KILM [300145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 300145
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
945 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0906 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W OGDEN 34.27N 77.84W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC PUBLIC

WATER COVERING PORTIONS OF WOOD SORRELL ROAD MAKING IT
IMPASSABLE.

&&

$$

WEISS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 687

WWUS20 KWNS 300140
SEL7
SPC WW 300140
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-301100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 687
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
940 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 940 PM
UNTIL 700 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ELIZABETH
CITY NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...COASTAL FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT WWD OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NNWWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AMBIENT AIR MASS ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE COASTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOIST...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED. AS
SUCH...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF A COUPLE TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 16030.

...MEAD

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KMHX [300133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 300133
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
932 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM FLOOD 5 NNW CAMP LEJEUNE CENT 34.76N 77.40W
09/29/2010 ONSLOW NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER AT THE INTERSECTION OF WESTERN BLVD AND BRYNN
MARR RD WITH POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURE.

&&

$$

LPAGANO

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KMHX [300130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 300130
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0927 PM FLOOD 4 NE MAPLE HILL 34.70N 77.66W
09/29/2010 ONSLOW NC PUBLIC

HIGH WATER ON HWY 53 NEAR THE PENDER-ONSLOW COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

LPAGANO

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KILM [300100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 300100
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
900 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N WILLARD 34.70N 77.98W
09/29/2010 PENDER NC PUBLIC

700 BLOCK OF WILLARD RAILROAD STREET CLOSED DUE TO WATER
COVERING THE ROAD.

&&

$$

WEISS

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KILM [300056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 300056
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
855 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NW OGDEN 34.28N 77.82W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC PUBLIC

WATER COVERING THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF TORCHWOOD ROAD MAKING
IT NEARLY IMPASSABLE TO SUVS.

&&

$$

WEISS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1905

ACUS11 KWNS 300043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300042
NCZ000-SCZ000-300215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 300042Z - 300215Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT AND A WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF NICOLE FEEDING NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE FROM SC AND EXTENDS NNEWD
INTO THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS ERN NC AS A SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY MOVE A 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
TOWARDS ERN NC TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD INCREASE BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND
SHEAR PROFILES MARKEDLY DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM MOREHEAD CITY NC SHOWS A MUCAPE OF 1700 J/KG WITH SFC
TO 1 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING STORMS AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT
BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE BY LATE THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 09/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 36367590 36537662 36407738 36057789 34737917 33397993
32877973 33007908 33827752 34357661 35237560 35917558
36367590

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KILM [300039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 300039
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
839 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0749 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNW MAPLE HILL 34.70N 77.73W
09/29/2010 PENDER NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NC HWY 50 CLOSED FROM NC HWY 53 TO THE DUPLIN COUNTY LINE
DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

$$

WEISS

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KILM [300034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 300034
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
834 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 E CASTLE HAYNE 34.36N 77.86W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC PUBLIC

WATER CROSSING THE ROAD IN 3 PLACES ALONG HOLLY SHELTER
ROAD NEAR HAMPSTEAD.

&&

$$

WEISS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300032
SWODY1
SPC AC 300030

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN SC THROUGH ERN NC AND
SERN VA...

...NERN SC...ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA...

EARLY THIS EVENING A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN VA SWD THROUGH
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND NRN FL. LOW 70S DEWPOINTS EXIST ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A VORT MAX EMBEDDED
WITHIN UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION POINT OFF THE GA COAST. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LIFT NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. A STRENGTHENING SELY
LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING FROM THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWWD
ADVECTION OF RICHER MOISTURE THROUGH ERN SC...NC AND SERN VA AS WELL
AS MAINTAIN LARGE HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND EAST OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR ROTATING STORMS
OFFSHORE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND. MODEST DESTABILIZATION
FARTHER WWD MAY OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO WWD ADVECTION OF RICHER
MOISTURE...SUGGESTING THAT WITH TIME STORMS MAY SURVIVE FARTHER
INLAND. THOUGH THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SERVE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT...SOME RISK FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
PERSIST.

..DIAL.. 09/30/2010

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KILM [292330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 292330
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0729 PM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC PUBLIC

SMITH CREEK IS OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS AND FLOWING ACROSS
NORTH KERR AVENUE

&&

$$

MAC

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KILM [292308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 292308
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
707 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 PM FLASH FLOOD CAROLINA BEACH 34.04N 77.90W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SOUTH LAKE PARK ROAD IN CAROLINA BEACH IS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING. THE LAKE ADJACENT TO THE ROAD HAS OVERFLOWED
AND IS FLOWING ACROSS THE ROADWAY.

&&

$$

MAC

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KAKQ [292231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 292231
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
631 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM FLASH FLOOD AHOSKIE 36.29N 76.99W
09/29/2010 HERTFORD NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

ST JOHN MENOLA ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. HIGH WATER
AFFECTING SEVERAL ROADS IN TOWN.

&&

$$

JFOSTER

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KAKQ [292228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 292228
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
628 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM FLASH FLOOD MURFREESBORO 36.44N 77.10W
09/29/2010 HERTFORD NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

PINE TOP ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

&&

$$

JFOSTER

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KGSP [292218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KGSP 292218
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
618 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 1 NNW ROBBINSVILLE 35.34N 83.81W
09/27/2010 E0.75 INCH GRAHAM NC TRAINED SPOTTER

MINOR LEAF DAMAGE

0700 PM HAIL CORNELIA 34.51N 83.53W
09/27/2010 E0.75 INCH HABERSHAM GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF PENNY SIZE HAIL.

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S EASTANOLEE 34.51N 83.26W
09/27/2010 STEPHENS GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

AT LEAST FOUR TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN BY THE STORM AND
THERE WERE POWER OUTAGES. A TREE WAS DOWN ON RIDGE
ROAD...BROAD RIVER ROAD AND WEST SPRING WOODS ROAD. ALSO
A TREE DOWN ON PRATHER BRIDGE ROAD WHICH IS NORTH
NORTHEAST OF TOCCOA.

0846 PM TSTM WND DMG IVA 34.31N 82.66W
09/27/2010 ANDERSON SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN IVA.

0848 PM TSTM WND DMG ANDERSON 34.52N 82.65W
09/27/2010 ANDERSON SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

2 TREES DOWN IN ANDERSON.

0910 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W DONALDS 34.38N 82.38W
09/27/2010 ABBEVILLE SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

SEVERAL TREES DOWN JUST WESTOFDONALDS.

0912 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW WILLIAMSTON 34.61N 82.50W
09/27/2010 ANDERSON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

0925 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S HICKORY TAVERN 34.51N 82.19W
09/27/2010 LAURENS SC TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON NEALY FERRY RD.

0927 PM HAIL 6 S HICKORY TAVERN 34.43N 82.19W
09/27/2010 E1.00 INCH LAURENS SC TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH HAIL 1 MILE SOUTH OF BOYD MILL POND.

0933 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE MARIETTA 35.06N 82.46W
09/27/2010 GREENVILLE SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN E AND NE OF MARIETTA.

0935 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE TIGERVILLE 35.12N 82.31W
09/27/2010 GREENVILLE SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

2 TREES DOWN NE OF TIGERVILLE.

0940 PM HAIL 2 W TRYON 35.21N 82.27W
09/27/2010 E0.50 INCH POLK NC TRAINED SPOTTER

1/2 INCH HAIL WEST OF TRYON.

0942 PM TSTM WND DMG TRYON 35.21N 82.24W
09/27/2010 POLK NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND TRYON.

0942 PM TSTM WND DMG TRYON 35.21N 82.24W
09/27/2010 POLK NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TRYON FD REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND
TRYON...WITH SEVERAL BLOCKING ROADWAYS. ALSO TWO HOMES
WITH STRUCTURE DAMAGE FROM FALLING TREES OR TREE LIMBS.

1105 PM TORNADO 4 SW MORGANTON 35.70N 81.75W
09/27/2010 BURKE NC NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO VERIFIED BY NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM. STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE TO APPROXIMATELY 8 HOMES. TREES FELLED OR SNAPPED.
DEBRIS THROWN DURING STORM.

1117 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW MORGANTON 35.72N 81.72W
09/27/2010 BURKE NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOME.

&&
THIS IS A PRELIMINARY SUMMARY COMPILED FOR THE PURPOSE OF A REVIEW OF
THE EVENTS ON 27 SEPTEMBER.
$$

MOORE

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KAKQ [292155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 292155
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM TORNADO HARVEY POINT 36.09N 76.32W
09/29/2010 PERQUIMANS NC EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT CAME ONSHORE. NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES DOWN...BUT NO MAJOR DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

$$

MRUSNAK

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KCHS [292140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 292140
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
540 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE HILTON HEAD ISLAN 32.20N 80.70W
09/29/2010 M3.30 INCH BEAUFORT SC MESONET

A LOCAL MEDIA MESONET STATION HAS REPORTED 3.30 INCHES OF
RAIN ON HILTON HEAD ISLAND.

&&

$$

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KILM [292131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 292131
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
531 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0529 PM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC EMERGENCY MNGR

BRUNT MILL CREEK IS OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS AND FLOODING

CHESTNUT STREET...MARKET STREET AND PRINCESS PLACE DRIVE.

&&

$$

MAC

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KCHS [292101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 292101
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
501 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 S HILTON HEAD ISLAND 32.16N 80.75W
09/29/2010 BEAUFORT SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE INTERSECTION OF WILLIAM HILTON PARKWAY AND NEW
ORLEANS ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO WATER ON THE ROADWAYS.

0455 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 ESE HILTON HEAD ISLAN 32.20N 80.69W
09/29/2010 BEAUFORT SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE LANE OF FOLLY FIELD ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO WATER ON
THE ROADWAY.

&&

$$

JHP

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KCHS [292046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCHS 292046
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
446 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 S HILTON HEAD ISLAND 32.18N 80.75W
09/29/2010 BEAUFORT SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

WARNING POINT REPORTED BOTH POPE AVENUE AND SEA PINE
CIRCLE ARE CLOSED TO DUE WATER BLOCKING THE ROADWAYS.

&&

$$

JHP

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KKEY [292045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 292045
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0416 PM FLOOD LOWER MATECUMBE KEY 24.86N 80.72W
09/29/2010 UPPER KEYS IN MONR FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

AT 416 PM EDT THE ISLAMORADA FIRE CHIEF REPORTED SEVERE
FLOODING ON LOWER AND UPPER MATECUMBE KEYS. SOME AREAS ON
THE BAY SIDE OF LOWER MATECUMBE HAD 3 TO 4 FEET OF
FRESHWATER FLOODING IN HOMES.

&&

$$

DDR

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KCHS [292042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 292042
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
442 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 S HILTON HEAD ISLAND 32.18N 80.75W
09/29/2010 U0.00 INCH BEAUFORT SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

WARNING POINT REPORTED BOTH POPE AVENUE AND SEA PINE
CIRCLE ARE CLOSED TO DUE WATER BLOCKING THE ROADWAYS.

&&

$$

JHP

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KCTP [292023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 292023
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
423 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM TORNADO 2 E PARADISE 40.01N 76.08W
09/27/2010 LANCASTER PA NWS STORM SURVEY

EFO TORNADO CONFIRMED IN PARADISE TWP IN LANCASTER
COUNTY. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED ESTIMATED AT 85 MPH.

&&

$$

CE/MS

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KCHS [291956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 291956
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
355 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0348 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S HILTON HEAD ISLAND 32.16N 80.76W
09/29/2010 U0.00 INCH BEAUFORT SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER IS BLOCKING PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 278 ON HILTON HEAD
ISLAND. LAW ENFOREMENT IS REDIRECTING TRAFFIC DOWN TO TWO
LANES.

&&

$$

JHP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291953
SWODY1
SPC AC 291951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NC AND SERN
VA...

.CHANGES TO PREV FCST... NONE.

ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. MESOLOW
HAS MOVED NWD THROUGH ERN NC WITH COASTAL AND WEDGE FRONT HAVING
MADE A SLIGHT EWD MOTION OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN IN ITS
WAKE. EXPECT AS THE NEXT PVA SPOKE ROTATES NWD FROM N FL
TONIGHT...RICH THETA-E AIR MASS WILL EDGE INLAND AGAIN COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG LLVL SHEAR.

..RACY.. 09/29/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010/

...FL...
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NEAR CUBA TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FL BY THIS EVENING /PER
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP THE FL MAINLAND IN THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES HAS DIMINISHED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT A BRIEF SPIN UP CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

...NC/VA...
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A PROCESS OF RAPID LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE CAROLINAS. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC BY
MIDNIGHT...YIELDING 3KM SRH VALUES OF 250-450 M2/S2. THE COASTAL
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
AND DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
AND VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS NC/SOUTHEAST VA
OVERNIGHT.

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KILM [291946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291946
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC PUBLIC

2000 BLOCK OF PRINCESS PLACE AND CHESTNUT STREET ARE BOTH
UNDERWATER

&&

$$

MAC

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KILM [291941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291941
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
341 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE SHALLOTTE 33.95N 78.35W
09/29/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

PARTRIDGE PLACE AND BLUE JAY OFF GRAY BRIDGE IS
IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING

&&

$$

MAC

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KILM [291938]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291938
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
338 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE WINNABOW 34.12N 78.06W
09/29/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

JACK AND JILL WAY OFF FUNSTON ROAD SE IS IMPASSABLE DUE
TO FLOODING

&&

$$

MAC

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KILM [291933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291933
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
333 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0328 PM FLASH FLOOD LELAND 34.24N 78.05W
09/29/2010 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

PINE HARVEST ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

$$

MAC

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KILM [291926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291926
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC PUBLIC

S. COLLEGE BETWEEN MAPLE AND S. KERR RIGHT LANE S/B IS
COMPLETELY FLOODED.

&&

$$

MAC

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KILM [291923]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291923
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0717 AM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC BROADCAST MEDIA

S. COLLEGE ROAD AND WRIGHTSVILLE AVENUE IS
FLOODED...WATER ABOUT 6 INCHES DEEP

&&

$$

MAC

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KCHS [291919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 291919
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
319 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM WATER SPOUT TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
09/29/2010 CHATHAM GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

TYBEE ISLAND BEACH PATROL REPORTED TWO WATERSPOUTS 1 TO 2
MILES OFFSHORE NEAR THE PIER. THEY LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES
AND HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.

&&

$$

JHP

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KMHX [291915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291915
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM FLOOD 3 SSW TRENTON 35.02N 77.37W
09/29/2010 JONES NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER ON SEVERAL ROADWAYS INCLUDING STATE RD- OLD
KINSTON TRENTON RD NEAR HWY 58

&&

$$

PAGANO

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KMHX [291912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291912
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM FLOOD ESE KENANSVILLE 34.96N 77.96W
09/29/2010 DUPLIN NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER ON SEVERAL ROADWAYS INCLUDING EDMIN BRISON RD

&&

$$

PAGANO

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KMHX [291910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291910
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
309 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM FLOOD 4 NNE JAMES CITY 35.13N 77.00W
09/29/2010 CRAVEN NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER ACROSS HWY 55 NEAR HYMAN RD.

&&

$$

PAGANO

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KILM [291807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291807
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
207 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0151 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 E ROCKY POINT 34.43N 77.83W
09/29/2010 PENDER NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SR 1517 REBECCA KENNEDY ROAD IS CLOSED FROM SR1636 MARTIN
MARIETTA ACCESS RD TO SR 1518 MOORE TOWN RD DUE TO
FLOODING.

&&

$$

MAC

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KILM [291739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KILM 291739
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
138 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0132 PM FLOOD 2 NW BURGAW 34.57N 77.95W
09/29/2010 PENDER NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SR-1517 EASTBOUND IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ACROSS
ROADWAY

&&

$$

MAC

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KILM [291733]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291733
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
133 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0132 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NW BURGAW 34.57N 77.95W
09/29/2010 PENDER NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SR-1517 EASTBOUND IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ACROSS
ROADWAY

&&

$$

MAC

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KILM [291731]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291731
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
131 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0127 PM FLASH FLOOD 8 S BURGAW 34.43N 77.93W
09/29/2010 PENDER NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SR-1407 IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ACROSS THE BRIDGE

&&

$$

MAC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 291715
SWODY2
SPC AC 291714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC NWD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NE AL WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NNE INTO THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NWD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ERN NC INTO SCNTRL PA BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND UPSTATE NY BY EVENING.

TO THE W...UPPER RIDGE WILL AGGRANDIZE NWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AS A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.

...ERN NC NWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
STRONG BELT OF LOW/MID-LEVEL SLY FLOW /H85 OF 65+KT/ ALONG ERN PARTS
OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE NWD FROM ERN NC INTO NY/NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VERY STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR WILL
RESULT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW.
SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LWR/MID 70S WILL FLOOD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF VA NWD INTO SCNTRL/SERN PA AND NJ. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SITUATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH RAPIDLY MOVING
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON FROM
ERN NC/TIDEWATER VA NWD INTO SCNTRL/SERN PA AND SRN/CNTRL NJ.

..RACY.. 09/29/2010

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KMHX [291701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291701
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
101 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM FLOOD VANCEBORO 35.30N 77.16W
09/29/2010 CRAVEN NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

911 CENTER REPORTED...HIGH WATER ALONG HWY 43 NORTH OF
BUTLER FORD RD.

&&

$$

BMELENDE

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KILM [291654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291654
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1253 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1251 PM FLASH FLOOD SURF CITY 34.42N 77.56W
09/29/2010 PENDER NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS ROADS ALONG SOUTH SHORE DRIVE ARE
FLOODED...NAMELY THE 1500...1700...1900 AND 2400 AREAS
ALONG SOUTH SHORE DRIVE.

&&

$$

MAC

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KMHX [291649]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291649
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1249 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM FLOOD BLACK JACK 35.52N 77.24W
09/29/2010 PITT NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

911 CENTER REPORTED...HIGH WATER BETWEEN NC 33 AND AVON
RD.

&&

$$

BMELENDE

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KMHX [291634]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291634
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1231 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM FLOOD 7 NE GREENVILLE 35.67N 77.29W
09/29/2010 PITT NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER ALONG NC 903 SOUTH OF TYLER RD IN STOKES.

&&

$$

BMELENDE

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KMHX [291631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291631
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1231 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM FLOOD 7 NE GREENVILLE 35.67N 77.29W
09/29/2010 PITT NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER ALONG NC 903 SOUTH OF TYLER RD IN STROKES.

&&

$$

BMELENDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291627
SWODY1
SPC AC 291626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC AND
SOUTHEAST VA...

...FL...
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NEAR CUBA TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FL BY THIS EVENING /PER
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP THE FL MAINLAND IN THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES HAS DIMINISHED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT A BRIEF SPIN UP CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

...NC/VA...
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A PROCESS OF RAPID LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE CAROLINAS. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC BY
MIDNIGHT...YIELDING 3KM SRH VALUES OF 250-450 M2/S2. THE COASTAL
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
AND DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
AND VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS NC/SOUTHEAST VA
OVERNIGHT.

..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/29/2010

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KMHX [291605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291605
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1205 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM FLOOD JACKSONVILLE 34.76N 77.40W
09/29/2010 ONSLOW NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

911 CENTER REPORTED...POWER POLE DOWN ON PONY FARM RD DUE
TO SATURATED GROUND.

&&

$$

BMELENDE

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KMHX [291601]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291601
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1201 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1105 AM FLOOD JACKSONVILLE 34.76N 77.40W
09/29/2010 ONSLOW NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED IN THE JACKSONVILLE AREA.

&&

$$

BMELENDE

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KMHX [291547]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291547
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1146 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM FLOOD POLLOCKSVILLE 35.01N 77.22W
09/29/2010 JONES NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER ALONG POLE POCOSIN RD.

&&

$$

BMELENDE

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KMHX [291540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291540
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1140 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM FLOOD POLLOCKSVILLE 35.01N 77.22W
09/29/2010 JONES NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER ALONG HWY 17 FROM POLLOCKSVILLE TO MAYSVILLE.

&&

$$

BMELENDE

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KMHX [291444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 291444
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1044 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLOOD JACKSONVILLE 34.76N 77.40W
09/29/2010 ONSLOW NC TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED STREET FLOODING ACROSS RIGGS
ROAD IN JACKSONVILLE.

&&

$$

DAG/BM

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KILM [291429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291429
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM FLASH FLOOD HAMPSTEAD 34.37N 77.70W
09/29/2010 PENDER NC EMERGENCY MNGR

6 INCHES OF WATER WAS REPORTED ON US 17 IN AREAS FROM
HAMPSTEAD NORTH TO SURF CITY

&&

$$

CAROPOLO

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KMFL [291408]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 291408
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1008 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM FLOOD 1 W PENNSUCO 25.90N 80.39W
09/29/2010 MIAMI-DADE FL AMATEUR RADIO

AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR RELAYED REPORT OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
OF WATER ON OKEECHOBEE ROAD AT THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE.

&&

$$

MOLLEDA

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KILM [291407]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KILM 291407
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1007 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC BROADCAST MEDIA

OLD MEARS ROAD AND BRICKLE AVE ARE COMPLETELY FLOODED AND
CLOSED.

&&

$$

CAROPOLO

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KILM [291355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291355
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
955 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC BROADCAST MEDIA

OLD MEARS ROAD AND BRICKLE AVE ARE COMPLETED FLOODED AND
CLOSED.

&&

$$

CAROPOLO

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KILM [291301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291301
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
901 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0851 AM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON 16TH STREET AND DAWSON ST IN
WILMINGTON.

&&

$$

CAROPOLO

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KILM [291300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291300
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
900 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0851 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 W LELAND 34.24N 78.08W
09/29/2010 BRUNSWICK NC BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON US 74/76 WEST OF US 17. LANE
CLOSURE IS BEING REPORTED.

&&

$$

CAROPOLO

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KILM [291257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 291257
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
857 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0851 AM FLASH FLOOD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/29/2010 NEW HANOVER NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

NORTHBOUND SECTION OF THE 300 BLOCK OF MARKET STREET IS
FLOODING AND IS CLOSED.

&&

$$

CAROPOLO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291234
SWODY1
SPC AC 291232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ALONG THE SE FL COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
ERN NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL PERSIST FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA NNEWD OVER SE FL TO ERN NC AND VA TIDEWATER REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. WITHIN THIS PLUME AND E OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM AND PASS NEAR THE SE FL COAST TODAY /SEE LATEST
NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/. A SEPARATE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
NRN AL/GA WILL ALSO EXERT INFLUENCE FARTHER N INTO THE
CAROLINAS...WHERE AT LEAST WEAK CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE.

...SE FL COAST TODAY...
THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS NEAR THE SE FL COAST WILL INCREASE SOME
TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN STRENGTHENS SLOWLY WHILE MOVING
NNEWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND SE FL. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE FL
IS ALREADY VERY MOIST /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE...PROVIDING A SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A TORNADO OR TWO PRIOR TO
CYCLONE PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

...ERN NC/VA TIDEWATER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE SEPARATE CYCLOGENESIS N OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT APPEARS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOWER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
SPREAD INLAND ON INCREASING SLY/SELY FLOW. POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN WILL
LIMIT BUOYANCY IN THE MOIST SECTOR...BUT MLCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NC. SRH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RATHER
DRAMATICALLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEVELOPING 60-70 KT LLJ...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN THE VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. TRAINING CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ERN
NC...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 09/29/2010

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KMFL [291109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 291109
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
709 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0707 AM HEAVY RAIN JUPITER 26.93N 80.10W
09/29/2010 M3.77 INCH PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

3.77 INCHES OF RAIN RECORDED IN JUPITER SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

$$

GREGORIA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1904

ACUS11 KWNS 291101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291100
FLZ000-291330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE FL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291100Z - 291330Z

TORNADO POTENTIAL...THOUGH BRIEF/MRGL AT FIRST...MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT
NEAR-COAST AREAS FROM UPPER KEYS TO PALM BEACH COUNTY DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING INLAND TO INCLUDE METRO CORRIDOR FROM
HST-PBI.

MIA VWP HODOGRAPHS HAVE BEEN SMALL...BUT STEADILY INCREASING IN SIZE
AND IN CURVATURE DURING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS CENTER OF TD 16
BEGAN CROSSING FL STRAITS BETWEEN CUBA AND KEYS. WEAKER HODOGRAPHS
HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN OBSERVED VWP AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS WITH WWD
EXTENT THROUGH KEYS...CONCURRENT WITH MORE NEBULOUS/WEAKER
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. THIS TENDENCY SHOULD CONTINUE...REDUCING
TORNADO THREAT FROM N THROUGH NW OF CENTER. FURTHER STRENGTHENING
OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED NE OF CENTER ALONG SERN FL COAST
AND UPPER KEYS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF IT BUILDS TO TS STRENGTH PER
NHC FCSTS. OVERNIGHT RADAR DATA HAVE SHOWN OCNL TSTM-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS OFFSHORE WITH MOST PERSISTENT/DEEPEST ECHOES...ALSO
INDICATING THAT GREATER SRH IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE. SO IS GREATEST
BUOYANCY...MLCAPE ESTIMATED 1000-1500 J/KG OVER WATER...OWING TO
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED THETAE THAT IS RELATED TO MARINE HEAT FLUXES
OFF GULF STREAM. STRENGTHENING SELY SFC WINDS WOULD ADVECT MORE OF
THIS AIR MASS AT LEAST A FEW MILES INLAND...PERHAPS ACROSS MUCH OF
MIAMI-DADE/BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTIES WITH TIME. MEANWHILE 0-1 KM
SRH 150-200 J/KG SHOULD OVERSPREAD GREATER MERIDIONAL EXTENT OF
COASTLINE AS FLOW JUST OFF SFC INTENSIFIES.

..EDWARDS.. 09/29/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 24958062 25148042 25238036 25258038 25208051 25238064
25458055 25958045 26638021 26878010 26848002 26508004
25928011 25658015 25738021 25558030 25388032 25318030
25498018 25468015 25168035 24958062

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290711
SWOD48
SPC AC 290711

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH
ABOUT SUN/D5 WITH LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ERN STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN A LACK OF INSTABILITY E OF THE ROCKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE.

WHILE THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER IN SOME FORM OVER THE ERN
CONUS...THERE IS MUCH DIFFERENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE AS A NEW TROUGH AFFECTS EITHER THE PACIFIC NW/GFS
SOLUTION/ OR THE ENTIRE W COAST/ECMWF SOLUTION/. REGARDLESS...THERE
IS LITTLE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL.. 09/29/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290659
SWODY3
SPC AC 290658

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE EXITING NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY
AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NWD INTO QUEBEC. BEHIND THIS
WAVE...A BROADER UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SWD FROM THE
PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. ASIDE FROM A FEW EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND...ISOLATED
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SIERRA.

..JEWELL.. 09/29/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 290635
SWODY2
SPC AC 290634

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GA WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN A NRN STREAM TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS SWD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC MERGING WITH A TROPICAL LOW. ALONG AND E OF THIS SFC
TROUGH...A TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL EXIST WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER 70S. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR...FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO NEW ENGLAND.

...ERN NC NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM ERN NC NWD INTO
NJ/PA/SRN NY WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. DURING THE DAY...A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRANSLATE NWD FROM NC/VA INTO NY BY 00Z. ALONG
AND E OF THE LOW TRACK...INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED. MUCAPE TO
AROUND 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED OVER ERN NC/VA...BUT DECREASING TO
AROUND 100 J/KG OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN TREMENDOUS SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 70+ KT AT 850 MB...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE OVER ERN NC INTO THE DELMARVA WHERE THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

..JEWELL.. 09/29/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290553
SWODY1
SPC AC 290552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NC TO SERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY FEATURING A
TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER AL/GA AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...ACTING TO REINFORCE THE
MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
TRACK NNE FROM THE NRN SIDE OF CUBA...ACROSS SERN FL THIS
AFTERNOON...TO OFF THE NERN FL/GA COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD DEVELOP N OF THE SERN FL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE SECOND
LOW FORMING E OF FL/N OF THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO TRACK NWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS/VA THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IF THIS LOW DOES DEVELOP...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS NERN SC/SERN NC LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. THE
28/12Z ECMWF HAS LESS SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...SINCE IT IS SLOWER WITH NWD SPEED OF
THE ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL IMPULSE.

...ERN CAROLINAS TO SERN VA...
ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
LOW TRACKING INLAND LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 28/12Z ECMWF
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 29/00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE OF DEEP SLY WIND FIELDS /50-60 KT/ FROM OFF THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BETWEEN 30/00-12Z.

SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL DRAW RICH MOISTURE INLAND
ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 30/00Z.
DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE INFLUX OF HIGH THETAE AIR IS EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS ERN NC/ FAR SERN
VA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...THE INCREASE IN WIND
FIELDS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /35-40 KT/ AND LARGE HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR AN
AFTER DARK TORNADO THREAT. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK HAS INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR ERN NC INTO FAR SERN VA.

...SE FL/UPPER KEYS...
NHC IS CURRENTLY INDICATING A TROPICAL STORM WILL HAVE FORMED BY 12Z
TODAY ALONG THE N SIDE OF CUBA...WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE FAR SERN PART OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS TRACK...MUCH OF
THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE TS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THUS...THIS
OUTLOOK IS ONLY INCLUDING A VERY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS THE
UPPER KEYS TO SERN FL FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..PETERS/HURLBUT.. 09/29/2010

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KDTX [290544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 290544
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
144 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0142 AM HEAVY RAIN ALGONAC 42.62N 82.53W
09/29/2010 M2.02 INCH ST. CLAIR MI TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL FOR SEP 28

&&

$$

BT

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 290540
SWODY2
SPC AC 290539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GA WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN A NRN STREAM TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS SWD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC MERGING WITH A TROPICAL LOW. ALONG AND E OF THIS SFC
TROUGH...A TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL EXIST WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER 70S. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR...FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO NEW ENGLAND.

...ERN NC NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM ERN NC NWD INTO
NJ/PA/SRN NY WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. DURING THE DAY...A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRANSLATE NWD FROM NC/VA INTO NY BY 00Z. ALONG
AND E OF THE LOW TRACK...INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED. MUCAPE TO
AROUND 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED OVER ERN NC/VA...BUT DECREASING TO
AROUND 100 J/KG OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN TREMENDOUS SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 70+ KT AT 850 MB...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE OVER ERN NC INTO THE DELMARVA WHERE THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

..JEWELL.. 09/29/2010

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KKEY [290519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 290519
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
119 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1213 AM TROPICAL STORM 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
09/29/2010 GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS...OR 40 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY THE
C-MAN STATION AT SAND KEY LIGHT. THIS GUST WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING RAINBAND.

&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KDTX [290505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 290505
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
105 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0101 AM HEAVY RAIN WARREN 42.49N 83.03W
09/29/2010 M1.18 INCH MACOMB MI PUBLIC

TOTAL FOR SEP 28

&&

$$

BT

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KKEY [290445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 290445
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1245 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 PM TROPICAL STORM 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
09/28/2010 GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS...OR 40 MPH...WAS REPORTED AT THE
C-MAN STATION AT SAND KEY. THIS WIND GUST WAS ASSOCIATED
BY A PASSING RAIN BAND.

&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KKEY [290438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 290438
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1238 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1119 PM TROPICAL STORM 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
09/28/2010 GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 37 KNOTS...OR 43 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY THE
C-MAN STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT. THIS GUST WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A RAIN BAND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

1130 PM TROPICAL STORM 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
09/28/2010 GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 40 KNOTS...OR 46 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY THE
C-MAN STATION AT MOLASSES REEF LIGHT. THIS WIND GUST WAS
ASSOCIATED BY A RAIN BAND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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