SWODY1
SPC AC 031929
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST WED MAR 03 2010
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS VALID WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NECESSARY.
..DIAL/ROGERS.. 03/03/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST WED MAR 03 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SINK SEWD
ACROSS CA AND INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN BY THU MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST WILL WEAKEN WITH
TIME...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS OVER NRN NV. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL
CA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT INTO CNTRL NV LATE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CONUS...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.
...NRN AND CNTRL CA...
A BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM MRY TO BLU THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD
WITH TIME...ALLOWING SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF NRN AND
CNTRL CA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AS
THE UPPER LOW CENTER APPROACHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200-400
J/KG MUCAPE BY PEAK HEATING WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
-30 C. HEATING...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS...BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY BACKED ACROSS
THE CNTRL VALLEYS...BUT MAGNITUDES WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH LITTLE
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/SHEAR. GIVEN STEEPENING LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG UPPER VORTICITY CENTER...A FUNNEL
CLOUD CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL KEEP TORNADO PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 2 PERCENT.
...NRN NV...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NRN NV THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM WRN INTO CNTRL NV BY 00Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT AS
WELL AS COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...VERY SMALL HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
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