Thursday, October 23, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240039
SWODY1
SPC AC 240036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR
WESTERLIES...BUT AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE PROGRESSES AROUND ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...THE CIRCULATION CENTER MAY FINALLY BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/
OZARK PLATEAU REGION TONIGHT. FURTHER EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION MAY COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPSTREAM POLAR JET STREAK NOSES EAST OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.

VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE COUPLING OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND A JET STREAK WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM....NEAR
THE GULF COAST. BUT...STRONGER UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED WELL INLAND OF THE GULF COAST.
THUS...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL/
EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN WEAK. WITH THE LARGE EASTERN
STATES SURFACE RIDGE ONLY PROGGED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF
THE COASTAL WATERS SEEMS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LOW.

HOWEVER...ABOVE THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN STATES RIDGE...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK COOLING ALOFT SPREADS EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LATEST MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY WELL BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

..KERR.. 10/24/2008

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KLBF [232114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 232114
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
413 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW 15 N NORTH PLATTE 41.35N 100.77W
10/23/2008 M3.0 INCH LINCOLN NE NWS EMPLOYEE

POWER OUTAGES REPORTED 15 MILES NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE.


&&

$$

JGARNER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231942
SWODY1
SPC AC 231939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/FL...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT LOCATED ACROSS THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...A BAND OF RAINFALL IS LOCATED
IN THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT. FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN MS AND THE FL PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS NEWD INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE SERN LA... MS...AL AND FL GULF COASTS. IN SPITE OF
THE WEAK INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A BOWING LINE
SEGMENT CAN MOVE NEWD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS BEFORE 12Z.

..BROYLES.. 10/23/2008

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KKEY [231917]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 231917
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
317 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0249 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
10/23/2008 M39 MPH GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS...OR 39 MPH...WAS MEASURED BY THE
C-MAN STATION ON PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT AT 249 PM EDT. THIS
WIND GUST WAS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING HEAVY SHOWER.


&&

$$

ROSS

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KDDC [231820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 231820
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
120 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1002 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSW DEERFIELD 37.92N 101.19W
10/21/2008 KEARNY KS EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 2 INJ *** THUNDERSTORM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN
90 AND 100 MPH DESTROYED 1 TRAILER HOUSE AND HEAVILY
DAMAGED ANOTHER. TWO OCCUPANTS OF THE DESTROYED TRAILER
WERE INJURED, ONE SERIOUSLY. THERE WERE ALSO 16 PIVOT
IRRIGATION SPRINKLERS OVERTURNED IN A 4 MILE RADIUS OF
THIS LOCATION. IN ADDITION, 20 POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED
AND A LARGE GRAIN BIN WAS DESTROYED. LARGE HAY BALES WERE
BLOWN AROUND AND ALL WINDOWS IN THE MACHINERY AND
VEHICLES WERE BLOWN OUT. DAMAGE ESTIMATES WERE 3-4
MILLION DOLLARS.


&&

$$

07

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KJAX [231716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 231716
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
116 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HIGH SURF FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
10/23/2008 FLAGLER FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FLAGLER BEACH FIRE AND RESCUE REPORTED 6 TO 8 FOOT SURF.

&&

$$

ECZ

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231712
SWODY2
SPC AC 231710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN GULF COAST STATES/SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
A LARGE AND WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWD ACROSS
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY FRIDAY. THE SRN END OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN
MS...SRN AL...SRN GA AND FL WHERE LOWER TO MID 60S F ARE FORECAST.
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ON
THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR A SFC TROUGH EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE SFC TROUGH AND CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD DURING
THE DAY REACHING THE ERN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN GA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MOIST AXIS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH
THE FASTER MOVING BOWING-LINE SEGMENTS WITH ACCESS TO LOCALLY
MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST AS FAR
SOUTH AS CNTRL FL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER.

..BROYLES.. 10/23/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231634
SWODY1
SPC AC 231633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COASTAL AREA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NWRN GULF THROUGH SERN LA WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS NWWD THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY TO A SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL KS. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM S FL NWWD THROUGH SE LA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD
FRONT. WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH SE LA INTO THE CNTRL GULF AND S FL.
HOWEVER...NWD RETREAT OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO ENELY OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING FROM GRADIENT BETWEEN NERN U.S. CP
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WEAK LOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF.

SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTRL GULF WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NWD LATER TONIGHT AS AN IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF MAY MOVE NWD AND APPROACH THE CNTRL
GULF COASTAL AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR LATE
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE
WARM FRONT WHERE LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE THE
SURFACE LAYER AS IT MOVES ONSHORE WHICH IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 10/23/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231632
SWODY1
SPC AC 231630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COASTAL AREA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NWRN GULF THROUGH SERN LA WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS NWWD THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY TO A SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL KS. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM S FL NWWD THROUGH SE LA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD
FRONT. WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH SE LA INTO THE CNTRL GULF AND S FL.
HOWEVER...NWD RETREAT OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO ENELY OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING FROM GRADIENT BETWEEN NERN U.S. CP
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WEAK LOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF.

SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTRL GULF WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NWD LATER TONIGHT AS AN IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF MAY MOVE NWD AND APPROACH THE CNTRL
GULF COASTAL AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR LATE
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE
WARM FRONT WHERE LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE THE
SURFACE LAYER AS IT MOVES ONSHORE WHICH IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..DIAL.. 10/23/2008

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KOAX [231316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 231316
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
816 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W PACIFIC JUNCTION 41.02N 95.86W
10/23/2008 M1.70 INCH MILLS IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MILLER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231238
SWODY1
SPC AC 231235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL GULF CST REGION...
CDFNT THAT SURGED E OF THE MS DELTA AND CNTRL LA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL STALL TODAY IN WAKE OF THE MID-LVL IMPULSE EJECTING NWD INTO
THE MID-MS VLY. 12Z MESOANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WAS BECOMING SQUEEZED BY THE APCH OF COLDER AIR FROM THE W
AND THE ELY TRANSPORT OF LWR THETA-E AIR MASS EMANATING FROM THE
SERN ATLC RIDGE. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO APPRECIABLE CHANGE AS THE LOW-LVL FLOW MAINTAINS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OWING TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN THE CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO.

OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVR THE PLNS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD
TODAY...AWAITING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE FROM THE HIPLNS TO
THE LWR MS VLY LATER TONIGHT. AS IT APCHS THE REGION...THERE WILL
BE A LOW PROBABILITY THAT SCTD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR ERN
LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE OCEANIC INSTABILITY
RESERVOIR. MOST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE
SFC...BUT IF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAN MANAGE TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST...THERE WILL BE A SMALL RISK FOR A DMGG WIND
GUST/BRIEF TORNADO.

..RACY/BOTHWELL.. 10/23/2008

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KDDC [231047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 231047
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
546 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM TSTM WND DMG SCOTT CITY 38.48N 100.91W
10/21/2008 SCOTT KS STORM CHASER

A SIX INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN. THIS WAS A DELAYED REPORT.

&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230852
SWOD48
SPC AC 230851

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 7
/WED. OCT. 29/...WITH A LARGE TROUGH RE-EXPANDING ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AND THEN DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT -- ACCOMPANYING THE EXPANDING ERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH -- WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS DAYS 4-5
/SUN. OCT. 26 THROUGH MON. OCT 27/. HOWEVER...A PRIOR FRONT -- NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION -- WILL HAVE USHERED IN
A COOLER/STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...THUS LIMITING ANY
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT. THUS -- DESPITE
THE STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS.. 10/23/2008

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KGLD [230835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 230835
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W GOODLAND 39.35N 101.80W
10/23/2008 M62 MPH SHERMAN KS MESONET


&&

$$

MWM

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230732
SWODY3
SPC AC 230730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD. ON SMALLER SCALES...THE LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS A WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
SECOND TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD...REINFORCING THE MEAN TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES/ERN CANADA...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING SEWD OUT OF CANADA -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY
SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING COLD CONTINENTAL
CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

...THE ERN SEABOARD...
MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS
THE ERN CAROLINAS/ERN VA THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SWD INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. AS A RESULT -- WITH MOST FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS LIKELY OFFSET FROM THE STRONGER KINEMATICS...WILL
INCLUDE A FAIRLY LARGE BUT LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA ATTM. MAIN
THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NWD COULD
SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/23/2008

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KDDC [230652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 230652
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
152 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PRATT 37.65N 98.74W
10/22/2008 M58 MPH PRATT KS MESONET


&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230544
SWODY2
SPC AC 230543

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE AFFECTING THE U.S. THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH -- AND EMBEDDED UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED
INVOF THE MO/KS BORDER. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD WITH TIME
TOWARD THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE THE TROUGH ITSELF
SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER THE NERN GULF
ALONG THE EWD-MOVING FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN
FL/FAR SERN GA...AND EVENTUALLY TO COASTAL/ERN PORTIONS OF SC BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE EWD TO SRN SC...
MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES --
PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE LOWER 300 MB OF THE TROPOSPHERE -- SUGGEST
ANOTHER DAY OF MINIMAL PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY. WHILE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING ACROSS THE SERN
U.S. WITH TIME...THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS SHOULD AGAIN HINDER
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH AMPLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...A FEW STRONGER CELLS/CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS...AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT -- PARTICULARLY OVER SERN
PORTIONS OF GA/SC LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT
STILL APPEARS LOW -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 10/23/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230536
SWODY1
SPC AC 230533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CYCLONE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS HAS BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES...NOW GENERALLY NEAR/NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA. AND...EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD LIKELY WILL BE SLOW...MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE AROUND ITS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. IT APPEARS THAT THE COUPLING OF
THIS FEATURE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM COULD LEAD TO WEAK WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FORMING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN A
SLOW EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW MAY COMMENCE...AS
THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG POLAR JET STREAK NOSES EAST OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.

WHILE THE OCCLUDING SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SURFACE
LOW MAY STALL/WEAKEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE
EXPANSIVE EASTERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE SLOW TO
WEAKEN/RETREAT EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...A SHRINKING WARM SECTOR
WEDGE OF MOIST...POTENTIALLY POSITIVELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. COUPLED
WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...DUE TO
A RELATIVELY WARM MID/UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY/TONIGHT INLAND OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST APPEAR LOW.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
CYCLONIC MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CREATE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.
BUT...WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SMALL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD LIMIT
THE DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL...EVEN IF BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION BECOMES SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

..KERR/BOTHWELL.. 10/23/2008

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KGLD [230531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 230531
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1039 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GOODLAND 39.35N 101.71W
10/22/2008 M58 MPH SHERMAN KS ASOS


&&

$$

MBULLER

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KDDC [230448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDDC 230448
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1148 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 PM HAIL 10 ESE GARDEN CITY 37.92N 100.69W
10/21/2008 E1.25 INCH FINNEY KS PUBLIC

0850 PM HAIL 13 NNE GARDEN CITY 38.15N 100.77W
10/21/2008 E0.88 INCH FINNEY KS PUBLIC

0900 PM HAIL 13 N GARDEN CITY 38.17N 100.86W
10/21/2008 E1.75 INCH FINNEY KS PUBLIC

0908 PM HAIL 21 NW SYRACUSE 38.20N 102.02W
10/21/2008 E0.88 INCH HAMILTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0920 PM HAIL 11 ESE SHALLOW WATER 38.31N 100.72W
10/21/2008 E1.00 INCH SCOTT KS PUBLIC

HAIL ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZE.

0929 PM TSTM WND GST SYRACUSE 37.98N 101.75W
10/21/2008 E0.00 MPH HAMILTON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

POLICE ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.

0929 PM TSTM WND GST SE SYRACUSE 37.98N 101.75W
10/21/2008 M57.00 MPH HAMILTON KS BROADCAST MEDIA

THE WIND WAS MEASURED AT A KSNW WEATHERLAB SITE.

0940 PM HAIL 19 WSW JETMORE 37.98N 100.22W
10/21/2008 E0.75 INCH HODGEMAN KS PUBLIC

0947 PM HAIL 17 WSW JETMORE 37.99N 100.18W
10/21/2008 E0.88 INCH HODGEMAN KS PUBLIC

0954 PM TSTM WND GST W SCOTT CITY 38.48N 100.91W
10/21/2008 M64.00 MPH SCOTT KS EMERGENCY MNGR

THE WIND WAS MEASURED AT A KSNW WEATHERLAB SITE.

0955 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W LAKIN 37.94N 101.31W
10/21/2008 KEARNY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A SEMI WAS BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 50.

0958 PM TSTM WND GST SCOTT CITY 38.48N 100.91W
10/21/2008 E65.00 MPH SCOTT KS STORM CHASER

THE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 TO 70 MPH.

1002 PM TSTM WND GST W JOHNSON CITY 37.57N 101.76W
10/21/2008 M63.00 MPH STANTON KS BROADCAST MEDIA

THE WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT A KSNW WEATHERLAB SITE.

1002 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 E LAKIN 37.94N 101.15W
10/21/2008 KEARNY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO SEMIS WERE BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 50.

1007 PM TSTM WND GST E HOLCOMB 37.99N 100.98W
10/21/2008 M62.00 MPH FINNEY KS BROADCAST MEDIA

THE WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT A KSNW WEATHERLAB SITE.

1012 PM HAIL S AMY 38.45N 100.60W
10/21/2008 E1.00 INCH LANE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL IS COVERING THE GROUND AND KNOCKING LEAVES OFF OF
TREES.

1020 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N GARDEN CITY 38.01N 100.87W
10/21/2008 M67.00 MPH FINNEY KS PUBLIC

1025 PM TSTM WND GST 8 NE HICKOK 37.64N 101.13W
10/21/2008 E60.00 MPH GRANT KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1025 PM HAIL 2 W DIGHTON 38.48N 100.50W
10/21/2008 E1.00 INCH LANE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1030 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE JETMORE 38.09N 99.88W
10/21/2008 HODGEMAN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHWAY SIGNS AND TREE LIMBS UP TO THREE INCHES IN
DIAMETER WERE BLOWN DOWN.

1036 PM TSTM WND GST WNW ULYSSES 37.58N 101.36W
10/21/2008 M58.00 MPH GRANT KS BROADCAST MEDIA

THE WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT A KSNW WEATHERLAB SITE.

1040 PM HAIL 8 N BIG BOW 37.68N 101.56W
10/21/2008 E1.00 INCH STANTON KS PUBLIC

HAIL WAS ESTIMATED FROM NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE AND WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 MPH.

1040 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E DIGHTON 38.48N 100.45W
10/21/2008 LANE KS EMERGENCY MNGR

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MAJOR TRANSMISSION LINES AND POWER
POLES OCCURRED. AS MANY AS 30,000 METERS WERE WITHOUT
POWER FOLLOWING THE EVENT, AND SOME METERS MAY NOT BE
RESTORED FOR TWO DAYS. TREES IN DIGHTON WERE UPROOTED,
AND THE LANE COUNTY ROAD AND BRIDGE OFFICE LOST ITS ROOF.
OTHER BUILDINGS SUSTAINED SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. PEAK
WIND GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 MPH.

1050 PM HAIL 5 WSW GRAY 38.11N 99.71W
10/21/2008 E1.00 INCH HODGEMAN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

1110 PM TSTM WND GST HUGOTON 37.18N 101.35W
10/21/2008 M58.00 MPH STEVENS KS AWOS

1115 PM TSTM WND GST 6 S INGALLS 37.74N 100.45W
10/21/2008 E60.00 MPH GRAY KS PUBLIC

SMALL LIMBS WERE BLOWN FROM TREES.

1121 PM TSTM WND GST SW NESS CITY 38.45N 99.91W
10/21/2008 M59.00 MPH NESS KS BROADCAST MEDIA

THE WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT A KSNW WEATHERLAB SITE.

1122 PM TSTM WND GST JETMORE 38.08N 99.89W
10/21/2008 E55.00 MPH HODGEMAN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 TO 60 MPH. BIG TRASH
CONTAINERS WERE BEING MOVED AROUND.

1124 PM HAIL SUBLETTE 37.48N 100.85W
10/21/2008 E0.88 INCH HASKELL KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL RANGED FROM PEA TO NICKLE SIZED.

1135 PM TSTM WND GST LIBERAL 37.04N 100.94W
10/21/2008 M81.00 MPH SEWARD KS ASOS

1138 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ENE DODGE CITY 37.78N 99.97W
10/21/2008 M63.00 MPH FORD KS ASOS

1144 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NE ASH VALLEY 38.36N 99.14W
10/21/2008 E60.00 MPH RUSH KS PUBLIC

1153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E BELLEFONT 37.89N 99.56W
10/21/2008 E60.00 MPH EDWARDS KS BROADCAST MEDIA

THE WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT A KSNW WEATHERLAB SITE.

1200 AM TSTM WND GST 5 SW ALEXANDER 38.41N 99.61W
10/22/2008 E65.00 MPH NESS KS PUBLIC

MILO WAS ALSO REPORTED TO BE BLOWN OVER.

1205 AM TSTM WND GST MEADE 37.28N 100.34W
10/22/2008 E75.00 MPH MEADE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A LOT OF TREE DAMAGE REPORTED IN TOWN.

1210 AM TSTM WND DMG 7 NW BELLEFONT 37.96N 99.73W
10/22/2008 HODGEMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND BLEW WINDOWS OUT OF A DOOR ON THE HOUSE. ESTIMATED
SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH.

1220 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 E FRIZELL 38.18N 99.11W
10/22/2008 PAWNEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE LIMBS UP TO THREE INCHES IN DIAMETER WERE BLOWN
DOWN, AND PART OF THE GUTTER WAS BLOWN FROM THE HIGH
SCHOOL IN LARNED.

1225 AM HAIL 7 NE ASH VALLEY 38.35N 99.10W
10/22/2008 E1.00 INCH RUSH KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1230 AM TSTM WND GST 5 S OTIS 38.46N 99.06W
10/22/2008 E60.00 MPH RUSH KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0100 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 WNW COLDWATER 37.29N 99.43W
10/22/2008 COMANCHE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STRONG THNDERSTORM WINDS CAUSED ROOF DAMAGE AND TORE A
VENT OFF A BUS.

0100 AM TSTM WND GST 2 N COLDWATER 37.29N 99.34W
10/22/2008 E65.00 MPH COMANCHE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNE ROZEL 38.27N 99.34W
10/22/2008 M3.75 INCH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

THE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN A PERIOD OF 1.5 HOURS.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW ROZEL 38.22N 99.41W
10/22/2008 M5.00 INCH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

THE RAIN GAUGE RAN OVER. WATER WAS FLOWING OVER SOME
SECONDARY ROADWAYS.


&&

$$

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