DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160044
SWODY1
SPC AC 160041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..MID SOUTH SWWD TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST...

PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG DEEPER
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE /PER REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS/ FROM THE
MS DELTA SWWD TO N OF VCT. 00Z SOUNDING DATA SHOW THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ CONFINED TO THE TX COAST
WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN STABILITY NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH OWING
TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN/CNTRL LA
INTO NRN MS/WRN TN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX OVERSPREADS REGION.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS...THOUGH THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM
INTENSITY AND ANY SEVERE THREAT.

.MEAD.. 10/16/2007

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KMFR [160022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 160022
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
522 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N HAPPY CAMP 41.80N 123.38W
10/15/2007 M0.25 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 9 AM UNTIL 4 PM.

&&

$$

PETRUCEL

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KMFR [160022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 160022
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
522 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

&&

$$

PETRUCEL

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KOAX [152359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KOAX 152359
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
659 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM FLOOD 1 E AUBURN 40.39N 95.82W
10/15/2007 NEMAHA NE EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHWAY 136 EAST OF AUBURN DOWN TO ONE LANE. WATER
FLOWING ONTO ROAD.

&&

$$

CHERMOK

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KHGX [152208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 152208
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
508 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM TSTM WND DMG HUMBLE 29.99N 95.26W
10/15/2007 HARRIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

POWER LINES DOWN

0350 PM TSTM WND DMG DAYTON 30.05N 94.90W
10/15/2007 LIBERTY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

$$

LW

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KICT [152151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152151
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
451 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W HESSTON 38.14N 97.45W
10/14/2007 HARVEY KS NEWSPAPER

SOME POWER POLES WERE DOWNED. REPORT COURTESY OF THE
HESSTON NEWSPAPER.

&&

$$

ADK

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KICT [152145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152145
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
445 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W HESSTON 38.14N 97.45W
10/14/2007 HARVEY KS NEWSPAPER

A 100 YEAR OLD BARN WAS DESTROYED. REPORT COURTESY OF THE
HESSTON NEWSPAPER.

&&

$$

ADK

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KFWD [151945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 151945
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
245 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW DALLAS 32.85N 96.83W
10/15/2007 DALLAS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOF DAMAGE TO A WAREHOUSE ON THE 8700 BLOCK OF
DIPLOMACY ROW..TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151941
SWODY1
SPC AC 151939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX...

..SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX...

LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL GRADUALLY WANE ACROSS SERN TX AS UPPER
SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER THIS
EVENING. ASSOCIATED BROAD ZONE OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS SERN TX IN
PROXIMITY TO MUCH HIGHER INSTABILITY WITHIN A ZONE OF NEGLIGIBLE
INHIBITION. ADDITIONALLY...WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW IS SURGING SWD
ACROSS THIS REGION ARCING FROM SABINE COUNTY...MONTGOMERY
COUNTY...WWD INTO WILLIAMSON COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY
FROM THE HOUSTON METRO AREA EWD. ANOTHER POTENTIAL REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY SWWD
TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. SUBSTANTIALLY MORE HEATING WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THIS WEAKLY CONVERGENT WIND SHIFT BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THIS
REGION TO WARRANT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL OR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.

..ERN NEB/IA...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE YET TO BREAK UP BENEATH UPPER LOW LIFTING
NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HINDERED SFC
HEATING AND REDUCED AN ALREADY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT.
ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION IT
APPEARS THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL IS QUITE LOW.

.DARROW.. 10/15/2007

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KFWD [151916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 151916
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
216 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0718 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE RICHLAND HILLS 32.79N 97.20W
10/15/2007 TARRANT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

RICHLAND HILLS PD REPORTED 10 TO 12 FOOT SECTION OF A
ROOF BLOWN OFF INTO A STREET AND DAMAGED A CAR

$$

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KDMX [151804]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 151804
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
104 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0747 AM FLOOD 3 WSW WIOTA 41.38N 94.94W
10/15/2007 CASS IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

JACKSON ROAD AT 650TH CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0840 AM FLOOD 6 NNW CARBON 41.13N 94.87W
10/15/2007 ADAMS IA EMERGENCY MNGR

110TH AND BIRCH - WATER FLOWING OVER ROAD AND THE ROAD IS
BARRICADED.

&&

$$

BAKER

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KSJT [151735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 151735
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1234 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM HAIL TELEGRAPH 30.33N 99.91W
10/15/2007 E0.75 INCH KIMBLE TX PUBLIC

HAIL PILED UP 6 INCHES DEEP IN PLACES.

&&

$$

07

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151723
SWODY2
SPC AC 151721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..IND/LOWER MID/NWRN OH...

MID MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS IL INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH ANY MEANINGFUL
HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A
RESULT...TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY WITH
WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS IND INTO LOWER MI BY MID DAY WHERE SBCAPE VALUES
COULD APPROACH 500 J/KG WITHIN FAVORED ZONE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN GUSTY WINDS AT
BEST.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG SPEED MAX WILL DIG SEWD INTO AZ LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WRN
U.S. TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
SRN ROCKIES. SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS AFTER 00Z WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
IN RESPONSE TO SHARPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS ERN CO/NM. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY AID AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR
800 MB WILL ATTAIN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR ROBUST ELEVATED
UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.
ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR STORM ROTATION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVOR HAIL GENERATION
WITH MANY STORMS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

.DARROW.. 10/15/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151620
SWODY1
SPC AC 151617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

..SRN PLAINS...
SFC/UPR LOW CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING NEWD INTO IA TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN MO/KS BORDER TO NWRN TX.
FRONT WILL MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN AS SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS GRADUALLY RELAX.

PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN TX WSWWD TO CENTRAL TX
WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
VERY MOIST SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS S TX AND WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WHICH COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL
THRU THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL TX WHICH INTERSECTS UNSTABLE
SLY FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF.

ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...MLCAPES IN SRN TX WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON TO
2000 J/KG AND PRESENCE OF THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL EVENING.

BY THIS EVENING THE STRONGER UPPER FLOW ROTATES NEWD AWAY FROM THE
TX WARM SECTOR WHICH ALONG WITH SURFACE STABILIZATION SHOULD END THE
SEVERE CONCERN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS FURTHER E ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK.

..IA...
SOME HEATING WILL DEVELOP FROM MO NWD INTO IA AHEAD OF FRONT AND LOW
SYSTEM BASED ON THE CLEARING IN DRY SLOT NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.
MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG AND COOL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WILL SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON INTO IA AND NRN MO.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO HAIL IN THE MORE VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS GENERALLY 10-20KT
AHEAD OF THE RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE/UPPER LOW.

.HALES/LEVIT.. 10/15/2007

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KFWD [151620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 151620
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1119 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM TSTM WND DMG MALAKOFF 32.17N 96.01W
10/15/2007 HENDERSON TX KCKL RADIO STATION

200 FEET OF A 300 FOOT RADIO TOWER FELL DURING HIGH
WINDS AT MALAKOFF...ATHENS AREA

$$

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KFWD [151605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 151605
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1105 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD PLANO 33.05N 96.75W
10/15/2007 COLLIN TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

DALLAS MORNING NEWS REPORTED
PLANO FIRE CHIEF SAID PLANO IS UNDER WATER. OVER 30 CALLS RELATED TO HIGH WATER AND MANY RESCUES FROM STRANDED VEHICLES.

$$

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KFWD [151519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 151519
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1019 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 AM FLASH FLOOD MESQUITE 32.77N 96.60W
10/15/2007 DALLAS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

12 INCHES OF WATER OVER I-635 AT MESQUITE

$$

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KFWD [151518]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 151518
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1018 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 E MCKINNEY 33.20N 96.60W
10/15/2007 COLLIN TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TEXAS HIGHWAY 5 CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER ROAD. HIGH
WATER CAR RESCUE WAS DONE.

$$

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KFWD [151515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 151515
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1015 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0842 AM FLASH FLOOD FARMERSVILLE 33.16N 96.36W
10/15/2007 COLLIN TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

US 380 IN FARMERSVILLE HAD A CAR RESCUE DUE TO HIGH
WATER

$$

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KOUN [151455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOUN 151455
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
954 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 8 S TALOGA 35.92N 98.96W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH DEWEY OK PUBLIC

0558 PM HAIL 2 S PUTNAM 35.83N 98.97W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH DEWEY OK PUBLIC

0644 PM TSTM WND GST GOLTRY 36.53N 98.15W
10/14/2007 E65.00 MPH ALFALFA OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0644 PM HAIL GOLTRY 36.53N 98.15W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH ALFALFA OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0644 PM HAIL ALTUS 34.64N 99.33W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH JACKSON OK AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED AT ALTUS AFB

0648 PM TSTM WND GST ALTUS 34.64N 99.33W
10/14/2007 M63.00 MPH JACKSON OK AWOS

ALTUS AFB

0651 PM HAIL 7 ENE ALTUS 34.68N 99.22W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH JACKSON OK AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED AT FRIENDSHIP

0702 PM HAIL 4 W POND CREEK 36.67N 97.87W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH GRANT OK PUBLIC

0711 PM HAIL 8 S GOTEBO 34.96N 98.87W
10/14/2007 E1.75 INCH KIOWA OK AMATEUR RADIO

0717 PM HAIL MOUNTAIN VIEW 35.10N 98.75W
10/14/2007 E1.75 INCH KIOWA OK AMATEUR RADIO

0731 PM HAIL 1 S SNYDER 34.64N 98.95W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH KIOWA OK AMATEUR RADIO

0732 PM HAIL MOUNTAIN PARK 34.70N 98.95W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH KIOWA OK AMATEUR RADIO

0735 PM HAIL 6 WSW FREDERICK 34.36N 99.11W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO

0742 PM HAIL CARNEGIE 35.10N 98.60W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

EAST SIDE OF CARNEGIE.

0756 PM HAIL FORT COBB 35.10N 98.44W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

0805 PM HAIL 2 E NILES 35.43N 98.21W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH CANADIAN OK PUBLIC

0807 PM HAIL 2 W BOONE 34.90N 98.51W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH CADDO OK BROADCAST MEDIA

0840 PM HAIL 8 E INDIAHOMA 34.62N 98.61W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

0842 PM HAIL 11 E DAVIDSON 34.24N 98.89W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO

0855 PM HAIL 5 WSW GRANDFIELD 34.20N 98.77W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO

0857 PM TSTM WND DMG BETHANY 35.51N 97.64W
10/14/2007 OKLAHOMA OK AMATEUR RADIO

WINDOWS BLOWN OUT NEAR COLLEGE.

0857 PM TSTM WND DMG OKLAHOMA CITY 35.47N 97.51W
10/14/2007 OKLAHOMA OK AMATEUR RADIO

ROOF DAMAGE AT 2300 BLOCK OF NW 122ND.

0904 PM HAIL 6 WSW GRANDFIELD 34.20N 98.78W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO

0910 PM HAIL MUSTANG 35.39N 97.72W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH CANADIAN OK PUBLIC

0912 PM TSTM WND GST OKLAHOMA CITY 35.47N 97.51W
10/14/2007 E60.00 MPH OKLAHOMA OK AMATEUR RADIO

NW 192ND AND WESTERN

0915 PM HAIL OKLAHOMA CITY 35.47N 97.51W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH OKLAHOMA OK AMATEUR RADIO

NW 10TH AND MAY.

0940 PM HAIL GRANDFIELD 34.23N 98.69W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO

1001 PM HAIL CENTRAL HIGH 34.61N 98.09W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH STEPHENS OK BROADCAST MEDIA

1012 PM HAIL W MARLOW 34.64N 97.96W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH STEPHENS OK AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

DW/FM

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KICT [151354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 151354
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
853 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N GODDARD 37.73N 97.58W
10/14/2007 SEDGWICK KS PUBLIC

ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF 219TH STREET WEST AND 21ST
STREET NORTH, 2 LARGE TREES WERE SNAPPED NEAR THE GROUND,
18 SECTIONS TO A 6 FOOT TALL FARM FENCE WERE BLOW DOWN
AND 2 BARNS WERE DAMAGED, ONE WITH THE METAL ROOF PEELED
UP.

&&

$$

CDB

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KFWD [151347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 151347
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
847 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM TSTM WND DMG HILLSBORO 32.01N 97.12W
10/15/2007 HILL TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN. SHINGLES OFF ROOFS IN HILLSBORO

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2084

ACUS11 KWNS 151252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151252
TXZ000-151515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...N-CENTRAL AND NERN TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151252Z - 151515Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS...MRGLLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS
SHORT-LIVED TORNADIC SPIN-UP ASSOCIATED WITH LEWP/BOW CIRCULATION --
HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS METROPLEX EWD ACROSS PORTIONS COLLIN/DALLAS/ROCKWALL
COUNTIES ENEWD TOWARD MORRIS/BOWIE/WOOD/FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 1230Z FROM MILLS TO COLLIN
COUNTIES -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES EWD
INTO VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70
F...IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY. 12Z FWD RAOB --
LAUNCHED IN IMMEDIATE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT -- APPEARS QUITE
REPRESENTATIVE OF NRN END OF MOISTURE PLUME AND OF KINEMATIC
PROFILES WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2300 J/KG...MLCAPE APCHG 2000 J/KG...AND
JUST ENOUGH SFC THETAE TO BASE EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCEL AT GROUND
LEVEL.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS
ACTIVITY...EXTENDING FROM METROPLEX ROUGHLY ENEWD INVOF I-30 TOWARD
TXK. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY...ALONG AND E OF
APPARENT MESOLOW LOCATED INVOF DFW AIRPORT AS OF 1230Z. THIS
MESOLOW CORRESPONDS CLOSELY TO LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN -- LEWP --
FORMATION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TSTM BAND. MORE LEWP/BOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH
NWRN TX. WHILE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES ARE EVIDENT IN 2-4 KM AGL
HODOGRAPHS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES UP TO 60 KT ARE ANALYZED
OVER THIS REGION...IN SUPPORT OF POTENTIAL FOR MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITH EITHER SUSTAINED/DISCRETE STORMS OR BOWS/LEWPS.
LATTER REMAINS MORE LIKELY IN THIS REGIME...ESPECIALLY WHERE
DEVELOPING MCS INTERSECTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND VORTICITY WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED.

.EDWARDS.. 10/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...

31509852 32209759 33019704 33269550 33349451 32829439
32259498 31369642 30959800

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151250
SWODY1
SPC AC 151247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND NE TX...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW/TROUGH NOW OVER SW NEB EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY ENE THIS
PERIOD...IN TANDEM WITH RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH
NE NEB BY 12Z TUESDAY AND MAY ASSUME A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT AS
BROAD/DIFFLUENT E PACIFIC TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE WRN U.S. SFC LOW
WITH NEB TROUGH SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS FAR ERN NEB/WRN IA
TODAY/TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT DRIFTS E AND FURTHER
WEAKENS.

..CNTRL/NE TX INTO THE ARKLATEX...
SEASONABLY RICH BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE IS NOW PRESENT OVER MUCH OF
SRN AND ERN TX AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD ASSOCIATED WITH NEB UPR
TROUGH. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...MARITIME AIR
MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE AFTN INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE
INCREASING TO AOA 1500 J/KG IN AREAS EXPERIENCING EVEN MODEST SFC
HEATING.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED. BUT SATELLITE/VWP
AND MODEL DATA DO SUGGEST THAT CNTRL AND NE TX WILL BE WITHIN
ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/HI LVL JET STREAK NOW CROSSING THE TX BIG
BEND. TSTMS NOW ALONG COLD FRONT IN CNTRL TX MAY REINTENSIFY WITH
HEATING LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
FARTHER E ALONG WEAK N/S WARM FRONT MARKING LEADING EDGE OF MARITIME
AIR IN ERN PART OF THE STATE....AND ALONG W/E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT
BY OVERNIGHT MCS IN THE ARKLATEX,

COMBINATION OF MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL SCALE BOWS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT.

..FAR ERN NEB INTO WRN/NRN IA...
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18 C/ WILL EDGE
E/NE ACROSS THE MID/LWR MO VLY THIS AFTN AS DIFFUSE MID LVL DRY SLOT
ROTATES N/NE ACROSS REGION. WEAKNESS OF SFC LOW AND CONFIGURATION
OF EXISTING LOW LVL MOISTURE/WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE LIMITED. BUT EVEN MODEST BOUNDARY LYR WARMING INVOF
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE AXIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCTD
AFTN CONVECTION/POSSIBLE TSTMS ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT AS SBCAPE
INCREASES TO 300-500 J PER KG. A FEW SPOTS OF HAIL MAY OCCUR GIVEN
COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SVR
ACTIVITY APPEARS MINIMAL.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/15/2007

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KFSD [151248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFSD 151248
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
748 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 AM HAIL 4 E PARKER 43.40N 97.06W
10/06/2007 M1.00 INCH TURNER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1245 AM HAIL 2 SW BEAVER CREEK 43.59N 96.39W
10/06/2007 E0.75 INCH ROCK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0126 AM HAIL 1 ESE MAGNOLIA 43.64N 96.05W
10/06/2007 E0.75 INCH NOBLES MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0126 AM HAIL 1 ESE MAGNOLIA 43.64N 96.06W
10/06/2007 E0.75 INCH ROCK MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0220 AM HAIL 3 ENE FARMER 43.74N 97.63W
10/06/2007 E0.88 INCH HANSON SD PUBLIC

HAIL FELL FOR 10 MINUTES. ACCOMPANIED BY ABOUT A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN WITH LITTLE WIND.

0235 AM HAIL 2 N SPENCER 43.76N 97.59W
10/06/2007 E1.00 INCH MCCOOK SD PUBLIC

HAIL OF VARYING SIZES UP TO QUARTER SIZE FELL. HAIL
LASTED FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

&&

$$

BT

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KICT [151241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 151241
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
741 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM HAIL NORWICH 37.46N 97.85W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH KINGMAN KS CO-OP OBSERVER

DELAYED REPORT. PENNY HAIL REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER.
TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

CDB

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KOAX [151043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 151043
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
543 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM FLOOD 1 E AUBURN 42.25N 94.86W
10/15/2007 CALHOUN IA EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHWAY 136 EAST OF AUBURN DOWN TO ONE LANE. WATER
FLOWING ONTO ROAD.

&&

$$

MILLER

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KDMX [151026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 151026
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
526 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 AM FLOOD 4 SW MENLO 41.47N 94.45W
10/15/2007 ADAIR IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER HIGHWAY 25 JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
POSSIBLY FROM MIDDLE RIVER. FROM ADAIR COUNTY SHERIFF.

&&

$$

SMALL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2083

ACUS11 KWNS 150935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150934
TXZ000-151200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN...W-CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 150934Z - 151200Z

TSTM COVERAGE FCST TO CONTINUE INCREASING BETWEEN MWL AREA AND
CROCKETT COUNTY...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 9Z AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATE COLD FRONT
FROM NEAR INK EWD ACROSS COKE COUNTY AND ABI AREA TO VICINITY CLAY
COUNTY...MOVING SWD AND SSEWD 15-20 KT...AND INTERSECTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NW MWL. FRONT IS PRECEDED AT LEAST BETWEEN MWL-SJT BY
UNDULAR BORES MOVING SEWD 20-25 KT. INITIALLY DISCRETE TSTMS
APPEARED TO INITIATE ON UVM SIDES OF THOSE BORES BETWEEN
RUNNELS-EASTLAND COUNTIES AND ARE FILLING/INCREASING IN COVERAGE.
COLD FRONT SHOULD UNDERCUT CONVECTION FROM NW-SE...WITH DEEPENING
WEDGE OF CAA IN BOUNDARY LAYER RENDERING INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. UNTIL THAT OCCURS...PRIND
TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD RICHER LOW LEVEL THETAE NOW EVIDENT
GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-20...W OF DFW METROPLEX. SLOW DIABATIC
COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS TO REACH
SFC...AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION SHOULD PREVAIL. HOWEVER...MUCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG JUXTAPOSED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-50 KT MAY SUPPORT
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER WSW...TSTMS HAVE FORMED BETWEEN IRION AND NRN TERRELL
COUNTIES IN AREA OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...EVIDENT IN
SURROUNDING/MESOSCALE PLUME OF IR CLOUD TOP COOLING. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ARE WEAKER THAN FARTHER E
OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY FURTHER ORGANIZE THIS ACTIVITY WITH
ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS TO LIFT ALSO
MAY BE PROVIDED BY UVM SIDES OF OSCILLATIONS PROPAGATING SEWD AS
ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH WRN PORTION OF BORE FIELD.

.EDWARDS.. 10/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30650210 30870136 31280085 31930011 32259946 32909853
33019803 32699758 32099798 31269866 30609951 30150118

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150901
SWOD48
SPC AC 150901

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

..DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO ENOUGH AGREEMENT -- AT LEAST FOR DAY 4 /THU.
OCT. 18/ -- THAT SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO INTRODUCE A SEVERE
AREA CENTERED ON THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME DEGREE OF INTENSITY/TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE MAIN FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
DAY 4. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. MODELS
FORECAST STRONG SHEAR /50 TO 60 KT SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS/...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.

DAY 5...SOME THREAT MAY EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...THOUGH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED -- WITH THE GFS COLD
FRONTAL POSITION W OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 20/00Z...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEPICTS THIS FRONT NEARLY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...WILL NOT
INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK AREA DAY 5. BEYOND DAY 5...MODEL DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED...CASTING FURTHER UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

.GOSS.. 10/15/2007

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KDMX [150740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 150740
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
240 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 SW GUTHRIE CENTER 41.61N 94.59W
10/15/2007 GUTHRIE IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS UNDER WATER.

&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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KDMX [150738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 150738
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
238 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM FLASH FLOOD CASEY 41.51N 94.52W
10/15/2007 GUTHRIE IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER WHITE POLE ROAD 1 MILE WEST OF CASEY.

&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150732
SWODY3
SPC AC 150730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN
PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL BE A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ON
THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGER-SCALE FEATURE. THIS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS INVOF WRN KS.
A TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING S FROM THIS LOW WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS FROM NEB SWD INTO CENTRAL TX...
SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE. CLUSTERS OF STORMS -- AND POSSIBLY FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER -- MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE RISK AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RETARD AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT POCKETS OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING FOCUSED INVOF DRYLINE
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

WITH 60 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE RISK
AREA ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE
STRONG -- SUGGESTING THAT STORMS WILL RAPIDLY ACQUIRE UPDRAFT
ROTATION. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR ALSO
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT. WHILE QUESTIONS REMAIN ATTM
-- AS DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS ARE
DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK/15% SEVERE
PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST. SHOULD IT BECOME CLEARER IN LATER
FORECASTS THAT MORE FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION MAY BE POSSIBLE --
THUS SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT...AN UPGRADE IN
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY WOULD BE REQUIRED.

.GOSS.. 10/15/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2082

ACUS11 KWNS 150730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150730
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-151030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN OK...N-CENTRAL/NE
TX...W-CENTRAL/SWRN AR.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 150730Z - 151030Z

RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE LIKELY IN STRONGEST CORES OF TSTMS
WITHIN DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z.

TWO INITIALLY SEPARATED CONVECTIVE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND/MERGE INTO ONE ANOTHER ACROSS SERN OK AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL
TX...

1. BAND OF TSTMS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT -- NOTED AT 7Z FROM FSM
AREA SWWD ACROSS ADM TO CLAY COUNTY TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
SEWD FASTER ON ERN END THAN OVER RED RIVER VALLEY REGION...LEADING
TO REORIENTATION OF ITS AXIS MORE PARALLEL TO MEAN FLOW VECTOR...AND
THEREFORE...MORE SUITABLE CONVECTIVE GEOMETRY FOR ECHO TRAINING.
COLD FRONT OVER W-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SW OK WILL OVERTAKE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM SW-NE AND PROVIDE EFFECTIVE WRN BOUND FOR HEAVIEST
RAIN THREAT.

2. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN
IRREGULARLY SHAPED COMPLEX...EXTENDING FROM SRN/ERN FRINGES OF DFW
METROPLEX NEWD INTO PUSHMATAHA/MCCURTAIN COUNTIES OK...AND
MOVING/EXPANDING NEWD TOWARD OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF SWRN AR.
ASSOCIATED SFC MARINE/WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED ROUGHLY ALONG I-45
FROM DAL SSEWD...DRIFTING NWD. ELEVATED INFLOW AIR MASS IS BECOMING
MORE MOIST WITH TIME...AS MORE COMPLETELY MODIFIED MARINE
TRAJECTORIES SW OF FRONT MOVE ISENTROPICALLY NEWD AND REACH
LFC...INVOF 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ. GPS PW NEAR 1.75 INCHES OVER E TX
SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD OVER NE TX AND SE OK...THEN SPREAD OVER WRN AR.
RUC INDICATES 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAX WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS
NE TX...FAR SERN OK AND WRN AR THROUGH 14Z. LLJ IS FCST TO VEER
THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...AND WEAKEN AFTER 12Z.

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MERGER PROCESS WILL INCREASE PROBABILITIES OF
LOCAL CELL MERGERS. THAT IN TURN WILL ENHANCE/MAINTAIN POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT ALREADY HAS BEEN INDICATED WITHIN STRONGEST
CORES OF EACH INDIVIDUAL AREA.

.EDWARDS.. 10/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

33459826 34159755 34789620 35399429 34979387 34169384
33499455 32499603 32709743

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