NWUS53 KLBF 191939
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
239 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0236 PM HAIL 9 E WELLFLEET 40.75N 100.56W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH LINCOLN NE PUBLIC
MOSTLY PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL BUT A FEW STONES WERE AS
LARGE AS A QUARTER.
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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Saturday, May 19, 2012
KMLB [191939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KMLB 191939
LSRMLB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0337 PM HAIL 3 SSE PALM CITY 27.12N 80.26W
05/19/2012 E0.50 INCH MARTIN FL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ARB
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LSRMLB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0337 PM HAIL 3 SSE PALM CITY 27.12N 80.26W
05/19/2012 E0.50 INCH MARTIN FL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ARB
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0839
ACUS11 KWNS 191937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191936
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-192100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB AND SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191936Z - 192100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INITIAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 21-22Z FROM PARTS
OF CNTRL KS INTO ERN NEB. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER FARTHER SOUTH FROM SCNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ERN NEB SWWD THROUGH WCNTRL
KS INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE STRETCHES FROM WRN TX
NWD INTO SWRN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR
HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BASED ON
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...BUT IS STRONGLY CAPPED BY A WARM EML
THAT HAS ADVECTED INTO THIS REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH WRN KS AND MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE CAP WILL
WEAKEN AS THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER ASCENT OVERTAKES THE WRN EDGE OF
WARM SECTOR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT BY 21-22Z MOST LIKELY FROM CNTRL
KS THROUGH ERN NEB. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS MODEST WITH UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S PROMOTING
LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS. DEEP SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO 40-50 KT IN FRONTAL ZONE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...BUT
THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NWRN OK AFTER 22Z.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 41169518 37579718 36049853 36379943 37629951 38719914
39579882 40199840 40749785 41139737 41859598 41169518
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191936
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-192100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB AND SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191936Z - 192100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INITIAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 21-22Z FROM PARTS
OF CNTRL KS INTO ERN NEB. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER FARTHER SOUTH FROM SCNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ERN NEB SWWD THROUGH WCNTRL
KS INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE STRETCHES FROM WRN TX
NWD INTO SWRN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR
HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BASED ON
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...BUT IS STRONGLY CAPPED BY A WARM EML
THAT HAS ADVECTED INTO THIS REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH WRN KS AND MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE CAP WILL
WEAKEN AS THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER ASCENT OVERTAKES THE WRN EDGE OF
WARM SECTOR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT BY 21-22Z MOST LIKELY FROM CNTRL
KS THROUGH ERN NEB. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS MODEST WITH UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S PROMOTING
LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS. DEEP SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO 40-50 KT IN FRONTAL ZONE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...BUT
THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NWRN OK AFTER 22Z.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 41169518 37579718 36049853 36379943 37629951 38719914
39579882 40199840 40749785 41139737 41859598 41169518
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KGLD [191931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 191931
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0120 PM HAIL 3 SE OAKLEY 39.10N 100.81W
05/19/2012 E0.88 INCH LOGAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
024
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0120 PM HAIL 3 SE OAKLEY 39.10N 100.81W
05/19/2012 E0.88 INCH LOGAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
024
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KMLB [191931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KMLB 191931
LSRMLB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 PM HAIL 6 SSW PALM CITY 27.09N 80.29W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH MARTIN FL TRAINED SPOTTER
LASTED FOR ABOUT 15 MINUTES
&&
$$
ARB
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LSRMLB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 PM HAIL 6 SSW PALM CITY 27.09N 80.29W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH MARTIN FL TRAINED SPOTTER
LASTED FOR ABOUT 15 MINUTES
&&
$$
ARB
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KLBF [191914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 191914
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
214 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0213 PM HAIL 8 SSW MAYWOOD 40.55N 100.68W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC
GROUND IS COVERED WHITE WITH HAIL.
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
214 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0213 PM HAIL 8 SSW MAYWOOD 40.55N 100.68W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC
GROUND IS COVERED WHITE WITH HAIL.
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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KLZK [191911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLZK 191911
LSRLZK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
211 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0445 PM HAIL 1 E MONTICELLO 33.62N 91.78W
05/18/2012 E0.75 INCH DREW AR TRAINED SPOTTER
PENNY SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF
MONTICELLO.
&&
$$
MCLAY
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LSRLZK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
211 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0445 PM HAIL 1 E MONTICELLO 33.62N 91.78W
05/18/2012 E0.75 INCH DREW AR TRAINED SPOTTER
PENNY SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF
MONTICELLO.
&&
$$
MCLAY
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KLBF [191908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 191908
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
208 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0207 PM HAIL 13 E HAYES CENTER 40.51N 100.77W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
208 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0207 PM HAIL 13 E HAYES CENTER 40.51N 100.77W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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KLBF [191900]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 191900
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
200 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0158 PM HAIL 11 ESE HAYES CENTER 40.45N 100.83W
05/19/2012 M1.25 INCH HAYES NE PUBLIC
GROUND COVERED WHITE WITH HAIL.
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
200 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0158 PM HAIL 11 ESE HAYES CENTER 40.45N 100.83W
05/19/2012 M1.25 INCH HAYES NE PUBLIC
GROUND COVERED WHITE WITH HAIL.
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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KLBF [191853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 191853
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
153 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0147 PM HAIL 1 NE PAXTON 41.13N 101.34W
05/19/2012 M0.88 INCH KEITH NE PUBLIC
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
153 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0147 PM HAIL 1 NE PAXTON 41.13N 101.34W
05/19/2012 M0.88 INCH KEITH NE PUBLIC
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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KGLD [191852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 191852
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1252 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1246 PM HAIL 3 W RUSSELL SPRINGS 38.91N 101.23W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH LOGAN KS STORM CHASER
CHASER REPORTS LARGE QUANTITY OF HAIL COVERING HIGHWAY 25
AT RUSSELL SPRINGS
&&
$$
024
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1252 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1246 PM HAIL 3 W RUSSELL SPRINGS 38.91N 101.23W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH LOGAN KS STORM CHASER
CHASER REPORTS LARGE QUANTITY OF HAIL COVERING HIGHWAY 25
AT RUSSELL SPRINGS
&&
$$
024
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0838
ACUS11 KWNS 191849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191849
MNZ000-WIZ000-192015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191849Z - 192015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. A FEW STORMS WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH A WW DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 1830Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD FROM N-CNTRL MN INTO EXTREME SERN SD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM ARE AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE HEATING IS DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
WEAKENING CINH. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
CUMULUS GROWTH LIFTING NWD TOWARD NERN MN. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HRS. VWP/S AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER
OF S-SWLY FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FROM 20-40 KT. THESE WIND PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...
LAT...LON 43579632 46209537 48579465 48709274 47789121 45059304
43549476 43579632
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191849
MNZ000-WIZ000-192015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191849Z - 192015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. A FEW STORMS WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH A WW DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 1830Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD FROM N-CNTRL MN INTO EXTREME SERN SD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM ARE AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE HEATING IS DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
WEAKENING CINH. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
CUMULUS GROWTH LIFTING NWD TOWARD NERN MN. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HRS. VWP/S AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER
OF S-SWLY FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FROM 20-40 KT. THESE WIND PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...
LAT...LON 43579632 46209537 48579465 48709274 47789121 45059304
43549476 43579632
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KLBF [191848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 191848
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
148 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0147 PM HAIL S PAXTON 41.12N 101.36W
05/19/2012 M0.50 INCH KEITH NE PUBLIC
COVERING THE GROUND.
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
148 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0147 PM HAIL S PAXTON 41.12N 101.36W
05/19/2012 M0.50 INCH KEITH NE PUBLIC
COVERING THE GROUND.
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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KOHX [191845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOHX 191845
LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
145 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0128 PM HAIL TRACY CITY 35.26N 85.75W
05/19/2012 E0.88 INCH GRUNDY TN TRAINED SPOTTER
NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER NEAR THE COMMUNITY
OF HOBBS HILL.
&&
$$
JLM
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LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
145 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0128 PM HAIL TRACY CITY 35.26N 85.75W
05/19/2012 E0.88 INCH GRUNDY TN TRAINED SPOTTER
NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER NEAR THE COMMUNITY
OF HOBBS HILL.
&&
$$
JLM
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0837
ACUS11 KWNS 191838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191837
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND SWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191837Z - 192030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING FROM SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND SWRN NEB.
DUE TO THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE EVENTS...A WW WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB
SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAPID REFRESH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX OVER
ERN CO WHICH IS AUGMENTING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME WHERE 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS. POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE STORMS ARE ROOTED NEAR 800 MB...BUT
EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS TRENDS
BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40990110 40380040 39040029 37830104 37120259 37160415
37930427 38970237 40630167 40990110
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191837
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND SWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191837Z - 192030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING FROM SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND SWRN NEB.
DUE TO THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE EVENTS...A WW WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB
SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAPID REFRESH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX OVER
ERN CO WHICH IS AUGMENTING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME WHERE 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS. POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE STORMS ARE ROOTED NEAR 800 MB...BUT
EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS TRENDS
BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40990110 40380040 39040029 37830104 37120259 37160415
37930427 38970237 40630167 40990110
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KLBF [191835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 191835
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
135 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0128 PM HAIL 3 ESE HAMLET 40.37N 101.18W
05/19/2012 M1.50 INCH HAYES NE PUBLIC
HAIL WAS PING PONG BALL IN SIZE.
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
135 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0128 PM HAIL 3 ESE HAMLET 40.37N 101.18W
05/19/2012 M1.50 INCH HAYES NE PUBLIC
HAIL WAS PING PONG BALL IN SIZE.
&&
$$
SJACOBS
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KGLD [191828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 191828
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1228 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1215 PM HAIL 13 NW STRATTON NE 40.28N 101.40W
05/19/2012 E1.75 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
FSTASSER
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1228 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1215 PM HAIL 13 NW STRATTON NE 40.28N 101.40W
05/19/2012 E1.75 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
FSTASSER
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KGLD [191822]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 191822
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1222 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1205 PM HAIL 4 N MAX 40.17N 101.40W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
024
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1222 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1205 PM HAIL 4 N MAX 40.17N 101.40W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
024
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KGLD [191815]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 191815
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1215 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1210 PM HAIL STRATTON NE 40.15N 101.23W
05/19/2012 M1.75 INCH HITCHCOCK NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
024
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1215 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1210 PM HAIL STRATTON NE 40.15N 101.23W
05/19/2012 M1.75 INCH HITCHCOCK NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
024
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KGLD [191747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 191747
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1147 AM HAIL BENKELMAN 40.05N 101.54W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
024
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1147 AM HAIL BENKELMAN 40.05N 101.54W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
024
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK/CUT-OFF UPPER LOW LINGERS INVOF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE
WEST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A LEAD IMPULSE --
AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC -- IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY WEAK PATTERN IS PROGGED...WITH THE
MOST PRONOUNCED FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST TO
REMAIN THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOBILE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
TROUGH. BY AFTERNOON...THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY...AND THEN WSWWD
ACROSS OK INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX -- FOCUSING A SIMILARLY-ALIGNED BAND
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
SOME ONGOING CONVECTION PROGGED TO BE OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION INVOF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING ASSISTS IN MODEST AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION. WHILE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST
AND QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE...OVERALL KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OF STORMS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING -- WITH A LOCAL THREAT FOR MARGINAL WIND/HAIL. THOUGH
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT -- SHIFTING
EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE WARM
SECTOR DIURNALLY STABILIZES.
...OK WSWWD ACROSS NWRN TX INTO PARTS OF SERN NM...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND VICINITY AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE
SURFACE FRONT LYING ACROSS THE AREA. DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND S OF
THE FRONT/ONGOING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS -- FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL OK SWWD
INTO NWRN TX. WHILE OVERALL FLOW FIELD WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK...BACKED/ELY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL WLYS
MAY RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION. THUS -- A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/WIND WITHIN THIS REGION. OVERNIGHT...AN
INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX MAY
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION INTO PARTS OF W TX AND ERN NM.
AGAIN -- WHILE MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...ENHANCED SELYS AT
LOW LEVELS SUGGEST SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- AND
ATTENDANT/LOW-END HAIL/WIND THREAT.
..GOSS.. 05/19/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 191730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK/CUT-OFF UPPER LOW LINGERS INVOF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE
WEST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A LEAD IMPULSE --
AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC -- IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY WEAK PATTERN IS PROGGED...WITH THE
MOST PRONOUNCED FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST TO
REMAIN THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOBILE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
TROUGH. BY AFTERNOON...THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY...AND THEN WSWWD
ACROSS OK INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX -- FOCUSING A SIMILARLY-ALIGNED BAND
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
SOME ONGOING CONVECTION PROGGED TO BE OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION INVOF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING ASSISTS IN MODEST AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION. WHILE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST
AND QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE...OVERALL KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OF STORMS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING -- WITH A LOCAL THREAT FOR MARGINAL WIND/HAIL. THOUGH
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT -- SHIFTING
EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE WARM
SECTOR DIURNALLY STABILIZES.
...OK WSWWD ACROSS NWRN TX INTO PARTS OF SERN NM...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND VICINITY AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE
SURFACE FRONT LYING ACROSS THE AREA. DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND S OF
THE FRONT/ONGOING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS -- FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL OK SWWD
INTO NWRN TX. WHILE OVERALL FLOW FIELD WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK...BACKED/ELY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL WLYS
MAY RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION. THUS -- A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/WIND WITHIN THIS REGION. OVERNIGHT...AN
INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX MAY
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION INTO PARTS OF W TX AND ERN NM.
AGAIN -- WHILE MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...ENHANCED SELYS AT
LOW LEVELS SUGGEST SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- AND
ATTENDANT/LOW-END HAIL/WIND THREAT.
..GOSS.. 05/19/2012
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KGLD [191723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 191723
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1110 AM HAIL ST. FRANCIS 39.77N 101.80W
05/19/2012 M0.75 INCH CHEYENNE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
024
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1110 AM HAIL ST. FRANCIS 39.77N 101.80W
05/19/2012 M0.75 INCH CHEYENNE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
024
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KMPX [191705]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMPX 191705
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1015 PM HAIL 1 SE WILLMAR 45.12N 95.03W
05/18/2012 M0.88 INCH KANDIYOHI MN TRAINED SPOTTER
LATE REPORT.
&&
$$
CARLYON
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LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1015 PM HAIL 1 SE WILLMAR 45.12N 95.03W
05/18/2012 M0.88 INCH KANDIYOHI MN TRAINED SPOTTER
LATE REPORT.
&&
$$
CARLYON
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KABR [191653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KABR 191653
LSRABR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 WSW MINA 45.42N 98.83W
05/19/2012 EDMUNDS SD PUBLIC
KNOCKED HORSE FENCES DOWN ALONG PROPERTY
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABR1200131
$$
TROGDON
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LSRABR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 WSW MINA 45.42N 98.83W
05/19/2012 EDMUNDS SD PUBLIC
KNOCKED HORSE FENCES DOWN ALONG PROPERTY
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABR1200131
$$
TROGDON
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KABR [191646]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KABR 191646
LSRABR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 AM TSTM WND GST 2 SW CRESBARD 45.15N 98.98W
05/19/2012 E60 MPH FAULK SD PUBLIC
ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH WINDS AT RESIDENCE WITH PEA-SIZED
HAIL
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABR1200130
$$
TROGDON
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LSRABR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 AM TSTM WND GST 2 SW CRESBARD 45.15N 98.98W
05/19/2012 E60 MPH FAULK SD PUBLIC
ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH WINDS AT RESIDENCE WITH PEA-SIZED
HAIL
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABR1200130
$$
TROGDON
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0836
ACUS11 KWNS 191645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191644
FLZ000-191815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191644Z - 191815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 16Z SHOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS S
FL ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND DEEPENING CUMULUS. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW
70S/ WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...WHICH WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL ELYS OCCURRING BENEATH 100 KT WLY SUB-TROPICAL JET. PRECIP
LOADING WITH STRONGER CELLS WILL FAVOR WET MICROBURSTS...WHILE LARGE
BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 27008005 25498020 25208048 25138110 25948178 26858206
27318119 27388043 27008005
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191644
FLZ000-191815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191644Z - 191815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 16Z SHOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS S
FL ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND DEEPENING CUMULUS. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW
70S/ WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...WHICH WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL ELYS OCCURRING BENEATH 100 KT WLY SUB-TROPICAL JET. PRECIP
LOADING WITH STRONGER CELLS WILL FAVOR WET MICROBURSTS...WHILE LARGE
BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 27008005 25498020 25208048 25138110 25948178 26858206
27318119 27388043 27008005
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KABR [191643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KABR 191643
LSRABR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1240 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW DEVOE 45.10N 98.90W
05/19/2012 FAULK SD PUBLIC
LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN YARD
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABR1200129
$$
TROGDON
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LSRABR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1240 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW DEVOE 45.10N 98.90W
05/19/2012 FAULK SD PUBLIC
LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN YARD
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABR1200129
$$
TROGDON
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KMPX [191638]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMPX 191638
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NNW MILACA 45.87N 93.70W
05/18/2012 MILLE LACS MN UTILITY COMPANY
ONE ENERGY POLE DOWN AND TEN SPRUCE TREES...LATE REPORT.
&&
$$
CARLYON
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LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NNW MILACA 45.87N 93.70W
05/18/2012 MILLE LACS MN UTILITY COMPANY
ONE ENERGY POLE DOWN AND TEN SPRUCE TREES...LATE REPORT.
&&
$$
CARLYON
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KMFL [191634]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KMFL 191634
LSRMFL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM FLOOD NORTH MIAMI BEACH 25.93N 80.16W
05/19/2012 MIAMI-DADE FL TRAINED SPOTTER
A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 3 INCHES OF STANDING WATER
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NE 18TH AVENUE AND NE 191ST
STREET.
&&
$$
ROSS
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LSRMFL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM FLOOD NORTH MIAMI BEACH 25.93N 80.16W
05/19/2012 MIAMI-DADE FL TRAINED SPOTTER
A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 3 INCHES OF STANDING WATER
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NE 18TH AVENUE AND NE 191ST
STREET.
&&
$$
ROSS
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 191619
SWODY1
SPC AC 191617
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH FL...
...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER CO IS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ENEWD
REACHING THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-17C AT 500 MB/ WHICH
WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
NEB...WRN KS INTO THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD
REACHING ERN NEB/CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ALTHOUGH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE CONTINUING FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OWING TO PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONIC
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE TX COAST. THIS
WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR SURFACE DEW POINTS TO AROUND 60F OVER NEB AND
KS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER THE PLAINS WILL ENHANCE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EML IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT WHEN DIABATIC HEATING AND FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION WEAKEN THE
CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS OF TRADITIONAL
AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN OK
DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD...40-50 KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL REGION PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...INCLUDING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS...WHILE THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIATION...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS/LINES WITH ACTIVITY THEN
SPREADING EWD/NEWD WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION INTO PRIMARILY A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WITH TIME. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AFTER 03Z AS DIURNAL STABILIZATION OCCURS AFTER SUNSET.
...SOUTH FL...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEAR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWING -10C AT 500 MB WITH
RESULTANT STEEPER LAPSE RATES ENHANCING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 700 MB REMAIN WEAK...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS
POSITIONED OVER SOUTH FL WITH 100 KT AT 200 MB. STRONG HEATING
NORTH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER EXTREME SRN FL WILL PERMIT STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
...TN VLY/N GA AREA...
WRN EXTENSION OF LONG-LIVED...CAROLINAS UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
CORRIDOR OF COOL MID LVL TEMPS /AOB -14 C AT 500 MB/ ATOP
STRONGLY-HEATED...RELATIVELY MOIST...VERY WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER PARTS OF TN AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS
SETUP MAY YIELD DIURNAL PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS
AND/OR SVR HAIL.
..WEISS/GARNER.. 05/19/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 191617
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH FL...
...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER CO IS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ENEWD
REACHING THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-17C AT 500 MB/ WHICH
WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
NEB...WRN KS INTO THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD
REACHING ERN NEB/CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ALTHOUGH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE CONTINUING FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OWING TO PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONIC
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE TX COAST. THIS
WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR SURFACE DEW POINTS TO AROUND 60F OVER NEB AND
KS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER THE PLAINS WILL ENHANCE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EML IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT WHEN DIABATIC HEATING AND FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION WEAKEN THE
CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS OF TRADITIONAL
AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN OK
DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD...40-50 KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL REGION PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...INCLUDING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS...WHILE THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIATION...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS/LINES WITH ACTIVITY THEN
SPREADING EWD/NEWD WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION INTO PRIMARILY A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WITH TIME. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AFTER 03Z AS DIURNAL STABILIZATION OCCURS AFTER SUNSET.
...SOUTH FL...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEAR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWING -10C AT 500 MB WITH
RESULTANT STEEPER LAPSE RATES ENHANCING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 700 MB REMAIN WEAK...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS
POSITIONED OVER SOUTH FL WITH 100 KT AT 200 MB. STRONG HEATING
NORTH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER EXTREME SRN FL WILL PERMIT STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
...TN VLY/N GA AREA...
WRN EXTENSION OF LONG-LIVED...CAROLINAS UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
CORRIDOR OF COOL MID LVL TEMPS /AOB -14 C AT 500 MB/ ATOP
STRONGLY-HEATED...RELATIVELY MOIST...VERY WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER PARTS OF TN AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS
SETUP MAY YIELD DIURNAL PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS
AND/OR SVR HAIL.
..WEISS/GARNER.. 05/19/2012
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KPUB [191619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPUB 191619
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1019 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1002 AM HAIL 5 SE EADS 38.43N 102.71W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH KIOWA CO TRAINED SPOTTER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND.
&&
$$
MN
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1019 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1002 AM HAIL 5 SE EADS 38.43N 102.71W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH KIOWA CO TRAINED SPOTTER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND.
&&
$$
MN
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KPUB [191559]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPUB 191559
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
959 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0956 AM HAIL 2 SE EADS 38.46N 102.75W
05/19/2012 E0.75 INCH KIOWA CO PUBLIC
&&
$$
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
959 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0956 AM HAIL 2 SE EADS 38.46N 102.75W
05/19/2012 E0.75 INCH KIOWA CO PUBLIC
&&
$$
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KFGF [191537]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KFGF 191537
LSRFGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1037 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1055 PM HAIL 4 NNE WADENA 46.49N 95.10W
05/18/2012 E1.00 INCH WADENA MN PUBLIC
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL WITH GUSTY WINDS. GARDEN
DAMAGE REPORTED.
&&
$$
VGODON
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LSRFGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1037 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1055 PM HAIL 4 NNE WADENA 46.49N 95.10W
05/18/2012 E1.00 INCH WADENA MN PUBLIC
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL WITH GUSTY WINDS. GARDEN
DAMAGE REPORTED.
&&
$$
VGODON
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KLBF [191442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 191442
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
942 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0940 AM HAIL 19 SW THEDFORD 41.78N 100.84W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH THOMAS NE PUBLIC
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.
&&
$$
BTAYLOR
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
942 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0940 AM HAIL 19 SW THEDFORD 41.78N 100.84W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH THOMAS NE PUBLIC
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.
&&
$$
BTAYLOR
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KLBF [191427]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS53 KLBF 191427
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
927 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0926 AM HAIL 7 N TRYON 41.66N 100.94W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH MCPHERSON NE PUBLIC
GROUND COVERED WITH HAIL. THE LARGEST SIZE OF HAIL WAS A
QUARTER.
&&
$$
BTAYLOR
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
927 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0926 AM HAIL 7 N TRYON 41.66N 100.94W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH MCPHERSON NE PUBLIC
GROUND COVERED WITH HAIL. THE LARGEST SIZE OF HAIL WAS A
QUARTER.
&&
$$
BTAYLOR
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KLBF [191426]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 191426
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
926 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0926 AM HAIL 7 N TRYON 41.66N 100.94W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH MCPHERSON NE PUBLIC
GROUND COVERED WITH HAIL. THE LARGEST SIZE IF HAIL WAS A
QUARTER.
&&
$$
BTAYLOR
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
926 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0926 AM HAIL 7 N TRYON 41.66N 100.94W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH MCPHERSON NE PUBLIC
GROUND COVERED WITH HAIL. THE LARGEST SIZE IF HAIL WAS A
QUARTER.
&&
$$
BTAYLOR
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KFSD [191351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KFSD 191351
LSRFSD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
851 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 PM HAIL 5 S STORDEN 43.97N 95.32W
05/18/2012 E1.00 INCH COTTONWOOD MN PUBLIC
&&
$$
WILLIAMS
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LSRFSD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
851 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 PM HAIL 5 S STORDEN 43.97N 95.32W
05/18/2012 E1.00 INCH COTTONWOOD MN PUBLIC
&&
$$
WILLIAMS
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KKEY [191340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KKEY 191340
LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0645 AM WATER SPOUT 17 NNE BIG TORCH KEY 24.97N 81.36W
05/19/2012 GMZ032 FL AIRPLANE PILOT
PILOT REPORTED A WATERSPOUT OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0645 AM WATER SPOUT 17 NNE BIG TORCH KEY 24.97N 81.36W
05/19/2012 GMZ032 FL AIRPLANE PILOT
PILOT REPORTED A WATERSPOUT OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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KKEY [191336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS52 KKEY 191336 CCA
LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
931 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
CORRECTED TIME OF EVENT
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0848 AM WATER SPOUT 5 SE ROCK HARBOR 25.03N 80.40W
05/19/2012 GMZ042 FL AIRPLANE PILOT
PILOT REPORTED 2 WATERSPOUTS OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
931 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
CORRECTED TIME OF EVENT
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0848 AM WATER SPOUT 5 SE ROCK HARBOR 25.03N 80.40W
05/19/2012 GMZ042 FL AIRPLANE PILOT
PILOT REPORTED 2 WATERSPOUTS OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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KKEY [191331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KKEY 191331
LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
931 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0925 AM WATER SPOUT 5 SE ROCK HARBOR 25.03N 80.40W
05/19/2012 GMZ042 FL AIRPLANE PILOT
PILOT REPORTED 2 WATERSPOUTS OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
931 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0925 AM WATER SPOUT 5 SE ROCK HARBOR 25.03N 80.40W
05/19/2012 GMZ042 FL AIRPLANE PILOT
PILOT REPORTED 2 WATERSPOUTS OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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KABR [191323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS53 KABR 191323
LSRABR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
823 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 PM TSTM WND DMG 22 W FORT PIERRE 44.36N 100.82W
05/18/2012 STANLEY SD PUBLIC
ROOF OFF BARN WHICH DOWNED POWER LINES AT RESIDENCE
&&
CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT
EVENT NUMBER ABR1200128
$$
CONNELLY
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LSRABR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
823 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 PM TSTM WND DMG 22 W FORT PIERRE 44.36N 100.82W
05/18/2012 STANLEY SD PUBLIC
ROOF OFF BARN WHICH DOWNED POWER LINES AT RESIDENCE
&&
CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT
EVENT NUMBER ABR1200128
$$
CONNELLY
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 191250
SWODY1
SPC AC 191248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLNS...
...SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM SK SWD TO THE SRN RCKYS EXPECTED TO MOVE
STEADILY E/NE THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM TX THROUGH
THE MID MS VLY TO THE LWR GRT LKS. ELSEWHERE...ELONGATED TROUGH
COMPLEX WILL PERSIST OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE MODERATE WLY
FLOW OVERSPREADS THE WEST.
SRN PORTION OF THE RCKYS TROUGH...MARKED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
OVER SRN CO...SHOULD MOVE NE INTO CNTRL KS/S CNTRL NEB THIS
EVE...AND INTO SW MN/NW IA BY 12Z SUN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SERVE TO
ACCELERATE COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS SSEWD...WITH THE
FRONT OVERTAKING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE NOW EXTENDING SSW FROM WRN KS
INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. AT THE SAME TIME...NE MOVEMENT OF CO
IMPULSE SHOULD IMPART A CORRESPONDING NEWD MOTION TO WRN KS SFC
WAVE...WITH THE WAVE REACHING SE NEB THIS EVE...AND SE MN EARLY SUN.
THE COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS LATER TODAY INTO
TNGT AS SFC HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DESTABILIZE REGION.
...E TX PNHDL/WRN OK INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA TODAY/TNGT...
PERSISTENT LOW LVL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER MOISTENING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLNS TODAY. HOWEVER...SFC DATA /ESPECIALLY CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/ AND BLENDED PW DATA
SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MODEST. THIS
FACTOR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN BROAD/DEEP EML...AMPLE
SBCAPE /1500-2500 J PER KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SVR STORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE MID MO VLY.
BAND OF STORMS NOW PRESENT FROM NW IA SWD INTO NW MO/ERN KS MARKS
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EML AND ASSOCIATED WAA. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
YIELD A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL...THE TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING AS ASSOCIATED LLJ WEAKENS AND BACKS. NEW STORMS...WITH A
GREATER SVR POTENTIAL...SHOULD FORM BY MID-LATE AFTN ALONG FRONT/LEE
TROUGH FROM S CNTRL NEB SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH EJECTING UPR IMPULSE AND SFC HEATING OVERCOME EML CAP.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /MAX SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F/ WILL
LIMIT BUOYANCY. BUT 40+ KT SWLY 500 MB JET ASSOCIATED WITH
CO UPR IMPULSE AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF 35 KT SLY LLJ WILL YIELD
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
EVE...POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS
A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...MORE GENERALLY
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY LENGTHY SQLN BY EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A
CONTINUED RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND COULD PRODUCE A BROADER SWATH OR TWO
OF DMGG WIND INTO TNGT AS THE COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE/STRENGTHEN.
THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS AND UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD BEYOND NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE
RETURN.
...SRN/CNTRL FL THIS AFTN...
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MODERATE WLY HI-LVL JET...COOL MID LVL TEMPS
/AROUND MINUS 10 C AT 500 MB/...AND HI PW /AOA 1.50 INCHES/ MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SVR DIURNAL STORMS WITH LOCALLY
DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL OVER SRN AND PERHAPS S CNTRL FL. WITH THE
BACKGROUND LOW TO MID LVL FLOW ENELY TODAY /RELATIVE TO WLY
YESTERDAY/...SWRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA MAY BE MOST FAVORED FOR
STORMS. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY BE ENHANCED
BY APPARENT LOW AMPLITUDE UPR IMPULSE APPROACHING THE SW FL CST.
...TN VLY/N GA AREA THIS AFTN...
WRN EXTENSION OF LONG-LIVED...CAROLINAS UPR TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
CORRIDOR OF COOL MID LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS 14 C AT 500 MB/ ATOP
STRONGLY-HEATED...RELATIVELY MOIST...VERY WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER PARTS OF TN AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS
SETUP MAY YIELD SCTD DIURNAL PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS
AND/OR SVR HAIL.
..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 05/19/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 191248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLNS...
...SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM SK SWD TO THE SRN RCKYS EXPECTED TO MOVE
STEADILY E/NE THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM TX THROUGH
THE MID MS VLY TO THE LWR GRT LKS. ELSEWHERE...ELONGATED TROUGH
COMPLEX WILL PERSIST OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE MODERATE WLY
FLOW OVERSPREADS THE WEST.
SRN PORTION OF THE RCKYS TROUGH...MARKED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
OVER SRN CO...SHOULD MOVE NE INTO CNTRL KS/S CNTRL NEB THIS
EVE...AND INTO SW MN/NW IA BY 12Z SUN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SERVE TO
ACCELERATE COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS SSEWD...WITH THE
FRONT OVERTAKING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE NOW EXTENDING SSW FROM WRN KS
INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. AT THE SAME TIME...NE MOVEMENT OF CO
IMPULSE SHOULD IMPART A CORRESPONDING NEWD MOTION TO WRN KS SFC
WAVE...WITH THE WAVE REACHING SE NEB THIS EVE...AND SE MN EARLY SUN.
THE COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS LATER TODAY INTO
TNGT AS SFC HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DESTABILIZE REGION.
...E TX PNHDL/WRN OK INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA TODAY/TNGT...
PERSISTENT LOW LVL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER MOISTENING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLNS TODAY. HOWEVER...SFC DATA /ESPECIALLY CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/ AND BLENDED PW DATA
SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MODEST. THIS
FACTOR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN BROAD/DEEP EML...AMPLE
SBCAPE /1500-2500 J PER KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SVR STORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE MID MO VLY.
BAND OF STORMS NOW PRESENT FROM NW IA SWD INTO NW MO/ERN KS MARKS
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EML AND ASSOCIATED WAA. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
YIELD A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL...THE TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING AS ASSOCIATED LLJ WEAKENS AND BACKS. NEW STORMS...WITH A
GREATER SVR POTENTIAL...SHOULD FORM BY MID-LATE AFTN ALONG FRONT/LEE
TROUGH FROM S CNTRL NEB SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH EJECTING UPR IMPULSE AND SFC HEATING OVERCOME EML CAP.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /MAX SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F/ WILL
LIMIT BUOYANCY. BUT 40+ KT SWLY 500 MB JET ASSOCIATED WITH
CO UPR IMPULSE AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF 35 KT SLY LLJ WILL YIELD
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
EVE...POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS
A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...MORE GENERALLY
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY LENGTHY SQLN BY EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A
CONTINUED RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND COULD PRODUCE A BROADER SWATH OR TWO
OF DMGG WIND INTO TNGT AS THE COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE/STRENGTHEN.
THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS AND UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD BEYOND NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE
RETURN.
...SRN/CNTRL FL THIS AFTN...
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MODERATE WLY HI-LVL JET...COOL MID LVL TEMPS
/AROUND MINUS 10 C AT 500 MB/...AND HI PW /AOA 1.50 INCHES/ MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SVR DIURNAL STORMS WITH LOCALLY
DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL OVER SRN AND PERHAPS S CNTRL FL. WITH THE
BACKGROUND LOW TO MID LVL FLOW ENELY TODAY /RELATIVE TO WLY
YESTERDAY/...SWRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA MAY BE MOST FAVORED FOR
STORMS. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY BE ENHANCED
BY APPARENT LOW AMPLITUDE UPR IMPULSE APPROACHING THE SW FL CST.
...TN VLY/N GA AREA THIS AFTN...
WRN EXTENSION OF LONG-LIVED...CAROLINAS UPR TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
CORRIDOR OF COOL MID LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS 14 C AT 500 MB/ ATOP
STRONGLY-HEATED...RELATIVELY MOIST...VERY WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER PARTS OF TN AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS
SETUP MAY YIELD SCTD DIURNAL PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS
AND/OR SVR HAIL.
..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 05/19/2012
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KABR [191210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KABR 191210
LSRABR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
710 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM TSTM WND GST 22 W FORT PIERRE 44.36N 100.82W
05/18/2012 E60 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC
ROOF OFF BARN WHICH DOWNED POWER LINES AT RESIDENCE
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABR1200128
$$
TROGDON
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LSRABR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
710 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM TSTM WND GST 22 W FORT PIERRE 44.36N 100.82W
05/18/2012 E60 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC
ROOF OFF BARN WHICH DOWNED POWER LINES AT RESIDENCE
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABR1200128
$$
TROGDON
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Subscription probe for WX-LSR - please ignore
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KFSD [191008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KFSD 191008
LSRFSD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
508 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 AM HAIL NE SIOUX CITY 42.50N 96.39W
05/19/2012 E0.75 INCH WOODBURY IA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BT
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LSRFSD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
508 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 AM HAIL NE SIOUX CITY 42.50N 96.39W
05/19/2012 E0.75 INCH WOODBURY IA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BT
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 190817
SWOD48
SPC AC 190816
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN THE MEAN THAT AN UPPER TOUGH WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 26/12Z. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE LACK
OF MOVEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM EAST COAST TROUGH AND EXPECTED
INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO IT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID OR EARLY MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN EJECTING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITH MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
MID WEEK THAN THE ECMWF. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS ISSUE AND IN THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN
PLACE THE PREDICTABILITY OF SEVERE WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL THESE
ISSUES ARE RESOLVED.
..DARROW.. 05/19/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 190816
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN THE MEAN THAT AN UPPER TOUGH WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 26/12Z. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE LACK
OF MOVEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM EAST COAST TROUGH AND EXPECTED
INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO IT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID OR EARLY MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN EJECTING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITH MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
MID WEEK THAN THE ECMWF. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS ISSUE AND IN THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN
PLACE THE PREDICTABILITY OF SEVERE WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL THESE
ISSUES ARE RESOLVED.
..DARROW.. 05/19/2012
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 190703
SWODY3
SPC AC 190702
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE
BASE OF EAST COAST U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH BY 22/12Z. WHILE
RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK ASCENT ARE NOTED
WITH THIS FEATURE IT DOES NOT APPEAR MEANINGFUL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC BOUNDARY AS IT
MIGRATES SEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. WHILE THIS FRONTAL
ZONE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY FOCUS A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH MODESTLY BUOYANT.
LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
SFC WIND SHIFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS IL/IND INTO WRN OH WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY
INTO THE NRN GULF STATES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN
SEVERE LEVELS AS SHEAR PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF LITTLE MORE THAN
PULSE/MULTI-CELL TYPE UPDRAFTS.
OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF
THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NERN NM. THIS REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE A BIT STRONGER SHEAR BUT FORECAST INSTABILITY
APPEARS A BIT TOO WEAK TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL MOST STORMS ACROSS THE U.S...WHILE ROBUST AT TIMES...SHOULD
PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND.
..DARROW.. 05/19/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 190702
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE
BASE OF EAST COAST U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH BY 22/12Z. WHILE
RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK ASCENT ARE NOTED
WITH THIS FEATURE IT DOES NOT APPEAR MEANINGFUL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC BOUNDARY AS IT
MIGRATES SEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. WHILE THIS FRONTAL
ZONE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY FOCUS A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH MODESTLY BUOYANT.
LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
SFC WIND SHIFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS IL/IND INTO WRN OH WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY
INTO THE NRN GULF STATES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN
SEVERE LEVELS AS SHEAR PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF LITTLE MORE THAN
PULSE/MULTI-CELL TYPE UPDRAFTS.
OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF
THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NERN NM. THIS REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE A BIT STRONGER SHEAR BUT FORECAST INSTABILITY
APPEARS A BIT TOO WEAK TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL MOST STORMS ACROSS THE U.S...WHILE ROBUST AT TIMES...SHOULD
PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND.
..DARROW.. 05/19/2012
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KRIW [190639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KRIW 190639
LSRRIW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1239 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0318 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW RIVERTON 43.02N 108.45W
05/18/2012 M59.00 MPH FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER
0320 PM TSTM WND GST RIVERTON 43.04N 108.42W
05/18/2012 M77.00 MPH FREMONT WY ASOS
0328 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE RIVERTON 43.04N 108.38W
05/18/2012 E70.00 MPH FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE
ESTIMATED 70 MPH AND BLOWING DEBRIS AROUND AN OUTDOOR
EVENT AT A LOCAL RETAIL STORE. PEA-SIZED HAIL ALSO
REPORTED.
0350 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N GREEN MOUNTAIN 42.34N 107.57W
05/18/2012 M63.00 MPH FREMONT WY MESONET
0405 PM HAIL 20 WNW CASPER 42.94N 106.69W
05/18/2012 E0.25 INCH NATRONA WY EMERGENCY MNGR
2 TO 3 INCHES OF HAIL PILED UP ALONG HIGHWAY 20/26
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 20 AND 23 WEST OF CASPER.
0444 PM HAIL 8 N CASPER 42.95N 106.33W
05/18/2012 E0.25 INCH NATRONA WY EMERGENCY MNGR
AROUND 2 INCHES OF HAIL FELL ALONG INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 195 AND 200 NORTH OF CASPER. MOST OF THE
HAIL WAS SMALLER THAN PEA SIZE.
&&
$$
WOLCOTT
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LSRRIW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1239 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0318 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW RIVERTON 43.02N 108.45W
05/18/2012 M59.00 MPH FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER
0320 PM TSTM WND GST RIVERTON 43.04N 108.42W
05/18/2012 M77.00 MPH FREMONT WY ASOS
0328 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE RIVERTON 43.04N 108.38W
05/18/2012 E70.00 MPH FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE
ESTIMATED 70 MPH AND BLOWING DEBRIS AROUND AN OUTDOOR
EVENT AT A LOCAL RETAIL STORE. PEA-SIZED HAIL ALSO
REPORTED.
0350 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N GREEN MOUNTAIN 42.34N 107.57W
05/18/2012 M63.00 MPH FREMONT WY MESONET
0405 PM HAIL 20 WNW CASPER 42.94N 106.69W
05/18/2012 E0.25 INCH NATRONA WY EMERGENCY MNGR
2 TO 3 INCHES OF HAIL PILED UP ALONG HIGHWAY 20/26
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 20 AND 23 WEST OF CASPER.
0444 PM HAIL 8 N CASPER 42.95N 106.33W
05/18/2012 E0.25 INCH NATRONA WY EMERGENCY MNGR
AROUND 2 INCHES OF HAIL FELL ALONG INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 195 AND 200 NORTH OF CASPER. MOST OF THE
HAIL WAS SMALLER THAN PEA SIZE.
&&
$$
WOLCOTT
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KRIW [190638]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS55 KRIW 190638
LSRRIW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1238 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0318 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW RIVERTON 43.02N 108.45W
05/18/2012 M59.00 MPH FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER
0320 PM TSTM WND GST RIVERTON 43.04N 108.42W
05/18/2012 M77.00 MPH FREMONT WY ASOS
0328 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE RIVERTON 43.04N 108.38W
05/18/2012 E70.00 MPH FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE
ESTIMATED 70 MPH AND BLOWING DEBRIS AROUND AN OUTDOOR
EVENT AT A LOCAL RETAIL STORE. PEA-SIZED HAIL ALSO
REPORTED.
0350 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N GREEN MOUNTAIN 42.34N 107.57W
05/18/2012 M63.00 MPH FREMONT WY MESONET
0405 PM HAIL 20 WNW CASPER 42.94N 106.69W
05/18/2012 E0.25 INCH NATRONA WY EMERGENCY MNGR
2 TO 3 INCHES OF HAIL PILED UP ALONG HIGHWAY 20/26
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 20 AND 23 WEST OF CASPER.
0444 PM HAIL 8 N CASPER 42.95N 106.33W
05/18/2012 E0.25 INCH NATRONA WY EMERGENCY MNGR
AROUND 2 INCHES OF HAIL FELL ALONG INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 195 AND 200 NORTH OF CASPER. MOST OF THE
HAIL WAS SMALLER THAN PEA SIZE.
&&
$$
WOLCOTT
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LSRRIW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1238 AM MDT SAT MAY 19 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0318 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW RIVERTON 43.02N 108.45W
05/18/2012 M59.00 MPH FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER
0320 PM TSTM WND GST RIVERTON 43.04N 108.42W
05/18/2012 M77.00 MPH FREMONT WY ASOS
0328 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE RIVERTON 43.04N 108.38W
05/18/2012 E70.00 MPH FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE
ESTIMATED 70 MPH AND BLOWING DEBRIS AROUND AN OUTDOOR
EVENT AT A LOCAL RETAIL STORE. PEA-SIZED HAIL ALSO
REPORTED.
0350 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N GREEN MOUNTAIN 42.34N 107.57W
05/18/2012 M63.00 MPH FREMONT WY MESONET
0405 PM HAIL 20 WNW CASPER 42.94N 106.69W
05/18/2012 E0.25 INCH NATRONA WY EMERGENCY MNGR
2 TO 3 INCHES OF HAIL PILED UP ALONG HIGHWAY 20/26
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 20 AND 23 WEST OF CASPER.
0444 PM HAIL 8 N CASPER 42.95N 106.33W
05/18/2012 E0.25 INCH NATRONA WY EMERGENCY MNGR
AROUND 2 INCHES OF HAIL FELL ALONG INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 195 AND 200 NORTH OF CASPER. MOST OF THE
HAIL WAS SMALLER THAN PEA SIZE.
&&
$$
WOLCOTT
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0835
ACUS11 KWNS 190551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190551
SDZ000-NEZ000-190715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD...NRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190551Z - 190715Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A HAIL THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS ACROSS CNTRL SD AND NRN NEB
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
FROM NRN NEB NWD INTO NCNTRL SD. THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AN
AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KT EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. ALTHOUGH
THE AIRMASS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE STABLE...A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN
DRIVE A WEDGE DOWN THROUGH THE COOLER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
..BROYLES.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 45599862 45829907 45879943 45769968 45539986 45210002
44490056 43880091 43270111 42380083 42040033 41980002
42389948 43289928 44039853 44799794 45599862
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190551
SDZ000-NEZ000-190715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD...NRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190551Z - 190715Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A HAIL THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS ACROSS CNTRL SD AND NRN NEB
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
FROM NRN NEB NWD INTO NCNTRL SD. THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AN
AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KT EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. ALTHOUGH
THE AIRMASS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE STABLE...A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN
DRIVE A WEDGE DOWN THROUGH THE COOLER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
..BROYLES.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 45599862 45829907 45879943 45769968 45539986 45210002
44490056 43880091 43270111 42380083 42040033 41980002
42389948 43289928 44039853 44799794 45599862
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