MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1961

ACUS11 KWNS 130608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130607
LAZ000-TXZ000-130900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...SWRN LA -- MOSTLY ERN SEMICIRCLE
OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO CIRCULATION.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 130607Z - 130900Z

HEAVIEST RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS TWO PRIMARY AREAS
DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...EACH OF WHICH SHOULD YIELD RATES 2-4
INCHES/HOUR FOR SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASONS.

1. CORE AND INNERMOST BANDS OF HUMBERTO -- INITIALLY COASTAL
COUNTIES OF CHAMBERS/JEFFERSON THEN MOVING NEWD/INLAND ACROSS
ORANGE...SRN JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS CAMERON/CALCASIEU
PARISHES. EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES --
TYPICAL OF CORE REGIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED --ALONG WITH ISOLATED/INTERMITTENT TSTMS.

2. PRIMARY OUTER BAND FARTHER E...SHIFTING NEWD AT ABOUT SAME RATE
AS TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF HUMBERTO WHILE INDIVIDUAL TSTMS MOVE
NWD/NNWWD 25-30 KT. AFFECTED AREAS WILL INCLUDE LCH REGION AND
CAMERON/CALCASIEU PARISHES INITIALLY...THEN OVER PORTIONS
VERMILION/JEFF DAVIS/ACADIA/ALLEN/BEAUREGARD/EVANGELINE/ST. LANDRY
PARISHES. WARM CLOUD RAINS WILL BE STRONGLY ENHANCED ON LOCAL LEVEL
BY TSTMS TRAINING ALONG BAND...WHERE MOST INTENSE RATES WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVER SWRN SEMICIRCLE OF
THIS SYSTEM AS RELATIVELY DRIER/LOW-THETAE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
WRAP INTO THIS PORTION OF CYCLONE. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
NOT NECESSARILY COVER SAME AREAS AS HEAVY RAIN HAZARD AND THEREFORE
IS BEING HANDLED IN SEPARATE SERIES OF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AS
NEEDED. REF NHC BULLETINS -- E.G. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR
LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS ON
HUMBERTO.

.EDWARDS.. 09/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

29479452 29889436 30349400 30629370 30929297 30939254
30439230 29589216 29529226 29559260 29759318 29749376
29659387 29689398

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