MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0838

ACUS11 KWNS 191849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191849
MNZ000-WIZ000-192015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191849Z - 192015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. A FEW STORMS WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH A WW DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 1830Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD FROM N-CNTRL MN INTO EXTREME SERN SD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM ARE AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE HEATING IS DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
WEAKENING CINH. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
CUMULUS GROWTH LIFTING NWD TOWARD NERN MN. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HRS. VWP/S AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER
OF S-SWLY FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FROM 20-40 KT. THESE WIND PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...

LAT...LON 43579632 46209537 48579465 48709274 47789121 45059304
43549476 43579632

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