SWODY1
SPC AC 291626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC AND
SOUTHEAST VA...
...FL...
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NEAR CUBA TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FL BY THIS EVENING /PER
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP THE FL MAINLAND IN THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES HAS DIMINISHED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT A BRIEF SPIN UP CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
...NC/VA...
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A PROCESS OF RAPID LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE CAROLINAS. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC BY
MIDNIGHT...YIELDING 3KM SRH VALUES OF 250-450 M2/S2. THE COASTAL
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
AND DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
AND VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS NC/SOUTHEAST VA
OVERNIGHT.
..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/29/2010
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