SWODY2
SPC AC 180659
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMNANT MIDWEST CLOSED LOW DRIFTS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXTENSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE MOST LOCALES...BUT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC STATES...ALONG WITH SOUTH TX THURSDAY
NIGHT.
...NC/VA...
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT TRIPLE POINT WILL
TRANSITION ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE SOME
STRONG SEVERE BASED SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS
THAT EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO LIMIT DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. COMBINED WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
...SOUTH TX...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW LATITUDE/SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY CROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AS MASS FIELDS
BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THIS SYSTEM AND WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS
TX...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TOWARD
DEEP SOUTH TX DURING THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST TX/MUCH OF SOUTH TX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTH TX...SEVERAL FACTORS PRECLUDE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDING THE LIMITED VIGOR/POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE UPPER
WAVE...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
TOWARD THE TX COAST...AND LATTER PERIOD/NOCTURNAL NATURE OF ANY
SEVERE THREAT.
..GUYER.. 11/18/2009
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