NWUS53 KLSX 252245
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0540 PM TORNADO 4 N HOYLETON 38.50N 89.27W
09/25/2012 CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
TORNADO PERIODICALLY TOUCHING DOWN. LOOKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
$$
TILLY
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
KLSX [252243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252243
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
543 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0542 PM WALL CLOUD OKAWVILLE 38.43N 89.55W
09/25/2012 WASHINGTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
ROTATING WALL CLOUD ALONG I-64 NEAR MILE MARKER 41 NEAR
OKAWVILLE.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
543 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0542 PM WALL CLOUD OKAWVILLE 38.43N 89.55W
09/25/2012 WASHINGTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
ROTATING WALL CLOUD ALONG I-64 NEAR MILE MARKER 41 NEAR
OKAWVILLE.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KEAX [252242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KEAX 252242
LSREAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
542 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0539 PM HAIL RICH HILL 38.10N 94.36W
09/25/2012 E0.75 INCH BATES MO EMERGENCY MNGR
DIME SIZE HAIL JUST STARTED TO FALL ON WEST SIDE OF RICH
HILL
&&
$$
MJ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSREAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
542 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0539 PM HAIL RICH HILL 38.10N 94.36W
09/25/2012 E0.75 INCH BATES MO EMERGENCY MNGR
DIME SIZE HAIL JUST STARTED TO FALL ON WEST SIDE OF RICH
HILL
&&
$$
MJ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252242
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
542 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0541 PM HAIL RUSSELLVILLE 38.51N 92.44W
09/25/2012 M0.25 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
542 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0541 PM HAIL RUSSELLVILLE 38.51N 92.44W
09/25/2012 M0.25 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252241
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
541 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0541 PM HAIL ST. ANN 38.73N 90.39W
09/25/2012 M0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KANOFSKY
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
541 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0541 PM HAIL ST. ANN 38.73N 90.39W
09/25/2012 M0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KANOFSKY
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252239
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
539 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0539 PM HAIL ST. ANN 38.73N 90.39W
09/25/2012 M0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO EMERGENCY MNGR
AT WOODSON AND ROCK RD
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
539 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0539 PM HAIL ST. ANN 38.73N 90.39W
09/25/2012 M0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO EMERGENCY MNGR
AT WOODSON AND ROCK RD
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252238
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0536 PM TORNADO ADDIEVILLE 38.39N 89.49W
09/25/2012 WASHINGTON IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
TORNADO REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPUTIES NEAR ADDIEVILLE
WITH A SEMI TRAILER BLOWN OVER ON I-64 AT MILEPOST 40.5.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0536 PM TORNADO ADDIEVILLE 38.39N 89.49W
09/25/2012 WASHINGTON IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
TORNADO REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPUTIES NEAR ADDIEVILLE
WITH A SEMI TRAILER BLOWN OVER ON I-64 AT MILEPOST 40.5.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252238
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0537 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 S HOFFMAN 38.47N 89.26W
09/25/2012 WASHINGTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0537 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 S HOFFMAN 38.47N 89.26W
09/25/2012 WASHINGTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252236
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
535 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0534 PM HAIL BRIDGETON 38.77N 90.43W
09/25/2012 M0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER
AT I-70 AND ROCK RD
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
535 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0534 PM HAIL BRIDGETON 38.77N 90.43W
09/25/2012 M0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER
AT I-70 AND ROCK RD
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252228
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
528 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0527 PM HAIL ALBERS 38.54N 89.62W
09/25/2012 E1.00 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN ALBERS.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
528 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0527 PM HAIL ALBERS 38.54N 89.62W
09/25/2012 E1.00 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN ALBERS.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KEAX [252223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KEAX 252223
LSREAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
523 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0453 PM HAIL PRESCOTT 38.06N 94.70W
09/25/2012 E1.00 INCH LINN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
MJ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSREAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
523 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0453 PM HAIL PRESCOTT 38.06N 94.70W
09/25/2012 E1.00 INCH LINN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
MJ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252221
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
521 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0519 PM TORNADO DAMIANSVILLE 38.51N 89.62W
09/25/2012 CLINTON IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR DAMIANSVILLE REPORTED BY ST.
LOUIS WEATHER CHASE TEAM.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
521 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0519 PM TORNADO DAMIANSVILLE 38.51N 89.62W
09/25/2012 CLINTON IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR DAMIANSVILLE REPORTED BY ST.
LOUIS WEATHER CHASE TEAM.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252212
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
512 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0511 PM HAIL AVISTON 38.61N 89.61W
09/25/2012 M2.50 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
DAMAGING SHINGLES
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
512 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0511 PM HAIL AVISTON 38.61N 89.61W
09/25/2012 M2.50 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
DAMAGING SHINGLES
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252212
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
512 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM HAIL 4 SE NEW BADEN 38.50N 89.65W
09/25/2012 E1.75 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND 4 SE OF NEW
BADEN IL.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
512 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM HAIL 4 SE NEW BADEN 38.50N 89.65W
09/25/2012 E1.75 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND 4 SE OF NEW
BADEN IL.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252209
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
509 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0509 PM HAIL MASCOUTAH 38.51N 89.81W
09/25/2012 M1.50 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
509 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0509 PM HAIL MASCOUTAH 38.51N 89.81W
09/25/2012 M1.50 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252209
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
509 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0507 PM HAIL AVISTON 38.61N 89.61W
09/25/2012 E1.50 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT
AVISTON.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
509 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0507 PM HAIL AVISTON 38.61N 89.61W
09/25/2012 E1.50 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT
AVISTON.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252207
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
507 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0502 PM HAIL ST. PETERS 38.78N 90.61W
09/25/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER
AT MID RIVERS MALL DRIVE AND WILLOTT ROAD...PEA SIZE
HAIL.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
507 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0502 PM HAIL ST. PETERS 38.78N 90.61W
09/25/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER
AT MID RIVERS MALL DRIVE AND WILLOTT ROAD...PEA SIZE
HAIL.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252207
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
507 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0506 PM HAIL MASCOUTAH 38.51N 89.81W
09/25/2012 M0.88 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
507 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0506 PM HAIL MASCOUTAH 38.51N 89.81W
09/25/2012 M0.88 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 648
WWUS20 KWNS 252205
SEL8
SPC WW 252205
ILZ000-INZ000-MOZ000-260400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 505 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
EVANSVILLE INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
ALONG A SURFACE FRONT FROM E CENTRAL IL EWD ACROSS SRN IL/SW INDIANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEED OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH MAY LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.
...THOMPSON
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SEL8
SPC WW 252205
ILZ000-INZ000-MOZ000-260400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 505 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
EVANSVILLE INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
ALONG A SURFACE FRONT FROM E CENTRAL IL EWD ACROSS SRN IL/SW INDIANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEED OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH MAY LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.
...THOMPSON
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252201
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
501 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0457 PM HAIL O'FALLON 38.78N 90.71W
09/25/2012 E0.70 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER
AT I-70 AND TR HUGHES BLVD...UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL WITH
ALMOST NO WIND.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
501 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0457 PM HAIL O'FALLON 38.78N 90.71W
09/25/2012 E0.70 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER
AT I-70 AND TR HUGHES BLVD...UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL WITH
ALMOST NO WIND.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252158
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
458 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0456 PM HAIL TRENTON 38.61N 89.68W
09/25/2012 E1.50 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
JUST BELOW GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
458 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0456 PM HAIL TRENTON 38.61N 89.68W
09/25/2012 E1.50 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
JUST BELOW GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.
&&
$$
FUCHS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252156
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
456 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0455 PM HAIL WENTZVILLE 38.81N 90.86W
09/25/2012 M1.00 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER
PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
456 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0455 PM HAIL WENTZVILLE 38.81N 90.86W
09/25/2012 M1.00 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER
PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252155
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
455 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0455 PM HAIL O'FALLON 38.78N 90.71W
09/25/2012 M0.70 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
455 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0455 PM HAIL O'FALLON 38.78N 90.71W
09/25/2012 M0.70 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252152
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
452 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0451 PM HAIL LAKE ST. LOUIS 38.79N 90.78W
09/25/2012 M0.50 INCH ST. CHARLES MO NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
452 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0451 PM HAIL LAKE ST. LOUIS 38.79N 90.78W
09/25/2012 M0.50 INCH ST. CHARLES MO NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252151
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
451 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0450 PM HAIL NEW BADEN 38.54N 89.70W
09/25/2012 M1.00 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
A FEW STONES AT 1.00 INCH DIAMETER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
451 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0450 PM HAIL NEW BADEN 38.54N 89.70W
09/25/2012 M1.00 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
A FEW STONES AT 1.00 INCH DIAMETER
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252150
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 PM HAIL NEW BADEN 38.54N 89.70W
09/25/2012 M0.75 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 PM HAIL NEW BADEN 38.54N 89.70W
09/25/2012 M0.75 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1986
ACUS11 KWNS 252147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252147
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-252315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...S-CNTRL/SERN KS...W-CNTRL/SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252147Z - 252315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM NWRN OK E-NEWD ACROSS SERN KS INTO
W-CNTRL/SWRN MO. STRONG TO SVR MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSING
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 21Z SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RESIDING INVOF THE OK PANHANDLE...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
E-NEWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO W-CNTRL MO. SURFACE HEATING S OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 80S AND 90S...HAS AIDED IN
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH CINH FALLING TO NEAR
ZERO. IN ADDITION...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE MLCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS OF 2143Z...WITH GREATER STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY EVENING. MODEST MIDLEVEL
SWLYS OVERSPREADING LOW-LEVEL S-SWLY FLOW IS YIELDING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SVR
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 09/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36649899 37199901 38009710 38709350 38029210 36569343
36139782 36649899
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252147
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-252315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...S-CNTRL/SERN KS...W-CNTRL/SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252147Z - 252315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM NWRN OK E-NEWD ACROSS SERN KS INTO
W-CNTRL/SWRN MO. STRONG TO SVR MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSING
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 21Z SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RESIDING INVOF THE OK PANHANDLE...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
E-NEWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO W-CNTRL MO. SURFACE HEATING S OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 80S AND 90S...HAS AIDED IN
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH CINH FALLING TO NEAR
ZERO. IN ADDITION...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE MLCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS OF 2143Z...WITH GREATER STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY EVENING. MODEST MIDLEVEL
SWLYS OVERSPREADING LOW-LEVEL S-SWLY FLOW IS YIELDING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SVR
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 09/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36649899 37199901 38009710 38709350 38029210 36569343
36139782 36649899
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252134
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
434 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0433 PM HAIL BELLEVILLE 38.53N 90.00W
09/25/2012 M0.75 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER
AT SCOFF AFB BEGAN ONE MINUTE AGO
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
434 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0433 PM HAIL BELLEVILLE 38.53N 90.00W
09/25/2012 M0.75 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER
AT SCOFF AFB BEGAN ONE MINUTE AGO
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252129
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
429 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0427 PM HAIL POTOSI 37.94N 90.78W
09/25/2012 M1.00 INCH WASHINGTON MO TRAINED SPOTTER
AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 21 AND COUNTY RD E
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
429 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0427 PM HAIL POTOSI 37.94N 90.78W
09/25/2012 M1.00 INCH WASHINGTON MO TRAINED SPOTTER
AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 21 AND COUNTY RD E
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252126
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0424 PM HAIL POTOSI 37.94N 90.78W
09/25/2012 E1.00 INCH WASHINGTON MO TRAINED SPOTTER
ON THE SW CORNER OF POTOSI
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0424 PM HAIL POTOSI 37.94N 90.78W
09/25/2012 E1.00 INCH WASHINGTON MO TRAINED SPOTTER
ON THE SW CORNER OF POTOSI
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252122
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
422 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0421 PM HAIL 4 SW POTOSI 37.90N 90.83W
09/25/2012 M0.88 INCH WASHINGTON MO CO-OP OBSERVER
ALONG HWY P
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
422 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0421 PM HAIL 4 SW POTOSI 37.90N 90.83W
09/25/2012 M0.88 INCH WASHINGTON MO CO-OP OBSERVER
ALONG HWY P
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KGJT [252120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KGJT 252120
LSRGJT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
320 PM MDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0255 PM TSTM WND GST PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.27N 107.02W
09/25/2012 M50 MPH ARCHULETA CO AWOS
PEAK THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST AT PAGOSA SPRINGS AIRPORT.
&&
EVENT NUMBER GJT1200499
$$
MALEKSA
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRGJT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
320 PM MDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0255 PM TSTM WND GST PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.27N 107.02W
09/25/2012 M50 MPH ARCHULETA CO AWOS
PEAK THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST AT PAGOSA SPRINGS AIRPORT.
&&
EVENT NUMBER GJT1200499
$$
MALEKSA
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KLSX [252115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 252115
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
415 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0413 PM HAIL O'FALLON 38.78N 90.71W
09/25/2012 M0.25 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER
ALONG HWY K
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
415 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0413 PM HAIL O'FALLON 38.78N 90.71W
09/25/2012 M0.25 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER
ALONG HWY K
&&
$$
KARLZ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1985
ACUS11 KWNS 252022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252022
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...S-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252022Z - 252115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH EWD MOTION INTO WRN OK.
SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW...ESPECIALLY
OVER WRN OK AND S-CNTRL KS.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW CENTERED ACROSS FAR
SWRN KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND IN
THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS THE
SHARPENING AND EWD PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE HAVE BEEN AIDED BY A
SPEED MAX...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVING ACROSS NRN NM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CU FIELD ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED JUST E OF PPA. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /GREATER THAN 8 DEG C PER KM/ COMBINED WITH
AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 15OO J/KG ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE THE BEST INSTABILITY...EXISTS FARTHER E
OVER WRN/CNTRL OK.
EARLY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND UNORGANIZED...OWING
PRIMARILY TO THE WEAK BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER...LARGE
TEMPERATURES-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE STRONG COLD POOL
GENERATION WITH RESULTANT UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING ALONG THE
COLD POOL AS IT MOVES E. INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX AND LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND
ORGANIZATION AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO WRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...WIND GUSTS. HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BUT THE WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT IT/S SIZE
AND OCCURRENCE. INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR BOTH SEVERE HAIL/WIND AS THE ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WRN OK. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
..MOSIER/GUYER/MEAD.. 09/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34060041 34270107 34890099 35480086 36480044 37010010
37319967 37419908 37449824 37339790 36849772 36109820
35729838 35309852 34989862 34699874 34459889 34249916
34099959 34060041
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252022
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...S-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252022Z - 252115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH EWD MOTION INTO WRN OK.
SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW...ESPECIALLY
OVER WRN OK AND S-CNTRL KS.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW CENTERED ACROSS FAR
SWRN KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND IN
THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS THE
SHARPENING AND EWD PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE HAVE BEEN AIDED BY A
SPEED MAX...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVING ACROSS NRN NM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CU FIELD ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED JUST E OF PPA. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /GREATER THAN 8 DEG C PER KM/ COMBINED WITH
AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 15OO J/KG ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE THE BEST INSTABILITY...EXISTS FARTHER E
OVER WRN/CNTRL OK.
EARLY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND UNORGANIZED...OWING
PRIMARILY TO THE WEAK BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER...LARGE
TEMPERATURES-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE STRONG COLD POOL
GENERATION WITH RESULTANT UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING ALONG THE
COLD POOL AS IT MOVES E. INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX AND LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND
ORGANIZATION AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO WRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...WIND GUSTS. HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BUT THE WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT IT/S SIZE
AND OCCURRENCE. INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR BOTH SEVERE HAIL/WIND AS THE ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WRN OK. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
..MOSIER/GUYER/MEAD.. 09/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34060041 34270107 34890099 35480086 36480044 37010010
37319967 37419908 37449824 37339790 36849772 36109820
35729838 35309852 34989862 34699874 34459889 34249916
34099959 34060041
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 252011
SWODY3
SPC AC 252009
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
AMENDED TO ADD FCST GEN TSTM LINES FOR SOFTWARE/COMMS CHECK
--- UPDATE ---
GEN TSTM LINES ARE BEING ADDED TO EXISTING OUTLOOK IN ORDER TO CHECK
SYSTEMS IN ADVANCE OF OPERATIONAL DAY-3 TSTM OUTLOOKS THAT BEGIN
TONIGHT. NO CHANGE IS MADE ATTM TO SVR PROBABILITIES OR PREVIOUS
REASONING...WHICH FOLLOWS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE U.S.
THIS PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER FLOW ALOFT CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ERN CANADA TROUGHING.
A WEAKENING/NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS OK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A ZONE OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KS/NRN OK
REGION AND INTO THE FRONT RANGE WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT HERE -- AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY3
SPC AC 252009
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
AMENDED TO ADD FCST GEN TSTM LINES FOR SOFTWARE/COMMS CHECK
--- UPDATE ---
GEN TSTM LINES ARE BEING ADDED TO EXISTING OUTLOOK IN ORDER TO CHECK
SYSTEMS IN ADVANCE OF OPERATIONAL DAY-3 TSTM OUTLOOKS THAT BEGIN
TONIGHT. NO CHANGE IS MADE ATTM TO SVR PROBABILITIES OR PREVIOUS
REASONING...WHICH FOLLOWS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE U.S.
THIS PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER FLOW ALOFT CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ERN CANADA TROUGHING.
A WEAKENING/NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS OK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A ZONE OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KS/NRN OK
REGION AND INTO THE FRONT RANGE WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT HERE -- AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 251953
SWODY1
SPC AC 251951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER OH
VALLEY...
--- UPDATES ---
NERN PORTION OF CATEGORICAL RISK LINE AND RELATED PROBABILITIES ARE
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S ACROSS MO AND EWD OVER PORTIONS SRN IL/INDIANA.
THIS IS IN DEFERENCE TO OBSERVATIONAL/CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE EACH SUGGESTING EWD SHIFT OF FAVORABLE SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND OUTFLOW
POOL...IN SUPPORT OF SVR POTENTIAL. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALSO HAS
BEEN NOTED OVER ERN TX PANHANDLE...FOR WHICH MORE NEAR-TERM DETAILS
WILL BE FOUND IN FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MINOR/PERIPHERAL CHANGES ARE MADE TO GEN THUNDER
LINES TO REFLECT ONGOING/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND SATELLITE
TRENDS IN CONVECTION.
..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO GREAT PLAINS WITH GENERALLY A
CONFLUENT...WEAKLY CYCLONIC PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE
NATION. WITHIN THIS BROAD-SCALE PATTERN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY OVER THE OH VALLEY WHILE
FARTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SERN CO/NERN NM
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM A WEAK CYCLONE OVER CNTRL WI SWWD THROUGH
E-CNTRL KS/W-CNTRL MO INTO THE OK/NRN TX PNHDLS AND NERN NM. A
NUMBER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE ANALYZED ON THIS
BOUNDARY...NEAR MKC...AVK...AND GUY. A WARM FRONT INTERSECTED THE
FORMER BOUNDARY AT THE MKC SURFACE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE STRETCHING
SEWD THROUGH CNTRL INTO SERN MO AND THEN MORE SWD ALONG THE MS
RIVER. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL
MCS ONGOING ACROSS KY EXTENDED FROM NEAR OR JUST N OF STL ESEWD INTO
CNTRL KY. THESE THREE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO
SERVE AS LOCI FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SGF/LZK/BNA SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EML WHICH
HAS BEEN ADVECTED EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WITHIN SUBTROPICAL
MIDLEVEL AIR STREAM. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OVERLAY A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ALONG A
SWLY LLJ. THESE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ONGOING MCS
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1500-3000 J/KG.
LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND WEAK
DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS TO
FOSTER A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENED...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT OWING
TO THE CONFLUENT LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL YIELD MODEST DEEP-LAYER
FLOW FIELDS WITH HODOGRAPHS EXHIBITING VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST...THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO.
THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
STABILIZES.
...WRN OK INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE WRN EXTENSION OF AN EML MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION IS
CLEARLY OBSERVED BY 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WHERE 700-500-MB LAPSE
RATES RANGED FROM 7.5-9.0 C/KM. AND WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OVER THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL YIELD WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EWD FROM SERN
CO/NERN NM ALONG WITH A WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OBSERVED OVER
CNTRL KS AS OF LATE MORNING WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AND DEVELOPING DRYLINE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN OK. WHILE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. LESS THAN 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM/...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS
STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AT THE TERMINUS OF A DEVELOPING
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY1
SPC AC 251951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER OH
VALLEY...
--- UPDATES ---
NERN PORTION OF CATEGORICAL RISK LINE AND RELATED PROBABILITIES ARE
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S ACROSS MO AND EWD OVER PORTIONS SRN IL/INDIANA.
THIS IS IN DEFERENCE TO OBSERVATIONAL/CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE EACH SUGGESTING EWD SHIFT OF FAVORABLE SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND OUTFLOW
POOL...IN SUPPORT OF SVR POTENTIAL. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALSO HAS
BEEN NOTED OVER ERN TX PANHANDLE...FOR WHICH MORE NEAR-TERM DETAILS
WILL BE FOUND IN FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MINOR/PERIPHERAL CHANGES ARE MADE TO GEN THUNDER
LINES TO REFLECT ONGOING/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND SATELLITE
TRENDS IN CONVECTION.
..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO GREAT PLAINS WITH GENERALLY A
CONFLUENT...WEAKLY CYCLONIC PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE
NATION. WITHIN THIS BROAD-SCALE PATTERN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY OVER THE OH VALLEY WHILE
FARTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SERN CO/NERN NM
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM A WEAK CYCLONE OVER CNTRL WI SWWD THROUGH
E-CNTRL KS/W-CNTRL MO INTO THE OK/NRN TX PNHDLS AND NERN NM. A
NUMBER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE ANALYZED ON THIS
BOUNDARY...NEAR MKC...AVK...AND GUY. A WARM FRONT INTERSECTED THE
FORMER BOUNDARY AT THE MKC SURFACE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE STRETCHING
SEWD THROUGH CNTRL INTO SERN MO AND THEN MORE SWD ALONG THE MS
RIVER. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL
MCS ONGOING ACROSS KY EXTENDED FROM NEAR OR JUST N OF STL ESEWD INTO
CNTRL KY. THESE THREE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO
SERVE AS LOCI FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SGF/LZK/BNA SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EML WHICH
HAS BEEN ADVECTED EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WITHIN SUBTROPICAL
MIDLEVEL AIR STREAM. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OVERLAY A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ALONG A
SWLY LLJ. THESE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ONGOING MCS
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1500-3000 J/KG.
LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND WEAK
DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS TO
FOSTER A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENED...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT OWING
TO THE CONFLUENT LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL YIELD MODEST DEEP-LAYER
FLOW FIELDS WITH HODOGRAPHS EXHIBITING VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST...THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO.
THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
STABILIZES.
...WRN OK INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE WRN EXTENSION OF AN EML MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION IS
CLEARLY OBSERVED BY 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WHERE 700-500-MB LAPSE
RATES RANGED FROM 7.5-9.0 C/KM. AND WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OVER THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL YIELD WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EWD FROM SERN
CO/NERN NM ALONG WITH A WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OBSERVED OVER
CNTRL KS AS OF LATE MORNING WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AND DEVELOPING DRYLINE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN OK. WHILE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. LESS THAN 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM/...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS
STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AT THE TERMINUS OF A DEVELOPING
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KPUB [251841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPUB 251841
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1241 PM MDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM HEAVY RAIN CASCADE 38.90N 104.97W
09/25/2012 M0.75 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER
THE BRUNT OF THIS RAIN FELL WEST OF THE WALDO CANYON BURN
SCAR. PEA SIZED HAIL FELL WITH THE RAIN.
&&
$$
MN
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1241 PM MDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM HEAVY RAIN CASCADE 38.90N 104.97W
09/25/2012 M0.75 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER
THE BRUNT OF THIS RAIN FELL WEST OF THE WALDO CANYON BURN
SCAR. PEA SIZED HAIL FELL WITH THE RAIN.
&&
$$
MN
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1984
ACUS11 KWNS 251759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251759
ILZ000-MOZ000-251900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251759Z - 251900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MO AS OF 17Z. EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...A WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE MS RIVER
WHILE THE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECAY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL. SOUTH OF ONGOING /CURRENTLY
ELEVATED/ SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 IN MO/SOUTH-CENTRAL
IL...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY /SINCE 1630Z/ IS INDICATIVE OF
AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MO WHERE AMPLE INSOLATION OTHERWISE
CONTINUES TO OCCUR. BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS AND
MODEL-BASED SOUNDINGS...THIS IS WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
CONTINUES TO STEADILY ERODE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH/EXCEED
80 F THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J PER KG/...AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE/SPEED
MAX...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS STORMS MATURE...MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS /40 KT 0-6 KM PER RECENT ST LOUIS WSR-88D VWP/
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR
THE WARM FRONT.
..GUYER/MEAD.. 09/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 37529251 38069267 38469227 39049128 39389008 39348895
39128843 38938792 38558790 38098816 37508876 37649074
37469222 37529251
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251759
ILZ000-MOZ000-251900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251759Z - 251900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MO AS OF 17Z. EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...A WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE MS RIVER
WHILE THE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECAY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL. SOUTH OF ONGOING /CURRENTLY
ELEVATED/ SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 IN MO/SOUTH-CENTRAL
IL...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY /SINCE 1630Z/ IS INDICATIVE OF
AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MO WHERE AMPLE INSOLATION OTHERWISE
CONTINUES TO OCCUR. BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS AND
MODEL-BASED SOUNDINGS...THIS IS WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
CONTINUES TO STEADILY ERODE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH/EXCEED
80 F THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J PER KG/...AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE/SPEED
MAX...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS STORMS MATURE...MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS /40 KT 0-6 KM PER RECENT ST LOUIS WSR-88D VWP/
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR
THE WARM FRONT.
..GUYER/MEAD.. 09/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 37529251 38069267 38469227 39049128 39389008 39348895
39128843 38938792 38558790 38098816 37508876 37649074
37469222 37529251
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 251719
SWODY2
SPC AC 251717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CHAOTIC SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER CONUS THROUGH DAY-2...S
OF TRAIN OF HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES FROM AK TO ERN CANADA.
INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED SPEED MAX -- NOW EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NWRN ONT AND ERN AB -- IS FCST TO
PIVOT CYCLONICALLY ACROSS LS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER
DAY-1...REACHING ERN LOWER MI AND NRN WI BY 26/12Z. PERTURBATION
THEN SHOULD TURN EWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...MOVING ACROSS SERN ONT
AROUND 27/00Z AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 27/12Z. MEANWHILE...MID-UPPER
CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER UT SHOULD DRIFT EWD TO WRN CO BY START OF
PERIOD. GRADUAL FILLING OF LOW WILL PERSIST INTO DAY-2 AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY CUT OFF FROM NRN-STREAM FLOW BELT. AS SUCH...FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS WRN CO POSITION UNTIL DAY-3...WHILE
BECOMING OPEN-WAVE TROUGH.
SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM NRN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS IA TO SWRN
KS -- IS FCST TO MOVE TO CENTRAL/ERN NY...CENTRAL/SRN OH...SRN
MO...NRN/WRN OK AND NRN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE BY 27/00Z. SEGMENT OF
FRONT W OF MS RIVER SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY DURING LATTER HALF
OF PERIOD...PERTURBED MAINLY BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...DIFFUSE DRYLINE SHOULD SET UP FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN TX
PANHANDLE SSWWD ACROSS LOWER PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN REGION OF W TX AND
EXTREME SERN NM. THIS DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WWD ACROSS SRN HIGH
PLAINS DURING LOCAL EVENING HOURS.
...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO OZARKS AND LOWER OH VALLEY...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON
INVOF FRONT...NRN SEGMENT OF DRYLINE...AND OVER SERN CO/NERN NM
AREA...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. THOUGH WELL-REMOVED FROM
STRONGEST MID-UPPER WINDS...AT LEAST MRGL/CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT
EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THESE TSTMS MAY AGGREGATE INTO
MULTICELLULAR MCS DURING EVENING WITH COLD-POOL DRIVEN FORWARD
PROPAGATION. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FACTORS MOST SUITABLE FOR SUCH
EVOLUTION REMAIN TOO UNCERTAIN TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
UNCONDITIONAL SVR THREAT ATTM.
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED IN AND N OF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE...WHERE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WWD
AND UPSLOPE OVER PORTIONS SWRN KS...SERN CO AND POSTFRONTAL
PANHANDLES. STRONGLY HEATED...WELL-MIXED AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND S OF FRONT OVER OK AND TX PANHANDLE...IN SUPPORT
OF STG/ISOLATED SVR GUSTS. STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONGER DEEP SHEAR N OF FRONT...LATTER BEING AIDED BY ELY FLOW
COMPONENT...ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM ORGANIZATION AND SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL.
...INLAND MID-ATLC AND ADJOINING APPALACHIANS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY PRIMARILY SHOULD BE
LOW-TOPPED IN NATURE GIVEN PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES IN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT EVIDENT IN FCST SOUNDINGS. WHEN JUXTAPOSED ABOVE PREFRONTAL
SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY LOW-MID 60S F OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS...MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG RESULTS IN MUCH OF THIS
CORRIDOR. NONETHELESS...EXPECT STRENGTHENING OF BOTH WINDS ALOFT
AND DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR...AS MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS.
THIS SUPPORTS MRGL UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES ATTM...PRIMARILY IN
FORM OF FOR DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS.
RELATIVE MIN IN SVR PROBABILITIES MAY EXIST BETWEEN THIS CORRIDOR
AND WRN AREA...MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE OH VALLEY
WHERE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT APPEAR RELATIVELY WEAK
IN PROGS. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO SOON TO CARVE OUT SPECIFIC AREA WHERE
TSTMS NEAR FRONT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SFC-BASED YET FAIL TO OFFER AT
LEAST MRGL GUST OR HAIL POTENTIAL.
..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY2
SPC AC 251717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CHAOTIC SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER CONUS THROUGH DAY-2...S
OF TRAIN OF HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES FROM AK TO ERN CANADA.
INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED SPEED MAX -- NOW EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NWRN ONT AND ERN AB -- IS FCST TO
PIVOT CYCLONICALLY ACROSS LS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER
DAY-1...REACHING ERN LOWER MI AND NRN WI BY 26/12Z. PERTURBATION
THEN SHOULD TURN EWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...MOVING ACROSS SERN ONT
AROUND 27/00Z AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 27/12Z. MEANWHILE...MID-UPPER
CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER UT SHOULD DRIFT EWD TO WRN CO BY START OF
PERIOD. GRADUAL FILLING OF LOW WILL PERSIST INTO DAY-2 AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY CUT OFF FROM NRN-STREAM FLOW BELT. AS SUCH...FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS WRN CO POSITION UNTIL DAY-3...WHILE
BECOMING OPEN-WAVE TROUGH.
SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM NRN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS IA TO SWRN
KS -- IS FCST TO MOVE TO CENTRAL/ERN NY...CENTRAL/SRN OH...SRN
MO...NRN/WRN OK AND NRN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE BY 27/00Z. SEGMENT OF
FRONT W OF MS RIVER SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY DURING LATTER HALF
OF PERIOD...PERTURBED MAINLY BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...DIFFUSE DRYLINE SHOULD SET UP FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN TX
PANHANDLE SSWWD ACROSS LOWER PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN REGION OF W TX AND
EXTREME SERN NM. THIS DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WWD ACROSS SRN HIGH
PLAINS DURING LOCAL EVENING HOURS.
...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO OZARKS AND LOWER OH VALLEY...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON
INVOF FRONT...NRN SEGMENT OF DRYLINE...AND OVER SERN CO/NERN NM
AREA...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. THOUGH WELL-REMOVED FROM
STRONGEST MID-UPPER WINDS...AT LEAST MRGL/CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT
EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THESE TSTMS MAY AGGREGATE INTO
MULTICELLULAR MCS DURING EVENING WITH COLD-POOL DRIVEN FORWARD
PROPAGATION. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FACTORS MOST SUITABLE FOR SUCH
EVOLUTION REMAIN TOO UNCERTAIN TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
UNCONDITIONAL SVR THREAT ATTM.
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED IN AND N OF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE...WHERE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WWD
AND UPSLOPE OVER PORTIONS SWRN KS...SERN CO AND POSTFRONTAL
PANHANDLES. STRONGLY HEATED...WELL-MIXED AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND S OF FRONT OVER OK AND TX PANHANDLE...IN SUPPORT
OF STG/ISOLATED SVR GUSTS. STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONGER DEEP SHEAR N OF FRONT...LATTER BEING AIDED BY ELY FLOW
COMPONENT...ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM ORGANIZATION AND SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL.
...INLAND MID-ATLC AND ADJOINING APPALACHIANS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY PRIMARILY SHOULD BE
LOW-TOPPED IN NATURE GIVEN PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES IN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT EVIDENT IN FCST SOUNDINGS. WHEN JUXTAPOSED ABOVE PREFRONTAL
SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY LOW-MID 60S F OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS...MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG RESULTS IN MUCH OF THIS
CORRIDOR. NONETHELESS...EXPECT STRENGTHENING OF BOTH WINDS ALOFT
AND DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR...AS MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS.
THIS SUPPORTS MRGL UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES ATTM...PRIMARILY IN
FORM OF FOR DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS.
RELATIVE MIN IN SVR PROBABILITIES MAY EXIST BETWEEN THIS CORRIDOR
AND WRN AREA...MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE OH VALLEY
WHERE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT APPEAR RELATIVELY WEAK
IN PROGS. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO SOON TO CARVE OUT SPECIFIC AREA WHERE
TSTMS NEAR FRONT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SFC-BASED YET FAIL TO OFFER AT
LEAST MRGL GUST OR HAIL POTENTIAL.
..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KJKL [251647]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KJKL 251647
LSRJKL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1246 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1235 PM HAIL SCIENCE HILL 37.18N 84.64W
09/25/2012 E0.75 INCH PULASKI KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
&&
$$
JCARICO
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRJKL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1246 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1235 PM HAIL SCIENCE HILL 37.18N 84.64W
09/25/2012 E0.75 INCH PULASKI KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
&&
$$
JCARICO
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 251617
SWODY1
SPC AC 251615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OK THROUGH THE OZARKS
INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO GREAT PLAINS WITH GENERALLY A
CONFLUENT...WEAKLY CYCLONIC PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE
NATION. WITHIN THIS BROAD-SCALE PATTERN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY OVER THE OH VALLEY WHILE
FARTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SERN CO/NERN NM
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM A WEAK CYCLONE OVER CNTRL WI SWWD THROUGH
E-CNTRL KS/W-CNTRL MO INTO THE OK/NRN TX PNHDLS AND NERN NM. A
NUMBER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE ANALYZED ON THIS
BOUNDARY...NEAR MKC...AVK...AND GUY. A WARM FRONT INTERSECTED THE
FORMER BOUNDARY AT THE MKC SURFACE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE STRETCHING
SEWD THROUGH CNTRL INTO SERN MO AND THEN MORE SWD ALONG THE MS
RIVER. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL
MCS ONGOING ACROSS KY EXTENDED FROM NEAR OR JUST N OF STL ESEWD INTO
CNTRL KY. THESE THREE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO
SERVE AS LOCI FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SGF/LZK/BNA SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EML WHICH
HAS BEEN ADVECTED EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WITHIN SUBTROPICAL
MIDLEVEL AIR STREAM. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OVERLAY A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ALONG A
SWLY LLJ. THESE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ONGOING MCS
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1500-3000 J/KG.
LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND WEAK
DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS TO
FOSTER A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENED...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT OWING
TO THE CONFLUENT LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL YIELD MODEST DEEP-LAYER
FLOW FIELDS WITH HODOGRAPHS EXHIBITING VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST...THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO.
THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
STABILIZES.
...WRN OK INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE WRN EXTENSION OF AN EML MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION IS
CLEARLY OBSERVED BY 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WHERE 700-500-MB LAPSE
RATES RANGED FROM 7.5-9.0 C/KM. AND WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OVER THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL YIELD WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EWD FROM SERN
CO/NERN NM ALONG WITH A WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OBSERVED OVER
CNTRL KS AS OF LATE MORNING WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AND DEVELOPING DRYLINE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN OK. WHILE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. LESS THAN 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM/...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS
STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AT THE TERMINUS OF A DEVELOPING
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY1
SPC AC 251615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OK THROUGH THE OZARKS
INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO GREAT PLAINS WITH GENERALLY A
CONFLUENT...WEAKLY CYCLONIC PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE
NATION. WITHIN THIS BROAD-SCALE PATTERN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY OVER THE OH VALLEY WHILE
FARTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SERN CO/NERN NM
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM A WEAK CYCLONE OVER CNTRL WI SWWD THROUGH
E-CNTRL KS/W-CNTRL MO INTO THE OK/NRN TX PNHDLS AND NERN NM. A
NUMBER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE ANALYZED ON THIS
BOUNDARY...NEAR MKC...AVK...AND GUY. A WARM FRONT INTERSECTED THE
FORMER BOUNDARY AT THE MKC SURFACE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE STRETCHING
SEWD THROUGH CNTRL INTO SERN MO AND THEN MORE SWD ALONG THE MS
RIVER. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL
MCS ONGOING ACROSS KY EXTENDED FROM NEAR OR JUST N OF STL ESEWD INTO
CNTRL KY. THESE THREE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO
SERVE AS LOCI FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SGF/LZK/BNA SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EML WHICH
HAS BEEN ADVECTED EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WITHIN SUBTROPICAL
MIDLEVEL AIR STREAM. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OVERLAY A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ALONG A
SWLY LLJ. THESE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ONGOING MCS
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1500-3000 J/KG.
LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND WEAK
DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS TO
FOSTER A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENED...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT OWING
TO THE CONFLUENT LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL YIELD MODEST DEEP-LAYER
FLOW FIELDS WITH HODOGRAPHS EXHIBITING VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST...THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO.
THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
STABILIZES.
...WRN OK INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE WRN EXTENSION OF AN EML MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION IS
CLEARLY OBSERVED BY 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WHERE 700-500-MB LAPSE
RATES RANGED FROM 7.5-9.0 C/KM. AND WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OVER THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL YIELD WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EWD FROM SERN
CO/NERN NM ALONG WITH A WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OBSERVED OVER
CNTRL KS AS OF LATE MORNING WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AND DEVELOPING DRYLINE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN OK. WHILE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. LESS THAN 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM/...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS
STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AT THE TERMINUS OF A DEVELOPING
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KILX [251545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KILX 251545
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN JACKSONVILLE 39.73N 90.23W
09/25/2012 M1.20 INCH MORGAN IL COCORAHS
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
1042 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW WOODSON 39.62N 90.24W
09/25/2012 M1.20 INCH MORGAN IL MESONET
FROM SWOP...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR
&&
$$
LAUFENBERG
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN JACKSONVILLE 39.73N 90.23W
09/25/2012 M1.20 INCH MORGAN IL COCORAHS
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
1042 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW WOODSON 39.62N 90.24W
09/25/2012 M1.20 INCH MORGAN IL MESONET
FROM SWOP...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR
&&
$$
LAUFENBERG
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KILX [251409]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KILX 251409
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
909 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE CLAY CITY 38.61N 88.31W
09/25/2012 M1.55 INCH CLAY IL CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
0630 AM HEAVY RAIN AUBURN 39.58N 89.75W
09/25/2012 M1.04 INCH SANGAMON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW TAYLORVILLE 39.50N 89.29W
09/25/2012 M1.05 INCH CHRISTIAN IL CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN WINCHESTER 39.63N 90.46W
09/25/2012 M1.15 INCH SCOTT IL CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
&&
$$
LAUFENBERG
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
909 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE CLAY CITY 38.61N 88.31W
09/25/2012 M1.55 INCH CLAY IL CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
0630 AM HEAVY RAIN AUBURN 39.58N 89.75W
09/25/2012 M1.04 INCH SANGAMON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW TAYLORVILLE 39.50N 89.29W
09/25/2012 M1.05 INCH CHRISTIAN IL CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN WINCHESTER 39.63N 90.46W
09/25/2012 M1.15 INCH SCOTT IL CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
&&
$$
LAUFENBERG
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 251250
SWODY1
SPC AC 251247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER
OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR WRN OK INTO FAR S-CNTRL KS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER UT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD INTO WRN
CO BY EARLY WED. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY...AND SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR AREAS OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
AN EXPANSIVE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS DRIVEN BY ROBUST LOWER-LEVEL
WARM THETA-E ADVECTION MAY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY RETARD THE NEWD ADVANCEMENT
OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN TN. THIS
SHOULD AID IN FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING AS THE
WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY REACHING 1500-3000
J/KG...WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 DEG C/KM IN THE 12Z
LZK RAOB. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. 35-45 KT W/SWLYS AT 700
MB COULD FOSTER UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENT
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL. UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE
THIS MAY OCCUR PRECLUDES MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES
ATTM.
...WRN OK TO SERN KS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAX INFERRED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND SAMPLED BY THE 12Z ABQ RAOB WILL BE
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
SETUP FROM NWRN OK INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...INTERSECTING A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SERN KS. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTE
TO MODERATE BUOYANCY. VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AROUND 9 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB IN THE 12Z AMA
RAOB...WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND...WITH
ACTIVITY WEAKENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
..GRAMS/SMITH.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY1
SPC AC 251247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER
OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR WRN OK INTO FAR S-CNTRL KS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER UT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD INTO WRN
CO BY EARLY WED. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY...AND SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR AREAS OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
AN EXPANSIVE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS DRIVEN BY ROBUST LOWER-LEVEL
WARM THETA-E ADVECTION MAY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY RETARD THE NEWD ADVANCEMENT
OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN TN. THIS
SHOULD AID IN FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING AS THE
WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY REACHING 1500-3000
J/KG...WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 DEG C/KM IN THE 12Z
LZK RAOB. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. 35-45 KT W/SWLYS AT 700
MB COULD FOSTER UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENT
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL. UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE
THIS MAY OCCUR PRECLUDES MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES
ATTM.
...WRN OK TO SERN KS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAX INFERRED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND SAMPLED BY THE 12Z ABQ RAOB WILL BE
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
SETUP FROM NWRN OK INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...INTERSECTING A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SERN KS. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTE
TO MODERATE BUOYANCY. VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AROUND 9 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB IN THE 12Z AMA
RAOB...WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND...WITH
ACTIVITY WEAKENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
..GRAMS/SMITH.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KPAH [251027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KPAH 251027
LSRPAH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
526 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0517 AM HAIL CROSSVILLE 38.16N 88.06W
09/25/2012 E0.75 INCH WHITE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED.
&&
$$
CW
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRPAH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
526 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0517 AM HAIL CROSSVILLE 38.16N 88.06W
09/25/2012 E0.75 INCH WHITE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED.
&&
$$
CW
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 250853
SWOD48
SPC AC 250852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LATEST RUNS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS DAY 4 WITH THE HANDLING OF A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE ADJACENT NERN CONUS.
ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS OCCUR WITH TIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY AFFECTS CONFIDENCE LEVELS
REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
HAVING SAID THAT...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE U.S. --
ASIDE FROM THE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
-- IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK...WITH RIDGING PREVAILING ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS QUITE LOW AT
THIS TIME THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWOD48
SPC AC 250852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LATEST RUNS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS DAY 4 WITH THE HANDLING OF A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE ADJACENT NERN CONUS.
ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS OCCUR WITH TIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY AFFECTS CONFIDENCE LEVELS
REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
HAVING SAID THAT...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE U.S. --
ASIDE FROM THE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
-- IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK...WITH RIDGING PREVAILING ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS QUITE LOW AT
THIS TIME THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 250723
SWODY3
SPC AC 250721
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE U.S.
THIS PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER FLOW ALOFT CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ERN CANADA TROUGHING.
A WEAKENING/NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS OK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A ZONE OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KS/NRN OK
REGION AND INTO THE FRONT RANGE WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT HERE -- AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
..GOSS.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY3
SPC AC 250721
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE U.S.
THIS PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER FLOW ALOFT CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ERN CANADA TROUGHING.
A WEAKENING/NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS OK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A ZONE OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KS/NRN OK
REGION AND INTO THE FRONT RANGE WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT HERE -- AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
..GOSS.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1983
ACUS11 KWNS 250552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250551
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-250745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...MID-MS VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250551Z - 250745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NRN/CNTRL MO
INTO SRN IL. A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITHIN THE
STRONGER CORES.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE COMMENCED ACROSS NRN MO WITHIN A
CORRIDOR OF ROBUST 850-700 MB WARM THETA-E ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH BASES
APPEAR TO BE ROOTED AROUND 700 MB PER METAR CEILING HEIGHTS...THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS BEING FED ON THE PERIPHERY OF A N/S-ORIENTED AXIS OF
MUCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG CENTERED ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU.
ALTHOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD BASE...NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MODERATE WLYS IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD YIELD
ONLY WEAK SPEED SHEAR WHICH WILL LARGELY MITIGATE SUSTAINED UPDRAFT
ROTATION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HAIL GROWTH POTENTIAL DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
00Z WRF-NSSL/NMM RUNS WERE A BIT SLOW WITH DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEIR
SCENARIO APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CONVECTION GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
CLUSTER. RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM WITH ERN EXTENT/ BENEATH A FAIRLY STOUT EML SHOULD LIMIT
PENETRATION OF STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS TO THE SURFACE.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 09/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40379321 39939097 39128790 38768745 38348736 37568778
37308843 37228901 37638993 38059097 38989286 39619406
39859416 40189405 40379321
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250551
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-250745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...MID-MS VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250551Z - 250745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NRN/CNTRL MO
INTO SRN IL. A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITHIN THE
STRONGER CORES.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE COMMENCED ACROSS NRN MO WITHIN A
CORRIDOR OF ROBUST 850-700 MB WARM THETA-E ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH BASES
APPEAR TO BE ROOTED AROUND 700 MB PER METAR CEILING HEIGHTS...THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS BEING FED ON THE PERIPHERY OF A N/S-ORIENTED AXIS OF
MUCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG CENTERED ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU.
ALTHOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD BASE...NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MODERATE WLYS IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD YIELD
ONLY WEAK SPEED SHEAR WHICH WILL LARGELY MITIGATE SUSTAINED UPDRAFT
ROTATION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HAIL GROWTH POTENTIAL DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
00Z WRF-NSSL/NMM RUNS WERE A BIT SLOW WITH DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEIR
SCENARIO APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CONVECTION GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
CLUSTER. RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM WITH ERN EXTENT/ BENEATH A FAIRLY STOUT EML SHOULD LIMIT
PENETRATION OF STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS TO THE SURFACE.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 09/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40379321 39939097 39128790 38768745 38348736 37568778
37308843 37228901 37638993 38059097 38989286 39619406
39859416 40189405 40379321
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 250551
SWODY2
SPC AC 250550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND...THE FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
U.S. IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CORRESPONDING TO
THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN...A RELATIVELY NONDESCRIPT SURFACE EVOLUTION
IS FORECAST...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT --
STRETCHING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WWD INTO KS -- WILL FOCUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...SRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AREA...
WHILE VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL
EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. INVOF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR IN THIS AREA SHOULD GENERALLY
PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL -- SUPPORTIVE OF 5% SEVERE RISK AREA --
APPEARS TO EXIST FROM PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT
SRN KS/NRN OK EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. SLIGHTLY
GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT ACROSS THIS
REGION -- WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE...A FEW
LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS. THIS THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD WANE WITH TIME WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
..GOSS.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY2
SPC AC 250550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND...THE FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
U.S. IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CORRESPONDING TO
THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN...A RELATIVELY NONDESCRIPT SURFACE EVOLUTION
IS FORECAST...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT --
STRETCHING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WWD INTO KS -- WILL FOCUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...SRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AREA...
WHILE VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL
EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. INVOF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR IN THIS AREA SHOULD GENERALLY
PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL -- SUPPORTIVE OF 5% SEVERE RISK AREA --
APPEARS TO EXIST FROM PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT
SRN KS/NRN OK EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. SLIGHTLY
GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT ACROSS THIS
REGION -- WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE...A FEW
LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS. THIS THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD WANE WITH TIME WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
..GOSS.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 250550
SWODY1
SPC AC 250548
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MO INTO SRN IL...SWRN
IND AND WRN KY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY
TUE MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE EWD WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW REGIME S OF
THE LARGER ERN CANADIAN TROUGH. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH LIFT ENHANCED BY A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. TO THE
W...GENERALLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE PLAINS...WITH A
WEAK UPPER LOW AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. AS A
RESULT OF THIS FLOW REGIME...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES.
AT THE SURFACE...SLY FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS
VALLEY. A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN OK INTO SERN KS INTO ERN
MO...MERGING WITH A PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN IL AND
IND. PERIODS OF STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH SOME PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
...SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY...
MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM IL EWD INTO SRN IND AND
KY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WITH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD BE
MARGINAL. LATER IN THE DAY...HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG AND S OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY THE EARLIER STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD EXIST ROUGHLY FROM ERN/SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY. WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING...HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL STORMS. COOL MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES...HEATING...AND
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SETS UP.
...WRN OK INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT HEATING SHOULD REMOVE MOST CIN...WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F.
ALTHOUGH LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME INCREASE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS MAY HELP
ORGANIZE A FEW LONGER LIVED STORM CLUSTERS. BOTH HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PRODUCING LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STORMS
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY 06Z.
..JEWELL.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY1
SPC AC 250548
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MO INTO SRN IL...SWRN
IND AND WRN KY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY
TUE MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE EWD WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW REGIME S OF
THE LARGER ERN CANADIAN TROUGH. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH LIFT ENHANCED BY A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. TO THE
W...GENERALLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE PLAINS...WITH A
WEAK UPPER LOW AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. AS A
RESULT OF THIS FLOW REGIME...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES.
AT THE SURFACE...SLY FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS
VALLEY. A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN OK INTO SERN KS INTO ERN
MO...MERGING WITH A PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN IL AND
IND. PERIODS OF STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH SOME PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
...SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY...
MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM IL EWD INTO SRN IND AND
KY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WITH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD BE
MARGINAL. LATER IN THE DAY...HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG AND S OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY THE EARLIER STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD EXIST ROUGHLY FROM ERN/SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY. WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING...HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL STORMS. COOL MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES...HEATING...AND
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SETS UP.
...WRN OK INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT HEATING SHOULD REMOVE MOST CIN...WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F.
ALTHOUGH LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME INCREASE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS MAY HELP
ORGANIZE A FEW LONGER LIVED STORM CLUSTERS. BOTH HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PRODUCING LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STORMS
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY 06Z.
..JEWELL.. 09/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KHNX [250410]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KHNX 250410
LSRHNX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
909 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1227 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NE PIUTES 35.55N 118.15W
09/24/2012 M53 MPH KERN CA MESONET
BIRD SPRINGS PASS RAWS.
0732 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NW INDIAN WELLS CANYO 35.76N 117.98W
09/24/2012 M54 MPH KERN CA MESONET
BLUE MAX RAWS.
1214 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JAWBONE CANYON 35.29N 118.23W
09/24/2012 M58 MPH KERN CA MESONET
JAWBONE CANYON RAWS.
0235 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TEHACHAPI 35.13N 118.44W
09/24/2012 M43 MPH KERN CA AWOS
TEHACHAPI MUNICIPAL AIRPORT /KTSP/.
1226 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON 35.69N 117.89W
09/24/2012 M53 MPH KERN CA MESONET
INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAWS.
0241 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ROSAMOND 34.86N 118.20W
09/24/2012 M43 MPH KERN CA MESONET
ROSAMOND KC0IGH APRS.
&&
$$
SANGER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRHNX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
909 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1227 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NE PIUTES 35.55N 118.15W
09/24/2012 M53 MPH KERN CA MESONET
BIRD SPRINGS PASS RAWS.
0732 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NW INDIAN WELLS CANYO 35.76N 117.98W
09/24/2012 M54 MPH KERN CA MESONET
BLUE MAX RAWS.
1214 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JAWBONE CANYON 35.29N 118.23W
09/24/2012 M58 MPH KERN CA MESONET
JAWBONE CANYON RAWS.
0235 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TEHACHAPI 35.13N 118.44W
09/24/2012 M43 MPH KERN CA AWOS
TEHACHAPI MUNICIPAL AIRPORT /KTSP/.
1226 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON 35.69N 117.89W
09/24/2012 M53 MPH KERN CA MESONET
INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAWS.
0241 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ROSAMOND 34.86N 118.20W
09/24/2012 M43 MPH KERN CA MESONET
ROSAMOND KC0IGH APRS.
&&
$$
SANGER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)