SWODY1
SPC AC 011601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MUCH OF CONUS UNDER LATE SUMMER RATHER SLUGGISH FLOW PATTERN AS
PRIMARY WESTERLIES REMAIN ACROSS CANADA. COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTRAL
MT CONTINUES SLOWLY E/SE AROUND UPPER HIGH CENTERED VICINITY
4-CORNERS. A LITTLE STRONGER WESTERLIES S OF MT LOW CIRCULATION IS
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED
MIX LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
...HI PLAINS...
JUST AHEAD OF THE MT UPPER LOW AND SWD VICINITY THE WEAK N/S SURFACE
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL HI PLAINS...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY MAX HEATING. SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG/E OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG.
WITH THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE SURFACE BASED INITIATION OCCURS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO HIGH
PLAINS PRIOR TO WEAKENING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
...SRN AZ...
MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE NWD ACROSS SRN AND WRN
AZ. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/STEERING FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY
WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH HIGH LCL/S SHOULD AGAIN
SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
BASED ON NOT ONLY THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...BUT ALSO
LIMITED CAPE WITH THE STILL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
..HALES/GRAMS.. 09/01/2009
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