DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020103
SWODY1
SPC AC 020100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF MIGRATORY UPPER
LOW...WITH OTHER STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/EASTERN NM
MAINLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATE TONIGHT...VIA AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME...OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM ON THE EDGE OF THE EML ACROSS EASTERN KS AND SURROUNDING
PORTIONS OF OK/NEB. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITHIN THESE AFOREMENTIONED REGIMES...BUT MODEST MOISTURE AND/OR A
DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER IS SUGGESTIVE OF A LIMITED SEVERE RISK
OVERALL.

...SOUTHERN AZ...
HOT/DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS MAY PROMOTE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS/BLOWING
DUSTS WITH WESTWARD DEVELOPING STORMS/OUTFLOW THIS EVENING...BUT A
QUASI-ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK SEEMS UNLIKELY.

..GUYER.. 09/02/2009

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KFGZ [020049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 020049
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
549 PM MST TUE SEP 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM TSTM WND GST ST. JOHNS 34.51N 109.38W
09/01/2009 M64 MPH APACHE AZ ASOS

&&

$$

DB

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KMPX [012106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMPX 012106
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM TORNADO 4 S MINNEAPOLIS 44.91N 93.27W
08/19/2009 HENNEPIN MN NWS STORM SURVEY

AN NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED AN EF-0 TORNADO
TRACKED FROM NEAR EAST 53RD STREET AND PARK AVENUE IN
SOUTH MINNEAPOLIS...TO NEAR THE CONVENTION CENTER IN
DOWNTOWN MINNEAPOLIS. DAMAGE WAS PRIMARILY LARGE TREES
DOWNED...SEVERAL OF WHICH FELL ON STRUCTURES. THE PATH
LENGTH WAS APPROXIMATELY 4.5 MILES WITH A MAXIMUM WIDTH
OF 500 YARDS.

0216 PM TORNADO 4 N CANNON FALLS 44.57N 92.91W
08/19/2009 DAKOTA MN NWS STORM SURVEY

DAMAGE SURVEY DETERMINED AN EF-1 TORNADO WAS ON THE
GROUND FOR 1.6 MILES. IT COMPLETELY REMOVED THE ROOF OF A
HOUSE AND DESTROYED SEVERAL LARGE SHEDS AND OTHER
OUTBUILDINGS. THE TORNADO ALSO MOVED THROUGH SEVERAL CORN
FIELDS. MAXIMUM WIDTH WAS 50 YARDS. IT DISSIPATED ONE
MILE SOUTHEAST OF NEW TRIER.

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG BROOKLYN PARK 45.11N 93.35W
08/19/2009 HENNEPIN MN NWS STORM SURVEY

SCATTERED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS ACROSS A BROAD AREA 3/4
BY 1/2 MILE WERE KNOCKED OVER DUE TO A DOWNBURST JUST
NORTHEAST OF HWY 252 AND 85TH AVENUE.

0240 PM TORNADO 4 SE COTTAGE GROVE 44.78N 92.87W
08/19/2009 WASHINGTON MN NWS STORM SURVEY

AN NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED AN EF-1 TORNADO TRACK
FROM NEAR US HWY 61 AND 122ND ST SOUTH...TO NEAR LEHIGH
AVENUE SOUTH ON THE FAR SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF COTTAGE
GROVE. LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED OR SHEARED OFF AND MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OCCURRED TO RESIDENCES. THE PATH LENGTH
WAS NEAR ONE HALF OF A MILE WITH A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 75
YARDS.

0246 PM HEAVY RAIN BLOOMINGTON 44.83N 93.32W
08/19/2009 U0.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

NORMANDALE SERVICE ROAD FLOODED BETWEEN I494 AND WEST
84TH STR.

0255 PM HEAVY RAIN BLOOMINGTON 44.83N 93.32W
08/19/2009 U0.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN AMATEUR RADIO

ONE FOOT OF WATER ON I494 IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT I494 AND
LYNDALE AVE SOUTH.

0257 PM TORNADO 5 SE ELLSWORTH 44.68N 92.42W
08/19/2009 PIERCE WI NWS STORM SURVEY

DAMAGE SURVEY DETERMINED AN EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN
BRIEFLY JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROADS DD
AND V. THE TORNADO KNOCKED DOWN A NARROW STRIP OF CORN
FOR 0.2 MILE.

0305 PM TORNADO 1 NW HUDSON 44.98N 92.76W
08/19/2009 ST. CROIX WI NWS STORM SURVEY

TREES DOWN AT COUNTY ROAD UU AND LARSON LANE. TRACK
LENGTH WAS APPROXIMATELY ONE THIRD OF A MILE. TIME OF
EVENT IS ESTIMATED.

0307 PM TORNADO 1 SSE HAM LAKE 45.25N 93.20W
08/19/2009 ANOKA MN STORM CHASER

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN AN UNPOPULATED SECTION OF HAM LAKE.
RATED EF-0.

0325 PM TORNADO S MARINE ON ST CROIX 45.20N 92.77W
08/19/2009 WASHINGTON MN NWS STORM SURVEY

DAMAGE SURVEY REVEALED AN EF-0 TORNADO MOVED 0.7 MILE
THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTION OF MARINE ON ST CROIX.
SCATTERED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS WERE DOWNED.

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E HUDSON 44.97N 92.72W
08/19/2009 ST. CROIX WI AMATEUR RADIO

4 INCH BRANCHES IN ROAD AND WHOLE TREES DOWN ON HWY 12
ONE HALF TO ONE MILE EAST OF HUDSON.

0343 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 WNW ISANTI 45.53N 93.41W
08/19/2009 M5.50 INCH ISANTI MN TRAINED SPOTTER

5.5 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED BY SPOTTER IN SPENCER BROOK.

0345 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 S BRUNSWICK 45.72N 93.29W
08/19/2009 M4.40 INCH ISANTI MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 330 AM.

0358 PM TORNADO 3 SW EMERALD 45.06N 92.30W
08/19/2009 ST. CROIX WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN BRIEFLY SEVERAL TIMES AS IT TRACKED
NORTHWARD ALONG 250TH STREET FOR 1.4 MILES. VEGETATION
WAS OCCASIONALLY TORN UP AND TOSSED IN THE AIR.

0400 PM TORNADO SE NORTH BRANCH 45.51N 92.97W
08/19/2009 CHISAGO MN NWS STORM SURVEY

AN NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED AN EF-0 TORNADO
TRACKED FROM NEAR NORTH BRANCH MIDDLE SCHOOL TO NEAR
RIVERCREST AND RIVERVIEW COURTS. DAMAGE WAS DONE TO THE
MIDDLE SCHOOL ROOF...NEARBY TELEPHONE POLES...AND SMALL
TREES. THE PATH LENGTH WAS APPROXIMATELY ONE MILE WITH A
MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 200 YARDS.

0405 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WNW BRAHAM 45.74N 93.24W
08/19/2009 M6.00 INCH KANABEC MN TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL

0411 PM TORNADO FOREST 45.14N 92.26W
08/19/2009 ST. CROIX WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO ON GROUND AT HWY 64 AT HWY 63 INTERSECTION.

0415 PM TORNADO 2 N FOREST 45.17N 92.26W
08/19/2009 ST. CROIX WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO STILL ON GROUND AT INTERSECTION OF 270TH STR. AND
20TH AVE.

0420 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSE QUAMBA 45.87N 93.15W
08/19/2009 M4.40 INCH KANABEC MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL IN 12 HOURS. MUD CREEK IS OUT OF ITS
BANKS.

0454 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSW CAMBRIDGE 45.49N 93.25W
08/19/2009 M3.50 INCH ISANTI MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL OCCURED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

0628 PM TORNADO 3 E SPRINGFIELD 44.24N 94.92W
08/19/2009 BROWN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED SEEING FUNNEL CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS BETWEEN SPRINGFIELD AND
LEVANWORTH. REPORTS RECEIVED BETWEEN 628 AND 643 PM.

&&

$$

TDK

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KMPX [012053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 012053
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0216 PM TORNADO 4 N CANNON FALLS 44.57N 92.91W
08/19/2009 DAKOTA MN NWS STORM SURVEY

DAMAGE SURVEY DETERMINED AN EF-1 TORNADO WAS ON THE
GROUND FOR 1.6 MILES. IT COMPLETELY REMOVED THE ROOF OF A
HOUSE AND DESTROYED SEVERAL LARGE SHEDS AND OTHER
OUTBUILDINGS. THE TORNADO ALSO MOVED THROUGH SEVERAL CORN
FIELDS. MAXIMUM WIDTH WAS 50 YARDS. IT DISSIPATED ONE
MILE SOUTHEAST OF NEW TRIER.

0257 PM TORNADO 5 SE ELLSWORTH 44.68N 92.42W
08/19/2009 PIERCE WI NWS STORM SURVEY

DAMAGE SURVEY DETERMINED AN EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN
BRIEFLY JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROADS DD
AND V. THE TORNADO KNOCKED DOWN A NARROW STRIP OF CORN
FOR 0.2 MILE.

0307 PM TORNADO 1 SSE HAM LAKE 45.25N 93.20W
08/19/2009 ANOKA MN STORM CHASER

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN AN UNPOPULATED SECTION OF HAM LAKE.
RATED EF-0.

0325 PM TORNADO S MARINE ON ST CROIX 45.20N 92.77W
08/19/2009 WASHINGTON MN NWS STORM SURVEY

DAMAGE SURVEY REVEALED AN EF-0 TORNADO MOVED 0.7 MILE
THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTION OF MARINE ON ST CROIX.
SCATTERED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS WERE DOWNED.

0358 PM TORNADO 3 SW EMERALD 45.06N 92.30W
08/19/2009 ST. CROIX WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN BRIEFLY SEVERAL TIMES AS IT TRACKED
NORTHWARD ALONG 250TH STREET FOR 1.4 MILES. VEGETATION
WAS OCCASIONALLY TORN UP AND TOSSED IN THE AIR.

&&
DAMAGE SURVEYS COMPLETED.
$$

TDK

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KMPX [012051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMPX 012051
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG BROOKLYN PARK 45.11N 93.35W
08/19/2009 HENNEPIN MN NWS STORM SURVEY

SCATTERED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS ACROSS A BROAD AREA 3/4
BY 1/2 MILE WERE KNOCKED OVER DUE TO A DOWNBURST JUST
NORTHEAST OF HWY 252 AND 85TH AVENUE.

&&

$$

TDK

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KJAX [012007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 012007
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
406 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM FLOOD 6 N BRUNSWICK 31.23N 81.47W
09/01/2009 GLYNN GA EMERGENCY MNGR

THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT CHAPEL CROSSING
ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

PP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011952
SWODY1
SPC AC 011948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS CENTER OF UPPER VORT/LOW
OVER SERN MT...ROUGHLY 45E OF BIL...MOVING SLOWLY ESEWD. CU FIELD
IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND/DEEPEN ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS COMPACT
SYSTEM FROM NEAR MLS...TO WEST OF GCC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN BLACK HILLS REGION INTO SERN MT
WHERE LAPSE RATES HAVE NOW STEEPENED TO NEAR DRY ADIABATIC IN THE
LOWEST FEW KM. HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS...IN LINE WITH EARLIER THINKING.

...ELSEWHERE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AZ...NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO
SWRN CO. WEAK MCV IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST EAST OF EED.
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT
INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK AND DO NOT EXPECT ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE
DESERT VALLEYS TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

..DARROW.. 09/01/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009/

MUCH OF CONUS UNDER LATE SUMMER RATHER SLUGGISH FLOW PATTERN AS
PRIMARY WESTERLIES REMAIN ACROSS CANADA. COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTRAL
MT CONTINUES SLOWLY E/SE AROUND UPPER HIGH CENTERED VICINITY
4-CORNERS. A LITTLE STRONGER WESTERLIES S OF MT LOW CIRCULATION IS
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED
MIX LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...HI PLAINS...
JUST AHEAD OF THE MT UPPER LOW AND SWD VICINITY THE WEAK N/S SURFACE
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL HI PLAINS...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY MAX HEATING. SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG/E OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG.
WITH THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE SURFACE BASED INITIATION OCCURS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO HIGH
PLAINS PRIOR TO WEAKENING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...SRN AZ...
MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE NWD ACROSS SRN AND WRN
AZ. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/STEERING FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY
WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH HIGH LCL/S SHOULD AGAIN
SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
BASED ON NOT ONLY THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...BUT ALSO
LIMITED CAPE WITH THE STILL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

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KPSR [011925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 011925
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1225 PM MST TUE SEP 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0816 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ESE MESA 33.39N 111.67W
08/31/2009 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

EST 40MPH GUSTS IN TSTM. SEVERAL 3 INCH TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN.

&&

$$

WATERS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011713
SWODY2
SPC AC 011710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL SOON TOP WRN U.S. RIDGE AND DIG SEWD INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS STRENGTHING NWLY FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION.
ONE THING SEEMS APPARENT...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG N-S AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE THREAT OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS INVOF UPPER LOW...SWD INTO WRN KS...EPISODIC ELEVATED
THUNDER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY AND LATE IN THE PERIOD THROUGH
ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...MUCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WHERE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION MAY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.

...SWRN DESERT REGION...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL BAJA
PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD FORCE A SURGE OF
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN MEXICAN DESERTS INTO SRN
AZ/CA. PWAT VALUES SHOULD EASILY RISE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE
MEXICAN BORDER WHICH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
THICKER CLOUDINESS. STRONG HEATING NEAR THIS TRANSITION SHOULD
ENHANCE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL BENEATH
STRONGER/HEAVIER RAIN CORES.

..DARROW.. 09/01/2009

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KPDT [011615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...retransmitted

NWUS56 KPDT 011615
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
511 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

RETRANSMITTED FOR POSTING TO NWS PENDLETON HOMEPAGE.

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM HAIL ENE ENTERPRISE 45.43N 117.28W
08/29/2009 E1.25 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM HAIL ENE ENTERPRISE 45.43N 117.28W
08/29/2009 M1.00 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL, COVERING GROUND TO A DEPTH OF 1
INCH IN PLACES. SMALL LIMBS BROUGHT DOWN.

0605 PM HAIL ENE ENTERPRISE 45.43N 117.28W
08/29/2009 M1.00 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

GROUND WHITE WITH 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. SMALL BRANCHES
DOWN.

0625 PM HEAVY RAIN LOSTINE 45.49N 117.43W
08/29/2009 M1.10 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

RAIN GAGE IN LOSTINE MEASURED 1.1 INCHES IN ONE HOUR AND
0.85 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES.

0650 PM HAIL 2 S WALLOWA 45.54N 117.53W
08/29/2009 E0.25 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

1/4 INCH HAIL. HEAVY RAIN FLOODED DRIVEWAY BUT NO DAMAGE.

0650 PM HAIL WALLOWA 45.57N 117.53W
08/29/2009 E0.50 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

PLASTIC LAWN CHAIRS BLOWN ACROSS YARD. SMALL HAIL COVERED
GROUND WITH LARGEST HAIL 1/2 INCH.

0655 PM HAIL 2 W WALLOWA 45.57N 117.57W
08/29/2009 E0.50 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL. STRONG GUSTS BLEW A FEW SHINGLES
OFF ROOF OF HOME.

0700 PM HAIL 3 NW WALLOWA 45.60N 117.57W
08/29/2009 E1.00 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN FOR ALMOST AN HOUR BUT NO
FLOODING.

0830 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE ELGIN 45.58N 117.86W
08/29/2009 E1.50 INCH UNION OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CRICKET FLATS. NO FLOODING OBSERVED.

&&
SUMMARY OF THUNDERSTORM REPORTS FROM 29 AUG 2009.
$$

JM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011604
SWODY1
SPC AC 011601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MUCH OF CONUS UNDER LATE SUMMER RATHER SLUGGISH FLOW PATTERN AS
PRIMARY WESTERLIES REMAIN ACROSS CANADA. COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTRAL
MT CONTINUES SLOWLY E/SE AROUND UPPER HIGH CENTERED VICINITY
4-CORNERS. A LITTLE STRONGER WESTERLIES S OF MT LOW CIRCULATION IS
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED
MIX LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...HI PLAINS...
JUST AHEAD OF THE MT UPPER LOW AND SWD VICINITY THE WEAK N/S SURFACE
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL HI PLAINS...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY MAX HEATING. SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG/E OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG.
WITH THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE SURFACE BASED INITIATION OCCURS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO HIGH
PLAINS PRIOR TO WEAKENING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...SRN AZ...
MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE NWD ACROSS SRN AND WRN
AZ. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/STEERING FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY
WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH HIGH LCL/S SHOULD AGAIN
SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
BASED ON NOT ONLY THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...BUT ALSO
LIMITED CAPE WITH THE STILL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 09/01/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011254
SWODY1
SPC AC 011250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE LWR 48
OVER CNTRL CANADA THIS PERIOD...LEAVING THE STATES IN A SLUGGISH
REGIME FEATURING A RDG OVER THE SRN RCKYS...AND A BROAD TROUGH IN
THE EAST. IN BAND OF SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED FLOW TOPPING THE RDG...MT
UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO WRN SD BY 12Z WED...WHILE MID LVL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE LWR CO VLY.

AT LWR LVLS...DIFFUSE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SLOWLY S ACROSS FL AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND FARTHER SE OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST...BACKED BY
COOL/DRY SFC RDG THAT WILL FURTHER ELONGATE FROM THE ERN PLNS/GRT
LKS TO WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

...HI PLNS...
ESE MOTION OF MT UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES OVER THE NRN HI PLNS TODAY...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE IN WAKE OF
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN RCKYS...AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACCOMPANY
SLIGHT EWD EXPANSION OF UPR RDG INTO THE SRN HI PLNS. A FEW TSTMS
SHOULD FORM WITH SFC HEATING THIS AFTN IN NARROW N-S ZONE OF
INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ ALONG LEE TROUGH/MOISTURE
AXIS OVER THE NRN HI PLNS AND THE BLACK HILLS. COUPLED WITH BELT OF
30+ KT MID LVL WNWLY FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF MT LOW...SETUP MAY
SUPPORT A COUPLE SUSTAINED STORMS/WEAK SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS.

FARTHER S...WDLY SCTD AFTN STORMS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT HI PLNS OF CNTRL/ERN CO AND NE NM THIS AFTN/EARLY
TONIGHT. MID LVL FLOW SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER RELATIVE TO RECENT
DAYS. BUT STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT
A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH SVR
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...GIVEN STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 30-35 KT
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR.

...CNTRL/S FL...
WEAK IMPULSES NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY ARE FCST TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY
SRN PART OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF TODAY...WHERE RICH
MOISTURE /PW AROUND 2 INCHES/ PERSISTS INVOF OLD FRONT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITH SFC HEATING OVER CNTRL/SRN
FL...ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. DESPITE WEAK MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS.

...SRN AZ...
INCREASING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF UPR RDG
AND CONVECTION OVER NW MEXICO...AND 15-20 KT ESE MID LVL FLOW... MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THAT PROPAGATE WNW OFF THE SE AZ
MOUNTAINS. SOME EMBEDDED CELLS MAY YIELD GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS/BLOWING DUST OVER THE LWR DESERTS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 09/01/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010848
SWOD48
SPC AC 010848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE SEVERE THREAT AREA...

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES PERSISTS...AS DOES THE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...CONCERNING THE LONGER
TERM LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONG ZONAL
UPPER JET NOW NOSING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. WHILE THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MOST SCENARIOS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ORGANIZED REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS LOW.

..KERR.. 09/01/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010727
SWODY3
SPC AC 010725

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STRONG JET STREAK STILL DIGGING ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EVOLVING CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LEAD SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE...IMPACTING THE CASCADES EARLY IN THE PERIOD... WILL
RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THURSDAY. MUCH OF
THE NATION WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGER HIGH LEVEL
WESTERLIES...AND CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE SOMEWHAT
ENHANCED BY AN IMPULSE DIGGING WITHIN A PREVAILING BROADER SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION/SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...MODELS INDICATE THAT NORTHWESTERLY
500 MB WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN UP TO 30-35 KTS ACROSS KANSAS INTO
OKLAHOMA DURING THIS PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM
EARLY DAY CONVECTION PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY...AND A RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT...STEEP LAPSE RATES ON THE NOSE
OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ...PARTICULARLY IF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THIS
OCCURS...STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN A ZONE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

..KERR.. 09/01/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010547
SWODY1
SPC AC 010545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITHIN A RELATIVELY
AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME. SOUTHEAST STATES FRONTAL ZONE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FL/NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EAST
WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DETACHED FROM APPRECIABLE WESTERLIES...REMNANT UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.

...HIGH PLAINS...
AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER EASTERN MT TOWARD THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...RESIDUAL COOL POCKET ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE
HEIGHTS MODESTLY RISE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN VICINITY OF LEE SIDE SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH AND MOISTURE AXIS
ACROSS EASTERN MT/NORTHEAST WY AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN DAKOTAS. A
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEST BUOYANCY /500-1000 J PER KG
MUCAPE/ MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME TSTMS TO PRODUCE HAIL TO SEVERE
LEVELS AMIDST A WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.

FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY
AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODEST
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AND STRONGLY VEERED LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
/30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR STORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...
A MODESTLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PERHAPS ONE OR MORE
EMBEDDED SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY...WITH A CONTINUED GULF MOISTURE INFLUX
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON
ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN FL FRONTAL ZONE...WITH OTHER TSTMS LIKELY
FARTHER SOUTH IN VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE/S WITH PROSPECTS FOR
SOMEWHAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.
WHILE CLOUD COVER MAY TEND TO TEMPER HEATING...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIMITING FACTORS...A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS/PERHAPS PULSE HAIL ON
AN ISOLATED BASIS THIS AFTERNOON.

...SOUTHERN AZ...
WHILE DETAILS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR...IT SEEMS THAT MOISTURE MAY
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO SOUTHERN AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST AZ/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...OWING TO CONVECTION OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF HURRICANE JIMENA TOWARD
BAJA /PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/. AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...15-20 KT ESE STEERING
FLOW SAMPLED BY 00Z/SEP 1 OBSERVED RAOBS FROM TUCSON/PHOENIX SEEMS
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS/BLOWING DUST AS THEY DEVELOP ACROSS/ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..GUYER/GARNER.. 09/01/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010544
SWODY2
SPC AC 010542

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER WESTERLIES STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN GENERALLY WELL
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A STRONG ZONAL POLAR JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE MID
LATITUDE PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF A PREVIOUSLY CUT-OFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A BIT
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW STORMS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE UPPER RIDGING WEAKENS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST...
DOWNSTREAM FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A COUPLE OF SMALL MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS DIGGING EAST OF THE RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BUT...SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ALONG WITH HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES.

MEANWHILE...A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE OFF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU REMAINS POSSIBLE...AIDED BY
HURRICANE JIMENA. AND THIS WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT
LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
IN A BROKEN BAND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY... CONTRIBUTING TO
MODESTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AT
LEAST IN POCKETS. WITH NO GULF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING...MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAIN THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. SREF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 2000 J/KG.

WITHIN A BROADER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS
WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY
WEAKEN INHIBITION...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT
LAST LONG INTO THE EVENING...BUT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MAY
SUPPRESS DAYTIME CONVECTION. IF THIS OCCURS...STRONGER ACTIVITY
COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY IS STILL UNCLEAR...BUT THE RISK
FOR STORMS IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AND WEAK TO MODERATE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..KERR.. 09/01/2009

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