SWODY1
SPC AC 011250
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE LWR 48
OVER CNTRL CANADA THIS PERIOD...LEAVING THE STATES IN A SLUGGISH
REGIME FEATURING A RDG OVER THE SRN RCKYS...AND A BROAD TROUGH IN
THE EAST. IN BAND OF SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED FLOW TOPPING THE RDG...MT
UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO WRN SD BY 12Z WED...WHILE MID LVL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE LWR CO VLY.
AT LWR LVLS...DIFFUSE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SLOWLY S ACROSS FL AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND FARTHER SE OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST...BACKED BY
COOL/DRY SFC RDG THAT WILL FURTHER ELONGATE FROM THE ERN PLNS/GRT
LKS TO WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.
...HI PLNS...
ESE MOTION OF MT UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES OVER THE NRN HI PLNS TODAY...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE IN WAKE OF
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN RCKYS...AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACCOMPANY
SLIGHT EWD EXPANSION OF UPR RDG INTO THE SRN HI PLNS. A FEW TSTMS
SHOULD FORM WITH SFC HEATING THIS AFTN IN NARROW N-S ZONE OF
INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ ALONG LEE TROUGH/MOISTURE
AXIS OVER THE NRN HI PLNS AND THE BLACK HILLS. COUPLED WITH BELT OF
30+ KT MID LVL WNWLY FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF MT LOW...SETUP MAY
SUPPORT A COUPLE SUSTAINED STORMS/WEAK SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS.
FARTHER S...WDLY SCTD AFTN STORMS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT HI PLNS OF CNTRL/ERN CO AND NE NM THIS AFTN/EARLY
TONIGHT. MID LVL FLOW SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER RELATIVE TO RECENT
DAYS. BUT STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT
A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH SVR
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...GIVEN STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 30-35 KT
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR.
...CNTRL/S FL...
WEAK IMPULSES NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY ARE FCST TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY
SRN PART OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF TODAY...WHERE RICH
MOISTURE /PW AROUND 2 INCHES/ PERSISTS INVOF OLD FRONT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITH SFC HEATING OVER CNTRL/SRN
FL...ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. DESPITE WEAK MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS.
...SRN AZ...
INCREASING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF UPR RDG
AND CONVECTION OVER NW MEXICO...AND 15-20 KT ESE MID LVL FLOW... MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THAT PROPAGATE WNW OFF THE SE AZ
MOUNTAINS. SOME EMBEDDED CELLS MAY YIELD GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS/BLOWING DUST OVER THE LWR DESERTS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
TONIGHT.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 09/01/2009
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