KGRR [070357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 070357
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M42.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

0610 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/06/2009 M44.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

0855 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/06/2009 M48.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

0915 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/06/2009 M62.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION AT SOUTH HAVEN.

0915 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M49.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

WIND REPORTED AT THE MUSKEGON GLERL SITE.

0916 PM HAIL 2 SW KENTWOOD 42.88N 85.61W
10/06/2009 M0.25 INCH KENT MI AMATEUR RADIO

SKYWARN REPORTS HAIL AT 52ND AND KALAMAZOO IN KENTWOOD.

0920 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 S NEW ERA 43.52N 86.35W
10/06/2009 OCEANA MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

OCEANA COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A TREE DOWN BETWEEN NEW
ERA AND ROTHBURY.

0920 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LUDINGTON 43.96N 86.45W
10/06/2009 MASON MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

DISPATCH REPORTS WIRES DOWN IN THE CITY.

0930 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M52.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

1005 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M53.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

1010 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/06/2009 M62.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

1030 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SW BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
10/06/2009 M51.00 MPH MASON MI OTHER FEDERAL

1054 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.22W
10/06/2009 M48.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS

WIND GUST AT THE MUSKEGON COUNTY AIRPORT.

1104 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E KENTWOOD 42.88N 85.52W
10/06/2009 M46.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

WIND GUST AT THE GERALD R. FORD AIRPORT

1115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M55.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M58.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E KENTWOOD 42.88N 85.52W
10/06/2009 M47.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

WIND GUST AT GERALD R. FORD AIRPORT

1140 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 E KENTWOOD 42.89N 85.54W
10/06/2009 KENT MI EMERGENCY MNGR

HEALTHY 18 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON CONDO COMPLEX ON
EAST PARIS.

&&

$$

GWETZEL

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KMKX [070355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 070355
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1055 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1054 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S WAUKESHA 42.97N 88.24W
10/06/2009 M55 MPH WAUKESHA WI STORM CHASER

&&

$$

SDAVIS

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KGRR [070354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070354
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1154 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 E KENTWOOD 42.89N 85.54W
10/06/2009 KENT MI EMERGENCY MNGR

HEALTHY 18 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON CONDO COMPLEX ON
EAST PARIS.

&&

$$

GWETZEL

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KGRR [070354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGRR 070354
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1154 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E KENTWOOD 42.88N 85.52W
10/06/2009 M47.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

WIND GUST AT GERALD R. FORD AIRPORT

&&

$$

JK

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KGRR [070348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070348
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1148 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E KENTWOOD 42.88N 85.52W
10/06/2009 M47 MPH KENT MI ASOS

WIND GUST AT GERALND R. FORD AIRPORT

&&

$$

JK

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KGRR [070336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070336
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1136 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M58 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

&&

$$

JK

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KGRR [070329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070329
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1129 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M55 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

&&

$$

JK

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KIWX [070315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 070315
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1112 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW MICHIGAN CITY 41.74N 86.91W
10/06/2009 M62 MPH LMZ046 IN C-MAN STATION

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0900094

$$

SKIPPER

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KGRR [070310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070310
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1104 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E KENTWOOD 42.88N 85.52W
10/06/2009 M46 MPH KENT MI ASOS

WIND GUST AT THE GERALD R. FORD AIRPORT

&&

$$

JK

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KGRR [070306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070306
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1105 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1054 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.22W
10/06/2009 M48 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS

WIND GUST AT THE MUSKEGON COUNTY AIRPORT.

1030 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SW BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
10/06/2009 M51 MPH MASON MI OTHER FEDERAL

&&

$$

GWETZEL

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KGRR [070251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGRR 070251
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1051 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/06/2009 M62.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

&&

$$

JK

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KGRR [070249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070249
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1049 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M53 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

&&

$$

JK

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KGRR [070247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070247
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1047 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M62 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

&&

$$

JK

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KMKX [070225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 070225
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 PM NON-TSTM WND GST KENOSHA 42.58N 87.82W
10/06/2009 M55 MPH KENOSHA WI ASOS

OCCURRED AT 0151Z OR 851 PM CDT

&&

$$

SDAVIS

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KLOT [070221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 070221
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
921 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0912 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PORTAGE 41.59N 87.18W
10/06/2009 E52 MPH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS SUSTAINED AT AN ESTIMATED 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.

&&

$$

CMOTT

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KGRR [070159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070159
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
959 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M52 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

&&

$$

JK

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KGRR [070133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070133
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
933 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 S NEW ERA 43.52N 86.35W
10/06/2009 OCEANA MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

OCEANA COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A TREE DOWN BETWEEN NEW
ERA AND ROTHBURY.

0920 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LUDINGTON 43.96N 86.45W
10/06/2009 MASON MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

DISPATCH REPORTS WIRES DOWN IN THE CITY.

&&

$$

GWETZEL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2076

ACUS11 KWNS 070125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070124
ALZ000-MSZ000-070300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS AND W-CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 070124Z - 070300Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS OVER CENTRAL MS INTO
W-CENTRAL AL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT
THIS TIME.

A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONSISTING OF QUASI-DISCRETE MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG
AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO CENTRAL
MS AND AL. THE 00Z OBSERVED JAN SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWAT
VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES AND A MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 19.5 G/KG...WHICH
IS AIDING IN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO SSELY N OF THE
WARM FRONT...WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO
40 KT THROUGH 6 KM NOTED. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BRIEF SUPERCELLS...WHICH MAY DISPLAY OCCASIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF
LOW LEVEL ROTATION AS THEY EXPERIENCE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF
100 M2 S-2 LOCATED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT EXISTS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AND LARGE MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT...WET MICROBURSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW DUE TO SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO
STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION.

..GARNER.. 10/07/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32488654 31658706 32249086 32859082 33348908 33248743
32488654

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KGRR [070124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070124
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
923 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0916 PM HAIL 2 SW KENTWOOD 42.88N 85.61W
10/06/2009 M0.25 INCH KENT MI AMATEUR RADIO

SKYWARN REPORTS HAIL AT 52ND AND KALAMAZOO IN KENTWOOD.

0915 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/06/2009 M62 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION AT SOUTH HAVEN.

0915 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M49 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

WIND REPORTED AT THE MUSKEGON GLERL SITE.

&&

$$

GWETZEL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2075

ACUS11 KWNS 070122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070121
TXZ000-070315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/S-CENTRAL TX NEAR RIO GRANDE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 070121Z - 070315Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- INCLUDING INTERMITTENT
SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION -- HAVE DEVELOPED FROM TERRELL COUNTY SWD
OVER PORTIONS COAHUILA. CONVECTION IN AND NEAR SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
RANGE IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER MEX...HOWEVER FCST STORM MOTIONS N OF
RIVER INDICATE SOME SVR POTENTIAL OVER AREAS OF DRT.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ACROSS WILLIAMSON...EDWARDS
AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES...MOVING SWD ABOUT 15 KT...AND PREFRONTAL
CONFLUENCE LINE FROM NRN COAHUILA ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
MAVERICK/ZAVALA COUNTIES. CONVECTION OVER TERREL COUNTY RESIDES
ALONG WRN SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT...AND MAY MAINTAIN SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW AS LONG AS DEVIANT/PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF STORM
MOTION CAN KEEP UP WITH FRONTAL PROGRESS. DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY ONCE CONVECTION IS UNDERCUT BY FRONT...BUT
ISOLATED HAIL STILL WILL BE POSSIBLE. INITIAL
INFLOW-LAYER/WARM-SECTOR AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE AROUND
3000 J/KG...DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT AHEAD OF FRONT..AND OF
COURSE DROPPING SHARPLY NWD THROUGH FRONTAL ZONE. WARM-SECTOR SHEAR
PROFILES APPEAR MRGL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100-200 J/KG...N OF CONFLUENCE LINE WHERE
FLOW IS WEAK BUT RELATIVELY BACKED. BRIEF/HEAVY-PRECIP
SUPERCELLULAR EVOLUTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH CONVECTION FARTHER S IN
MEX MOUNTAINS DURING PAST 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE IT CONGEALED INTO
LINEAR/MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER. THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER
MEX...GIVEN CONSIDERABLY STRONGER MLCINH EVIDENT AWAY FROM HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON BOTH SIDES OF RIO GRANDE. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ONE OR TWO LEFT-MOVING TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER MEX AND CROSS
RIVER...HOWEVER ANY SUCH ACTIVITY ALSO SHOULD BE UNDERCUT BY COLD
FRONT RATHER QUICKLY.

..EDWARDS.. 10/07/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29850228 30090196 30320129 30230082 29840015 29090025
28720052 29120064 29130077 29270082 29490110 29520126
29650120 29580131 29780143 29750166 29800180 29790205
29850228

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KBIS [070108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 070108
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
808 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 20 S ELGIN 46.11N 101.85W
10/06/2009 M5.0 INCH GRANT ND CO-OP OBSERVER

LATE REPORT.

&&

$$

VROLLER

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KGRR [070107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 070107
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
907 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/06/2009 M48 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

&&

$$

JK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070053
SWODY1
SPC AC 070050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
AHEAD OF A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SOME SURFACE/NEAR
SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITHIN A RATHER
MOIST PREFRONTAL AIRMASS /70-75F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LA AND MS/AL...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT WESTERN GA/SOUTHEAST
TN. WHILE THE 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM SHREVEPORT/JACKSON MS WERE
INDICATIVE OF 3000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE...WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...CONVECTIVE VIGOR SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN MEAGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/WARM MID
LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. NONETHELESS...RESIDUALLY STRONG /BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING/ DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE SUGGESTIVE
A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
TONIGHT.

...TX TO ARKLATEX...
SURFACE REFLECTION OF SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. SOME BRIEF TEMPORAL/SPATIAL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE BASED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS REMAINS
ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND VICINITY...BUT OTHERWISE ELEVATED STORMS
WITHIN THE POST-SURFACE FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SCENARIO. IN ADDITION TO ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS NORTH TX/SOUTHEAST OK
TO THE ARKLATEX...ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST TX/SOUTHEAST NM AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES
UPON THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN SPITE OF MODERATE ELEVATED
CAPE AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM FORT WORTH /1400 J PER
KG MUCAPE/...RESIDUALLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE HAIL RISK RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL
IN NATURE.

..GUYER.. 10/07/2009

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KSJT [070040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 070040
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
739 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 PM HAIL CLYDE 32.40N 99.50W
10/06/2009 E0.88 INCH CALLAHAN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED.

&&

$$

MC

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KSJT [070011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 070011
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
711 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 PM HAIL 6 S ABILENE 32.36N 99.73W
10/06/2009 E1.00 INCH TAYLOR TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

MC

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KGRR [062335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 062335
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
734 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/06/2009 M42.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

0610 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/06/2009 M44.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

&&

$$

JK

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 757

WWUS20 KWNS 062155
SEL7
SPC WW 062155
TXZ000-062300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 757 ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS

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KGRR [062155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 062155
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
555 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL HORTON 42.15N 84.52W
10/06/2009 M0.50 INCH JACKSON MI BROADCAST MEDIA

WILX TV REPORTED VIA THE PUBLIC ONE HALF INCH HAIL.

0340 PM HAIL 4 SE HORTON 42.11N 84.46W
10/06/2009 M0.50 INCH JACKSON MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS OBSERVER SENT A SPECIAL REPORT WITH HAIL JUST
BELOW ONE HALF INCH.

&&

$$

GWETZEL

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KSHV [061943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KSHV 061943
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
242 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM TORNADO 6 WSW LUCKY 32.21N 93.11W
10/01/2009 BIENVILLE LA NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON LAND PRIMARILY USED FOR TIMBER
HARVESTING...TORNADO PATH LENGTH WAS ROUGHLY 5 MILES WITH
A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 250 YARDS AT ITS WIDEST POINT.
NUMEROUS TREES WERE UPROOTED...WHILE MANY OTHERS HAD
THEIR TOPS TWISTED OFF. THE TORNADO IS RATED AN EF0.

&&

$$

MBERRY

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KSHV [061935]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 061935
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
235 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM TORNADO 6 WSW LUCKY 32.21N 93.11W
10/02/2009 BIENVILLE LA NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON LAND PRIMARILY USED FOR TIMBER
HARVESTING...TORNADO PATH LENGTH WAS ROUGHLY 5 MILES WITH
A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 250 YARDS AT ITS WIDEST POINT.
NUMEROUS TREES WERE UPROOTED...WHILE MANY OTHERS HAD
THEIR TOPS TWISTED OFF. THE TORNADO IS RATED AN EF0.

&&

$$

DUPLANTIS

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KBIS [061933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 061933
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW REGENT 46.42N 102.56W
10/06/2009 M4.0 INCH HETTINGER ND PUBLIC

LATE REPORT.

&&

$$

JP MARTIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061928
SWODY1
SPC AC 061925

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL TX INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY...

...20Z UPDATE...

...NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES/UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY...
AN AREA OF MID/UPPER FORCING...DOWNSTREAM OF THE VIGOROUS CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH ACCELERATING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...APPEARS TO HAVE
PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR SUSTAINED PROMINENT ONGOING STORM CLUSTER NOW
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER
...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THIS FORCING WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROBABLY
WILL FOLLOW SUIT. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES EASTWARD...SUPPORTING
MOIST LAYER APPEARS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED/LESS UNSTABLE
...LIKELY RESULTING IN NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH...THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH ONE OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM WAVES...ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...COULD SUPPORT RENEWED UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...IT PROBABLY
WILL BE ROOTED IN A MOIST LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AS
PRE-FRONTAL RETURN FLOW CONTINUES...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL.

...TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED NEAR SURFACE FRONT.
WHILE STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO A ZONE OF LIFT NORTH OF
THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY
STILL EXIST FOR FRONTAL FORCING TO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT STILL SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO UNDERCUT STRONGER CONVECTION...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY
BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

..KERR.. 10/06/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009/

...TX INTO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL WAA MAINTAINING BROKEN BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS
FROM NWRN TX INTO THE MID SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY AS MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DIMINISH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT
WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SWD INTO CENTRAL TX AND INTO NRN LA/NRN MS.
WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES
AND SFC DEW POINTS APPROACHING 80F. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING
WILL PROVE PROBLEMATIC FOR WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW LEVEL
LIFTING SUPPORTING MORE ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT ATOP SHALLOW SURFACE
COLD LAYER ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FROM 45-55 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED
CELLS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WARM AT 500 MB...AROUND MINUS 5 OR 6 C....FROM TX INTO AR AND THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHICH MAY LIMIT HAIL GROWTH. HOWEVER
...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BOOST
MUCAPE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN S CNTRL TX ENE INTO THE ARKLATEX
AND...ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

LATER TONIGHT INTO SWRN TX...LOW LEVEL WAA WILL AGAIN INCREASE ALONG
STRENGTHENING SLY H85 FLOW. ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF SERN NM/WRN TX WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUSTAIN A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

...MID SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST...
DESPITE AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SEEMS UNLIKELY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT GIVEN PREFRONTAL RAIN/CLOUDS AND STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. COMBINATION OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP RELATIVELY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK...PRIMARILY
IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND A NON-ZERO TORNADO
THREAT. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL OVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY.

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KFWD [061908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 061908
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
208 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM FLASH FLOOD TRENTON 33.43N 96.35W
10/06/2009 FANNIN TX AMATEUR RADIO

WATER IN THREE HOMES AND CITY HALL

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2074

ACUS11 KWNS 061851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061850
TXZ000-061945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 757...

VALID 061850Z - 061945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 757
CONTINUES.

WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR
INITIATION/MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SEWD THROUGH WW...EXTENDING
FROM SCHLEICHER COUNTY SOUTH OF SJT...NEWD TO DALLAS COUNTY BEFORE
EXTENDING INTO SERN OK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED IN NATURE THUS HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 10/06/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 31720098 32719887 33559653 33639459 32939459 32309628
31159888 30920097 31720098

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KSJT [061835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 061835
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
135 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM HAIL 2 ENE DUDLEY 32.27N 99.57W
10/06/2009 E0.75 INCH CALLAHAN TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

LHIESLER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061730
SWODY2
SPC AC 061728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN AN EVOLVING SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN...A BROAD CLOSED LOW
APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF A SHARP
NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE DIGGING AROUND THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE INLAND
ACCELERATION OF A CLOSED LOW NOW FORMING NEAR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. WHILE THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL
MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EASTERN STATES...NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA/BAHAMAS REGION...IN THE WAKE OF A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND CYCLONE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST.

DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD PROBABLY WILL BE LIMITED WEDNESDAY AS
LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH RAPID COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY MID DAY. A QUICKLY DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW OFF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
VERY MOIST...MAY...HOWEVER...RESULT IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY... THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS NEAR A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.
WHILE THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN RETREATING OR
REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...MUCH OF THE LATER
PERIOD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BASED IN THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. DESPITE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG CONVECTIVE LAYER SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...A RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR
MASS...COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE COOL STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE ANY SEVERE THREAT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY LOCALIZED AREA NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE STALLING FRONT AND DRY LINE OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. FORCING TO WEAKEN ANTICIPATED STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
ACROSS THIS REGION IS STILL UNCLEAR...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORT
STOCKTON AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...INCREASING ASCENT
WITH THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
STRONGER CAPPING OF ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT ALLOW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUT...IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM
PRIOR TO 08/12Z ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR A BIT
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL THAN THOSE ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI.

..KERR.. 10/06/2009

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 757

WWUS20 KWNS 061655
SEL7
SPC WW 061655
TXZ000-062300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
PARIS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 756...

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT /INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR
TWO/ WILL CONTINUE WITHIN FEED OF MODERATE MUCAPE BEHIND SHALLOW
SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SSEWD INTO CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
STRONG/SEVERE WIND REPORT REMAINS WITH THE STRONGER CORES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25020.

...EVANS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 756

WWUS20 KWNS 061655
SEL6
SPC WW 061655
OKZ000-TXZ000-061700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 756 ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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KMSO [061648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KMSO 061648
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1047 AM MDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG FINLEY POINT 47.74N 114.06W
10/03/2009 LAKE MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN AT ROCKY POINT. FLATHEAD LAKE DOCKS - 1 BOAT
WRECKED AT FINELY POINT AND ONE AT ROCKY POINT.

&&

$$

LOEFFELBEIN

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KFWD [061647]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 061647
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1144 AM HAIL BRYSON 33.17N 98.38W
10/06/2009 E1.75 INCH JACK TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BRYSON

$$

42/MM

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KFWD [061641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 061641
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1134 AM HAIL TIOGA 33.47N 96.92W
10/06/2009 EE1.75 INCH GRAYSON TX AMATEUR RADIO

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY TIOGA SCHOOL DISTRICT

$$

42/MM

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KFWD [061637]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 061637
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1134 AM HAIL TIOGA 33.47N 96.92W
10/06/2009 E1.75 INCH GRAYSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN TIOGA

$$

42/MM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061629
SWODY1
SPC AC 061625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY...

...TX INTO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL WAA MAINTAINING BROKEN BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS
FROM NWRN TX INTO THE MID SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY AS MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DIMINISH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT
WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SWD INTO CENTRAL TX AND INTO NRN LA/NRN MS.
WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES
AND SFC DEW POINTS APPROACHING 80F. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING
WILL PROVE PROBLEMATIC FOR WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW LEVEL
LIFTING SUPPORTING MORE ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT ATOP SHALLOW SURFACE
COLD LAYER ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FROM 45-55 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED
CELLS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WARM AT 500 MB...AROUND MINUS 5 OR 6 C....FROM TX INTO AR AND THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHICH MAY LIMIT HAIL GROWTH. HOWEVER
...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BOOST
MUCAPE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN S CNTRL TX ENE INTO THE ARKLATEX
AND...ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

LATER TONIGHT INTO SWRN TX...LOW LEVEL WAA WILL AGAIN INCREASE ALONG
STRENGTHENING SLY H85 FLOW. ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF SERN NM/WRN TX WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUSTAIN A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

...MID SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY/MIDWEST...
DESPITE AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SEEMS UNLIKELY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT GIVEN PREFRONTAL RAIN/CLOUDS AND STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. COMBINATION OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP RELATIVELY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK...PRIMARILY
IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND A NON-ZERO TORNADO
THREAT. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL OVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY.

..EVANS/GRAMS.. 10/06/2009

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KTFX [061538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061538
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
937 AM MDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 SSW STANFORD 47.08N 110.28W
10/05/2009 M9.0 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER TFX0900009

$$

HOENISCH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2073

ACUS11 KWNS 061503
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061503
TXZ000-061600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL-NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756...

VALID 061503Z - 061600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT IS WANING ACROSS SERN OK AND WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
CANCELED.

SFC FRONT IS SURGING SWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND NCNTRL TX AT
ROUGHLY 25KT. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT AND PROVIDE
FRONTAL ASCENT FOR ELEVATED ACTIVITY THAT IS DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING
FROM JUST NW OF ABI...NEWD TO NEAR DENTON. 12Z SOUNDING FROM FWD IS
STRONGLY CAPPED AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INADEQUATE FOR
SFC-BASED ACTIVITY BENEATH THICK CLOUD CANOPY NEAR THE METROPLEX.
HOWEVER...AIR MASS FARTHER WEST IS LESS CAPPED AND MINIMAL FRONTAL
ASCENT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG/POST-FRONTAL AS WIND SHIFT
PUSHES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX. ISOLATED HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT
TOO MARGINAL ATTM FOR A NEW WATCH ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE.

..DARROW.. 10/06/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32500061 33489848 33369695 32639789 31920008 32500061

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KSHV [061455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 061455
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
955 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL 4 E WATSON 34.43N 94.48W
10/05/2009 E0.75 INCH MCCURTAIN OK PUBLIC

HAIL FELL ALONG HWY 4 EAST OF WATSON, OKLAHOMA.

&&

$$

MBERRY

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KBIS [061355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 061355
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW HETTINGER 46.00N 102.64W
10/06/2009 M3.0 INCH ADAMS ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT.

&&

$$

LLP

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KBIS [061355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 061355
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
854 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW CARSON 46.42N 101.57W
10/06/2009 M1.1 INCH GRANT ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT.

&&

$$

LLP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061309
SWODY1
SPC AC 061308

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0808 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL TX ENE INTO THE
LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S.
THROUGH WED AS POSITIVE TILT UPR LOW SLOWLY REDEVELOPS SEWD ACROSS
CA...AND NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS CONTINUES E
TO THE LWR GRT LKS.

SFC LOW NOW OVER IA SHOULD CONTINUE E/ENE INTO SRN ONTARIO BY 12Z
WED...WITH SOME DEEPENING LIKELY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE SE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY...OH...AND TN VLYS...AND
CONTINUE STEADILY SSE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.

...SRN PLNS INTO LWR MS/TN VLYS...
BAND OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING FROM NW TX ENE INTO SE OK AND WRN AR AS MOIST/CONFLUENT SW
TO WSWLY LLJ FURTHER VEERS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF
NRN STREAM TROUGH. QUALITY OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLOW /PW AOA
1.50 INCHES/ AND STRENGTH OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
/50+ KTS/ SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE SUSTAINED STORMS AND
PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS LLJ WEAKENS LATER THIS MORNING AND COLD FRONT NOW
ENTERING N CNTRL TX UNDERCUTS EXISTING BAND OF STORMS.

IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTN AND EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY COLD FRONT AS
HEATING AND PERSISTENT WSWLY LOW LVL SCOUR REMAINING PORTION OF
SHALLOW COOL AIR DOME NOW PRESENT NEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM AT 500 MB...AROUND MINUS 5
OR 6 C....FROM TX INTO AR AND WRN TN/NRN MS. IN ADDITION... FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SPREADS FROM NM
INTO TX IN WAKE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH. BUT A BELT OF 50+ KT DEEP
WSWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST ON SRN FRINGE OF TROUGH. WITH SFC
HEATING AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF RICH MOISTURE LIKELY TO BOOST
SBCAPE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN S CNTRL TX ENE INTO THE ARKLATEX...ANY
STORM FORMING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED TO POSE A THREAT OF DMGG WIND FROM ASSOCIATED
SMALL SCALE BOWS. VEERED LOW LVL FLOW WILL LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.
A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT WILL...HOWEVER ...EXIST FROM NRN LA AND
CNTRL/SRN AR INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF TN AND MS WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS THAT INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENTS ON SW FRINGE OF ERODING COOL DOME.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVE AS HEIGHT RISES SPREAD E
FROM THE SRN PLNS TO THE LWR MS VLY...AND COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT STORMS.

...MID MS VLY/MIDWEST...
DESPITE AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH... APPRECIABLE
LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION SEEMS UNLIKELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT GIVEN
PREFRONTAL RAIN/CLOUDS. BUT COMBINATION OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STG WIND FIELD COULD SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO OF STORMS
WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND/OR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WINDS UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET.

...SW TX...
TSTMS MAY INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SW TX AND PERHAPS FAR SE NM AS LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS NWWD ON WRN SIDE OF SHORTWAVE RDG. ABSENCE OF
UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR THREAT...BUT
AMPLE SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS
WITH SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/06/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061308
SWODY1
SPC AC 061306

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL TX ENE INTO THE
LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S.
THROUGH WED AS POSITIVE TILT UPR LOW SLOWLY REDEVELOPS SEWD ACROSS
CA...AND NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS CONTINUES E
TO THE LWR GRT LKS.

SFC LOW NOW OVER IA SHOULD CONTINUE E/ENE INTO SRN ONTARIO BY 12Z
WED...WITH SOME DEEPENING LIKELY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE SE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY...OH...AND TN VLYS...AND
CONTINUE STEADILY SSE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.

...SRN PLNS INTO LWR MS/TN VLYS...
BAND OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING FROM NW TX ENE INTO SE OK AND WRN AR AS MOIST/CONFLUENT SW
TO WSWLY LLJ FURTHER VEERS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF
NRN STREAM TROUGH. QUALITY OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLOW /PW AOA
1.50 INCHES/ AND STRENGTH OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
/50+ KTS/ SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE SUSTAINED STORMS AND
PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS LLJ WEAKENS LATER THIS MORNING AND COLD FRONT NOW
ENTERING N CNTRL TX UNDERCUTS EXISTING BAND OF STORMS.

IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTN AND EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY COLD FRONT AS
HEATING AND PERSISTENT WSWLY LOW LVL SCOUR REMAINING PORTION OF
SHALLOW COOL AIR DOME NOW PRESENT NEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM AT 500 MB...AROUND MINUS 5
OR 6 C....FROM TX INTO AR AND WRN TN/NRN MS. IN ADDITION... FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SPREADS FROM NM
INTO TX IN WAKE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH. BUT A BELT OF 50+ KT DEEP
WSWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST ON SRN FRINGE OF TROUGH. WITH SFC
HEATING AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF RICH MOISTURE LIKELY TO BOOST
SBCAPE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN S CNTRL TX ENE INTO THE ARKLATEX...ANY
STORM FORMING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED TO POSE A THREAT OF DMGG WIND FROM ASSOCIATED
SMALL SCALE BOWS. VEERED LOW LVL FLOW WILL LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.
A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT WILL...HOWEVER ...EXIST FROM NRN LA AND
CNTRL/SRN AR INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF TN AND MS WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS THAT INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENTS ON SW FRINGE OF ERODING COOL DOME.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVE AS HEIGHT RISES SPREAD E
FROM THE SRN PLNS TO THE LWR MS VLY...AND COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT STORMS.

...MID MS VLY/MIDWEST...
DESPITE AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH... APPRECIABLE
LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION SEEMS UNLIKELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT GIVEN
PREFRONTAL RAIN/CLOUDS. BUT COMBINATION OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STG WIND FIELD COULD SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO OF STORMS
WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND/OR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WINDS UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET.

...SW TX...
TSTMS MAY INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SW TX AND PERHAPS FAR SE NM AS LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS NWWD ON WRN SIDE OF SHORTWAVE RDG. ABSENCE OF
UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR THREAT...BUT
AMPLE SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS
WITH SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/06/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061259
SWODY1
SPC AC 061256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL TX ENE INTO THE
LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S.
THROUGH WED AS POSITIVE TILT UPR LOW SLOWLY REDEVELOPS SEWD ACROSS
CA...AND NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS CONTINUES E
TO THE LWR GRT LKS.

SFC LOW NOW OVER IA SHOULD CONTINUE E/ENE INTO SRN ONTARIO BY 12Z
WED...WITH SOME DEEPENING LIKELY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE SE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY...OH...AND TN VLYS...AND
CONTINUE STEADILY SSE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.

...SRN PLNS INTO LWR MS/TN VLYS...
BAND OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING FROM NW TX ENE INTO SE OK AND WRN AR AS MOIST/CONFLUENT SW
TO WSWLY LLJ FURTHER VEERS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF
NRN STREAM TROUGH. QUALITY OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLOW /PW AOA
1.50 INCHES/ AND STRENGTH OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
/50+ KTS/ SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE SUSTAINED STORMS AND
PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS LLJ WEAKENS LATER THIS MORNING AND COLD FRONT NOW
ENTERING N CNTRL TX UNDERCUTS EXISTING BAND OF STORMS.

IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTN AND EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY COLD FRONT AS
HEATING AND PERSISTENT WSWLY LOW LVL SCOUR REMAINING PORTION OF
SHALLOW COOL AIR DOME NOW PRESENT NEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM AT 500 MB...AROUND MINUS 5
OR 6 C....FROM TX INTO AR AND WRN TN/NRN MS. IN ADDITION... FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SPREADS FROM NM
INTO TX IN WAKE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH. BUT A BELT OF 50+ KT DEEP
WSWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST ON SRN FRINGE OF TROUGH. WITH SFC
HEATING AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF RICH MOISTURE LIKELY TO BOOST
SBCAPE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN S CNTRL TX ENE INTO THE ARKLATEX...ANY
STORM FORMING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED TO POSE A THREAT OF DMGG WIND FROM ASSOCIATED
SMALL SCALE BOWS. VEERED LOW LVL FLOW WILL LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.
A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT WILL...HOWEVER ...EXIST FROM NRN LA AND
CNTRL/SRN AR INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF TN AND MS WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS THAT INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENTS ON SW FRINGE OF ERODING COOL DOME.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVE AS HEIGHT RISES SPREAD E
FROM THE SRN PLNS TO THE LWR MS VLY...AND COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT STORMS.

...MID MS VLY/MIDWEST...
DESPITE AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH... APPRECIABLE
LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION SEEMS UNLIKELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT GIVEN
PREFRONTAL RAIN/CLOUDS. BUT COMBINATION OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STG WIND FIELD COULD SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO OF STORMS
WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND/OR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WINDS UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET.

...SW TX...
TSTMS MAY INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SW TX AND PERHAPS FAR SE NM AS LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS NWWD ON WRN SIDE OF SHORTWAVE RDG. ABSENCE OF
UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR THREAT...BUT
AMPLE SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS
WITH SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/06/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2072

ACUS11 KWNS 061247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061247
OKZ000-TXZ000-061415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756...

VALID 061247Z - 061415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756
CONTINUES.

MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z FROM NWRN TX THROUGH SRN OK AND WRN AR. PRIMARY
THREAT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY RAIN.

ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP
LAYER CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 50+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET
AND SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE OBSERVED 12 RAOB DATA INDICATE
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TENDENCY
HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO LINEAR STRUCTURES...BUT
GIVEN 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT A RELATIVELY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY LIMIT OVERALL WIND THREAT. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
STORMS TRAIN FROM SW-NE ACROSS SRN AND SERN OK NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

..DIAL.. 10/06/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34249474 33489733 33589917 34669683 35289447 34249474

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KOUN [061138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 061138
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 AM LIGHTNING DUNCAN 34.52N 97.97W
10/06/2009 STEPHENS OK AMATEUR RADIO

DAMAGE TO TWO HOUSES AFTER LIGHTNING STRIKES STARTED
FIRES TO BOTH HOMES.

&&

$$

RILEY

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KSGF [061024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061024
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
524 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 AM HAIL MONETT 36.92N 93.93W
10/06/2009 E0.25 INCH BARRY MO PUBLIC

0522 AM HAIL BOLIVAR 37.61N 93.41W
10/06/2009 E0.25 INCH POLK MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

GAGAN

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KLSX [061021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 061021
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
521 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 AM HAIL ROCHEPORT 38.98N 92.56W
10/06/2009 E0.70 INCH BOONE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900126

$$

BYRD

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 756

WWUS20 KWNS 060943
SEL6
SPC WW 060943
OKZ000-TXZ000-061700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 440 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS FORMING IN AREA OF SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE RED RIVER EXPECTED TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS REGION IS GLANCED BY
UPR DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE CNTRL
PLNS/MID MO VLY. TEMPORAL VEERING OF CONFLUENT SWLY LLJ ALSO
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE ACTIVITY TOWARD THE WSW ATOP
DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL COOL DOME. QUALITY OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
MOISTURE INFLOW WITH EWD EXTENT /PW AOA 1,50 INCHES/...AND 50-60 KT
UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR...FURTHER SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.

...CORFIDI

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KOUN [060943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 060943
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
442 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 AM HAIL 1 S RANDLETT 34.16N 98.46W
10/06/2009 E1.00 INCH COTTON OK AMATEUR RADIO

CONTINUED FOR 7 MINUTES AFTER THIS TIME.

0435 AM HAIL 6 N DUNCAN 34.61N 97.97W
10/06/2009 E0.75 INCH STEPHENS OK AMATEUR RADIO

ALSO 45 MPH WIND.

&&

$$

CMS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060840
SWOD48
SPC AC 060839

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT
INTO DAY 6 /SUN OCT 11/...AS A LARGE TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. DAY 4 /FRI OCT 9/...AND THEN OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 5 /SAT OCT 10/. SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION DAY 4 AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION -- PARTICULARLY WITH NWD EXTENT --
WILL LIKELY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION/SEVERE
THREAT. THUS -- INCLUSION OF A SEVERE THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST IS
NOT WARRANTED.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO DAY 5...HIGHER
THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR -- OR JUST OFF --
THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS FL. WITH THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURE EVIDENT WHICH COULD ALLOW A RETURN OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER NWD...LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

..GOSS.. 10/06/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2071

ACUS11 KWNS 060815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060815
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-061015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN...CNTRL AND NERN OK...SERN KS AND
SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 060815Z - 061015Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM NWRN TX THROUGH OK
AND SERN KS/SWRN MO THIS MORNING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

EARLY THIS MORNING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS DEVELOPING OVER
NWRN TX AND SWRN OK. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM WRN MO THROUGH SERN KS. ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH
A 50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH NW OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
STORMS ARE ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
RESERVOIR OF 2000-2500 J/KG MUCAPE HAS DEVELOPED WHERE 7 C/KM MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AXIS.

RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER...SO STORMS OVER NWRN TX AND SWRN OK ARE PROBABLY NOT
CURRENTLY INGESTING THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR LOCATED AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS FARTHER NE ACROSS SERN KS AND WRN MO ARE
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS COULD BECOME
ROOTED FARTHER DOWN LATER THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS THE DEEPER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER SE. IF THIS OCCURS
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITIES WOULD LIKELY INCREASE WITH A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION.

..DIAL.. 10/06/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 34650006 36189742 38419439 37709362 35149613 33719919
34650006

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060726
SWODY3
SPC AC 060724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BY DAY 3 IN OPERATIONAL
RUNS...SPECIFICALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE SRN STREAM TROUGH EXITING
THE SWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT...MAJOR DIFFERENCES ALSO EMERGE IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE SRN PLAINS -- WHERE THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED THIS PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS...
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR WILL EXPAND
ACROSS TX...WITH WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT CONVECTION FROM PARTS OF OK
NWD LIKELY TO HINDER ANY APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION/SEVERE
POTENTIAL N OF THE RED RIVER.

WHILE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX...STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM W
CENTRAL AND SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON INVOF A FRONT/TROUGH TRAILING SSWWD FROM A WEAK LOW INVOF
WRN OK. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THIS
AREA AND THE ANTICIPATION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO
MODERATE/SWLY AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL. WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
FORECASTS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE AREA NONETHELESS WITH THE INITIAL
INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY.

..GOSS.. 10/06/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060601
SWODY1
SPC AC 060600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO THE
MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT LONGWAVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...AS AN UPPER TROUGH/ATTENDANT STRONG JET TRANSITIONS EASTWARD
OVER THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER CA. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL
STATES UPPER TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
DEEPEN/TRANSITION NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AS AN EASTWARD ACCELERATING COLD FRONT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS/OH VALLEY/MID-SOUTH. THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX/TX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...TX/ARKLATEX TO LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT OF INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...WITH 130-150 KT AND 60-100 KT AT 250 MB/500 MB
RESPECTIVELY...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MIDWEST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE MID-SOUTH ATTENDANT TO THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. OWING TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE COMMON AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO THE
OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO
SEVERE LEVELS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT A POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE RISK SHOULD EVOLVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY AND ARKLATEX/CENTRAL TX.

WITH A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...THE
DETAILS OF THE EVENTUAL NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF THE TRUE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE ACCELERATING COLD FRONT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
NONETHELESS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST /PERHAPS NEARING 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
AND DIURNALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO PORTIONS
OF MS/WESTERN TN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT FAST MOVING STORMS/POSSIBLE
SMALL BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. RELATIVELY
STRONG 1-2 KM FLOW AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH /150-300 M2 PER S2/ WILL
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY QUASI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM
THE ARKLATEX INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
LIMITED FORCING ON THE LARGE SCALE...GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHT
FALLS/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF
THE FRONT SUGGEST THE SEVERE RISK MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
LONG-LIVED/WELL-ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BOUTS OF
WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE NONETHELESS.

...MIDWEST...
IN SPITE OF AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...AN APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOIST
INFLUX/SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION SEEMS UNLIKELY INTO THE MIDWEST
/INCLUDING MUCH OF IL AND INDIANA/ AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY/STRONG WIND FIELDS COULD
SUPPORT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
WIND GUSTS MAINLY UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

...SOUTHWEST TX...
TSTMS MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX AS
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL LATER TONIGHT.

..GUYER/GARNER.. 10/06/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060559
SWODY2
SPC AC 060556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH SWEEPS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...A SECOND POTENT LOW/TROUGH OFF THE SRN CA
COAST EARLY WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS EWD. AS IT DOES...THIS FEATURE
IS PROGGED TO PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE FEATURE DIGGING
SSEWD INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE WRN/CENTRAL
CANADA VORTEX. THE RESULT WILL BE A LARGE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WRN CANADA AND THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT LINGERS ACROSS SRN AND WRN TX/NRN
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. AND SEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.

...PARTS OF W TX AND SERN NM...
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MUCH
OF TX...WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR AND N OF THE
LINGERING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SRN TX/NRN MEXICO.

THIS FRONT MAY RETREAT SLOWLY ACROSS FAR W TX AND ADJACENT SRN NM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHICH --
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING -- SHOULD RESULT IN MODEST
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THIS AREA.
FARTHER N...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED...SPREADING NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND PARTS OF KS LATE.

DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND S
OF THE RETREATING FRONT...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
THIS REGION UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
SLOWLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING MAY HINDER APPRECIABLE WARM
SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ANY ISOLATED STORM WHICH
COULD FORM WOULD RESIDE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE
SHEAR/VEERING WITH HEIGHT -- AND THUS WOULD LIKELY EXHIBIT SOME
ORGANIZATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE/SPREAD NWD OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND THUS YIELDS INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WHILE SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR AS FAR N AS
OK/KS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED N/NE OF SERN NM/THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS REGION.

..GOSS.. 10/06/2009

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