KICT [152135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152135
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
435 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0433 PM HAIL 4 WNW LEON 37.71N 96.85W
03/15/2014 E0.75 INCH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ADK

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KICT [152126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152126
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
426 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM HAIL 4 ENE LEON 37.72N 96.73W
03/15/2014 E0.75 INCH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ADK

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KSJT [152121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 152121
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE POTOSI 32.37N 99.65W
03/15/2014 E60 MPH TAYLOR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED A WALL CLOUD 2 MILES TO THE
SOUTH.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400063

$$

DOLL

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KFGZ [152119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KFGZ 152119
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
218 PM MST SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM DUST STORM 16 ENE KAYENTA 36.81N 109.99W
03/15/2014 APACHE AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

VSBY UNDER A QUARTER MILE

0118 PM DUST STORM MANY FARMS 36.35N 109.62W
03/15/2014 APACHE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

VSBY UNDER A QUARTER MILE

0120 PM DUST STORM CHINLE 36.15N 109.58W
03/15/2014 APACHE AZ PARK SERVICE

VSBY UNDER A QUARTER MILE


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1400004 FGZ1400005 FGZ1400006

$$

JJ

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KSJT [152110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 152110
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
410 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM HAIL 2 SW ABILENE 32.43N 99.76W
03/15/2014 E1.00 INCH TAYLOR TX PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400062

$$

DOLL

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KSJT [152110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 152110
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
410 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM HAIL ABILENE 32.45N 99.73W
03/15/2014 E0.88 INCH TAYLOR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO NICKEL IN ABILENE


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400061

$$

HUBER

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KGLD [152104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 152104
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 PM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BURLINGTON 39.31N 102.27W
03/15/2014 M51.00 MPH KIT CARSON CO ASOS

0157 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GOODLAND 39.35N 101.71W
03/15/2014 M51.00 MPH SHERMAN KS ASOS


&&

$$

MK

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KICT [152053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152053
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
353 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL DOWNTOWN WICHITA 37.69N 97.34W
03/15/2014 E0.75 INCH SEDGWICK KS PUBLIC

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED VIA TWITTER.


&&

$$

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KICT [152041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152041
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
341 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM HAIL EAST WICHITA 37.68N 97.26W
03/15/2014 E0.88 INCH SEDGWICK KS STORM CHASER

REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF KELLOGG AND EDGEMOOR.


&&

$$

ADK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0184

ACUS11 KWNS 152041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152040
TXZ000-152315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN AND ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152040Z - 152315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN
THREATS. TIMING OF ANY WW ISSUANCE IN THIS AREA IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...LOW 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN
TX WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN
LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. MORNING
RAOB DATA FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TX AND LAKE CHARLES LA SHOWED A
PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 850-700 MB...AND INDEED BASED
ON MOTION AND CHARACTER OF THE CONVECTION THUS FAR...ACTIVITY DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE BASED WITHIN THE SFC LAYER. THE STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT...BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NWRN TX WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SERN TX...BUT
WILL AFFECT ECNTRL THROUGH NERN TX THIS EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE BANDS MAY IN TIME
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NWD. MEANWHILE...THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 50 KT ACROSS ERN TX WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOUSTON VWP HAS
SHOWN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SHEAR DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN A LIMITING
FACTOR...INCREASING HODOGRAPH SIZE COINCIDENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DEEPENING CONVECTION POSES A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 03/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30499601 31249698 32459624 33139519 32819463 31949461
30769476 30499601

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KICT [152040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KICT 152040
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL EAST WICHITA 37.68N 97.26W
03/15/2014 E0.88 INCH SEDGWICK KS BROADCAST MEDIA

NEAR INTERSECTION OF MOUNT VERNON AND OLIVER. COURTESY OF
KWCH STORM CHASER.


&&

$$

ADK

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KICT [152038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152038
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL EAST WICHITA 37.68N 97.26W
03/15/2014 E0.88 INCH SEDGWICK KS BROADCAST MEDIA

NEAR INTERSECTION OF MOUNT VERNON AND OLIVER.


&&

$$

ADK

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KICT [152031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152031
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
331 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL OAKLAWN 37.61N 97.30W
03/15/2014 E0.88 INCH SEDGWICK KS AMATEUR RADIO

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL BRIEFLY IN OAKLAWN OF
SOUTHEAST WICHITA. MOST OF THE HAIL WAS PEA SIZE.


&&

$$

ADK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151945
SWODY1
SPC AC 151943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN
TX/SRN OK ESEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...PORTIONS OF SRN OK/TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
FEW CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE OUTLOOK THIS UPDATE...AS PRIOR
REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK. STORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME
SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL TX VICINITY...WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL UPTICK IN ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THE STORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- IN AND NEAR WW #29.

LATER...A CONVECTIVE INCREASE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LA/SRN MS
VICINITY AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/NEWD OUT OF ERN TX AND THE NWRN GULF.
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/15/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...DOWNSTREAM
FROM AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE NOW ALONG THE W CST. LEAD
SRN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW ENTERING W TX SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL TX
TODAY AND THEN TURN NE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TNGT IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES NOW MOVING S ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS/CNTRL
RCKYS. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE FEATURES NOW OVER
NRN MEXICO WILL LIKELY TRACK MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH THE W TX
TROUGH AND REACH SE TX AND LA LATE TNGT/EARLY SUN.

AT THE SFC...LOOSELY ORGANIZED LEE LOWS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN HIGH PLNS SHOULD GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER W CNTRL TX LATER
TODAY. THIS LOW SHOULD THEN MOVE/DEVELOP ENE INTO SRN AR/NRN LA BY
12Z SUN AS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS E/SE BECOMES
BETTER-DEFINED AND ADVANCES NEWD INTO WRN/SRN MS.

CONTINUED LOW-LVL MOISTENING AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW...AND
CONTINUED E/NE ADVANCE OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
TSTM COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF TX AND OK TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FURTHER EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH EWD INTO
AR...LA...AND MS THROUGH EARLY SUN...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SVR
WEATHER.

...SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX...TODAY INTO TNGT...
E/NE MOTION OF W TX UPR TROUGH...AND CONTINUED MOISTENING TO ITS
E...WILL LIKELY FOSTER INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS FROM MUCH OF OK
SW AND SEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN TX TODAY THROUGH TNGT. GIVEN
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS RISING TO
AOA 12 C...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL GIVEN 40 KT
SW TO WSWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. BUT GIVEN
CURRENT SFC AND SATELLITE DATA...HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE TO INITIATE SCTD STORMS IN THE NRN HILL
COUNTRY OF TX LATER THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY MAY THEN CONSOLIDATE
INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO AND TRACK E/NEWD INTO N CNTRL OR NE
TX...WITH SOME RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND/OR WIND.

OTHER STORMS MAY FORM SOMEWHAT FARTHER S IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EWD
TOWARD THE WACO AREA...WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR AND RICHER
MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN STRENGTHENING/CONFLUENT 925-850 MB FLOW. SUCH
ACTIVITY...WERE IT TO FORM...ALSO SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A
LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER...WITH THE STORMS POSSIBLY EXTENDING A SVR
THREAT E/NE INTO THE ARKLATEX AND THE SABINE RVR BY MID-LATE EVE.
GIVEN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND ASCENT... POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST
FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL.

...LWR MS VLY TNGT/EARLY SUN...
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND BOTH VISIBLE AND DERIVED PW SATELLITE DATA
SUGGEST PRESENCE OF FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE ATTM OVER THE WRN THIRD OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F AND PW
AROUND 1.50 INCHES. THESE OBSERVATIONS LEND CREDENCE TO THE IDEA
THAT A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG WARM FRONT
CROSSING SRN LA AND MS TNGT/EARLY SUN...SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING
CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...AND POSSIBLY BY GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE UPR IMPULSES NOW IN NRN MEXICO.

WHILE TIME OF DAY WILL NOT FAVOR NEAR-SFC DESTABILIZATION...GIVEN
INCREASING LOW-LVL SHEAR /WITH SRH AOA 250 M2 PER S2/... MOISTENING
LOW-LVLS /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F/...AND WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AS 700 MB SWLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEARLY 50 KTS
ON SRN FRINGE OF MAIN UPR TROUGH.

...NRN OK AND SRN/ERN KS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
N OF MID/UPR-LVL CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES...SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER NRN OK AND KS
TODAY. MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTENING ALSO WILL OCCUR OVER THE
REGION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL
PLNS LEE CYCLONE. WHILE DEEP SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...MID-LVL TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL /AROUND
MINUS 20 C/...YIELDING MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WDLY SCTD
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WHILE MOST UPDRAFTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED
...THERMODYNAMIC SETUP SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY
LOCALLY DMGG GUSTS IN ANY LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS THAT DO FORM.

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 29

WWUS20 KWNS 151925
SEL9
SPC WW 151925
OKZ000-TXZ000-160300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING/STRENGTHENING IN WRN N TX AND OVER
WRN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY SHOULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AS ASSOCIATED W TX UPR IMPULSE ASSUMES
MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT AND CONTINUES ENE TOWARD/ACROSS WW REGION.
AREA VWP DATA SHOW ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LVL WIND FIELD
THAT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS DMGG WIND. THE
ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL MCS THAT CONTINUES MAINLY ENE INTO
NE TX/S CNTRL AND SE OK THROUGH MID-EVE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...CORFIDI

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KGJT [151907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 151907
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
107 PM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM SNOW OURAY 38.02N 107.67W
03/15/2014 M1.5 INCH OURAY CO TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY GRAUPEL FALLING


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1400769

$$

TB

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KGJT [151903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 151903
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
103 PM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW TELLURIDE 37.94N 107.81W
03/15/2014 E2.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL SINCE 630 AM


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1400768

$$

TB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0183

ACUS11 KWNS 151814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151813
TXZ000-OKZ000-152015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/N TX...EXTREME SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151813Z - 152015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTN. SCTD SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A
WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD/DIFFUSE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX WITH MODEST SE/SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTENING/GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST TWO
HOURS AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS WRN PORTIONS OF
N TX. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER EXPECT A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES OF
1000 - 1250 J/KG TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTN AS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
COMBINES WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER/LOCALLY GREATER HEATING.

LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES CENTRAL/NRN TX AND SRN OK...WITH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM
KFWS REFLECTS A STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR SPLITTING STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING/STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS/SRH ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LIMITING
THE OVERALL THREAT.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
BY 20Z.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 03/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 34399810 34389646 34029607 33609581 33099583 32419575
31859584 31389636 31299695 31209753 31149811 31179862
31359895 31629936 32069947 33009943 33549909 34399810

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KSGX [151800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 151800
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1059 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0851 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE TUSTIN FOOTHILLS 33.81N 117.71W
03/15/2014 M54 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET





&&

$$

NWS SAN DIEGO CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KSGX [151757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 151757
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1056 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 N PORTOLA HILLS 33.80N 117.62W
03/15/2014 M65 MPH ORANGE CA PUBLIC





&&

$$

NWS SAN DIEGO CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KSGX [151756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 151756
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1055 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 N PORTOLA HILLS 33.80N 117.62W
03/15/2014 M49 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET





&&

$$

NWS SAN DIEGO CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [151750]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151750
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM SNOW 2 E REDRIDGE 47.15N 88.72W
03/15/2014 M2.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI COOP OBSERVER

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.12 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KOTX [151747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KOTX 151747
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1044 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014


HERE IS A SUMMARY OF THE LOCAL STORM REPORTS (LSR) WE RECIEVED DUE
TO THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED WINDS THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY MARCH 14, 2014. IF YOU HAD ANY DAMAGE
OR STORM REPORTS FEEL FREE TO CONTACT US BY PHONE, EMAIL, ON
FACEBOOK OR BY TWITTER.


..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHENEY 47.49N 117.58W
03/14/2014 SPOKANE WA PUBLIC

40FT TREE REPORTED DOWN ON HOUSE FROM WINDS BEHIND SQUALL
LINE.

0215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE AIRWAY HEIGHTS 47.63N 117.57W
03/14/2014 M58.00 MPH SPOKANE WA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

WIND GUST BEHIND SQUALL LINE MEASURED AT 58MPH.

0215 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ROSALIA 47.24N 117.37W
03/14/2014 WHITMAN WA BROADCAST MEDIA

STRONG WINDS BLEW SIGN OFF MOUNTS ON SR 195 INTO VEHICLE
WINDSHIELD. DAMAGE ESTIMATED AT 4,500 DOLLARS.

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SPOKANE 47.67N 117.41W
03/14/2014 SPOKANE WA UTILITY COMPANY

2600 AVISTA CUSTOMERS REPORTED WITHOUT POWER AROUND THE
SPOKANE AREA DUE TO WIND.

0255 PM TSTM WND DMG ST. MARIES 47.31N 116.57W
03/14/2014 BENEWAH ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE REPORTED ON POWERLINES AND ACROSS TWO LANES ALONG
HIGHWAY 5 NEAR ST. MARIES.


&&

$$

FLIEHMAN

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KOTX [151745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KOTX 151745
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1044 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHENEY 47.49N 117.58W
03/14/2014 SPOKANE WA PUBLIC

40FT TREE REPORTED DOWN ON HOUSE FROM WINDS BEHIND SQUALL
LINE.

0215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE AIRWAY HEIGHTS 47.63N 117.57W
03/14/2014 M58.00 MPH SPOKANE WA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

WIND GUST BEHIND SQUALL LINE MEASURED AT 58MPH.

0215 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ROSALIA 47.24N 117.37W
03/14/2014 WHITMAN WA BROADCAST MEDIA

STRONG WINDS BLEW SIGN OFF MOUNTS ON SR 195 INTO VEHICLE
WINDSHIELD. DAMAGE ESTIMATED AT 4,500 DOLLARS.

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SPOKANE 47.67N 117.41W
03/14/2014 SPOKANE WA UTILITY COMPANY

2600 AVISTA CUSTOMERS REPORTED WITHOUT POWER AROUND THE
SPOKANE AREA DUE TO WIND.

0255 PM TSTM WND DMG ST. MARIES 47.31N 116.57W
03/14/2014 BENEWAH ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE REPORTED ON POWERLINES AND ACROSS TWO LANES ALONG
HIGHWAY 5 NEAR ST. MARIES.


&&

$$

FLIEHMAN

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KOTX [151744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 151744
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1043 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHENEY 47.49N 117.58W
03/14/2014 SPOKANE WA PUBLIC

40FT TREE REPORTED DOWN ON HOUSE FROM WINDS BEHIND SQUALL
LINE.

0215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE AIRWAY HEIGHTS 47.63N 117.57W
03/14/2014 M58.00 MPH SPOKANE WA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

WIND GUST BEHIND SQUALL LINE MEASURED AT 58MPH.

0215 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ROSALIA 47.24N 117.37W
03/14/2014 WHITMAN WA BROADCAST MEDIA

STRONG WINDS BLEW SIGN OFF MOUNTS ON SR 195 INTO VEHICLE
WINDSHIELD. DAMAGE ESTIMATED AT 4,500 DOLLARS.

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SPOKANE 47.67N 117.41W
03/14/2014 SPOKANE WA UTILITY COMPANY

2600 AVISTA CUSTOMERS REPORTED WITHOUT POWER AROUND THE
SPOKANE AREA DUE TO WIND.


&&

$$

FLIEHMAN

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KGLD [151734]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 151734
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1134 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM DUST STORM 9 NNE KIT CARSON 38.88N 102.73W
03/15/2014 CHEYENNE CO CO-OP OBSERVER

ESTIMATED ONE AND A HALF MILE VISIBILITY.


&&

$$

BRB

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KGLD [151725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 151725
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 AM DUST STORM 6 N WILD HORSE 38.91N 103.00W
03/15/2014 CHEYENNE CO CO-OP OBSERVER

ESTIMATED ONE MILE VISIBILITY.


&&

$$

BRB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151721
SWODY2
SPC AC 151720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND ERN GULF COASTAL REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE U.S.
THIS PERIOD. TROUGHING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF AN ERN CANADA VORTEX
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE/NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A THIRD
TROUGH -- A SHARP/POSITIVELY TILTED FEATURE CROSSING THE SRN
PLAINS/WRN GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD -- WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NE
U.S. AS A LOW RETREATS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE...A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NWRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. FINALLY...A SLOWLY WEAKENING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/SERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COASTAL REGION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF E
TX EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
REGION...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/PROGRESSING STORM SYSTEM. SOME
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER THE SERN LA/SRN MS
VICINITY. WITH TIME...THIS RISK SHOULD SPREAD EWD AS MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF AN
EXPECTED/MORE WIDESPREAD ZONE OF WARM-ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE TN VALLEY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO BE LARGELY VEERED...TORNADO RISK
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED -- PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COASTAL REGION...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE RISK. SOME RISK FOR EVOLUTION OF A SEMI-ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS NEAR THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PEAK ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF AL WOULD LIKELY CORRESPOND TO A PEAK IN SEVERE RISK...AFTER WHICH
THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 03/15/2014

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151631
SWODY1
SPC AC 151629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AND
WRN GULF CST INTO LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...DOWNSTREAM
FROM AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE NOW ALONG THE W CST. LEAD
SRN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW ENTERING W TX SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL TX
TODAY AND THEN TURN NE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TNGT IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES NOW MOVING S ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS/CNTRL
RCKYS. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE FEATURES NOW OVER
NRN MEXICO WILL LIKELY TRACK MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH THE W TX
TROUGH AND REACH SE TX AND LA LATE TNGT/EARLY SUN.

AT THE SFC...LOOSELY ORGANIZED LEE LOWS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN HIGH PLNS SHOULD GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER W CNTRL TX LATER
TODAY. THIS LOW SHOULD THEN MOVE/DEVELOP ENE INTO SRN AR/NRN LA BY
12Z SUN AS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS E/SE BECOMES
BETTER-DEFINED AND ADVANCES NEWD INTO WRN/SRN MS.

CONTINUED LOW-LVL MOISTENING AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW...AND
CONTINUED E/NE ADVANCE OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
TSTM COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF TX AND OK TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FURTHER EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH EWD INTO
AR...LA...AND MS THROUGH EARLY SUN...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SVR
WEATHER.

...SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX...TODAY INTO TNGT...
E/NE MOTION OF W TX UPR TROUGH...AND CONTINUED MOISTENING TO ITS
E...WILL LIKELY FOSTER INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS FROM MUCH OF OK
SW AND SEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN TX TODAY THROUGH TNGT. GIVEN
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS RISING TO
AOA 12 C...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL GIVEN 40 KT
SW TO WSWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. BUT GIVEN
CURRENT SFC AND SATELLITE DATA...HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE TO INITIATE SCTD STORMS IN THE NRN HILL
COUNTRY OF TX LATER THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY MAY THEN CONSOLIDATE
INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO AND TRACK E/NEWD INTO N CNTRL OR NE
TX...WITH SOME RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND/OR WIND.

OTHER STORMS MAY FORM SOMEWHAT FARTHER S IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EWD
TOWARD THE WACO AREA...WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR AND RICHER
MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN STRENGTHENING/CONFLUENT 925-850 MB FLOW. SUCH
ACTIVITY...WERE IT TO FORM...ALSO SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A
LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER...WITH THE STORMS POSSIBLY EXTENDING A SVR
THREAT E/NE INTO THE ARKLATEX AND THE SABINE RVR BY MID-LATE EVE.
GIVEN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND ASCENT... POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST
FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL.

...LWR MS VLY TNGT/EARLY SUN...
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND BOTH VISIBLE AND DERIVED PW SATELLITE DATA
SUGGEST PRESENCE OF FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE ATTM OVER THE WRN THIRD OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F AND PW
AROUND 1.50 INCHES. THESE OBSERVATIONS LEND CREDENCE TO THE IDEA
THAT A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG WARM FRONT
CROSSING SRN LA AND MS TNGT/EARLY SUN...SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING
CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...AND POSSIBLY BY GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE UPR IMPULSES NOW IN NRN MEXICO.

WHILE TIME OF DAY WILL NOT FAVOR NEAR-SFC DESTABILIZATION...GIVEN
INCREASING LOW-LVL SHEAR /WITH SRH AOA 250 M2 PER S2/... MOISTENING
LOW-LVLS /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F/...AND WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AS 700 MB SWLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEARLY 50 KTS
ON SRN FRINGE OF MAIN UPR TROUGH.

...NRN OK AND SRN/ERN KS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
N OF MID/UPR-LVL CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES...SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER NRN OK AND KS
TODAY. MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTENING ALSO WILL OCCUR OVER THE
REGION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL
PLNS LEE CYCLONE. WHILE DEEP SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...MID-LVL TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL /AROUND
MINUS 20 C/...YIELDING MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WDLY SCTD
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WHILE MOST UPDRAFTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED
...THERMODYNAMIC SETUP SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY
LOCALLY DMGG GUSTS IN ANY LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS THAT DO FORM.

..CORFIDI/BUNTING.. 03/15/2014

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KUNR [151630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 151630
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1030 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 AM SNOW 4 E FOUR CORNERS 44.08N 104.06W
03/15/2014 E4.5 INCH WESTON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 4 TO 5 INCHES

1027 AM SNOW 1 W O'NEIL PASS 44.20N 104.03W
03/15/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1030 AM SNOW 6 SSE LEAD 44.26N 103.74W
03/15/2014 E3.5 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 3 TO 4 INCHES


&&

$$

POJORLIE

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KBIS [151605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151605
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1105 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1104 AM SNOW MEDORA 46.91N 103.52W
03/15/2014 M1.0 INCH BILLINGS ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT


&&

$$

KROLAK

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KGGW [151603]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 151603
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1003 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW GLENDIVE 47.11N 104.71W
03/15/2014 E2.0 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

SNOW IS STILL FALLING.

0855 AM SNOW CRANE 47.58N 104.26W
03/15/2014 E2.0 INCH RICHLAND MT PUBLIC

SNOW TOTAL SO FAR. SNOW IS STILL FALLING.

0920 AM SNOW CULBERTSON 48.14N 104.52W
03/15/2014 E1.5 INCH ROOSEVELT MT PUBLIC

SNOW IS STILL FALLING.

0955 AM SNOW SIDNEY 47.72N 104.16W
03/15/2014 E2.0 INCH RICHLAND MT PUBLIC

SNOW FAR TOTAL SO FAR. SNOW IS STILL FALLING.


&&

$$

CAMPBELL

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KABQ [151554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 151554
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
953 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM SNOW 13 ESE CUBA 35.95N 106.75W
03/14/2014 M5.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0656 AM SNOW 4 ESE BLACK LAKE 36.28N 105.19W
03/15/2014 M3.0 INCH COLFAX NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 3 ESE ANGEL FIRE 36.38N 105.24W
03/15/2014 E4.0 INCH COLFAX NM PUBLIC

ANGEL FIRE SKI AREA.

0800 AM SNOW 7 ESE CHUPADERO 35.79N 105.80W
03/15/2014 E2.0 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

SKI SANTA FE.

0800 AM SNOW RED RIVER 36.71N 105.42W
03/15/2014 E3.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

RED RIVER SKI AREA.

0800 AM SNOW 3 NW TRES RITOS 36.16N 105.55W
03/15/2014 E3.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

SIPAPU SKI AREA.

0800 AM SNOW 8 SSW RED RIVER 36.59N 105.45W
03/15/2014 E1.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

TAOS SKI AREA.

0900 AM SNOW 6 WSW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.80W
03/15/2014 E1.0 INCH LINCOLN NM PUBLIC

SKI APACHE.

0900 AM SNOW 5 WNW LOS ALAMOS 35.91N 106.38W
03/15/2014 E2.0 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

QUEMAZON SNOTEL.

0900 AM SNOW 5 ESE RED RIVER 36.68N 105.33W
03/15/2014 E4.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

RED RIVER PASS SNOTEL.

0900 AM SNOW 8 SSW SAN MIGUEL 36.87N 106.23W
03/15/2014 E1.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

SAN ANTONIO SINK SNOTEL.

0900 AM SNOW 8 NE ARROYO SECO 36.58N 105.45W
03/15/2014 E2.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

TAOS POWDERHORN SNOTEL.

0900 AM SNOW 11 NNW CANON PLAZA 36.70N 106.25W
03/15/2014 E2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

HOPEWELL SNOTEL.

0900 AM SNOW 8 SE EAGLE NEST 36.46N 105.17W
03/15/2014 E6.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

TOLBY SNOTEL.

0900 AM SNOW 9 E CUBA 36.02N 106.80W
03/15/2014 E4.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

VACAS LOCAS SNOTEL.

0900 AM SNOW 9 ENE SHADY BROOK 36.40N 105.32W
03/15/2014 E2.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

PALO SNOTEL.

0900 AM SNOW 4 NNW TRES RITOS 36.18N 105.55W
03/15/2014 E2.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

GALLEGOS PEAK SNOTEL.

0900 AM SNOW 7 ESE CUBA 36.00N 106.83W
03/15/2014 E6.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

SENORITA DIVIDE SNOTEL.

0900 AM SNOW 8 SW ROCIADA 35.76N 105.53W
03/15/2014 E2.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM OTHER FEDERAL

WESNER SPRINGS SNOTEL.

0900 AM SNOW 5 SW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.78W
03/15/2014 E1.0 INCH LINCOLN NM OTHER FEDERAL

SIERRA BLANCA SNOTEL.

0915 AM SNOW 10 SSE ANGEL FIRE 36.25N 105.21W
03/15/2014 M3.0 INCH MORA NM COCORAHS


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400551
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400552
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400553
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400554
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400555
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400556
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400557
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400558
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400559
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400560
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400561
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400562
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400563
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400564
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400565
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400566
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400567
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400568
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400569
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400570
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1400571

$$

JLP

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KMQT [151518]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 151518
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1117 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW IRONWOOD 46.45N 90.15W
03/15/2014 M4.2 INCH GOGEBIC MI PUBLIC

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0900 AM SNOW SKANDIA 46.38N 87.24W
03/15/2014 M5.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0900 AM SNOW 8 N MASS CITY 46.87N 89.10W
03/15/2014 M2.5 INCH ONTONAGON MI COOP OBSERVER

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.39 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT.


0855 AM SNOW 4 SE BIG BAY 46.78N 87.67W
03/15/2014 M3.3 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC

SNOW DURATION 18 HOURS


0830 AM SNOW 2 SSW HARVEY 46.47N 87.37W
03/15/2014 M4.2 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE

0.15 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW DURATION
24 HOURS


0800 AM SNOW 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.53N 87.55W
03/15/2014 M4.2 INCH MARQUETTE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STATION NWS MARQUETTE. SNOW DURATION 18
HOURS. 0.20 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


0800 AM SNOW 2 WNW IRONWOOD 46.47N 90.18W
03/15/2014 M4.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI COOP OBSERVER

DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.30 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT.


0800 AM SNOW MOHAWK 47.31N 88.36W
03/15/2014 M2.2 INCH KEWEENAW MI COOP OBSERVER

DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.15 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT.


0800 AM SNOW 2 NW NATIONAL MINE 46.49N 87.72W
03/15/2014 M2.8 INCH MARQUETTE MI COOP OBSERVER

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.10 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT.


0800 AM SNOW 2 ESE HOUGHTON 47.11N 88.53W
03/15/2014 M2.1 INCH HOUGHTON MI COCORAHS

DURATION 24 HOURS


0800 AM SNOW 7 NNW ISHPEMING 46.59N 87.70W
03/15/2014 M3.9 INCH MARQUETTE MI COOP OBSERVER

DURATION 18 HOURS


0800 AM SNOW 1 NW BIG BAY 46.83N 87.75W
03/15/2014 M3.6 INCH MARQUETTE MI COOP OBSERVER

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.29 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT.


0700 AM SNOW 6 E CHAMPION 46.50N 87.84W
03/15/2014 M2.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION CLARKSBURG /CLKM4/
SNOW DURATION 18 HOURS. 0.06 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT.


0630 AM SNOW MUNISING 46.41N 86.66W
03/15/2014 M2.0 INCH ALGER MI COOP OBSERVER

DURATION 18 HOURS. 0.13 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT.


0628 AM SNOW 4 SE HARVEY 46.45N 87.30W
03/15/2014 M3.5 INCH MARQUETTE MI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION GREEN GARDEN /GGRM4/
SNOW DURATION 18 HOURS. 0.22 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT.


0600 AM SNOW 6 NNW ISHPEMING 46.57N 87.69W
03/15/2014 M4.5 INCH MARQUETTE MI COCORAHS

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.14 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT.



&&

$$

KLUBER

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KMQT [151503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151503
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1102 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW IRONWOOD 46.45N 90.15W
03/15/2014 M4.2 INCH GOGEBIC MI PUBLIC

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [151500]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151500
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1100 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 NW BIG BAY 46.83N 87.75W
03/15/2014 M3.6 INCH MARQUETTE MI COOP OBSERVER

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.29 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


0900 AM SNOW 8 N MASS CITY 46.87N 89.10W
03/15/2014 M2.5 INCH ONTONAGON MI COOP OBSERVER

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.39 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [151431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151431
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1031 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW SKANDIA 46.38N 87.24W
03/15/2014 M5.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [151430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151430
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1029 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 7 NNW ISHPEMING 46.59N 87.70W
03/15/2014 M3.9 INCH MARQUETTE MI COOP OBSERVER

DURATION 18 HOURS


0800 AM SNOW 1 ESE MARQUETTE 46.55N 87.38W
03/15/2014 M3.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI COOP OBSERVER

DURATION 18 HOURS


0800 AM SNOW 2 ESE HOUGHTON 47.11N 88.53W
03/15/2014 M2.1 INCH HOUGHTON MI COCORAHS

DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KTFX [151428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 151428
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
827 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0826 AM SNOW RAYNESFORD 47.27N 110.73W
03/15/2014 E5.0 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT


&&

$$

NJL

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KMQT [151326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151326
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
926 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 2 NW NATIONAL MINE 46.49N 87.72W
03/15/2014 M2.8 INCH MARQUETTE MI COOP OBSERVER

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [151322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151322
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
921 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 AM SNOW 4 SE BIG BAY 46.78N 87.67W
03/15/2014 M3.3 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC

SNOW DURATION 18 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KBIS [151304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151304
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
804 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0803 AM SNOW WATFORD CITY 47.80N 103.28W
03/15/2014 M1.0 INCH MCKENZIE ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT


&&

$$

KROLAK

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KGGW [151256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 151256
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
656 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 AM SNOW 5 SSW OPHEIM 48.79N 106.43W
03/15/2014 E4.0 INCH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF WET AND HEAVY SNOWFALL...SNOW
ENDED.


&&

$$

MATTM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151251
SWODY1
SPC AC 151249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL TX/ARKLATEX TO
LOWER DELTA REGION AND MS COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED THIS PERIOD BY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
BUT PROGRESSIVE RIDGING...MOVING EWD FROM W COAST...AND LARGE
CYCLONIC GYRE COVERING MUCH OF ERN CANADA AND CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. E OF THAT RIDGE--TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY
MID-UPPER INFLUENCES ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DAY-1...
1. SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER ERN NM...FAR W TX AND CHIHUAHUA. THIS TROUGH WILL LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS EMBEDDED 500-MB VORTICITY MAX/WEAK CIRCULATION EJECTS
ENEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX/EXTREME S-CENTRAL OK AROUND 00Z...REACHING
SERN OK/SWRN AR/NE TX BY END OF PERIOD.
2. NRN-STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN
MT...WRN WY AND ERN UT. THIS FEATURE WILL TURN SSEWD ACROSS SRN
ROCKIES AND INTENSIFY CONSIDERABLY BY 12Z...REACHING LOWER-MIDDLE
PECOS VALLEY AND PORTIONS N-CENTRAL MEX.

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BROADEN ACROSS SRN
PLAINS AND NRN MEX...WITH HEIGHT FALLS INTENSIFYING AND SHIFTING
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THESE REGIONS AND NWRN GULF BY END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM
MO BOOTHEEL REGION WSWWD ACROSS ERN/SWRN OK...NW TX...BETWEEN
LBB-MAF...AND OVER SERN NM. WARM FRONTOGENESIS WAS EVIDENT FROM
BETWEEN DYS-CDS EWD ACROSS TXK AREA AND SRN AR. BOTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED TODAY AS RETURN FLOW
OCCURS AHEAD OF SEPARATE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AND PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...GROWING AREAS OF
CLOUDS...PRECIP AND TSTMS OVER TX AND OK RECONFIGURE BOUNDARY-LAYER
BAROCLINICITY CONSIDERABLY ON MESOSCALE.

...SRN PLAINS...MORNING THROUGH EVENING...
MESSY SCENARIO EVIDENT WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING/EARLY-AFTN HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW/N-CENTRAL TX AND MUCH OF OK...OFFERING
MRGL WIND/HAIL RISK. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD FORM THROUGH AFTN OVER
CENTRAL TX AND MOVE/SPREAD ENEWD....THESE HAVING BETTER-ORGANIZED
SVR THREAT. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ALOFT...IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING MID-UPPER TROUGH...BECOMES
INCREASINGLY JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY ABOVE SFC WILL BE
MANIFEST IN PRECONVECTIVE SFC ENVIRONMENT BY NWD SPREAD OF 60S F SFC
DEW POINTS NOW IN CENTRAL/S TX TOWARD RED RIVER...AND 50S THAT HAVE
REACHED SRN OK. THICK MIDDLE-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE STG SFC
DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF
DIFFUSE INSOLATION AND WAA WILL BOOST MLCAPE AND REDUCE MLCINH
THROUGHOUT MIDDAY INTO AFTN IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS. TSTM
COVERAGE SHOULD EXTEND AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL TX THROUGH
AFTN AND INTO EVE...AS INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS MOISTENS.

BUOYANCY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON AVAILABILITY OF LOCALIZED POCKETS
OF ENHANCED/SUSTAINED INSOLATION OVER CENTRAL TX...AND ABSENCE OF
PRECIP/OUTFLOW FARTHER N...NEAR AND N OF I-20. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF AFTN...LIMITING HODOGRAPH
SIZE...WRN RIM OF LLJ WILL ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS AROUND 00Z AND
THEREAFTER FOR ANY SFC-BASED TSTMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD/ENEWD
FROM CENTRAL TO E-CENTRAL/NE TX. THIS CORRIDOR REPRESENTS MOST
PROBABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR FROM LATE AFTN
INTO EVENING. FARTHER S INTO S TX...THOUGH CAPE WILL BE
GREATER...SO WILL CINH...AND FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE-SCALE LIFT BECOME
MORE UNCLEAR.

...SE TX TO MS DELTA/COAST REGIONS...TONIGHT...
ATTM IT STILL IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER TX CONVECTIVE REGIME WILL
1. RUN CONTINUOUSLY INTO LA/MS. SOME SWD BACKBUILDING IS PSBL INTO
SE TX AND SWRN LA...THOUGH DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER WAVE FARTHER N
AND RELATED LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SABINE
RIVER AREA MAY DISFAVOR THAT IDEA.
2. AS MOST CONVECTION-PERMITTING HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST...DEVELOP
AS SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS AND BECOME SFC-BASED CLOSER TO GULF COAST
OVER LA/MS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACCOMPANYING/WEAKLY CAPPED
LOW-LEVEL WAA ZONE THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...SUPERCELL-FAVORING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP SHEAR--E.G. EFFECTIVE SRH EXCEEDING 400 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-60 KT. THOUGH MID-60S DEW POINTS ARE
FCST...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER W...KEEPING
MLCAPE/MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY LIMIT VIGOR OF MANY UPDRAFTS...DESPITE
TECHNICALLY SFC-BASED CHARACTER OF EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS IN FCST
SOUNDINGS.

...NRN OK/EXTREME SRN KS...
SOME MOIST ADVECTION ALSO MAY EXTEND OUT FROM BENEATH CLOUD SHIELD
AND INTO BETTER-HEATED AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS NRN OK/SRN KS...AHEAD
OF HIGH-PLAINS COLD FRONT. THIS COULD FOSTER
CONDITIONAL/SHORT-LIVED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STG-MRGL SVR TSTMS IN
THAT AREA. MID-UPPER SUPPORT WILL DIMINISH WITH NWD
EXTENT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT IS
IN QUESTION GIVEN LACK OF BOUNDARIES OTHER THAN DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING
ZONES AND DECAYING/DIFFUSE FRONT. STILL...STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE
RATES...MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...AND ENOUGH HEATING TO REMOVE CINH
ARE ANTICIPATED...SUGGESTING ISOLATED GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS MAY
OCCUR. MRGL SVR PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NWD
INTO THIS REGION. ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR SVR LEVELS ALSO MAY FORM
ALONG COLD FRONT AFTER DARK AS IT ENCOUNTERS RESIDUAL/MRGLLY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

..EDWARDS/MOSIER.. 03/15/2014

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KMQT [151248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151248
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
848 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 6 NNW ISHPEMING 46.57N 87.69W
03/15/2014 M4.5 INCH MARQUETTE MI COCORAHS

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.14 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [151247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151247
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
846 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 2 WNW IRONWOOD 46.47N 90.18W
03/15/2014 M4.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI COOP OBSERVER

DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.30 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


0800 AM SNOW MOHAWK 47.31N 88.36W
03/15/2014 M2.2 INCH KEWEENAW MI COOP OBSERVER

DURATION 24 HOURS. 0.15 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [151245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151245
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
844 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM SNOW 2 SSW HARVEY 46.47N 87.37W
03/15/2014 M4.2 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE

0.15 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW DURATION
24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [151231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151231
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
830 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.53N 87.55W
03/15/2014 M4.2 INCH MARQUETTE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STATION NWS MARQUETTE. SNOW DURATION 18 HOURS.
0.20 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


0630 AM SNOW MUNISING 46.41N 86.66W
03/15/2014 M2.0 INCH ALGER MI COOP OBSERVER

DURATION 18 HOURS. 0.13 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KBIS [151213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151213
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
712 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 AM SNOW WILLISTON 48.15N 103.63W
03/15/2014 M1.0 INCH WILLIAMS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING.


&&

$$

KROLAK

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KMQT [151133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 151133
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 AM SNOW 4 SE HARVEY 46.45N 87.30W
03/15/2014 M3.5 INCH MARQUETTE MI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION GREEN GARDEN /GGRM4/
SNOW DURATION 18 HOURS. 0.22 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


0700 AM SNOW 6 E CHAMPION 46.50N 87.84W
03/15/2014 M2.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION CLARKSBURG /CLKM4/
SNOW DURATION 18 HOURS. 0.06 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

&&

$$

KLUBER

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150850
SWOD48
SPC AC 150849

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
ON TUESDAY/DAY 4 WITH THE GFS THE FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BY
WEDNESDAY/DAY 5...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY THURSDAY/DAY 6...THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS MOVE THE SYSTEM TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH THE GFS
AGAIN THE FASTER SOLUTION. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSING THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SCNTRL STATES. COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN MAKING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPARSE DURING THE EARLY
TO MID WEEK. BEYOND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.

..BROYLES.. 03/15/2014

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KMQT [150730]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 150730
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
329 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM SNOW IRONWOOD 46.45N 90.15W
03/15/2014 M2.4 INCH GOGEBIC MI PUBLIC

STILL SNOWING PRETTY GOOD. SNOW MOSTLY
OCCURRED SINCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150723
SWODY3
SPC AC 150722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FLORIDA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER AT 12Z MONDAY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF FL BY AFTERNOON. A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG A
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE LINE WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST OF FL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 65 TO 70 F RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH
SFC HEATING...SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
ON THE FL WEST COAST. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR TAMPA BAY AT 21Z
SHOWS MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE. AT
THIS POINT...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE MAIN
QUESTION. THE ECMWF...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE STRONGEST
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT SUGGESTING THE MAIN
DRIVING FACTOR WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT FOR
NOW.

..BROYLES.. 03/15/2014

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KDLH [150605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 150605
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
105 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 AM SNOW 5 NW DULUTH 46.83N 92.19W
03/15/2014 M0.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

KK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150600
SWODY1
SPC AC 150559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH ITS AMPLITUDE LIKELY WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH ITS CREST...ACROSS AND TO THE LEE
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES TODAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MORE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ROCKIES...TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND
REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...APPEARS LIKELY PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE
OZARK PLATEAU BY 12Z SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT A DEEP CYCLONIC VORTEX
PROGRESSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA MAY MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE
INFLUENCE ON WEATHER EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

COLDEST NEAR-SURFACE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX
WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THE SHALLOW SOUTHERN LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
REACH AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY EARLY SUNDAY. COLDER
AIR ALSO APPEAR LIKELY TO SURGE SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A LINGERING LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIOR COLD INTRUSION MAY TIGHTEN SOME ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.

MEANWHILE...A MODEST RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS NOW UNDERWAY OFF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH FURTHER
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...MORE
SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT...WHERE/WHEN MODELS SUGGEST
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU REGION.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
IN ADVANCE OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE...ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TODAY...BEFORE SUBSTANTIVE
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY...A ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...COUPLED
WITH INSOLATION...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR
A 50-60+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR SUPERCELLS. AND THIS MAY BE REALIZED...AS A CYCLONIC
VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE
REGION TOWARD THE 15/21-16/00Z TIME FRAME.

...UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO LWR MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE INLAND MOISTURE SURGE INTO A
DEVELOPING ZONE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...
ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE ON THE PRIMARY FRONT TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...AND AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/LEITMAN.. 03/15/2014

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150550
SWODY2
SPC AC 150548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE LA...SRN
MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...CNTRL TO ERN GULF COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AT
THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OZARKS EWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN A REGION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A LINE BY LATE
MORNING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD
ENABLE THE LINE TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WARM-SECTOR ENVIRONMENT FROM SE LA EWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY WILL BE MOIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT AFFECTED BY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT PENSACOLA FL AT 18Z
TO 19Z SHOW SBCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT.
THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE BETTER-ORGANIZED SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE AROUND MIDDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 40
TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE ECMWF FORECASTS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO
MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE MID MS VALLEY APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT
MAY BECOME MARGINAL BY EARLY EVENING IN THE ERN GULF COAST REGION.

..BROYLES.. 03/15/2014

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KTFX [150433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 150433
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1033 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1021 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SE WINSTON 46.41N 111.58W
03/14/2014 M55 MPH BROADWATER MT MESONET

55 MPH WIND GUST NEAR CANYON FERRY SILOS AREA.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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