SWODY3
SPC AC 230730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD. ON SMALLER SCALES...THE LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AS A WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
SECOND TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD...REINFORCING THE MEAN TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES/ERN CANADA...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING SEWD OUT OF CANADA -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY
SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING COLD CONTINENTAL
CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
...THE ERN SEABOARD...
MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS
THE ERN CAROLINAS/ERN VA THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SWD INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. AS A RESULT -- WITH MOST FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS LIKELY OFFSET FROM THE STRONGER KINEMATICS...WILL
INCLUDE A FAIRLY LARGE BUT LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA ATTM. MAIN
THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NWD COULD
SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 10/23/2008
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