SWODY3
SPC AC 180824
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE SPLIT REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL ACCELERATE/TRANSITION FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WEST
COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FARTHER SOUTH...THE PRIMARY DEEP
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TIED TO A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO TO EAST
TX/WESTERN LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...TX/LA COASTS...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES TX AND POTENTIALLY
TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT AND MODESTLY DEEPENS /MORE SO 00Z GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF/...WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A NORTHWARD RETREATING MARINE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF...PERHAPS NEAR TX/LA
COASTAL AREAS. WHILE A RELATIVELY SEVERE STORM FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COULD DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALONG THE TX/LA COASTS...THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF INLAND
MOVEMENT OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/MARITIME AIRMASS IS UNCERTAIN.
GIVEN THE CURRENT PROBABILITY THAT THE TRUE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTIRELY OFFSHORE...SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 11/18/2009
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