MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2082

ACUS11 KWNS 150730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150730
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-151030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN OK...N-CENTRAL/NE
TX...W-CENTRAL/SWRN AR.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 150730Z - 151030Z

RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE LIKELY IN STRONGEST CORES OF TSTMS
WITHIN DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z.

TWO INITIALLY SEPARATED CONVECTIVE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND/MERGE INTO ONE ANOTHER ACROSS SERN OK AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL
TX...

1. BAND OF TSTMS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT -- NOTED AT 7Z FROM FSM
AREA SWWD ACROSS ADM TO CLAY COUNTY TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
SEWD FASTER ON ERN END THAN OVER RED RIVER VALLEY REGION...LEADING
TO REORIENTATION OF ITS AXIS MORE PARALLEL TO MEAN FLOW VECTOR...AND
THEREFORE...MORE SUITABLE CONVECTIVE GEOMETRY FOR ECHO TRAINING.
COLD FRONT OVER W-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SW OK WILL OVERTAKE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM SW-NE AND PROVIDE EFFECTIVE WRN BOUND FOR HEAVIEST
RAIN THREAT.

2. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN
IRREGULARLY SHAPED COMPLEX...EXTENDING FROM SRN/ERN FRINGES OF DFW
METROPLEX NEWD INTO PUSHMATAHA/MCCURTAIN COUNTIES OK...AND
MOVING/EXPANDING NEWD TOWARD OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF SWRN AR.
ASSOCIATED SFC MARINE/WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED ROUGHLY ALONG I-45
FROM DAL SSEWD...DRIFTING NWD. ELEVATED INFLOW AIR MASS IS BECOMING
MORE MOIST WITH TIME...AS MORE COMPLETELY MODIFIED MARINE
TRAJECTORIES SW OF FRONT MOVE ISENTROPICALLY NEWD AND REACH
LFC...INVOF 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ. GPS PW NEAR 1.75 INCHES OVER E TX
SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD OVER NE TX AND SE OK...THEN SPREAD OVER WRN AR.
RUC INDICATES 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAX WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS
NE TX...FAR SERN OK AND WRN AR THROUGH 14Z. LLJ IS FCST TO VEER
THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...AND WEAKEN AFTER 12Z.

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MERGER PROCESS WILL INCREASE PROBABILITIES OF
LOCAL CELL MERGERS. THAT IN TURN WILL ENHANCE/MAINTAIN POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT ALREADY HAS BEEN INDICATED WITHIN STRONGEST
CORES OF EACH INDIVIDUAL AREA.

.EDWARDS.. 10/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

33459826 34159755 34789620 35399429 34979387 34169384
33499455 32499603 32709743

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