MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2166

ACUS11 KWNS 260357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260357
FLZ000-ALZ000-260500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 260357Z - 260500Z

THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED... TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...A ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING A
STORM CLUSTER ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREAS...NOW EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACTIVITY APPEARS MOSTLY ROOTED ABOVE A WEAKLY
STABLE OR NEUTRAL SURFACE BASED LAYER...WHICH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST REMAINS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET DEEP INLAND OF THE COASTAL
WATERS.

GIVEN A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF 15 KT OR
SO...WITHIN A NEAR SATURATED LOW/MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SEEMS LOW. AND...THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE WITH CAPE OVER INLAND AREAS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 500
J/KG. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...AND SIZABLE...CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 30+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW...PROVIDES AT
LEAST SOME RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL.

THE THREAT APPEARS CONFINED MOSTLY TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...AND
LOW...THROUGH THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME...AS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE AND
PRECEDING ISOLATED CELLS SPREAD EAST OF MOBILE BAY THROUGH THE
PENSACOLA AREA. BUT...POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IF
POSITIVELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER FINALLY SPREADS INLAND WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES INTO AREAS
NEAR/NORTH OF PANAMA CITY.

.KERR.. 11/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

31218773 31428656 31268585 30898512 30148496 29618557
29808633 29968697 29988746 30368795

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KFWD [260351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 260351
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 PM SNOW EASTLAND 32.40N 98.82W
11/25/2007 E2.00 INCH EASTLAND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

EASTLAND COUNTY S.O. REPORTED 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND IN THE CITY OF EASTLAND.

$$

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KFWD [260346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 260346
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
946 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM SNOW OLNEY 33.36N 98.76W
11/25/2007 E0.50 INCH YOUNG TX EMERGENCY MNGR

OLNEY EMC REPORTED 1/2 INCH OF SNOW MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES.

$$

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KLUB [260346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 260346
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
946 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HEAVY SNOW PLAINS 33.19N 102.83W
11/25/2007 E4.0 INCH YOAKUM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCALIZED 4 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WERE REPORTED IN
YOAKUM COUNTY FROM PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF DENVER
CITY.

0430 PM HEAVY SNOW O'DONNELL 32.97N 101.83W
11/25/2007 E4.0 INCH LYNN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

TLINDLEY

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KFWD [260311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 260311
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
911 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM SNOW JERMYN 33.26N 98.39W
11/25/2007 E1.00 INCH JACK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

JACK COUNTY S.O. REPORTED SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COUNTY. SNOW ON THE ROADS IN JERMYN
IS SLOWING TRAFFIC.

$$

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KFWD [260308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 260308
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
908 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM SNOW JACKSBORO 33.22N 98.15W
11/25/2007 E1.00 INCH JACK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

JACKSBORO P.D REPORTED AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW COVERING
THE GROUND. SOME SNOW IS ON THE ROADS TOO.

$$

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KLCH [260139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLCH 260139
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
739 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 38 SSW RUTHERFORD BEACH 29.24N 93.30W
11/25/2007 M55.00 MPH GMZ470 XX PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 205.

0836 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 25 S PECAN ISLAND 29.28N 92.45W
11/25/2007 E40.00 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

PLATFORM VERMILLION 78 REPORTED ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 40
MPH.

0932 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 25 SE PECAN ISLAND 29.38N 92.17W
11/25/2007 M42.00 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

PLATFORM VERMILLION 51 REPORTED MEASURED WIND GUST TO 42
MPH.

0159 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 77 S BURNS POINT 28.47N 91.39W
11/25/2007 M44.00 MPH GMZ475 XX PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND BLOCK 258.

&&

$$

MOGGED

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KLIX [260053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 260053
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
653 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG BURAS 29.34N 89.50W
11/25/2007 PLAQUEMINES LA EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

$$

PGRIGSBY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260042
SWODY1
SPC AC 260039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

..SERN LA/SRN MS/SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL TX. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT...REACHING ERN OK/WRN AR BY 12Z MONDAY.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NERN LA WILL TRACK NNEWD REACHING WRN TN...WHILE THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS MS/SERN LA AND EXTENDS SWD ALONG THE MS/
AL BORDER INTO THE GULF BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING
INLAND N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIMIT NWD INTRUSION OF WARM SECTOR.
THUS...THE WARM FRONT WHICH ALREADY EXTENDED INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN MS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO BACK TO SSWLY ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WINDS ALSO
STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NEWD AND UNDERGOES
SOME DEEPENING. DEEP LAYER FORCING SPREADING EWD WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK INLAND FROM THE
COAST...NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS/SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS/BOWING STRUCTURES
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING SOME WIND THREAT.
MEANWHILE...EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL SRH VALUES AND GREATER INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM SERN MS/LA EWD TO SWRN AL/FL PANHANDLE
ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.PETERS.. 11/26/2007

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KIWX [260042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 260042
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM SNOW BUCHANAN 41.83N 86.37W
11/25/2007 M0.5 INCH BERRIEN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00077

$$

LMK

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 737

WWUS20 KWNS 252303
SEL7
SPC WW 252303
LAZ000-CWZ000-252300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
503 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 737 ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST FOR PORTIONS OF

LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS

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KIWX [252247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 252247
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
546 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM SNOW BRONSON 41.87N 85.19W
11/25/2007 M1.0 INCH BRANCH MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00076

$$

LMK

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KFWD [252220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 252220
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
419 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0416 PM SNOW CISCO 32.38N 98.98W
11/25/2007 E1.00 INCH EASTLAND TX NWS EMPLOYEE

ESTIMATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES IN
CISCO.

$$

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KLCH [252153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 252153
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 38 SSW RUTHERFORD BEACH 29.24N 93.30W
11/25/2007 M55 MPH GMZ470 XX PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 205.

&&

$$

MOGGED

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KDVN [252150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 252150
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
350 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM SNOW GALVA 41.17N 90.04W
11/25/2007 M0.6 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW HAS STOPPED.

&&

$$

BILLN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2165

ACUS11 KWNS 252135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252134
LAZ000-MSZ000-252300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 737...

VALID 252134Z - 252300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 737 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z OVER SERN LA. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEWD
INTO SWRN MS ALONG THE LA/MS BORDER...AND THESE MAY POSE AT LEAST A
MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NWD TO NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WWD TO
JUST SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE...TO NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF
LAKE CHARLES. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT SO FAR THE OVERALL CHARACTER OF THE STORMS HAS NOT BEEN
PARTICULARLY ROBUST DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
NEVERTHELESS...HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WITH
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD THROUGH LA
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE SWRN MS/SERN
LA BORDER. THESE STORMS APPEAR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF WARM
FRONT...BUT MAY BE BASED CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO POSE A LEAST
A MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO.

.DIAL.. 11/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

31068979 30678932 29788948 29358977 29299045 29519112
29739181 29809236 30319242 30749214 31149095

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KDVN [252053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 252053
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
253 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0252 PM SNOW 2 NW KEWANEE 41.26N 89.96W
11/25/2007 M0.5 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW HAS NOW STOPPED.

&&

$$

MIKEZ

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KDVN [252029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 252029
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
229 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 PM SNOW MC NABB 41.18N 89.21W
11/25/2007 M0.3 INCH PUTNAM IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW HAS NOW CHANGED TO SLEET.

&&

$$

MIKEZ

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KLCH [252002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 252002
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0159 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 77 S BURNS POINT 28.47N 91.39W
11/25/2007 M44 MPH GMZ475 XX PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND BLOCK 258.

&&

$$

MOGGED

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KDVN [251952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251952
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
152 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0149 PM SNOW MONMOUTH 40.91N 90.64W
11/25/2007 M0.5 INCH WARREN IL TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW HAS STOPPED.

&&

$$

12

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KDVN [251919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251919
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
119 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM SNOW KEWANEE 41.24N 89.93W
11/25/2007 E0.0 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

MODERATE SNOW STARTING TO DUST GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES.

&&

$$

12

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KDVN [251916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251916
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
116 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0112 PM SNOW 3 S DALLAS CITY 40.59N 91.16W
11/25/2007 M0.2 INCH HANCOCK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON GRAVEL
DRIVEWAY. SNOW HAS STOPPED.

&&

$$

12

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2164

ACUS11 KWNS 251908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251907
LAZ000-252100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 737...

VALID 251907Z - 252100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 737 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVER
SRN LA NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND VERY SLOWLY NWD
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NWD AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF THE
FL PANHANDLE WWD TO JUST S OF BATON ROUGE...TO NEAR LAFAYETTE...TO A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SE OF LAKE CHARLES. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE
LOW THROUGH THE WRN GULF. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEP ASCENT AND ARE SPREADING NEWD THROUGH THE
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN LA. OTHER SUPERCELL STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SERN LA AND WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SRN LAFORCHE PARISH. THE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ALONG AND S
OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EWD THROUGH LA
NEXT FEW HOURS.

.DIAL.. 11/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

29528964 29039066 29699179 29629284 30159295 30459170
30168942

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KDVN [251900]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251900
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
100 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM SNOW GOOD HOPE 40.56N 90.67W
11/25/2007 E0.0 INCH MCDONOUGH IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW OF AT LEAST MODERATE INTENSITY STARTING TO COVER
GRASSY AND EXPOSED SURFACES.

&&

$$

12

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KDVN [251847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251847
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 PM SNOW 3 S DALLAS CITY 40.59N 91.16W
11/25/2007 E0.0 INCH HANCOCK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE FLAKES STARTING TO COVER GRASSY AND EXPOSED
SURFACES.

&&

$$

12

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KDVN [251834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 251834
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1234 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 PM SNOW 5 S MACOMB 40.40N 90.68W
11/25/2007 E0.0 INCH MCDONOUGH IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW REPORTED TO BE REDUCING VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE
AND PRODUCING A WET DUSTING ON THE FIELDS.

&&

$$

12

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KLCH [251756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLCH 251756
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0836 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 25 S PECAN ISLAND 29.28N 92.45W
11/25/2007 E40.00 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

PLATFORM VERMILLION 78 REPORTED ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 40
MPH.

0932 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 25 SE PECAN ISLAND 29.38N 92.17W
11/25/2007 M42.00 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

PLATFORM VERMILLION 51 REPORTED MEASURED WIND GUST TO 42
MPH.

&&

$$

SNAVELY

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KEPZ [251740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 251740
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1039 AM MST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 AM SNOW EL PASO 31.85N 106.44W
11/25/2007 M8.0 INCH EL PASO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

FORMER NWS EMPLOYEE IN NORTHEAST

1018 AM SNOW MONTANA VISTA 31.84N 106.18W
11/25/2007 M7.0 INCH EL PASO TX NWS EMPLOYEE

1018 AM SNOW EL PASO 31.85N 106.44W
11/25/2007 M7.0 INCH EL PASO TX NWS EMPLOYEE

LOCATED IN NORTHEAST

1018 AM SNOW EL PASO 31.85N 106.44W
11/25/2007 M5.5 INCH EL PASO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

LOCATED IN NORTHEAST

1018 AM SNOW CLOUDCROFT 32.95N 105.74W
11/25/2007 M9.0 INCH OTERO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1018 AM SNOW EL PASO 31.85N 106.44W
11/25/2007 M7.7 INCH EL PASO TX OTHER FEDERAL

SNOWFALL AT EL PASO AIRPORT

1018 AM SNOW SANTA TERESA 31.87N 106.64W
11/25/2007 M1.4 INCH DONA ANA NM NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS OFFICE IN SANTA TERESA

1018 AM SNOW SIERRA BLANCA 31.17N 105.36W
11/25/2007 E5.0 INCH HUDSPETH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

ADAIR

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251734
SWODY2
SPC AC 251732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL...THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SW GA...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC AND FAR
ERN SC...

..LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS TONIGHT WILL OPEN AND LIFT ENEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. MODELS FORECAST A WELL-DEVELOPED REAR INFLOW JET BEHIND
THE FRONT WHICH COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A SQUALL-LINE ACROSS
SRN AL EXTENDING SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA
DURING THE MORNING. 15Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE FL PANHANDLE SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB
WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE. HOWEVER...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY
FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MODEL FORECASTS ALSO WEAKEN THE REAR INFLOW
JET AROUND MIDDAY SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH
TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON.

..ERN CAROLINAS...
SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS AN OPEN WAVE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE REGION LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE
INLAND ACROSS ERN NC WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. LIFT
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET INFLUENCES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING BY EVENING AS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ORGANIZES FURTHER WEST. 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS ERN NC EARLY MONDAY EVENING SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS
SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT ISOLATED.

.BROYLES.. 11/25/2007

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KLCH [251713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 251713
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1112 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0932 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 25 SE PECAN ISLAND 29.38N 92.17W
11/25/2007 M42 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

PLATFORM VERMILLION 51 REPORTED MEASURED WIND GUST TO 42
MPH.

&&

$$

SNAVELY

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KLCH [251653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 251653
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1053 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0836 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 25 S PECAN ISLAND 29.28N 92.45W
11/25/2007 E40 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

PLATFORM VERMILLION 78 REPORTED ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 40
MPH.

&&

$$

SNAVELY

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 737

WWUS20 KWNS 251629
SEL7
SPC WW 251629
LAZ000-CWZ000-252300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1030 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SRN LA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER TX...AND A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD SW LA. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHERE SUPERCELLS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

..THOMPSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251611
SWODY1
SPC AC 251609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL GULF COAST...

..N CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE BIG BEND REGION IS BEGINNING TO
TURN NEWD...AND IS FORECAST TO REACH SE OK BY EARLY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW JUST OFF THE SW LA COAST WILL DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS
LA TOWARD MEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES EWD ACROSS LA/MS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. E AND SE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF AND N FL
WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS SRN LA/MS TODAY...AND INTO SRN AL/GA LATER
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT AREA WILL BE NEAR THIS
WARM FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW 67-70 F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE S OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
RADAR MOSAICS REVEAL WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN SPREADING NEWD ACROSS LA
TOWARD MS...AND INLAND PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR MAY BE
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-10 DURING THE DAY IN LA/MS.
OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SBCAPE MAY REACH
1000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT...THOUGH LARGER VALUES
APPEAR UNLIKELY GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF CLOUDS AND RATHER MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS LA/MS
TODAY...SPREADING EWD INTO AL TONIGHT. INLAND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO MODULATE THE SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE PROBABLE AREAS REMAINING CLOSER TO THE COAST
ACROSS SW AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS...IN THE
PRESENCE OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND MOIST PROFILES...APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT. WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED FARTHER S IN THE OPEN WARM
SECTOR...AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FARTHER N OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES BOTH TODAY WITH THE
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...AND INTO TONIGHT WITH A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 11/25/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2163

ACUS11 KWNS 251537
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251536
LAZ000-251800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251536Z - 251800Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER S CNTRL AND
SERN LA...GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF AN I-10 TO I-12 CORRIDOR. TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE CNTRL THROUGH NWRN
GULF COAST AND INTO EXTREME SERN LA TO A SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST OF SWRN LA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE
WRN GULF. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER LA TODAY WITHIN
ZONE OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX ROTATING NEWD AROUND UPPER LOW OVER TX. A
40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WARM FRONT MOVING FARTHER INLAND...WITH THE MOIST WARM SECTOR
ADVANCING TO NEAR THE I-10 TO I-12 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS...BUT THE NWD ADVECTION OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG OVER SERN LA. STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR
ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP SHEAR ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS WELL AS BOWING STRUCTURES.

.DIAL.. 11/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

29788954 29109055 29509134 29599263 30059250 30369028

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251233
SWODY1
SPC AC 251230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

..LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE
TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH EJECTING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS TX...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW OFF THE SWRN LA COAST DEVELOPING NEWD
TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SPREADING INLAND ACROSS LA INTO CENTRAL MS AND
MUCH OF SWRN/WRN AL. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED SURFACE
HEATING WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SRN LA INTO FAR SRN
MS/SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE.

TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITHIN PLUME OF DEEP
ASCENT FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NERN TX. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR AND INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED.
ALTHOUGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM SECTOR EXPANDS N/NEWD AND MODEST SURFACE
HEATING OCCURS ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA AND INTO PARTS OF SRN MS TO FAR
SWRN AL. DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INTO MONDAY MORNING SPREADING EWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF
EXPECTED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN WARM SECTOR INDICATE THAT BOTH LOW-LEVEL
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES
AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES BY
LATER TODAY /ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK/. HOWEVER... FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATER TORNADO THREAT IS THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WHERE A MOIST...UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COEXIST WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

.EVANS/CROSBIE.. 11/25/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250816
SWOD48
SPC AC 250815

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

..DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING THAT NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN
STATES WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS ON DAY 4 /WED NOV
28/ AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 5 /THU NOV
29/. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED DUE TO PREVIOUS FRONTAL
INTRUSION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE IS EXPECTED.

THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION IN DEPICTING THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON DAY 8 /SUN DEC
2/ WITH A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING SEWD TOWARD THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF AND
UKMET SUGGEST A LESS PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO WITH A MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO LOWER CO
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AIR MASS AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

.MEAD.. 11/25/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250659
SWODY3
SPC AC 250657

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

AMPLIFICATION TO LONG WAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY THREE
PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL
ROCKIES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO NRN ROCKIES WILL PUSH SWD INTO THE MIDWEST WWD INTO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS WEAKENING FRONT OVER FL WILL BE
MOIST...HOWEVER POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN COOL AND QUITE DRY AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVING
SWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH NO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FORECAST.

.MEAD.. 11/25/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250556
SWODY2
SPC AC 250555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN GULF
COAST...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR NERN SC...ERN NC AND
SERN VA...

..SYNOPSIS...

DYNAMIC MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE ARKLATEX IS FORECAST TO
DEAMPLIFY WHILE RAPIDLY TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY...CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER WRN
KY WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY MONDAY
EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 27/12Z. MEANWHILE... TRAILING COLD
FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SWD INTO WRN AL WILL
PUSH EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY EVENING AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD.

..NERN GULF COAST...

A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING
OVER WRN AL WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG...DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE THIS
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE SRN
AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS...SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD
FRONT SHOULD SUSTAIN TSTM LINE EWD INTO GA AND THE ERN FL PNHDL BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK WARM SECTOR LAPSE RATES /I.E. NEAR
MOIST ADIABATIC/...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-45 KT OF DEEP...SWLY SHEAR...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE THEREAFTER AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT BEGIN TO VEER.
AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND STORM
INTENSITY MAY TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT
BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY EVENING.

..CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA...

STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL ERODE OR
FORCE A RAPID RETREAT OF WEDGE FRONT WITH DEWPOINT INCREASING
THROUGH THE 60S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT ONGOING...PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS WILL
INTENSIFY MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT AS SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT
FALL CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS
WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.

IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK OVER
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE TOWARD THE COAST WHERE RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING
500-700 J/KG. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE N/NE EXTENT THAT
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SERN VA.

WIND FIELDS...BOTH IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...WILL
BE QUITE STRONG AND THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
AND BOWING STRUCTURES DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD GIVEN FORECAST
STORM MOTIONS OF 40-50 KT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME
SUSTAINED.

.MEAD.. 11/25/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250552
SWODY1
SPC AC 250550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

..SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY-TILTED...STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER
THE TX BIG BEND REGION AT 12Z TODAY...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NEUTRALLY ORIENTED AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD ERN OK/AR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE UPPER TX/SW LA COAST WILL MOVE NNEWD REACHING
NERN LA BY THIS EVENING /26/00Z/...AND THEN TRACK MORE QUICKLY NNEWD
INTO WRN KY BY 12Z MONDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE MS/AL
BORDER AREA BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN...AND THUS INHIBIT WARM SECTOR FROM MAKING
MUCH INLAND MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

..LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING TX BIG BEND UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SPREADING INLAND ACROSS LA INTO CENTRAL MS AND
MUCH OF SWRN/WRN AL. LIMITED SURFACE HEATING TODAY AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SRN LA INTO SERN MS/FAR
SWRN AL WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

AT 12Z TODAY...TSTMS /MOSTLY ELEVATED/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
WITHIN STRONG WAA REGIME FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TX COAST...WITH SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY OVER THE NWRN GULF IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE BASED TSTMS OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE LIKELY WITH TIME AS THE WARM
SECTOR EXPANDS N/NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST MODEL
DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SPREAD INLAND ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN LA AND INTO PARTS OF SRN MS TO FAR SWRN AL.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN WARM SECTOR INDICATE THAT BOTH LOW-LEVEL
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES
AND SUPERCELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

AS INDICATED IN EARLIER OUTLOOKS...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-20 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/
SERN LA INTO SRN MS WHERE A MOIST...UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
COEXIST WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP LAYER ASCENT
SPREADING EWD WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND
MOVING THROUGH MS/SERN LA INTO WRN AL. THE TORNADO THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO SERN MS/SWRN AL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE GREATEST IN VICINITY OF WARM
FRONT.

.PETERS/CROSBIE.. 11/25/2007

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