KLCH [132027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 132027
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
327 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM HAIL ALEXANDRIA 31.29N 92.46W
09/13/2007 M0.25 INCH RAPIDES LA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA-SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY RED CROSS STAFF IN ALEXANDRIA.
LASTED SEVERAL MINUTES.

&&

$$

TMOGGED

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KLCH [132009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 132009
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM FLASH FLOOD FANNETT 29.93N 94.25W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX NWS STORM SURVEY

WATER WAS REPORTED IN SOME HOMES IN FANNETT.

&&

$$

RUA

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KCHS [132000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 132000
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.08N 81.10W
09/13/2007 CHATHAM GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

INTERSECTIONS OF GWYNNETT AND STILES STREETS...AND

GWYNNETT AND ATKINSON STREETS...CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

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KMPX [131955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMPX 131955
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
255 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0847 AM HAIL BIG LAKE 45.34N 93.75W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH SHERBURNE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0855 AM HAIL COKATO 45.08N 94.19W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0940 AM HAIL RICHFIELD 44.88N 93.28W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1223 PM HAIL 5 N MAIDEN ROCK 44.64N 92.31W
09/13/2007 E1.25 INCH PIERCE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

1237 PM HAIL ZUMBROTA 44.29N 92.67W
09/13/2007 E0.88 INCH GOODHUE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0103 PM HAIL EAU CLAIRE 44.82N 91.49W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH EAU CLAIRE WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

0110 PM HAIL PEPIN 44.44N 92.15W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH PEPIN WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

JPR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131940
SWODY1
SPC AC 131938

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN LA AND SW
MS...

..LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF
ALEXANDRIA LA WITH RAINBAND MAINLY IN THE ERN QUADRANT. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MS EXTENDING SEWD INTO
SRN AL WITH ANOTHER BAND LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SSEWD
ACROSS SE LA. THE INNER BAND IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN LA EXTENDING SWD
INTO SCNTRL LA. LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGEST WITH THE INNER
RAINBAND AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHERE SFC WINDS ARE BACKED
AND SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS PRESENT. AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN LA AND SW MS...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A
TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS IN THE INNER BANDS OF HUMBERTO.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION.

..TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE/FAR SW KS...
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN
KS INTO FAR SE CO. A SFC LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN OK PANHANDLE
WITH A MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F EXTENDING NNEWD FROM WEST
TX INTO SW KS. A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION AND CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT THAT
STRONG...LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME VERY STEEP FROM NE NM EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE. THIS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.

..UPPER MIDWEST...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO SE MN AND NRN IA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN WRN WI. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SWWD ACROSS FAR SE MN AND NE IA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 90 KT
MID-LEVEL JET OVER NE MN AND SRN ONTARIO. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN WI SWWD INTO NE
IA.

.BROYLES.. 09/13/2007

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KCHS [131916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 131916
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
316 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.08N 81.10W
09/13/2007 CHATHAM GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER ON DELANO STREET...WINBURN STREET...HASTINGS
STREET...CORNWALL STREET...INTERSECTION OF GWYNNETT AND
STILES STREETS.

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1965

ACUS11 KWNS 131856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131856
MSZ000-LAZ000-132100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL LA INTO SW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131856Z - 132100Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT.

REMNANT LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF HUMBERTO IS NOW EAST
NORTHEAST OF FORT POLK...AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS ALEXANDRIA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...BEFORE CONTINUING TOWARD AREAS
NEAR/NORTHWEST OF NATCHEZ MS BY 14/00Z. SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT...LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR STILL APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE A RISK FOR TORNADOES
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS WHERE CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH A
DRY SLOT IS ALLOWING INCREASING HEATING OF A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. NEW CONVECTION ALREADY
APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING IN AN ARCING
BAND FROM LAFAYETTE INTO THE VICINITY OF ALEXANDRIA. AND...ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT COULD ACCOMPANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.KERR.. 09/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

31299244 31769209 31889143 31629105 30609099 30159149
30179190 30589214 30869222 31079230

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KARX [131848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 131848
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
146 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HAIL 3 N MAZEPPA 44.32N 92.54W
09/13/2007 E0.88 INCH WABASHA MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

BROOKS

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KMPX [131843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 131843
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
142 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0103 PM HAIL SW EAU CLAIRE 44.82N 91.49W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH EAU CLAIRE WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

0110 PM HAIL PEPIN 44.44N 92.15W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH PEPIN WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

JPR

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KARX [131828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 131828
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
128 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0126 PM HAIL THEILMAN 44.30N 92.20W
09/13/2007 E1.00 INCH WABASHA MN CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

04

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KARX [131821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 131821
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
121 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM HAIL 5 NW BEAR VALLEY 44.20N 92.11W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH WABASHA MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

04

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KARX [131819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 131819
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
119 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HAIL 7 S LAKE CITY 44.35N 92.28W
09/13/2007 M0.50 INCH WABASHA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BROOKS

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KMPX [131742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 131742
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1237 PM HAIL ZUMBROTA 44.29N 92.67W
09/13/2007 E0.88 INCH GOODHUE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JPR

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KLCH [131739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 131739
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1112 AM FLASH FLOOD DERIDDER 30.85N 93.29W
09/13/2007 BEAUREGARD LA BROADCAST MEDIA

HIGHWAY 171 JUST NORTH OF DERIDDER IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
WATER. OTHER NUMEROUS ROADS IN THE CITY OF DERIDDER ARE
BEING COVERED BY WATER.

&&

$$

RUA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131737
SWODY2
SPC AC 131736

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE OH...NW PA
AND WRN NY...

..NE OH/NW PA AND WRN NY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY...SFC
DEWPOINTS FROM 45 TO 55 F SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING...STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
LAKE ERIE AND NRN OH MOVING SEWD INTO ERN OH...NWRN PA AND WRN NY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SECONDARY AXIS OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDING SWD FROM NRN NY INTO CNTRL PA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ESPECIALLY
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS MAY PROMOTE A HAIL
POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..TN VALLEY...
THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BE IN CNTRL MS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER ACROSS NRN MS AND AL WITH
THE RAINBANDS MOVING NEWD INTO TN AND GA BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY SUGGEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON.

..NE NM/TX PANHANDLE...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM NE NM EXTENDING SEWD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 55 TO 60 F RANGE AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAR NE NM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS MAY SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH THE
THREAT STAYING ISOLATED AND MARGINAL.

.BROYLES.. 09/13/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE OH...NW PA
AND WRN NY...

..NE OH/NW PA AND WRN NY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY...SFC
DEWPOINTS FROM 45 TO 55 F SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING...STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
LAKE ERIE AND NRN OH MOVING SEWD INTO ERN OH...NWRN PA AND WRN NY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SECONDARY AXIS OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDING SWD FROM NRN NY INTO CNTRL PA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ESPECIALLY
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS MAY PROMOTE A HAIL
POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..TN VALLEY...
THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BE IN CNTRL MS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER ACROSS NRN MS AND AL WITH
THE RAINBANDS MOVING NEWD INTO TN AND GA BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY SUGGEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON.

..NE NM/TX PANHANDLE...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM NE NM EXTENDING SEWD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 55 TO 60 F RANGE AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAR NE NM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS MAY SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH THE
THREAT STAYING ISOLATED AND MARGINAL.

.BROYLES.. 09/13/2007

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KMPX [131731]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 131731
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1223 PM HAIL 5 N MAIDEN ROCK 44.64N 92.31W
09/13/2007 E1.25 INCH PIERCE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JPR

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KMPX [131623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 131623
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1123 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM HAIL RICHFIELD 44.88N 93.28W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JPR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131609
SWODY1
SPC AC 131606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF LOWER MS VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY TO WRN GREAT
LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO
NWRN KS WILL PUSH SEWD TO A POSITION FROM LH TO NRN OK LATER
TONIGHT.

T.S. HUMBERTO CURRENTLY SW LA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TREND
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY.

..LOWER MS VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH T.S. HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE WIND PROFILES
IN ADVANCE OF CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING LOW
TOPPED STORMS THRU TONIGHT. AS HIGH THETAE AIR SPREADS FURTHER
INLAND ACROSS SRN MS...AND SOME HEATING OCCURS...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO SUPPORT STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS SERN
LA/SRN MS TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT INTO TONIGHT.

..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD THRU CENTRAL
KS INTO OK PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW PULSE STORMS INCLUDING
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

.HALES/RACY.. 09/13/2007

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KFSD [131554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 131554
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1053 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 AM HAIL 5 S CRAIG 42.82N 96.31W
09/13/2007 E1.00 INCH PLYMOUTH IA PUBLIC

0555 AM HAIL 3 NE LE MARS 42.82N 96.13W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH PLYMOUTH IA PUBLIC

0806 AM HAIL 8 SW JACKSON 43.55N 95.12W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH JACKSON MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

JC

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KCAE [131527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 131527
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1127 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW GASTON 33.80N 81.15W
09/12/2007 LEXINGTON SC NWS STORM SURVEY

A MICROBURST MOVED ACROSS A FIELD THROUGH A MOBILE HOME
COMMUNITY AND TOOK DOWN A COUPLE OF TREES, DID MINOR
DAMAGE TO THE SKIRTING AROUND A DOZEN MOBILE HOMES, AND
LIFTED A CARPORT OFF ITS FOUNDATION AND ROLLED ABOUT 40
YARDS. THE CARPORT WAS OPEN TO THE FRONT SIDE AND CLOSED
ON THE SIDES AND BACK.

&&

$$

SJN

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 669

WWUS20 KWNS 131503
SEL9
SPC WW 131503
LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-131500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 669 ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

LOUISIANA
TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

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KLCH [131452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 131452
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
952 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0949 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 SE MERRYVILLE 30.69N 93.46W
09/13/2007 BEAUREGARD LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 110 BETWEEN MERRYVILLE AND SINGER CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

FNAVEJAR

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KDLH [131441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 131441
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
941 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HAIL YELLOWLAKE 45.94N 92.38W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ID BU068

&&

$$

KMD

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KMPX [131416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 131416
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
916 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 AM HAIL COKATO 45.08N 94.19W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0847 AM HAIL BIG LAKE 45.34N 93.75W
09/13/2007 E0.75 INCH SHERBURNE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JPR

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KLCH [131318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 131318
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
818 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 AM HURRICANE BRIDGE CITY 30.03N 93.85W
09/13/2007 ORANGE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL *** CARPORT COLLAPSED ONTO AN INDIVIDUAL.
TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [131309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLCH 131309
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
809 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1253 AM HURRICANE 3 S CENTRAL GARDENS 29.95N 94.02W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX ASOS

KBPT ASOS MEASURED 28 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

1257 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED WINDS OF 34 MPH GUSTING TO 43
MPH.

0135 AM HURRICANE 2 NW SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.71N 94.07W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX MESONET

MCFADDEN WILDLIFE REFUGE RAWS SITE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31
MPH WITH A GUST TO 48 MPH.

0140 AM HURRICANE 3 SW HAMSHIRE 29.83N 94.35W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

KFDM-TV REPORTED A 58 MPH WIND GUST NEAR WINNIE.

0200 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH
GUSTING TO 62 MPH.

0229 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK STATION SRST2 REPORTED A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 85 MPH.

0230 AM HURRICANE SABINE PASS 29.73N 93.89W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SABINE PASS NOS GAGE MEASURED WIND GUST TO 51 MPH.

0235 AM HURRICANE 2 NW SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.71N 94.07W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX MESONET

MCFADDEN WILDLIFE REFUGE RAWS SITE MEASURED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH A GUST TO 75 MPH.

0300 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 MPH
GUSTING TO 71 MPH.

0313 AM HURRICANE 3 S CENTRAL GARDENS 29.95N 94.02W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX ASOS

KBPT ASOS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH GUSTING TO
64 MPH.

0315 AM HURRICANE NEDERLAND 29.97N 94.00W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY.

0348 AM HURRICANE 2 S CAMERON 29.77N 93.30W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALCASIEU PASS NOS TIDAL GAGE MEASURED PEAK SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 38 MPH WITH PEAK WIND GUST OF 43 MPH.

0357 AM HURRICANE BEAUMONT 30.09N 94.14W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX ASOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 84 MPH.

0359 AM HURRICANE 5 S BEAUMONT 30.02N 94.14W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WIND GUST TO 74 MPH AT ODOM ACADEMY IN SOUTH BEAUMONT.
REPORTED BY KFDM-TV.

0400 AM HURRICANE PORT ARTHUR 29.90N 93.93W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WITH STREETS FLOODED.

0406 AM HURRICANE SABINE PASS 29.73N 93.89W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SABINE PASS NOS TIDAL GAGE MEASURED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 49 MPH WITH PEAK WIND GUST OF 67 MPH.

0430 AM HURRICANE PORT ARTHUR 29.90N 93.93W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PORTION OF APARTMENT COMPLEX ROOF BLOWN OFF AND LANDED ON
FOUR VEHICLES.

0536 AM HURRICANE VINTON 30.20N 93.58W
09/13/2007 CALCASIEU LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH TREES DOWN
ACROSS HIGHWAY 109. REPORTED BY VINTON PD.

0550 AM FLASH FLOOD VIDOR 30.13N 94.00W
09/13/2007 ORANGE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

I-10 WESTBOUND CLOSED AT OLD HWY 90 IN VIDOR DUE TO
FLOODING. REPORTED BY VIDOR PD.

0620 AM HURRICANE PORT ARTHUR 29.90N 93.93W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITH 75000 PEOPLE
WITHOUT POWER ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY. REPORTED BY
KFDM-TV.

0730 AM HURRICANE MAURICEVILLE 30.22N 93.87W
09/13/2007 ORANGE TX NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THE AREA.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KJAX [131309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 131309
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
908 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NNW GUANA RIVER STATE 30.16N 81.38W
09/12/2007 ST. JOHNS FL PUBLIC

SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AND BUNKERS WASHED OUT DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN AT THE TPC SAWGRASS GOLF COURSE. TIME IS
ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

$$

JHESS

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KLCH [131308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 131308
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
808 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HURRICANE MAURICEVILLE 30.22N 93.87W
09/13/2007 ORANGE TX NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THE AREA.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [131307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 131307
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
806 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0348 AM HURRICANE 2 S CAMERON 29.77N 93.30W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALCASIEU PASS NOS TIDAL GAGE MEASURED PEAK SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 38 MPH WITH PEAK WIND GUST OF 43 MPH.

0406 AM HURRICANE SABINE PASS 29.73N 93.89W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SABINE PASS NOS TIDAL GAGE MEASURED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 49 MPH WITH PEAK WIND GUST OF 67 MPH.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KJAX [131258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 131258
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
857 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW JACKSONVILLE BEAC 30.23N 81.40W
09/12/2007 ST. JOHNS FL PUBLIC

MARSH LANDING COUNTRY CLUB REPORTED A COUPLE OF TREES
DOWN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS DOWN ALONG THE GOLF
COURSE. TIME IS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

$$

JHESS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131238
SWODY1
SPC AC 131236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

..SYNOPSIS...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF BROAD CNTRL/ERN CANADIAN TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY E/SE FROM
MB/ND INTO CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE UPR GRT LKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WEAKER SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER W TX SHOULD
ACCELERATE E/SE TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AS REMNANTS OF HRCN HUMBERTO
LIFT NE INTO MS.

STRONG COLD FRONT WITH NRN PLNS SYSTEM SHOULD SURGE S ACROSS THE
PLNS AND E/SE INTO THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY. THE FRONT SHOULD
OVERTAKE LEE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS AND REACH THE SRN PLNS
EARLY FRIDAY.

..LA/MS...
REMNANTS OF HRCN HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY N/NE ACROSS
CNTRL LA TODAY AND INTO MS TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHIELD IN NE QUADRANT
OF SYSTEM HAS ALREADY SPREAD BEYOND WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT ORIENTED
ROUGHLY WSW-ENE ACROSS FAR SRN LA AND MS. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE DAY AND MODEST SFC HEATING SLIGHTLY
DESTABILIZES INFLOW ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO
EXPAND SLOWLY ENE FROM S CNTRL LA INTO SE LA AND PERHAPS PARTS OF
SRN MS /REF MCD 1964/.

LATER TONIGHT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR REINTENSIFICATION OF
REMNANT TROPICAL CIRCULATION AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
STRENGTHENING SWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW OVERSPREADING THE LWR MS VLY.
ASSOCIATED INTENSIFICATION OF VERY MOIST LLJ COULD FOSTER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LVL ROTATION WITH EMBEDDED STORMS/SHOWERS IN ERN
QUADRANT OF SYSTEM. ANY SUSTAINED ACTIVITY IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT
COULD POSE A RENEWED THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

..WRN/CNTRL KS INTO OK PANHANDLE...
COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI...SW INTO SE NEB AND CNTRL KS
BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN AXIS OF
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LEE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL/SW KS. ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
/ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPORAL STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW TO MID LVL
FLOW/ MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SFC OR NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS
ALONG THE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG.
NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH 25-30
KT DEEP NW SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. GIVEN
FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG THE TROUGH...THESE COULD MERGE INTO A SMALL
CLUSTER OR TWO AND YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND OR MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

..NW KS/NE CO/SW NEB EARLY FRIDAY...
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NW KS...NE CO AND SW NEB. HERE...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON SW FRINGE OF AMPLIFYING UPR
TROUGH. DEPENDING UPON THE ALTITUDE AND QUALITY OF THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE MAY EVOLVE
TO YIELD A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL.

.CORFIDI/GUYER.. 09/13/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1964

ACUS11 KWNS 131214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131213
LAZ000-131415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 669...

VALID 131213Z - 131415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 669 CONTINUES.

SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH HUMBERTO IS FCST TO SHIFT GENERALLY
EWD ACROSS SRN LA THROUGH 17Z...REMAINING MOSTLY BETWEEN I-10 AREA
AND COASTLINE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY. TO REFLECT THIS TREND...NEW OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE
REQUIRED BEFORE SCHEDULED 15Z EXPIRATION OF WW 669.

THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MOST CONCENTRATED IN AND NEAR PRIMARY OUTER
BAND THAT WAS LOCATED FROM ACADIA/WRN LAFAYETTE/VERMILION PARISHES
SSEWD OVER GULF AS OF 1145Z. SEVERAL MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH SMALL BUT
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL HORIZONTAL SHEAR COUPLETS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
DURING LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BAND AND WITH RELATIVELY
DISCRETE CELLS JUST TO ITS E. IN ADDITION...INNER BANDING
STRUCTURES ARE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
CAMERON/JEFF DAVIS PARISHES ATTM...IN ENVIRONMENT OF STG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR THAT ALSO WILL FAVOR MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY FOR
ANY RELATIVELY DISTINCT OR DISCRETE CELLS. PRIND FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EARLIER SAMPLED BY LCH VWP -- AND NOW INDICATED
E OF THERE TOWARD LFT -- WILL SPREAD EWD AND NEWD ACROSS MORE OF
SRN/CENTRAL LA. NRN/INLAND EXTENT OF NEAR-TERM SUPERCELL/TORNADO
RISK...HOWEVER...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DEFINED LOOSELY BY EXPANSIVE
PRECIP SHIELD AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL REMNANT OVER CENTRAL LA...WHICH
WILL RESTRICT DESTABILIZATION.

.EDWARDS.. 09/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

30389324 30519317 30609279 30559136 30369096 30199066
29929047 29469035 29169025 29059090 29339134 29319119
29519130 29529154 29639155 29649163 29589173 29499180
29499187 29569205 29589216 29529225 29589267 29819274
30179288 30269306

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1963

ACUS11 KWNS 131142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131141
LAZ000-TXZ000-131445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN LA...SMALL PART OF SE TX NEAR
SABINE RIVER.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 131141Z - 131445Z

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS FCST TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING INLAND THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING OVER LA. RAIN
RATES 2-4 INCHES/HOUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR...WITH HAZARD
CONCENTRATED MOST ACUTELY IN TWO REGIMES...
1. PRIMARY OUTER BAND...LOCATED FROM ACADIA/VERMILION PARISHES SSEWD
OVER GULF AS OF 1115Z. THIS BAND IS EXPANDING SOMEWHAT LATERALLY
AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS ARA/LFT AREAS AND SRN PORTION I-49 DURING
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BRINGING ASSOCIATED RAIN MAX ACROSS PORTIONS
EVANGELINE/ST. LANDRY/LAFAYETTE/ST. MARTIN/IBERIA PARISHES THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. MERGING OF CELLS...AND TRAINING OF TSTMS ALONG AXIS OF
SLOWLY TRANSLATING BAND...WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN HAZARD BY
PROLONGING ITS DURATION.
2. INNER CORE REGION WITHIN ABOUT 25 NW THROUGH 60 ENE OF
CENTER...WHERE COMBINATION OF MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...RICH
MOISTURE AND VERY EFFICIENT WARM-CLOUD PROCESSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP GENERATOR.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED OVER SWRN
SEMICIRCLE OF HUMBERTO GIVEN LOWER-THETAE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
BEING ENTRAINED INTO THAT SECTOR...AND RELATED LACK OF CONVECTION.
AS CENTER MOVES NEWD INTO SWRN LA...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD MOVE
NEWD OUT OF SE TX.

REF WW 669 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS REGARDING
SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHICH DOES NOT NECESSARILY COVER SAME
AREAS AS HEAVY RAIN HAZARD. REF NHC BULLETINS -- E.G. WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST AND TROPICAL
WATCHES/WARNINGS ON HUMBERTO.

.EDWARDS.. 09/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

29539245 29649279 30309305 30459389 31249334 31479171
30729160 29059076 29249125 29429121 29519154 29579170
29439183 29589207

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KLCH [131125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 131125
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 AM HURRICANE PORT ARTHUR 29.90N 93.93W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITH 75000 PEOPLE
WITHOUT POWER ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY. REPORTED BY
KFDM-TV.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [131100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 131100
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
600 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM FLASH FLOOD VIDOR 30.13N 94.00W
09/13/2007 ORANGE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

I-10 WESTBOUND CLOSED AT OLD HWY 90 IN VIDOR DUE TO
FLOODING. REPORTED BY VIDOR PD.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [131036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 131036
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
536 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 AM HURRICANE VINTON 30.20N 93.58W
09/13/2007 CALCASIEU LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH TREES DOWN
ACROSS HIGHWAY 109. REPORTED BY VINTON PD.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [131022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 131022
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
522 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0359 AM HURRICANE 5 S BEAUMONT 30.02N 94.14W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WIND GUST TO 74 MPH AT ODOM ACADEMY IN SOUTH BEAUMONT.
REPORTED BY KFDM-TV.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [130950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 130950
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
450 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0357 AM HURRICANE BEAUMONT 30.09N 94.14W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX ASOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 84 MPH.

&&

$$

MMARCOTT

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KLCH [130944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 130944
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
444 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 AM HURRICANE PORT ARTHUR 29.90N 93.93W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PORTION OF APARTMENT COMPLEX ROOF BLOWN OFF AND LANDED ON
FOUR VEHICLES.

&&

$$

MMARCOTT

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130905
SWOD48
SPC AC 130905

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0405 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

..DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND THE RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL/SWRN STATES ARE BOTH FORECAST
TO SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING -- AND ASSOCIATED
ELY/ENELY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO -- SHOULD LIMIT THE SPEED
AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS...TAKING A
CIRCUITOUS ROUTE FROM THE SRN GULF NWWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO/THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND THEN NWD INTO THE PLAINS ON SEVERAL DAYS OF
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS AND WSWLY FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH...INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LESS-STOUT CAPPING NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT. THE
THREAT IS INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION DURING THE DAY 5 PERIOD /I.E. MON. SEPT. 17/...AND THEN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 6 /I.E. TUE. SEPT. 18/ AS A
WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPS FURTHER S ALONG THE FRONT.

.GOSS.. 09/13/2007

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KLCH [130903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 130903
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM HURRICANE PORT ARTHUR 29.90N 93.93W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WITH STREETS FLOODED.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [130840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLCH 130840
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0229 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK STATION SRST2 REPORTED A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 85 MPH.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [130827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 130827
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
327 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0259 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK STATION SRST2 REPORTED A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 85 MPH.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [130819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLCH 130819
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
319 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1253 AM HURRICANE 3 S CENTRAL GARDENS 29.95N 94.02W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX ASOS

KBPT ASOS MEASURED 28 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

1257 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED WINDS OF 34 MPH GUSTING TO 43
MPH.

0135 AM HURRICANE 2 NW SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.71N 94.07W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX MESONET

MCFADDEN WILDLIFE REFUGE RAWS SITE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31
MPH WITH A GUST TO 48 MPH.

0140 AM HURRICANE 3 SW HAMSHIRE 29.83N 94.35W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

KFDM-TV REPORTED A 58 MPH WIND GUST NEAR WINNIE.

0200 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH
GUSTING TO 62 MPH.

0230 AM HURRICANE SABINE PASS 29.73N 93.89W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SABINE PASS NOS GAGE MEASURED WIND GUST TO 51 MPH.

0235 AM HURRICANE 2 NW SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.71N 94.07W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX MESONET

MCFADDEN WILDLIFE REFUGE RAWS SITE MEASURED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH A GUST TO 75 MPH.

0300 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 MPH
GUSTING TO 71 MPH.

0313 AM HURRICANE 3 S CENTRAL GARDENS 29.95N 94.02W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX ASOS

KBPT ASOS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH GUSTING TO
64 MPH.

0315 AM HURRICANE NEDERLAND 29.97N 94.00W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [130816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 130816
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
316 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 AM HURRICANE NEDERLAND 29.97N 94.00W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [130815]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 130815
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
315 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 MPH
GUSTING TO 71 MPH.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [130813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 130813
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0313 AM HURRICANE 3 S CENTRAL GARDENS 29.95N 94.02W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX ASOS

KBPT ASOS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH GUSTING TO
64 MPH.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [130752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 130752
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
251 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM HURRICANE SABINE PASS 29.73N 93.89W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SABINE PASS NOS GAGE MEASURED WIND GUST TO 51 MPH.

0235 AM HURRICANE 2 NW SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.71N 94.07W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX MESONET

MCFADDEN WILDLIFE REFUGE RAWS SITE MEASURED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH A GUST TO 75 MPH.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130732
SWODY3
SPC AC 130730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD FRONT MOVES EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD TO
THE GULF COAST/NRN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST CONUS...FLATTER/DEAMPLIFYING CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE EAST. MEANWHILE...A FLAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE S
CENTRAL AND SWRN STATES...AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERS INVOF NRN CA.

THOUGH THE WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW BOTH SUGGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
THE PLAINS -- AND IN RESPONSE A MODERATELY-STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET --
IT APPEARS THAT A LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CAPE. THUS...SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. ELSEWHERE...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK SHEAR ARE FORECAST INVOF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD
ACROSS THE SERN CONUS -- AND THUS APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

.GOSS.. 09/13/2007

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KLCH [130718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 130718
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
218 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH
GUSTING TO 62 MPH.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KJAX [130716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 130716
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 PM HEAVY RAIN VILANO BEACH 29.94N 81.30W
09/12/2007 U0.00 INCH ST. JOHNS FL EMERGENCY MNGR

A 4X4 FOOT PORTION OF A MOBILE HOME ROOF BROKEN OPEN DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

$$

ARS

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KLCH [130710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 130710
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
210 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1253 AM HURRICANE 3 S CENTRAL GARDENS 29.95N 94.02W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX ASOS

KBPT ASOS MEASURED 28 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

1257 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED WINDS OF 34 MPH GUSTING TO 43
MPH.

0135 AM HURRICANE 2 NW SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.71N 94.07W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX MESONET

MCFADDEN WILDLIFE REFUGE RAWS SITE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31
MPH WITH A GUST TO 48 MPH.

0140 AM HURRICANE 3 SW HAMSHIRE 29.83N 94.35W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

KFDM-TV REPORTED A 58 MPH WIND GUST NEAR WINNIE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1962

ACUS11 KWNS 130650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130650
LAZ000-TXZ000-130845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN LA...EXTREME SE CORNER TX -- TORNADO
THREAT WITH HURRICANE HUMBERTO.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 669...

VALID 130650Z - 130845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 669 CONTINUES.

PRIND TORNADO RISK IS INCREASING PRIMARILY WITHIN AND JUST E OF
OUTER BAND EXTENDING SWD FROM CAMERON PARISH OVER OPEN
GULF...INCLUDING RELATIVELY DISCRETE/MINI-SUPERCELLS JUST AHEAD OF
THIS BAND. INTERMITTENT STORM-SCALE ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED OVER
GULF WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/BUOYANCY OVERLAPS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR INLAND INITIALLY WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG
SBCINH EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS AWAY FROM
IMMEDIATE COAST. HOWEVER...ON GRADUAL BASIS THROUGH REMAINDER
PRE-DAWN HOURS...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INLAND TO
RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH THETAE SFC PROFILE THAT EFFECTIVE LIFTED
PARCELS BECOME ROOTED AT SFC. THIS MAY SPREAD TORNADO THREAT INLAND
AT LEAST TO I-10 CORRIDOR BEFORE 12Z. LCH VWP INDICATES LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES STRENGTHENING WITH TIME ACROSS REGION AS STRONGER
WINDS BOTH ON AND ABOVE SFC YIELD PROGRESSIVELY LARGER HODOGRAPHS.
THIS FAVORABLE KINEMATIC TREND LIKEWISE WILL SHIFT NEWD IN PHASE
WITH TRANSLATIONAL MOVEMENT OF HUMBERTO.

A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO IS POSSIBLE WITH INNER BAND NOW SHIFTING NEWD
ACROSS SERN CORNER OF TX...AND EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WRN
CAMERON/CALCASIEU PARISHES THROUGH 11Z...THOUGH LACK OF RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/DISTINCT CELL STRUCTURES MAKES THREAT MORE
LIMITED/CONDITIONAL THAN INVOF OUTER BAND.

TORNADO WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM SW-NE ONCE INNER BAND/CORE REGION OF
HUMBERTO HAS PASSED. NEAR-TERM/MESOSCALE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS
BEING COVERED WITH SEPARATE DISCUSSIONS...E.G. MCD 1961. REF NHC
BULLETINS -- E.G. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST
TRACK/INTENSITY FCST AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS ON HUMBERTO.

.EDWARDS.. 09/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

29669398 29929403 30229369 30489300 30489239 30399177
30179143 29729139 29529154 29639155 29649163 29589173
29499180 29499187 29569205 29589216 29529225 29589267
29789322 29769347 29739376

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 669

WWUS20 KWNS 130623
SEL9
SPC WW 130623
LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-131500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 120 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF PORT ARTHUR
TEXAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
ABOUT SUNRISE ALONG THE NWRN GULF CST FROM EXTREME SE TX INTO S
CNTRL LA AS CIRCULATION OF HRCN HUMBERTO MOVES INLAND. GREATEST
THREAT SHOULD EXIST AT INTERSECTION OF OUTER CONFLUENCE BAND WITH
SLOW NWD-MOVING W-E FRONT NOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LA CST. SRH FOR
CELLS MOVING NWD AT 20 KTS HAS INCREASED TO AOA 175 M2/S2 IN THE
PAST 2 HRS USING THE LCH VWP. VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO AOA 250
M2/S2 BY 09-12Z ALONG THE CNTRL AND SW LA GULF CST...AS SFC
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO MID 70S.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 17035.

..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1961

ACUS11 KWNS 130608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130607
LAZ000-TXZ000-130900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...SWRN LA -- MOSTLY ERN SEMICIRCLE
OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO CIRCULATION.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 130607Z - 130900Z

HEAVIEST RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS TWO PRIMARY AREAS
DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...EACH OF WHICH SHOULD YIELD RATES 2-4
INCHES/HOUR FOR SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASONS.

1. CORE AND INNERMOST BANDS OF HUMBERTO -- INITIALLY COASTAL
COUNTIES OF CHAMBERS/JEFFERSON THEN MOVING NEWD/INLAND ACROSS
ORANGE...SRN JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS CAMERON/CALCASIEU
PARISHES. EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES --
TYPICAL OF CORE REGIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED --ALONG WITH ISOLATED/INTERMITTENT TSTMS.

2. PRIMARY OUTER BAND FARTHER E...SHIFTING NEWD AT ABOUT SAME RATE
AS TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF HUMBERTO WHILE INDIVIDUAL TSTMS MOVE
NWD/NNWWD 25-30 KT. AFFECTED AREAS WILL INCLUDE LCH REGION AND
CAMERON/CALCASIEU PARISHES INITIALLY...THEN OVER PORTIONS
VERMILION/JEFF DAVIS/ACADIA/ALLEN/BEAUREGARD/EVANGELINE/ST. LANDRY
PARISHES. WARM CLOUD RAINS WILL BE STRONGLY ENHANCED ON LOCAL LEVEL
BY TSTMS TRAINING ALONG BAND...WHERE MOST INTENSE RATES WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVER SWRN SEMICIRCLE OF
THIS SYSTEM AS RELATIVELY DRIER/LOW-THETAE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
WRAP INTO THIS PORTION OF CYCLONE. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
NOT NECESSARILY COVER SAME AREAS AS HEAVY RAIN HAZARD AND THEREFORE
IS BEING HANDLED IN SEPARATE SERIES OF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AS
NEEDED. REF NHC BULLETINS -- E.G. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR
LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS ON
HUMBERTO.

.EDWARDS.. 09/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

29479452 29889436 30349400 30629370 30929297 30939254
30439230 29589216 29529226 29559260 29759318 29749376
29659387 29689398

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130605
SWODY2
SPC AC 130604

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OH/WRN
PA/WRN NY AND THE WV PANHANDLE...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGION...AS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO
THE NORTHEAST/SEWD TO THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE S CENTRAL
CONUS...WHILE WEAK UPPER LOW/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..WRN NY/WRN PA/ERN OH/NRN WV...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED
HEATING RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION /AROUND 500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON/. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
LINEARLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH MODERATELY-STRONG /30
TO 50 KT/ ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER HALF
OF THE TROPOSPHERE...IT APPEARS THAT LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME A THREAT FROM THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD ACROSS WRN PA/WRN NY. THOUGH THE FRONT -- AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS -- SHOULD APPROACH NEW ENGLAND
LATE...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE
THREAT TO DIMINISH WITH TIME.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
AND VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD HINDER
MOST WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
EVENING...WHERE AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION.

WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...20 TO
30 KT NWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL HAIL N OF
THE FRONT.

.GOSS.. 09/13/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130549
SWODY1
SPC AC 130546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..HUMBERTO...

HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST...THEN TRACK SLOWLY INTO CNTRL LA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...EXCEPT WITHIN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION
CENTER...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR WILL EXIST
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG/EAST OF LOW CENTER TRACK...MAINLY ACROSS LA AND A
SMALL PORTION OF SERN TX. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT UPGRADE
TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE COMPACT
NATURE/INTENSITY OF WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO. REF NHC
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HUMBERTO.

..KS...

SURFACE PRESSURES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE PERIOD. FRONTAL POSITION AT 00Z SHOULD
EXTEND FROM CNTRL WI...SWWD INTO CNTRL KS WHERE STEEPEST BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE AT TIME OF WIND SHIFT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL/SWRN KS SUGGEST SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN STRONGEST ZONE OF CONVERGENCE.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE
LEVELS. CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITHIN POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SWRN KS. EVEN SO...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
WANE CONSIDERABLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DARROW/GUYER.. 09/13/2007

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KJAX [130423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 130423
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1223 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SE ST. AUGUSTINE 29.86N 81.26W
09/12/2007 M40.00 MPH ST. JOHNS FL C-MAN STATION

THE C-MAN STATION SAUF1 MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

$$

ARS

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