TX AND SRN
OK. SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY EVOLVE AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DEEP
MOISTURE/WEAK LAPSE RATES.

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KTBW [031831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 031831
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
231 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM FUNNEL CLOUD CAPTIVA 26.52N 82.19W
10/03/2009 LEE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER OBSERVED A FUNNEL CLOUD NORTH OF CAPTIVA ISLAND

&&

$$

JOHNSON

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031654
SWODY2
SPC AC 031650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NORTH TX WITH A WARM SECTOR LOCATED FROM
THE TX HILL COUNTRY EWD INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
...MODERATE INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL AND SE TX SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM. ETA-KF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN SE TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT AND 30-40 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB. THIS ALONG WITH ABOUT 25 KT
AT 850 MB SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE
ACROSS SE TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE THREAT. FOR
THESE REASONS...ADDED A 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY IN SE TX.

..BROYLES.. 10/03/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031553
SWODY1
SPC AC 031549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN STATES...
WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAXIMA ROTATING RAPIDLY
ENEWD AROUND BASE OF LARGER UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE UPPER OH RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK
SURFACE LOW EVOLVING NEAR LEE TROUGH OVER ERN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
IMPULSE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH JUST WEST
OF THIS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY / MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG /. REGION WILL BE SKIRTED BY
EJECTING IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
NEAR THE LEE TROUGH FROM FAR NERN MD ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO ERN NY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HODOGRAPHS UNDER STRONG
WSWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME BOWING/
ORGANIZATION...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED UPDRAFT ROTATION...WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE
RATES EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OFF THE ATLANTIC WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH
WILL SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND... HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

...TX...
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIP OF TX SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH SECONDARY FRONT PERSISTING ALONG
THE RED RIVER. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR SRN
TX WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH CAPPING MAY PRECLUDE EWD
MOVING...ELEVATED STORMS OVER SRN/CENTRAL TX FROM TAPPING THIS
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION WITH PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY. MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL TX THROUGH TODAY...WITH INCREASED WAA AND ELEVATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN TX AND SRN
OK. SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY EVOLVE AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DEEP
MOISTURE/WEAK LAPSE RATES.

..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 10/03/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031247
SWODY1
SPC AC 031244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN TODAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A LARGE CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER ONE DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. GREAT LAKES CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO
SRN ONTARIO WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER WA WILL DROP SWD...REACHING NRN
CA LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN OCCLUDED
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH CNTRL NY FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA INTO THE WRN
CAROLINAS...SERN STATES THEN WWD INTO S TX WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.

...NERN STATES...

UPPER JET MAX LOCATED IN BASE OF UPPER LOW ACROSS KY AND WV WILL
ROTATE NEWD INDUCING A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ON THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN THE FRONT ADVANCING
EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE LATER
TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER
NWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AS WELL AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
LIFTING NWD JUST OFF THE NC COAST. THE MOIST PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EWD AS OH VALLEY IMPULSE ROTATES NEWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER TROUGH. CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME ALONG LOW LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND TRAIN
NWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD ONGOING CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AND DUE
PRIMARILY TO A MODEST INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER SRN
NEW ENGLAND...SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. MLCAPE WILL BE
GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. THE LARGER 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE
WINDS ARE BACKED TO ELY. MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL
EXIST FARTHER SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR BUT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED UPDRAFT
ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR BEHIND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND EAST OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS ERN PA...SERN NY AND NJ. HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON
THE EWD ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 50
KT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE AND DEVELOP
BOWING STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ONLY LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

...S TX...

ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF STG...PERHAPS MRGL SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/S TX EARLY IN PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC OCCURS N OF SFC FRONT...IN
REGIME OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR ALOFT. PRIMARY FACTOR PRECLUDING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM
INCLUDE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL
LIMIT BUOYANCY AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGER HAIL.

MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE STREAMING OFF PACIFIC TS OLAF
MAY SOMEWHAT RESTRAIN DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN AND ALONG WARM SIDE OF
FRONTAL ZONE DURING AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY WILL YIELD WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEST DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS BOUNDARY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL/SFC-BASED/DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONTAL ZONE. ANY STG-SVR GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR IN
AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE...WHILE HAIL SIZE SHOULD BE MRGL SVR...AT
BEST...ANYWHERE OVER REGION.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 10/03/2009

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KKEY [031120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 031120
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
719 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 AM WATER SPOUT 1 S KEY WEST 24.54N 81.76W
10/02/2009 GMZ054 FL SHIP

A COMMERCIAL FISHERMAN REPORTED A WATER SPOUT JUST SOUTH
OF KEY WEST. THE WATER SPOUT DISSIPATED AS IT DRIFTED
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARDS KEY WEST. THE DURATION OF THE
WATER SPOUT WAS LESS THAN 10 MINUTES.

&&

$$

04

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030855
SWOD48
SPC AC 030855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WHILE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...SMALLER-SCALE -- BUT SIGNIFICANT -- DIFFERENCES ARE
APPARENT AS EARLY AS DAY 4 /TUE. OCT. 6/. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAY
4...THEY DIFFER CONSIDERABLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THOUGH SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY EXIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD FROM TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...THREAT DOES NOT
WARRANT INCLUSION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.

BEYOND DAY 4...AND SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED TO THE
SRN U.S. -- FROM W TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...AS A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY LINGERS ACROSS THIS
REGION. AGAIN HOWEVER...MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT
EVIDENT ATTM.

..GOSS.. 10/03/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030748
SWODY3
SPC AC 030746

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A LEE LOW OVER ERN CO IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A SECOND AREA
OF CYCLOGENESIS EVOLVES OVER THE MID MO VALLEY. WITH TIME...THIS
NRN LOW WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE...SHIFTING ENEWD
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT DRIVES SEWD
ACROSS KS/OK INTO MO/AR/N TX THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS...
NWD RETURN OF A HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER INTO N TX/SRN OK IS
FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS A
LINGERING SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS TX TO SHIFT NWD WITH TIME.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF ERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING/MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE FROM WRN OK SWD. THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
N OF THIS REGION...SUBTLE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE FAST WSWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS. WHILE
CONVECTION FROM NRN OK NWD SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF N TX AND POSSIBLY INTO
SWRN OK.

WITH 50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION
ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS
-- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. DURING THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD TAKE ON MORE OF A LINEAR CONFIGURATION INVOF THE SEWD-MOVING
COLD FRONT...WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
WRN AR/NERN AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/03/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030545
SWODY2
SPC AC 030544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT NWD/NEWD WITH TIME...MOVING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A LINGERING COLD FRONT ACROSS TX AND THE WRN AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION WILL RETREAT NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND NRN LA...AS LOW-LEVEL SLYS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LARGE
WRN UPPER LOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WARM
ADVECTION NEAR AND N OF THE RETREATING FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS TX AND INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND PERHAPS AS
FAR N AS KS/NEB LATE. HOWEVER...WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR S OF THE
RETREATING FRONT AND WEAK/ELEVATED INSTABILITY FARTHER N...SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.

A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEW
ENGLAND...AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT-WAVE FEATURE ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW. MEAGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA
PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 10/03/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030543
SWODY1
SPC AC 030540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN -- CHARACTERIZED BY CLOSED CYCLONES --
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...BUT WITH INCREASING
RELATIVE EMPHASIS TOWARD WRN HEIGHT FALLS. MID-UPPER VORTEX NOW
CENTERED INVOF WI/IL BORDER IS FCST TO CONTINUE FILLING AND TO PIVOT
NNEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OVER NRN ONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW TRAILING SWD ACROSS WRN IL WILL LIFT ENEWD UP OH VALLEY AND
ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE
WITH TIME...IT SHOULD TIGHTEN HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER MID-ATLANTIC
REGION DURING DAY. MEANWHILE...SECOND UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN BC -- WILL DIG SWD ACROSS INTERIOR
PACIFIC NW...DEEPENING AND REACHING NRN GREAT BASIN BY 4/12Z.

AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING FROM UPPER MIDWEST CYCLONE IS STALLED
ACROSS EXTREME NWRN GULF AND PORTIONS DEEP S TX. WRN SEGMENT OF
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND RETREAT NWD ACROSS S TX
AS WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT PERIOD...DELAYED/RESHAPED ON MESOSCALE BY
AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO ITS N. ERN FRONTAL SEGMENT IS FCST TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PERIOD.

...MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...
CONDITIONAL/MULTIMODAL SVR THREAT EXISTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER
THIS REGION...IN PARALLEL ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...JUXTAPOSED
WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING OH VALLEY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DURING MOST OF LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION INDICATE NEARLY
UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...WITH AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY.
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED -- E.G. 40-55 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES THAT VARY WITH AMOUNT/DEPTH OF CAPE. SLGT BACKING
OF SFC FLOW IN AND E OF CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTRIBUTE MOIST
ADVECTION/TRANSPORT AS WELL AS SOME ENLARGEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS. ATTM...CONCERNS ABOUT EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION BEHIND
MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP PRECLUDE UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
SUFFICIENT FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

...S AND CENTRAL TX...
ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF STG...PERHAPS MRGL SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/S TX EARLY IN PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC OCCURS N OF SFC FRONT...IN
REGIME OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR ALOFT. THIS REPRESENTS EXTENSION OF REGIME FROM END OF PRIOR
PERIOD...FOR WHICH MRGL UNCONDITIONAL HAIL PROBABILITIES ALREADY ARE
OUTLOOKED. PRIMARY FACTORS PRECLUDING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM
INCLUDE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POSITION OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND INTENSIFICATION...AS WELL AS PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY
WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY AND POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER HAIL.

MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE STREAMING OFF PACIFIC TS OLAF
MAY SOMEWHAT RESTRAIN DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN AND ALONG WARM SIDE OF
FRONTAL ZONE DURING AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY WILL YIELD WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS
BOUNDARY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL/SFC-BASED/DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...AND BENEATH SRN RIM OF UPPER LEVEL JET MAX TO
ENHANCE CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. ANY STG-SVR GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR IN AND S
OF FRONTAL ZONE...WHILE HAIL SIZE SHOULD BE MRGL SVR...AT
BEST...ANYWHERE OVER REGION.

..EDWARDS/GARNER.. 10/03/2009

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