SWODY1
SPC AC 040036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST WED MAR 03 2010
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PACIFIC COAST INTO NRN GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
A COLD MID LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REGION IS
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY THAT IS SUPPORTING ONGOING
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
SPARSE IN COVERAGE AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO...WITH CONVECTION OVER
MOST AREAS WEAKENING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING BY 02-03Z.
AN EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY THROUGH
MERCED/FRESNO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WHERE
STRONG MID-LEVEL LIFT AND COOLING COULD STILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY AN INLAND PROPAGATING 90+ KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET
STREAK...WHICH MAY MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. GRADUALLY... THE PLUME OF HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND .75 INCHES/ EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM AREAS EVEN WEST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A WEST NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
AND...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NEGLIGIBLE OVERNIGHT.
..KERR.. 03/04/2010
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