KSEW [190451]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 190451
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
851 PM PST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S ANACORTES 48.42N 122.63W
11/18/2009 M57.00 MPH SKAGIT WA PUBLIC

GUST TO 57 MPH ON SOUTH FIDALGO ISLAND.

0821 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW ANACORTES 48.50N 122.66W
11/18/2009 M55.00 MPH SKAGIT WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED MID 20S, GUST 55 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

$$

DDAMICO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KILX [190446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 190446
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1043 PM HEAVY RAIN NEWMAN 39.80N 87.99W
11/18/2009 M3.58 INCH DOUGLAS IL MESONET

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...SWOP REPORT

&&

$$

DPK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KILX [190345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 190345
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
945 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM HEAVY RAIN RANTOUL 40.30N 88.16W
11/18/2009 M2.15 INCH CHAMPAIGN IL MESONET

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE SUNDAY...SWOP REPORT

&&

$$

DPK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KILX [190211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 190211
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
811 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 S GREENVIEW 40.04N 89.74W
11/18/2009 M2.94 INCH MENARD IL MESONET

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...SWOP REPORT

&&

$$

DPK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190043
SWODY1
SPC AC 190041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NC COAST TO THE OH VALLEY...

STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY WHERE LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KT SHOULD PERSIST. BUOYANCY
IS EXTREMELY LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION BUT APPARENTLY ADEQUATE FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...PER RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER
SERN OH. EVEN SO...MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIGHTNING-FREE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST...DEEPER UPDRAFTS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF GULF STREAM. IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER FORCING...ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP COOLER
AIRMASS WEDGED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY BE INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS INLAND.

..DARROW.. 11/19/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KILX [190012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 190012
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
612 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM HEAVY RAIN MONTICELLO 40.03N 88.57W
11/18/2009 M3.01 INCH PIATT IL MESONET

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE SUNDAY MORNING

&&

$$

DPK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KILX [190009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 190009
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
609 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0556 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 E PETERSBURG 40.01N 89.70W
11/18/2009 M2.78 INCH MENARD IL MESONET

STORM TOTAL SINCE 9AM 11/15...SWOP REPORT

&&

$$

DPK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KILX [182335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 182335
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
535 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 S CHESTNUT 40.02N 89.20W
11/18/2009 M2.72 INCH LOGAN IL MESONET

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

&&

$$

DPK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLSX [182330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 182330
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
530 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0528 PM HEAVY RAIN WENTZVILLE 38.81N 90.86W
11/18/2009 E3.70 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900387

$$

TES

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMFR [182256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 182256
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 PM PST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG GOLD BEACH 42.41N 124.42W
11/17/2009 CURRY OR UTILITY COMPANY

30 INDIVIDUAL OUTAGES RANGING FROM ONE TO 100 HOMES
WITHOUT POWER PER OUTAGE FROM BROOKINGS TO COOS BAY.
RELATED BY COOS CURRY ELECTRIC.

&&

$$

SVEN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMFR [182217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 182217
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
217 PM PST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BANDON 43.12N 124.42W
11/17/2009 COOS OR UTILITY COMPANY

TREES TOPPLES ONTO POWER LINES...RESULTING IN POWER
OUTAGES TO 250 HOMES.

&&

$$

SVEN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMFR [182120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 182120
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
120 PM PST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG COQUILLE 43.18N 124.18W
11/17/2009 COOS OR UTILITY COMPANY

TREES BLOWN OVER ONTO POWER LINES. 3,500 HOME WITHOUT
POWER UNTIL AROUND 654 AM.

&&

$$

SVEN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KILX [182013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 182013
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
213 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0207 PM HEAVY RAIN MANITO 40.42N 89.78W
11/18/2009 M2.44 INCH MASON IL MESONET

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...SWOP REPORT

&&

$$

DPK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181941
SWODY1
SPC AC 181939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY...

SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF ASCENT
ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT THAT EXTENDS FROM NC THROUGH THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WEDGE OF COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
SWRN EXTENSION OF NERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...A SMALL MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO COASTAL NC
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOW MEAGER CAPE...BUT INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY UNDERGO A MODEST INCREASE WITH TIME AS HIGHER THETA-E
AIR FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC ADVECTS NWWD ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED INLAND DUE TO THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL/COOK.. 11/18/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE STL AREA AT 12Z IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A S/W TROUGH
EMERGING OUT OF THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM GA NWD INTO THE MID OH VALLEY REGION...AND THEN W
ACROSS IL/IND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER ERN MO. E OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDED
S-SWD TOWARD SC...WHICH WAS MAINTAINING A COOL BUT MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.

...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY...
AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NWD THROUGH THE NIGHT...LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...WITH AN EWD SURGE IN THE OCCLUDED FRONT FORECAST TO OCCUR
OVER THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ABOVE A COOL/STABLE SURFACE AIRMASS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

...APPALACHIAN MTNS SWD INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...
A WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER GA TO A
LOCATION ALONG THE SC/NC COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
WIDESPREAD STRATUS PRESENT N OF THE WEDGE FRONT...WHICH WILL IMPEDE
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...NWD
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WEDGE/COASTAL
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NWD THROUGH NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. HOWEVER...A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE
DEPICTED...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF A TWO PERCENT
TORNADO AREA AT THIS TIME.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPQR [181803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 181803
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1003 AM PST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG OREGON CITY 45.34N 122.60W
11/16/2009 CLACKAMAS OR BROADCAST MEDIA

POWER OUTAGE IN THE CITY.

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG KALAMA 46.01N 122.84W
11/16/2009 COWLITZ WA BROADCAST MEDIA

POWER OUTAGE IN THE CITY.

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CLACKAMAS 45.41N 122.55W
11/16/2009 CLACKAMAS OR BROADCAST MEDIA

FROM 10 PM THROUGH 11 PM PST, 1,700 HOMES IMPACTED BY
POWER OUTAGE IN THE COUNTY.

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW NEWPORT 44.68N 124.07W
11/16/2009 LINCOLN OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SIDING ON RESIDENTIAL HOMES DAMAGED.

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SEASIDE 45.99N 123.92W
11/16/2009 CLATSOP OR BROADCAST MEDIA

POWER OUTAGE IN THE CITY.

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG FOREST GROVE 45.52N 123.10W
11/16/2009 WASHINGTON OR BROADCAST MEDIA

POWER OUTAGE IN THE CITY.

0900 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NE PORTLAND AIRPORT 45.59N 122.60W
11/16/2009 MULTNOMAH OR UNKNOWN

TREES DOWN ON RESIDENTIAL HOME LATE MONDAY EVENING.

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CANNON BEACH 45.89N 123.96W
11/16/2009 CLATSOP OR UNKNOWN

TREES DOWN ON HWY. 101.

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SEASIDE 45.99N 123.92W
11/16/2009 CLATSOP OR UNKNOWN

ROOF DAMAGE ON CITY HALL.

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG TILLAMOOK 45.46N 123.84W
11/16/2009 TILLAMOOK OR EMERGENCY MNGR

SE CORNER OF RESIDENTIAL ROOF BLOWN OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCATED AT THE BARVIEW JETTY AREA OFF OF HWY. 101.

&&

$$

LRAMIREZ

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181734
SWODY2
SPC AC 181733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL EJECT
NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AS WRN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER CA WILL MOVE INTO TX BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE AN
OCCLUDED LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING
FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE NERN STATES...MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD
THROUGH ERN NC AND SERN VA. FARTHER WEST A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.

...CNTRL AND S TX...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL
ADVECT NWWD THROUGH SRN TX AS SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED EAST OF LEE TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN BENEATH
MODEST 6.5-7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL ADVECT EWD AHEAD
OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING IN 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE OVER S
AND S-CNTRL TX BY THURSDAY EVENING. FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION
PROMOTED BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND S TX OVERNIGHT.
STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP MODEST
ROTATION. ISOLATED...SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS.

...NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

SELY BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AS SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS TO OFF THE NERN U.S.
COAST. HOWEVER...A SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOL AIR COULD STILL PERSIST
ACROSS A PORTION OF THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL AND WRN NC
AND VA. NEVERTHELESS...THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR
WILL BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE FROM THE ERN HALF OF NC INTO ERN VA. PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOSTLY NORTH OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..DIAL.. 11/18/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KILX [181657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 181657
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1057 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1052 AM FLOOD 4 E CORNLAND 39.94N 89.33W
11/18/2009 LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR

1400 AVE AND 1500 AVE AT 200 STREET AT LAKE FORK REMAIN
UNDERWATER.

&&

$$

JRP

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMFR [181633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 181633
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
833 AM PST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE SELMA 42.30N 123.59W
11/18/2009 M1.05 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL FROM 8AM TUESDAY TO 8AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

SPENCER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181624
SWODY1
SPC AC 181623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE STL AREA AT 12Z IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A S/W TROUGH
EMERGING OUT OF THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM GA NWD INTO THE MID OH VALLEY REGION...AND THEN W
ACROSS IL/IND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER ERN MO. E OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDED
S-SWD TOWARD SC...WHICH WAS MAINTAINING A COOL BUT MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.

...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY...
AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NWD THROUGH THE NIGHT...LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...WITH AN EWD SURGE IN THE OCCLUDED FRONT FORECAST TO OCCUR
OVER THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ABOVE A COOL/STABLE SURFACE AIRMASS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

...APPALACHIAN MTNS SWD INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...
A WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER GA TO A
LOCATION ALONG THE SC/NC COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
WIDESPREAD STRATUS PRESENT N OF THE WEDGE FRONT...WHICH WILL IMPEDE
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...NWD
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WEDGE/COASTAL
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NWD THROUGH NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. HOWEVER...A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE
DEPICTED...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF A TWO PERCENT
TORNADO AREA AT THIS TIME.

..GARNER/EVANS.. 11/18/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KCHS [181436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCHS 181436
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
935 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0854 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
11/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL

NOS TIDE GAGE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR REACHED 7.19 FEET MLLW
DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
TYPICALLY BEGINS AROUND 7.0 FEET MLLW.

0910 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
11/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

CHARLESTON PILOT BOAT OFFICE REPORTS A FEW INCHES OF SALT
WATER IN THEIR PARKING LOT AT THE END OF CONCORD STREET
DURING THE HIGH TIDE.

&&

$$

VB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KCHS [181432]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 181432
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
931 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0854 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
11/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL

NOS TIDE GAGE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR REACHED 7.19 FEET MLLW
DURING THE MORNING HIHG TIDE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
TYPICALLY BEGINS AROUND 7.0 FEET MLLW.

0910 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
11/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

CHARLESTON PILOT BOAST OFFICE REPORTS A FEW INCHES OF
SALT WATER IN THEIR PARKING LOT AT THE END OF CONCORD
STREET DURING THE HIGH TIDE.

&&

$$

VB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KRNK [181353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 181353
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
853 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SW RICHLANDS 37.09N 81.80W
11/18/2009 TAZEWELL VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ONE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN IN CLAYPOOL HILL.

&&

$$

WHP

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181248
SWODY1
SPC AC 181247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CAROLINAS TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE CLOSED/OCCLUDED LOW CENTERED NEAR STL AS OF 12Z WILL DRIFT NNEWD
OVER WRN/NWRN IL IN RESPONSE TO MODEST UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF A WEAKENING PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFUSE OCCLUDED FRONT ARCS
EWD FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER TO SRN INDIANA...AND THEN SSEWD ACROSS
KY/TN/GA/N FL. AN ELEVATED WAA REGIME IS ONGOING FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE OH VALLEY...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION AND SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO ERN OH/WRN
PA.

THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS IN QUESTION AS A
RESULT OF MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WELL SE OF THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE. THE WEAK FORCING AND A LACK
OF SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS SUGGEST THAT EROSION OF THE COOL AIR
WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAY BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN SHOWN IN
SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS...AS CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING INLAND TODAY. IF THE LOW LEVELS CAN WARM/MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
68-72 F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S/...THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE REMNANT COASTAL FRONT. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM
THREAT APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF ANY PROBABILITIES
IN THIS UPDATE.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 11/18/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180956
SWOD48
SPC AC 180955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AS A CONTINUANCE OF THE DAY 3 SCENARIO...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH DAYS 4-5 SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHILE SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INLAND PENETRATION
OF AN APPRECIABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR PRECLUDES 30% DAY 1 EQUIVALENT
PROBABILITIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE
TIMING/STRENGTH SPREAD AMONGST AVAILABLE ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE EXISTS
WITH RESPECT TO A POTENTIAL CENTRAL STATES UPPER THROUGH DURING THE
DAYS 6-8 MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

..GUYER.. 11/18/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180825
SWODY3
SPC AC 180824

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE SPLIT REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL ACCELERATE/TRANSITION FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WEST
COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FARTHER SOUTH...THE PRIMARY DEEP
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TIED TO A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO TO EAST
TX/WESTERN LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...TX/LA COASTS...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES TX AND POTENTIALLY
TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT AND MODESTLY DEEPENS /MORE SO 00Z GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF/...WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A NORTHWARD RETREATING MARINE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF...PERHAPS NEAR TX/LA
COASTAL AREAS. WHILE A RELATIVELY SEVERE STORM FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COULD DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALONG THE TX/LA COASTS...THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF INLAND
MOVEMENT OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/MARITIME AIRMASS IS UNCERTAIN.
GIVEN THE CURRENT PROBABILITY THAT THE TRUE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTIRELY OFFSHORE...SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 11/18/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180700
SWODY2
SPC AC 180659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMNANT MIDWEST CLOSED LOW DRIFTS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXTENSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE MOST LOCALES...BUT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC STATES...ALONG WITH SOUTH TX THURSDAY
NIGHT.

...NC/VA...
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT TRIPLE POINT WILL
TRANSITION ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE SOME
STRONG SEVERE BASED SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS
THAT EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO LIMIT DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. COMBINED WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

...SOUTH TX...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW LATITUDE/SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY CROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AS MASS FIELDS
BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THIS SYSTEM AND WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS
TX...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TOWARD
DEEP SOUTH TX DURING THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST TX/MUCH OF SOUTH TX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTH TX...SEVERAL FACTORS PRECLUDE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDING THE LIMITED VIGOR/POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE UPPER
WAVE...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
TOWARD THE TX COAST...AND LATTER PERIOD/NOCTURNAL NATURE OF ANY
SEVERE THREAT.

..GUYER.. 11/18/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KDVN [180651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 180651
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1251 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW MACOMB 40.47N 90.69W
11/18/2009 M1.90 INCH MCDONOUGH IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLSX [180544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 180544
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1144 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1144 PM HEAVY RAIN ALTON 38.90N 90.15W
11/17/2009 M3.90 INCH MADISON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900386

$$

TES

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180539
SWODY1
SPC AC 180538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER MO/IL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THIS PERIOD...WHILE SHIFTING NWD UP THE MS VALLEY TO ERN IA/NRN IL
LATE. THIS PERSISTENT/INCREASINGLY-BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH
TIME...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
AS THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM DISSIPATES
THROUGH 19/12Z.

STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED OVER PARTS OF THE ERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE
OH VALLEY/MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AHEAD OF
VERTICALLY-STACKED UPPER SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
MINIMAL/ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION...AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
THUNDER POTENTIAL FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD.

ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION. ONE AREA
OF SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS.
HERE...STORMS ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME.
WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE 850 TO 500 MB LAYER COMBINED WITH
VERY MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED
STORMS...MODELS HINT THAT 0-1 KM SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A STRONGER CELL OR TWO. ATTM...THREAT
APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EVEN 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.

..GOSS/JEWELL.. 11/18/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KREV [180527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 180527
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
927 PM PST TUE NOV 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM SNOW S BIEBER 41.12N 121.14W
11/17/2009 M1.0 INCH LASSEN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW NEAR BIEBER CA. ELEVATION 4300
FEET. SNOW ENDED AROUND 830PM PST.

&&

$$

HOON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMFR [180504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180504
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
904 PM PST TUE NOV 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0904 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
11/17/2009 M2.42 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 2100 PST.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.