WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 702

WWUS20 KWNS 230303
SEL2
SPC WW 230303
OKZ000-TXZ000-230300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 702 ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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KICT [230058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 230058
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
758 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0753 PM TSTM WND GST CEDAR VALE 37.11N 96.50W
10/22/2010 E50.00 MPH CHAUTAUQUA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0753 PM HAIL CEDAR VALE 37.11N 96.50W
10/22/2010 E1.00 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

DUNTEN

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KGID [230045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 230045
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
745 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0722 PM HAIL ELWOOD 40.59N 99.86W
10/22/2010 E0.75 INCH GOSPER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

WESELY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230038
SWODY1
SPC AC 230036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX INTO SERN OK...

...SRN PLAINS...

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EARLIER
SEVERE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY NEAR THE RED RIVER HAS GRADUALLY DECREASED
IN INTENSITY WITH ONLY A FEW CELLS LINGERING NEAR SPS. EVEN SO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS NCNTRL
TX INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO WHERE UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COOLING IT APPEARS
CONVECTION WILL BECOME ROOTED IN THE 900-950MB LAYER...THOUGH MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG COULD STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED ROBUST
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. REF MCD1966 FOR MORE INFO ON THIS THREAT.

EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A SECONDARY LOWER
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO EJECT ACROSS NM/NRN MEXICO
INTO FAR WEST TX. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SWRN TX LATE AIDING FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG-SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EMERGE
ACROSS THIS REGION BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN SPREAD NEWD TOWARD NCNTRL
TX INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 10/23/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1966

ACUS11 KWNS 230032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230032
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-230230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL OK...NRN TX...SERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 702...

VALID 230032Z - 230230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 702 CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 702 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED WITH
A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT. A SECONDARY OF THREAT MAY BE DEVELOPING
FROM NERN OK INTO SERN KS.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS PERSIST ACROSS N TX AS OF 00Z...BUT HAVE
SHOWN LITTLE SIGN OF BEING SEVERE. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS N TX AND OK...BENEATH A SWLY FLOW
REGIME AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SERN NM/FAR W
TX. THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE
ALONG WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...MOSTLY CONTAINED IN THE LOWEST 500 M. HOWEVER...THERE IS
LITTLE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

FARTHER N INTO NERN OK/SERN KS...STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXISTS NEAR THE 850 MB
LLJ CORE. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS...A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW.

..JEWELL.. 10/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33760012 33839994 33839955 33999922 34539863 37269659
37819604 37919495 37529458 36759455 35019558 33489666
32479740 32409828 32379910 32509958 32759984 33760012

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KGLD [222332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGLD 222332
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
532 PM MDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL MCCOOK 40.20N 100.62W
10/22/2010 E0.75 INCH RED WILLOW NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CJS

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KGLD [222328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 222328
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
528 PM MDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0528 PM HAIL 3 E TRENTON 40.17N 100.96W
10/22/2010 E1.00 INCH HITCHCOCK NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CJS

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KGLD [222327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 222327
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
526 PM MDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM HAIL TRENTON 40.17N 101.01W
10/22/2010 E1.00 INCH HITCHCOCK NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CJS

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KGLD [222325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 222325
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL MCCOOK 40.20N 100.62W
10/22/2010 E1.00 INCH RED WILLOW NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CJS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221959
SWODY1
SPC AC 221958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NERN CO...

...NWRN TX TO ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK...
THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE FARTHER WWD ACROSS NWRN
TX AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS MOVED NWD INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING RATHER FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AN
APPARENT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS APPROACHING W/NW TX AT THIS TIME PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR LIMITED SURFACE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF
WRN/SRN OK INTO THE EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON
THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD 1965.

...NERN CO/NWRN KS...
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...OWING TO BOTH SURFACE HEATING AND
COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO -18 C AT H5/ ATTENDANT TO CLOSED
LOW...FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 50 KT SLY MIDLEVEL
JET OVER WRN KS...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO AND/OR LANDSPOUT DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW AND AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT...THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD INTO NERN CO. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE...SUGGESTING
THIS PORTION OF THE SLIGHT TO BE CONDITIONAL AS COMPARED TO AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

..PETERS.. 10/22/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010/

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING TODAY OWING TO THE EARLY
NNEWD PROGRESSION OF STRONG MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH THE
SRN INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AWAY FROM A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDING S OF THE RED RIVER IN TX. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS MIDLEVEL FEATURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
NWD/NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS TODAY FROM CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL/ERN KS
WHERE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MAINLY HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1500 J PER KG/ MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITHIN MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT AND ALONG WRN EDGE OF
MORE PERSISTENT TSTM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF WRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN
TX PNHDL/WRN OK. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TEND TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING /ESPECIALLY
OVER THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK/...SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO.

A SEPARATE TSTM REGIME WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN OK INTO N-CNTRL/NERN TX INVOF SYNOPTIC WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY RETREATING NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER. ONGOING STRONG
TSTMS E OF FSI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TODAY WITH LOW-LEVEL
WAA SUPPORTING PREFERENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN END OF
CONVECTIVE BAND. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH A MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ BY AFTERNOON WITHIN
A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
MOREOVER...THE SRN EXTENSION OF A 35-45 KT SLY LLJ WILL RESIDE OVER
THE AREA...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITHIN
A MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD
1963.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION INTO W-CNTRL TX. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FORCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY/INTENSIFY OVER NWRN MEXICO. DESPITE
THE TIME OF DAY...THE PROXIMITY TO A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WWD-RETREATING DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
GROWTH WITHIN A MODERATELY SHEARED /40-50 KT THROUGH THE LOWEST 6
KM/ ENVIRONMENT WHERE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL EXIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 702

WWUS20 KWNS 221946
SEL2
SPC WW 221946
OKZ000-TXZ000-230300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 130 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 75 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING INVOF DRYLINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRIPLE
POINT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. SOME BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING HAS BEEN NOTED IN OPEN
WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED IN THE UPPER 50S.
HOWEVER...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LIKELY
CHARACTERIZED BY COOLER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS...YIELDING LOWER
LCL HEIGHTS. WHEN COUPLED WITH LOCALLY BACKED NEAR-SURFACE FLOW AND
40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...MEAD

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KLUB [221942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 221942
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
242 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 PM HAIL 7 W NEW HOME 33.33N 102.03W
10/21/2010 E1.50 INCH LYNN TX PUBLIC

QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN
LAKEVIEW. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000345

$$

AMP

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KLUB [221939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 221939
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
238 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM HAIL 3 N SLATON 33.48N 101.64W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH LUBBOCK TX PUBLIC

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED NORTH OF SLATON.
TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000344

$$

AMP

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KLUB [221936]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 221936
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
236 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HAIL 4 E BROWNFIELD 33.18N 102.20W
10/21/2010 E1.50 INCH TERRY TX PUBLIC

QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT TERRY
COUNTY AIRPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000343

$$

AMP

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KLUB [221934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 221934
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
233 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL WELLMAN 33.05N 102.43W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH TERRY TX PUBLIC

TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000342

$$

AMP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1965

ACUS11 KWNS 221925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221925
OKZ000-TXZ000-222100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN TX AND SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221925Z - 222100Z

IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED BY 20-12Z.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INHIBITIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 23-00Z. HOWEVER...DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING WITHIN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER...PERHAPS MOST NOTABLY NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BAROCLINIC
ZONE...FROM THE DRY LINE INTERSECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF
ABILENE...EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THIS
ACTIVITY...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE /AT OR ABOVE
1000 J PER KG/...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EXISTS...AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING.

..KERR.. 10/22/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33620070 34469948 35069771 35269616 33949558 33519611
32979804 33070020 33620070

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1964

ACUS11 KWNS 221735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221734
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-221900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...SW CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221734Z - 221900Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...INCLUDING A
VIGOROUS CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...PIVOTING AROUND ITS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERY...THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING
STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA...TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF GOODLAND.

STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST...INCREASE AND INTENSIFY WHILE
SPREADING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 20-22Z...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BECOMES
AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION IS WEAK...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY MAY
SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT HAIL POTENTIAL IN STRONGER
CELLS...SOME OF WHICH COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 10/22/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 38540241 40010228 40810118 40230009 39039973 37979994
37190001 37040091 37220123 37860144 38540241

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KLUB [221718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLUB 221718
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0344 PM HAIL 9 E PLAINS 33.19N 102.67W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH YOAKUM TX PUBLIC

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

0345 PM HAIL 9 E PLAINS 33.19N 102.67W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH YOAKUM TX PUBLIC

0405 PM HAIL TOKIO 33.18N 102.57W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH TERRY TX PUBLIC

QUARTER TO GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED IN TOKIO.

0455 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 W MEADOW 33.34N 102.31W
10/21/2010 TERRY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER WAS LOCATED 1 MILE NNE OF MEADOW.

0505 PM HAIL MEADOW 33.34N 102.21W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH TERRY TX PUBLIC

0510 PM HAIL MEADOW 33.34N 102.21W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH TERRY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0510 PM FLOOD MEADOW 33.34N 102.21W
10/21/2010 TERRY TX PUBLIC

STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN MEADOW.

0545 PM HAIL 1 SE BROWNFIELD 33.17N 102.26W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH TERRY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0545 PM HAIL BROWNFIELD 33.18N 102.27W
10/21/2010 E1.50 INCH TERRY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0559 PM HAIL LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT 73RD AND SLIDE.

0605 PM HAIL LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED AT 55TH AND UTICA.

0610 PM HAIL LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED AT 17TH AND CHICAGO.

0615 PM FLOOD LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 LUBBOCK TX TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER OVER ROADS IN THE CITY OF
LUBBOCK.

0845 PM HAIL 4 NW BROWNFIELD 33.22N 102.32W
10/21/2010 M1.75 INCH TERRY TX STORM CHASER

0848 PM HAIL 3 NW BROWNFIELD 33.21N 102.31W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH TERRY TX EMERGENCY MNGR

0900 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S NORTHFIELD 34.27N 100.60W
10/21/2010 M61 MPH MOTLEY TX MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000327 LUB1000326 LUB1000328 LUB1000338 LUB1000329
LUB1000330 LUB1000336 LUB1000331 LUB1000332 LUB1000333 LUB1000334
LUB1000337 LUB1000335 LUB1000339 LUB1000340 LUB1000341

$$

LINDLEY

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KJAN [221713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 221713
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1213 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0128 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 NNE MAYNA 31.50N 91.81W
10/20/2010 CATAHOULA LA EMERGENCY MNGR

SCATTERED TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN. THERE WERE ALSO REPORTS
OF POWER OUTAGES IN THE AREA.

0430 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 W WINNSBORO 32.16N 91.74W
10/20/2010 FRANKLIN LA EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE OLD LIMBS HAD BLOWN DOWN WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

0535 AM TSTM WND GST 1 WNW STANTON 31.62N 91.25W
10/20/2010 M53.00 MPH ADAMS MS OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0535 AM TSTM WND DMG CRANFIELD 31.54N 91.21W
10/20/2010 ADAMS MS EMERGENCY MNGR

12 TREES WERE DOWNED NEAR CRANFIELD.

0538 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 E NATCHEZ 31.55N 91.29W
10/20/2010 ADAMS MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO TREES DOWN...ONE OF THEM LARGE...ON OLD HIGHWAY 84
NUMBER 3.

0545 AM TSTM WND DMG FAYETTE 31.71N 91.06W
10/20/2010 JEFFERSON MS UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED AROUND FAYETTE FOR AROUND ONE
HOUR DUE TO BLOWN POWER LINES.

0550 AM TSTM WND DMG ROXIE 31.51N 91.07W
10/20/2010 FRANKLIN MS UTILITY COMPANY

ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WERE OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH SOME DOWN POWER LINES.

0605 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE GARDEN CITY 31.40N 91.09W
10/20/2010 FRANKLIN MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A COUPLE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN. ONE TREE BLOCKED A RD
JUST OFF HWY 33.

&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [221713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 221713
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1213 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE GARDEN CITY 31.40N 91.09W
10/20/2010 FRANKLIN MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A COUPLE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN. ONE TREE BLOCKED A RD
JUST OFF HWY 33.

&&

$$

CME

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221711
SWODY2
SPC AC 221710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY/CORN
BELT SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX......

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD WITHIN SRN BRANCH OF WRN
CONUS SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS NRN BAJA REGION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
NM/NRN MEXICO BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PHASE WITH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
DAY 1...AND EVOLVE INTO A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE COUNTRY.

A LEAD IMPULSE...CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE NRN BAJA TROUGH... IS
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM KS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...
THE SRN EXTENT OF A WEAKER/SHEARED IMPULSE TRAVERSING CA EARLY DAY 1
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NRN MEXICO INTO TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
REACH MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. EACH OF THESE IMPULSES AND
ATTENDANT JET STREAM DYNAMICS WILL BE THE FOCI FOR A BIMODAL SEVERE
EVENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD ON DAY 2 ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONT
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW...
ATTENDANT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH...WILL TRACK ENEWD FROM NWRN
KS/SWRN NEB THIS FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING NWRN IA BY 12Z SUNDAY.

...W CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO ERN OK...
TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS W CENTRAL TX REGION
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU /SEE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS
REGARDING THIS SEVERE THREAT/. GIVEN A SOMEWHAT MORE SWWD/WWD
EXTENT OF THE LATE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2 SEVERE THREAT...THE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SUGGESTING A RAMP-UP IN
SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SRN EXTENT OF UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MORNING STORMS
IN W CENTRAL TX WILL GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE IN INTENSITY/NUMBER OVER
CNTRL TX TO SRN OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON AMIDST MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND 45-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. CLUSTERS OF STORMS...INCLUDING
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE BOWS/LEWPS...WILL DEVELOP NE INTO
ERN OK BY EVENING WITH RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION TO SRN MO OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH A LESSENING SEVERE THREAT AS
STORMS ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.

...MID/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY/CORN BELT...
A STRONG SSWLY LLJ DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY
TO IA COMBINED WITH A SECOND LLJ STRENGTHENING FROM OK TO LOWER MO
VALLEY SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A NWD SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THIS REGION. MORNING WARM CONVEYOR-DERIVED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON WITH A NARROW ZONE
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE FROM THE NEB/IA BORDER SWD INTO WRN MO BY MID-AFTERNOON.

AS A NEW WARM CONVEYOR FORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TSTMS SHOULD FORM
BOTH TO THE N-E OF THE SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB/WRN IA AND SEWD INTO
NERN KS/NWRN MO. SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD SOME ACROSS SERN
NEB/FAR NERN KS TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING INTO THIS REGION
PER LATEST MODELS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW... ATTENDANT TO SURFACE
LOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SERVE TO
MAXIMIZE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH DISCRETE CELLS DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NRN MO/IA AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO AFOREMENTIONED KS
IMPULSE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. A FEW STORMS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH A
DECREASING SEVERE THREAT AFTER DARK.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
GENERAL TSTM AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED NWD SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WAA INTO THIS REGION SUPPORTING ELEVATED
TSTM ACTIVITY. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY THIS FAR N AND
WEAK SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 10/22/2010

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KABQ [221641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 221641
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1040 AM MDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0436 PM HAIL 2 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.14N 106.60W
10/21/2010 E0.75 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

SAN MATEO AND I-25.

0437 PM HAIL 3 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.15N 106.59W
10/21/2010 E0.75 INCH BERNALILLO NM CO-OP OBSERVER

ACADEMY AND BURLISON.

0442 PM HAIL 8 ENE ALBUQUERQUE 35.16N 106.50W
10/21/2010 M1.00 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

SPAIN AND TRAMWAY.

0547 PM TORNADO 16 NW BITTER LAKE WILDL 33.61N 104.63W
10/21/2010 CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0556 PM TORNADO 18 NW BITTER LAKE WILDL 33.64N 104.63W
10/21/2010 CHAVES NM PUBLIC

CONFIRMED SECOND REPORT. TORNADO STILL ON GROUND.
TORNADO PERSISTENT FOR PAST 10 MINUTES

0558 PM TORNADO 18 NW BITTER LAKE WILDL 33.66N 104.61W
10/21/2010 CHAVES NM ASOS

KROW ASOS. OBSERVER REPORTED TORNADO NW OF ROSWELL.

0603 PM TORNADO 18 NW BITTER LAKE WILDL 33.68N 104.59W
10/21/2010 CHAVES NM PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002171 ABQ1002173 ABQ1002172 ABQ1002174 ABQ1002175
ABQ1002177 ABQ1002176

$$

SHY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221619
SWODY1
SPC AC 221618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING TODAY OWING TO THE EARLY
NNEWD PROGRESSION OF STRONG MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH THE
SRN INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AWAY FROM A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDING S OF THE RED RIVER IN TX. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS MIDLEVEL FEATURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
NWD/NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS TODAY FROM CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL/ERN KS
WHERE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MAINLY HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1500 J PER KG/ MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITHIN MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT AND ALONG WRN EDGE OF
MORE PERSISTENT TSTM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF WRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN
TX PNHDL/WRN OK. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TEND TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING /ESPECIALLY
OVER THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK/...SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO.

A SEPARATE TSTM REGIME WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN OK INTO N-CNTRL/NERN TX INVOF SYNOPTIC WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY RETREATING NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER. ONGOING STRONG
TSTMS E OF FSI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TODAY WITH LOW-LEVEL
WAA SUPPORTING PREFERENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN END OF
CONVECTIVE BAND. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH A MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ BY AFTERNOON WITHIN
A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
MOREOVER...THE SRN EXTENSION OF A 35-45 KT SLY LLJ WILL RESIDE OVER
THE AREA...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITHIN
A MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD
1963.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION INTO W-CNTRL TX. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FORCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY/INTENSIFY OVER NWRN MEXICO. DESPITE
THE TIME OF DAY...THE PROXIMITY TO A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WWD-RETREATING DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
GROWTH WITHIN A MODERATELY SHEARED /40-50 KT THROUGH THE LOWEST 6
KM/ ENVIRONMENT WHERE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL EXIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

..MEAD/DIAL.. 10/22/2010

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KJAN [221535]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KJAN 221535
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1034 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0128 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 NNE MAYNA 31.50N 91.81W
10/20/2010 CATAHOULA LA EMERGENCY MNGR

SCATTERED TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN. THERE WERE ALSO REPORTS
OF POWER OUTAGES IN THE AREA.

&&

$$

ACOHEN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1963

ACUS11 KWNS 221504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221503
OKZ000-TXZ000-221700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221503Z - 221700Z

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY. THE NEED
FOR A WW IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LONGEVITY OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT IS
STILL IN QUESTION...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BUT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE
MAY MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... THROUGH
AT LEAST THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY COINCIDE WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
HEATING AND NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOWER/MID SURFACE DEW
POINTS...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND
SUBSIDENCE. NEAR AND BENEATH 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...AND
A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS...STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..KERR.. 10/22/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34469857 34909800 34779662 33759651 33489736 33649856
34469857

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KMFR [221428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 221428
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 AM PDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0726 AM HEAVY RAIN NE BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
10/22/2010 M0.75 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

8-HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT MIDNIGHT.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KLUB [221407]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 221407
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
907 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S NORTHFIELD 34.27N 100.60W
10/21/2010 M61 MPH MOTLEY TX MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000341

$$

LINDLEY

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KLUB [221319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLUB 221319
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
818 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0344 PM HAIL 9 E PLAINS 33.19N 102.67W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH YOAKUM TX PUBLIC

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

0345 PM HAIL 9 E PLAINS 33.19N 102.67W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH YOAKUM TX PUBLIC

0405 PM HAIL TOKIO 33.18N 102.57W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH TERRY TX PUBLIC

QUARTER TO GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED IN TOKIO.

0455 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 W MEADOW 33.34N 102.31W
10/21/2010 TERRY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER WAS LOCATED 1 MILE NNE OF MEADOW.

0505 PM HAIL MEADOW 33.34N 102.21W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH TERRY TX PUBLIC

0510 PM HAIL MEADOW 33.34N 102.21W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH TERRY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0510 PM FLOOD MEADOW 33.34N 102.21W
10/21/2010 TERRY TX PUBLIC

STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN MEADOW.

0545 PM HAIL 1 SE BROWNFIELD 33.17N 102.26W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH TERRY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0545 PM HAIL BROWNFIELD 33.18N 102.27W
10/21/2010 E1.50 INCH TERRY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0559 PM HAIL LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT 73RD AND SLIDE.

0605 PM HAIL LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED AT 55TH AND UTICA.

0610 PM HAIL LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED AT 17TH AND CHICAGO.

0615 PM FLOOD LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 LUBBOCK TX TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER OVER ROADS IN THE CITY OF
LUBBOCK.

0845 PM HAIL 4 NW BROWNFIELD 33.22N 102.32W
10/21/2010 M1.75 INCH TERRY TX STORM CHASER

0848 PM HAIL 3 NW BROWNFIELD 33.21N 102.31W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH TERRY TX EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000327 LUB1000326 LUB1000328 LUB1000338 LUB1000329
LUB1000330 LUB1000336 LUB1000331 LUB1000332 LUB1000333 LUB1000334
LUB1000337 LUB1000335 LUB1000339 LUB1000340

$$

LINDLEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221301
SWODY1
SPC AC 221259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN NM UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NNE INTO NRN CO THIS EVE AND
INTO WRN NEB EARLY SAT. ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP NNE ACROSS OK/KS TODAY AND INTO NEB TONIGHT AS
A SERIES OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES...LIKELY TO EVOLVE OVER AZ/NM LATER
TODAY...REACH W TX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

AT THE SFC...MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE FOR SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM W CNTRL TX ENE ACROSS
N TX INTO SE OK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SLIGHTLY N LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND EVENTUAL
CESSATION OF PRECIP TO ITS N. BUT SIGNIFICANT NWD MOVEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT. ELSEWHERE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS.

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS...
MAIN AREA OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CNTRL STATES
EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TX PANHANDLE IMPULSE.
AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES NNEWD...EXPECT THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN
ITS WAKE WILL BE LIMITED OR EVEN NEGATIVE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER
THE SRN PLNS. ELEVATED STORMS ATTENDANT TO THE IMPULSE...NOW OVER
NW TX/SW OK...SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY NEWD...WITH A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

BY EVE...COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW INTO
QSTNRY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLY APPROACH OF LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES FROM NM...MAY SUPPORT A ROUND OF SFC-BASED STORMS OVER
N CNTRL TX AND S CNTRL OK...WHERE SBCAPE COULD REACH 1000 J/KG.
AND...IF SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR ON WRN EDGE OF STRATUS
DECK...CONVERGENCE ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS MAY SUPPORT A
COUPLE LATE DAY/EARLY EVE STORMS IN THE NERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK/SW
KS. SFC-BASED STORMS ALSO MAY FORM AROUND THE SAME TIME IN AREA OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SFC LOW/TROUGHS IN ERN CO/WRN KS
AND POSSIBLY SW NEB.

35-40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THE TX/OK
REGION...IF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DO INDEED FORM. THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES
GIVEN BACKED LOW LVL FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE. COLDER AIR ALOFT
/MINUS 16 C AT 500 MB/...PROXIMITY OF UPR IMPULSE...AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT MAY COMPENSATE FOR SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR TO YIELD A
SIMILAR SVR THREAT IN THE WRN KS/ERN CO AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF SFC HEATING.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...A SEPARATE BAND OF SUSTAINED STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG TRAILING SW PART OF TX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS
AZ/NM UPR DISTURBANCES ENHANCE ASCENT ON WRN EDGE OF INCREASING PW
/AOA 1.25 INCHES/. WHILE TIME OF DAY WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR...COOL THERMAL PROFILES AND 40-50 KT SWLY DEEP SHEAR COULD
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH SVR WIND/HAIL.

..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/22/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220841
SWOD48
SPC AC 220840

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
POTENT JET STREAK ARRIVING IN THE PACIFIC NW LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE SE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDING IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING
ENE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE AND WHILE
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY EXIST IN THE MIDWEST...A MORE
CONFIDENT SVR OUTLOOK IS NOT JUSTIFIED.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIG
SEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ALONG SRN FRINGE OF
THE FORMER SYSTEM BY WED AFTN-THU. LINGERING SRN PLAINS MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE AND THERE COULD BE
SOME SVR POTENTIAL IN THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS REGION BY MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST
GFS/ECMWF/GEFS PRECLUDE AN OUTLOOK AT THE MOMENT.

..RACY.. 10/22/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1962

ACUS11 KWNS 220751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220751 COR
OKZ000-TXZ000-221015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION...SERN TX
PANHANDLE...NW TX...EXTREME SWRN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 220751Z - 221015Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

TSTM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THIS
REGION...THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS. ISOLATED/SPORADIC LARGE
HAIL WILL BE MAIN SVR CONCERN...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RATES 1-2
INCHES/HOUR ALSO ARE POSSIBLE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
EXTENDING SWWD FROM CENTRAL OK ACROSS THROCKMORTON/SCURRY/NRN
ANDREWS COUNTIES TX...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY W SNK. SHALLOW BUT
VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST N OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
SFC TEMPS 50S F BENEATH MOST OF CONVECTION MITIGATING STRENGTH OF
DOWNDRAFT GUSTS. BELT OF ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- SHIFTING
NEWD AROUND SERN RIM OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- IS SUPPORTING THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW-LEVEL
WAA/MOIST ADVECTION ALSO IS OCCURRING ATOP COLD AIR MASS...ALONG WRN
RIM OF BROAD/35-40 KT LLJ. LLJ SHOULD VEER/WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH
12Z...BUT STILL SUPPORT REGIME OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO
LFC. COMBINED RESULT WILL BE ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG BASED
ON MODIFIED RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS. 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES...DERIVED FROM THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VWP
DATA...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR OCNL ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION
WITH NEWER MCS OR MRGL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE
TSTMS AWAY FROM MAIN LINE.

..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 33629999 33170053 32870231 33000301 33690281 34700163
35250085 35339999 34939976 34579971 34049979 33629999

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1962

ACUS11 KWNS 220742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220741
OKZ000-TXZ000-221015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION...SERN TX
PANHANDLE...NW TX...EXTREME SWRN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 220741Z - 221015Z

TSTM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THIS
REGION...THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS. ISOLATED/SPORADIC LARGE
HAIL WILL BE MAIN SVR CONCERN...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RATES 1-2
INCHES/HOUR ALSO ARE POSSIBLE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
EXTENDING SWWD FROM CENTRAL OK ACROSS THROCKMORTON/SCURRY/NRN ANDRES
COUNTIES TX...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY W SNK. SHALLOW BUT VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST N OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SFC
TEMPS 50S F BENEATH MOST OF CONVECTION MITIGATING STRENGTH OF
DOWNDRAFT GUSTS. BELT OF ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- SHIFTING
NEWD AROUND SERN RIM OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- IS SUPPORTING THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW-LEVEL
WAA/MOIST ADVECTION ALSO IS OCCURRING ATOP COLD AIR MASS...ALONG WRN
RIM OF BROAD/35-40 KT LLJ. LLJ SHOULD VEER/WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH
12Z...BUT STILL SUPPORT REGIME OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO
LFC. COMBINED RESULT WILL BE ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG BASED
ON MODIFIED RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS. 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES...DERIVED FROM THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VWP
DATA...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR OCNL ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION
WITH NEWER MCS OR MRGL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE
TSTMS AWAY FROM MAIN LINE.

..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 33629999 33170053 32870231 33000301 33690281 34700163
35250085 35339999 34939976 34579971 34049979 33629999

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