SWOD48
SPC AC 220840
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
POTENT JET STREAK ARRIVING IN THE PACIFIC NW LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE SE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDING IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING
ENE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE AND WHILE
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY EXIST IN THE MIDWEST...A MORE
CONFIDENT SVR OUTLOOK IS NOT JUSTIFIED.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIG
SEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ALONG SRN FRINGE OF
THE FORMER SYSTEM BY WED AFTN-THU. LINGERING SRN PLAINS MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE AND THERE COULD BE
SOME SVR POTENTIAL IN THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS REGION BY MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST
GFS/ECMWF/GEFS PRECLUDE AN OUTLOOK AT THE MOMENT.
..RACY.. 10/22/2010
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