MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1984

ACUS11 KWNS 251759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251759
ILZ000-MOZ000-251900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251759Z - 251900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MO AS OF 17Z. EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...A WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE MS RIVER
WHILE THE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECAY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL. SOUTH OF ONGOING /CURRENTLY
ELEVATED/ SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 IN MO/SOUTH-CENTRAL
IL...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY /SINCE 1630Z/ IS INDICATIVE OF
AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MO WHERE AMPLE INSOLATION OTHERWISE
CONTINUES TO OCCUR. BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS AND
MODEL-BASED SOUNDINGS...THIS IS WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
CONTINUES TO STEADILY ERODE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH/EXCEED
80 F THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J PER KG/...AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE/SPEED
MAX...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS STORMS MATURE...MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS /40 KT 0-6 KM PER RECENT ST LOUIS WSR-88D VWP/
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR
THE WARM FRONT.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 09/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37529251 38069267 38469227 39049128 39389008 39348895
39128843 38938792 38558790 38098816 37508876 37649074
37469222 37529251

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