KMFL [030331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KMFL 030331
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1131 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 PM HEAVY RAIN PINECREST 25.66N 80.30W
10/02/2013 M9.05 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

MEASURED NEAR 63RD AVENUE AT SW 120TH STREET.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300231

$$

KONARIK

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KMFL [030329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 030329
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1129 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 PM HEAVY RAIN PINECREST 25.66N 80.30W
10/02/2013 E9.05 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

MEASURED NEAR 63RD AVENUE AT SW 120TH STREET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300231

$$

KONARIK

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KMFL [030314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 030314
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1114 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM FLOOD 1 SE CORAL GABLES 25.72N 80.25W
10/02/2013 MIAMI-DADE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER COVERING AND MAKING NEARLY IMPASSIBLE PORTIONS OF
MAIN AND INGRAHAM HIGHWAYS NEAR 37TH AVENUE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300230

$$

KONARIK

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KGID [030235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 030235
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
935 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HAIL 4 NNE WOLBACH 41.45N 98.36W
10/02/2013 E0.88 INCH GREELEY NE PUBLIC

HEAVY RAIN WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL MIXED IN.

0455 PM HAIL 5 NNE WOLBACH 41.47N 98.35W
10/02/2013 E1.00 INCH GREELEY NE PUBLIC

HEAVY RAIN WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL

0535 PM HAIL 4 S GREELEY 41.49N 98.53W
10/02/2013 M1.75 INCH GREELEY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN WITH MOSTLY HAIL...GOLF BALLS AND QUARTERS.

0628 PM HAIL 5 NE SCOTIA 41.52N 98.63W
10/02/2013 E1.50 INCH GREELEY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL WITH RAIN MIXED IN.

0736 PM HAIL 6 NW ELBA 41.35N 98.65W
10/02/2013 E1.50 INCH HOWARD NE TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER TO PING PONG SIZED HAIL. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES. MEASURED 1 INCH OF RAIN SO FAR THIS EVENING.

0743 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 N WOLBACH 41.46N 98.39W
10/02/2013 GREELEY NE FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

CREEKS RUNNING FULL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GREELEY COUNTY.
WATER RUNNING ACROSS MANY COUNTY ROADS. ONE COUNTY
ROAD...THAT THEY KNOW OF SO FAR...WAS IMPASSABLE AND HAD
TO BE CLOSED DUE TO WATER.

0820 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNE WOLBACH 41.45N 98.36W
10/02/2013 E5.00 INCH GREELEY NE PUBLIC

A LITTLE OVER 5 INCHES MEASURED IN RAIN GAUGE THIS
EVENING.


&&

$$

PBEDA

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KMFL [030229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 030229
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1029 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N KENDALL 25.71N 80.32W
10/02/2013 M7.71 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A LOCAL HAM OPERATOR RECORDED 7.71 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
HIS RAIN GUAGE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SUNSET DR. AND
97TH AVE. SINCE 2 PM EDT WITH SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THE
AREA.


&&

$$

BRABANDER

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KMFL [030224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 030224
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1024 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SE KENDALL 25.66N 80.30W
10/02/2013 MIAMI-DADE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

FLASH FLOODING IN THE OAK RIDGE RESIDENTIAL COMMUNITY
REPORTED WATER INTRUSION INTO A VEHICLE CAUSED A TOTAL
LOSS OF THE CAR. RESIDENTS HAVE MOVED CARS TO THE SIDE
STREETS TO AVOID FURTHER DAMAGE.


&&

$$

BRABANDER

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KMFL [030219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 030219
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1019 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0601 PM LIGHTNING 1 N KENDALL 25.69N 80.32W
10/02/2013 MIAMI-DADE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

MIAMI-DADE FIRE RECEIVED A CALL OF A HOUSE FIRE NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF N KENDALL DR. AND SW 97TH AVE. THE FIRE
SEVERELY DAMAGED THE HOME AND CAUSED THE DEATH OF A
FAMILY PET.


&&

$$

BRABANDER

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KOAX [030215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 030215
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
914 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN OAKDALE 42.07N 97.97W
10/02/2013 M4.10 INCH ANTELOPE NE COCORAHS

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN NELIGH 42.13N 98.03W
10/02/2013 M6.33 INCH ANTELOPE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

RAIN FELL BETWEEN 530 AND 900 PM.

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN NELIGH 42.13N 98.03W
10/02/2013 M6.60 INCH ANTELOPE NE PUBLIC


&&

$$

LANDSVORK

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 030208
FFGMPD
NEZ000-030807-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0266
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1007 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL NE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 030207Z - 030807Z

SUMMARY...A GROWING AREA OF BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3" AN HOUR SHOULD
PRODUCE REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NE IS COMBINING WITH LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF
30+ KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG, PER RECENT VAD WIND
PROFILES AND 12Z ARW GUIDANCE, TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF GROWING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.5 INCHES IN THE AREA ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY
OCTOBER. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE 2-3" AN HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS PICKING UP 5-10 INCHES ALREADY
PER RADAR ESTIMATES FROM NSSL AND PURELY DERIVED FROM RADAR
IMAGERY.

THE 23Z RAP INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, NOT FALLING OFF UNTIL AROUND 08Z, WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE BACKBUILDING PROCESS FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL
HOURS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 09Z PER THE 18Z GFS GUIDANCE. RECENT MOTION OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE 23Z HRRR SHOWS
STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGION
UNTIL 08Z AS WELL. AS SUCH, BELIEVE FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN
THIS REGION THROUGH 08Z.

ROTH

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON 41349978 41729814 41369719 40539832 40500021 41349978

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KIWX [030134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KIWX 030134
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
934 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 SE KINGSFORD HEIGHTS 41.46N 86.66W
10/02/2013 LA PORTE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE REPORTS RECEIVED OF A FUNNEL CLOUD WHICH MAY
HAVE TOUCHED DOWN BRIEFLY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS FOUND NO DAMAGE OR EVIDENCE THAT THE FUNNEL
HAD TOUCHED DOWN.


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

$$

BENTLEY

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KMFL [030129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 030129
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
929 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N PERRINE 25.65N 80.34W
10/02/2013 MIAMI-DADE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

WATER HAS ENTERED STRUCTURES IN THE VILLAGE AT THE
FALLS CONDO DEVELOPMENT.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300229

$$

CARACOZZA

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KGID [030125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 030125
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
825 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNE WOLBACH 41.45N 98.36W
10/02/2013 E5.00 INCH GREELEY NE PUBLIC

A LITTLE OVER 5 INCHES MEASURED IN RAIN GAUGE THIS
EVENING.


&&

$$

PBEDA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030059
SWODY1
SPC AC 030057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

MULTICELL STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
FROM SRN MN SWWD THROUGH ERN NEB. EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW THESE
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
/1000-1500 J/KG/ MLCAPE...7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR. SFC BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER...SOME SWWD BACKBUILDING INTO SCNTRL
NEB AND NWRN KS MIGHT OCCUR AS STRENGTHENING LLJ INTERACTS WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY STORMS ON SRN END OF
THE LINE. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.
DUE TO THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

..DIAL.. 10/03/2013

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KGID [030045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 030045
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
744 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0743 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 N WOLBACH 41.46N 98.39W
10/02/2013 GREELEY NE FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

CREEKS RUNNING FULL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GREELEY COUNTY.
WATER RUNNING ACROSS MANY COUNTY ROADS. ONE COUNTY
ROAD...THAT THEY KNOW OF SO FAR...WAS IMPASSABLE AND HAD
TO BE CLOSED DUE TO WATER.


&&

$$

BRYANT

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KGID [030042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 030042
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
742 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 PM HAIL 6 NW ELBA 41.35N 98.65W
10/02/2013 E1.50 INCH HOWARD NE TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER TO PING PONG SIZED HAIL. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES. MEASURED 1 INCH OF RAIN SO FAR THIS EVENING.


&&

$$

PBEDA

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KFSD [030036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 030036
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
735 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM HAIL WORTHINGTON 43.63N 95.60W
10/02/2013 E1.00 INCH NOBLES MN LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

PS

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KOAX [030012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 030012
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
712 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 PM FLASH FLOOD NELIGH 42.13N 98.03W
10/02/2013 ANTELOPE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING ACROSS HIGHWAYS 275 ON WEST EDGE OF TOWN AND 14
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN ALONG WITH A FEW OTHER ROADS.

0709 PM HEAVY RAIN NELIGH 42.13N 98.03W
10/02/2013 M4.00 INCH ANTELOPE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

OFFICER MEASURED AROUND 4 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE
OF TOWN FROM THE STORM THROUGH 7 PM.


&&

$$

RCHERMOK

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KIWX [022355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 022355
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 SE KINGSFORD HEIGHTS 41.46N 86.66W
10/02/2013 LA PORTE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE REPORTS RECEIVED OF A FUNNEL CLOUD WHICH MAY
HAVE TOUCHED DOWN BRIEFLY.


&&

$$

BENTLEY

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KGID [022344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 022344
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
644 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 PM HAIL 5 NE SCOTIA 41.52N 98.63W
10/02/2013 E1.50 INCH GREELEY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL WITH RAIN MIXED IN.


&&

$$

PBEDA

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KMFL [022338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 022338
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM FLOOD 2 N PERRINE 25.64N 80.34W
10/02/2013 MIAMI-DADE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SW 136 ST IN THE FALLS BETWEEN 92ND AVE AND 97TH AVE
HAVE BEEN FLOODED. ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE AND SEVERAL CARS
HAVE BEEN FLOODED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300228

$$

CARACOZZA

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KFSD [022305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 022305
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
605 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0553 PM HAIL HERON LAKE 43.80N 95.32W
10/02/2013 E1.00 INCH JACKSON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0553 PM HAIL 4 S HERON LAKE 43.74N 95.32W
10/02/2013 E1.00 INCH JACKSON MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CHENARD

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KGID [022245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 022245
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM HAIL 4 S GREELEY 41.49N 98.53W
10/02/2013 M1.75 INCH GREELEY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN WITH MOSTLY HAIL...GOLF BALLS AND QUARTERS.


&&

$$

PBEDA

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KFSD [022241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 022241
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
541 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 PM HAIL WORTHINGTON 43.63N 95.60W
10/02/2013 E1.75 INCH NOBLES MN LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

CHENARD

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KFSD [022226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 022226
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 4 NE WORTHINGTON 43.67N 95.54W
10/02/2013 E1.00 INCH NOBLES MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CHENARD

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KGID [022221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 022221
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
521 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HAIL 5 NNE WOLBACH 41.47N 98.35W
10/02/2013 E1.00 INCH GREELEY NE PUBLIC

HEAVY RAIN WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL


&&

$$

PBEDA

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KGID [022217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 022217
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
517 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HAIL 4 NNE WOLBACH 41.45N 98.36W
10/02/2013 E0.88 INCH GREELEY NE PUBLIC

HEAVY RAIN WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL MIXED IN.


&&

$$

PBEDA

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KFSD [022205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 022205
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
505 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 1 SW ROUND LAKE 43.53N 95.48W
10/02/2013 E0.88 INCH NOBLES MN PUBLIC


&&

$$

CHENARD

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KOAX [022158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 022158
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
458 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL 1 S OAKDALE 42.06N 97.97W
10/02/2013 M1.00 INCH ANTELOPE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0435 PM HAIL OAKDALE 42.07N 97.97W
10/02/2013 M1.50 INCH ANTELOPE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

1.05 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES. HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND.


&&

$$

LANDSVORK

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KLBF [022158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 022158
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
458 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0456 PM HAIL 10 NE BARTLETT 41.99N 98.41W
10/02/2013 M1.00 INCH WHEELER NE PUBLIC

MOST STONES WERE THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND DIMES.


&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KFSD [022158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 022158
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
458 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0449 PM HAIL 7 W WAKEFIELD 42.27N 97.00W
10/02/2013 E0.50 INCH DIXON NE PUBLIC

GUSTY WINDS TOO.


&&

$$

CHENARD

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KFSD [022157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 022157
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
457 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0448 PM HAIL ROUND LAKE 43.54N 95.47W
10/02/2013 E0.50 INCH NOBLES MN PUBLIC


&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

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KFSD [022154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 022154
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
454 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0439 PM HAIL 3 SSE LAKE PARK 43.41N 95.30W
10/02/2013 E0.88 INCH DICKINSON IA EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

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KOAX [022136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 022136
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
436 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL OAKDALE 42.07N 97.97W
10/02/2013 M1.00 INCH ANTELOPE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

STARTED OUT AS DIME SIZE.IS 1 INCH NOW AND IS STILL
GETTING BIGGER. HAIL IS COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

LANDSVORK

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KMFL [022119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 022119
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
519 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM FLOOD 2 N PERRINE 25.64N 80.34W
10/02/2013 MIAMI-DADE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING WAS REPORTED ALONG SOUTHWEST 136TH ST IN THE
FALLS AREA. STREETS WERE NEARLY IMPASSABLE AND THE FALLS
SHOPPING CENTER PARKING LOT WAS ALMOST COMPLETLY
UNDERWATER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300227

$$

CARACOZZA

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KLZK [022059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 022059
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
359 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0243 PM TSTM WND DMG WRIGHT 34.43N 92.07W
10/02/2013 JEFFERSON AR AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE TREE DOWN ON STATE HIGHWAY 256 IN THE WRIGHT
COMMUNITY.


&&

$$

225

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KSEW [022041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 022041
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
141 PM PDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM WATER SPOUT W WESTPORT 46.89N 124.11W
10/02/2013 GRAYS HARBOR WA PUBLIC

PUBLIC SIGHTED WATERSPOUT ABOUT A QUARTER MILE OFF THE
COAST BETWEEN WESTPORT AND GRAYLAND AROUND 1235 PM. THE
SPOUT LASTED ABOUT 25 MINUTES...STAYED MOSTLY
STATIONARY...AND NEVER CAME ONSHORE.


&&

$$

GRUB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1921

ACUS11 KWNS 021959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021959
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-022100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SWRN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021959Z - 022100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME...WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. WITH THE THREAT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...AS A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- VISIBLE ATTM IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE ERN NEB
VICINITY -- CONTINUES SHIFTING SLOWLY NEWD. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE
A BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS.

STORMS ACROSS NERN SD AND ADJACENT SERN ND/WRN MN REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...BUT HAVE BECOME MORE NEARLY SURFACE BASED SWD INTO NERN
NEB. OVERALL HOWEVER...SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATION REMAINS ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CELLS -- AND WITH TIME THE FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS. THUS...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW-END AND RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 10/02/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 46249577 45589492 43749576 41769696 40749897 41039990
41679981 43449825 45239811 45959688 46249577

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021956
SWODY1
SPC AC 021953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MO VALLEY...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH MINOR CHANGES TO
OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES. IN ADDITION TO A FEW ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL
STORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY...MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY FROM SERN SD INTO SWRN NEB. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
TO ORGANIZED SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS.. 10/02/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM THE PAC NW COAST TO THE NRN GREAT BASIN.
DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ENEWD TODAY FROM
WRN KS TO SE NEB. A SEPARATE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL DRIFT NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TOWARD TN/KY...WITH PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY WITHIN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

...CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WRN STATES...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S NWD
FROM OK/KS TO NEB/SE SD BY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SEWD FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB/SE SD BY THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE FRONT. WEAK
LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...SHOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEB
TO SE SD/SW MN. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH PRIMARILY MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINE
SEGMENTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

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KABR [021953]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 021953
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
253 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0238 PM HAIL 3 SW SUMMIT 45.27N 97.08W
10/02/2013 E1.00 INCH GRANT SD PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300827

$$

FOWLE

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KABR [021949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 021949
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
249 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0248 PM HAIL 4 W SUMMIT 45.29N 97.12W
10/02/2013 E1.00 INCH GRANT SD PUBLIC

BIGGEST STONES WERE QUARTER SIZED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300826

$$

FOWLE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021726
SWODY2
SPC AC 021724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG AND REACH THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO SRN ROCKIES BY FRI MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE...A TRIPLE-POINT CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED INVOF
N-CNTRL KS ON THU AFTERNOON. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
NEWD INTO SRN MN WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM LATE D1/EARLY D2
CONVECTION S OF THE FRONT IN IA. A DRYLINE WILL BE ANCHORED S/SWWD
ACROSS WRN OK/TX.

...MID-MO VALLEY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU
WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME NE OF A SWLY LLJ OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...AMPLE SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A RICHLY MOIST WRN GULF AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS.
MODERATE TO STRONG SWLYS BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL MAINTAIN A CAPPING
INVERSION WITH ADVECTION OF AN EML PLUME. THIS SHOULD YIELD MODERATE
TO STRONG POTENTIAL BUOYANCY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE REACHING
2000-3000 J/KG.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEGREE OF STORM COVERAGE INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX
EJECTING ACROSS SERN CO TO NRN KS. THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED STORMS
FORMING INVOF ERN NEB...WHERE WIND PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS SHOULD FORM WITH ERN EXTENT INTO IA AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES
DURING THE EVENING. FRONTAL ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY QUICK UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS WITH A PREDOMINANT MIXED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK.
FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE...A DISCRETE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WILL
EXIST...BUT NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CAPPING CONCERNS RENDER
LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

..GRAMS.. 10/02/2013

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KHGX [021719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 021719
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1219 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 W ALDINE 29.91N 95.41W
10/02/2013 HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300186

$$

42

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021630
SWODY1
SPC AC 021627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM THE PAC NW COAST TO THE NRN GREAT BASIN.
DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ENEWD TODAY FROM
WRN KS TO SE NEB. A SEPARATE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL DRIFT NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TOWARD TN/KY...WITH PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY WITHIN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

...CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WRN STATES...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S NWD
FROM OK/KS TO NEB/SE SD BY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SEWD FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB/SE SD BY THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE FRONT. WEAK
LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...SHOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEB
TO SE SD/SW MN. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH PRIMARILY MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINE
SEGMENTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 10/02/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021236
SWODY1
SPC AC 021233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS
FROM THE NERN PACIFIC INTO THE BASE OF AN EVOLVING TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MERGE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST
ALONG THE WRN EXTENSION OF THESE BOUNDARIES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED BY AFTERNOON FROM
NEAR THE CO-KS BORDER INTO WRN TX.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST
AIR MASS FROM KS SWD WHERE PW VALUES EXCEEDED AN INCH AND LOWEST
100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS RANGED FROM 11-15+ G/KG. THE PRESENCE OF
A SLY LLJ /25-35 KT AT 850 MB/ WILL ENHANCE THE NWD FLUX OF THIS
MOISTURE BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...
CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-2500 J/KG.

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CNTRL PLAINS VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL ADVANCE NEWD
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY...LIKELY
FOSTERING INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA. CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
SUPPORT SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO SWRN
NEB BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
PROMOTE VIGOROUS UP/DOWNDRAFTS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES
OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL FAVOR PULSE AND SOME MULTICELL STORM
STRUCTURES.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 10/02/2013

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020800
SWOD48
SPC AC 020759

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY EXIST ON FRI/D3...AND CONTINUE TO GROW
INTO THE SAT/D4 AND BEYOND PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUGGESTING COLD FRONTAL POSITION FROM
LACROSSE WI TO ST. LOUIS MO TO TEXARKANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO WRN
LOWER MI SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

REGARDLESS OF SCENARIO...INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
NOT BE STRONG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THEREFORE...A LINEAR STORM MODE
WOULD APPEAR MOST PROBABLE...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS MILWAUKEE...CHICAGO...AND ST. LOUIS COULD
EXPERIENCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO
LOW FOR ANY AREAS...AND INCREASES FURTHER BEYOND THE D4 PERIOD.

..JEWELL.. 10/02/2013

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB...IA...SRN
MN...WRN WI...AND ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE E OF A CNTRL PLAINS
DRYLINE AND S OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL LIE FROM NERN NEB
INTO SRN MN AND CNTRL WI. LOW PRESSURE OVER KS/NEB WILL TRAVEL NEWD
ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO TIMING OF THIS
TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...THE AREA FROM ERN NEBRASKA INTO IA...SRN MN...AND WRN WI
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WHETHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

...ERN NEB/SD INTO IA...SRN MN...WRN WI...
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER SERN NEB INTO
IA DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW TRACK ALONG THE STATIONARY/WARM
FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB...NRN IA...AND SRN MN. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW
TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ACROSS WI AS WELL...PERHAPS AS A LINE.

...ERN KS...OK...WRN MO...
A SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW. MODELS DIFFER AS TO LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE FASTER
SOLUTION IS GENERALLY PREFERRED WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO NWRN
TX...WRN OK AND NERN KS BY 00Z. STRONG FORCING ON THIS FRONT AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE. GIVEN THE FAST MOTION OF
THE FRONT...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE
WITH EARLY ACTIVITY WHICH COULD EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS
BEFORE GETTING UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT.

..JEWELL.. 10/02/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020602
SWODY1
SPC AC 020600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH/JET
STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN. A WARM FRONT WILL
ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...WHILE A
COLD FRONT SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND A SHARPENING DRYLINE
WITHIN A NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
ESTABLISHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WARM FRONT/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE PRESENCE OF
BROAD/SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SUFFICIENT
HEATING/MASS CONVERGENCE NEAR ONE OR MORE WEAK SURFACE LOWS AND MORE
SO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE
BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH STORMS
BACKBUILDING/EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS A LOW-LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY
INCREASES. SUCH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A GENERAL
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR INCLUDING SOUTHEAST
SD/NORTHWEST IA TO SOUTHWEST NEB.

ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /GENERALLY 20 KT DEEP LAYER/
WILL TEND TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
SEVERE RISK...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN
THAT THE COLD FRONT-PRECEDING AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE DEWPOINTS BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AS MUCH AS
1500-2250 J/KG OF MLCAPE. BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 10/02/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020532
SWODY2
SPC AC 020530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS COOLING
ALOFT AND STRONGER FLOW SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN
TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY S OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
INCREASING FORCING WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NEB AND IA.

...NEB INTO IA...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NERN NEB...ERN SD AND MN...IN A ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION ATOP THE SURFACE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BOTH INCREASE. MODELS INDICATE
AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BY 00Z ENHANCING
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL VEERING FOR SUPERCELLS...AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT...THEN PERHAPS AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS
CELLS MERGE INTO AN MCS.

DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. GIVEN A NEWD CELL MOTION...THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT CORRIDOR INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES AS
STORMS MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

..JEWELL.. 10/02/2013

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