DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030059
SWODY1
SPC AC 030057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

MULTICELL STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
FROM SRN MN SWWD THROUGH ERN NEB. EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW THESE
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
/1000-1500 J/KG/ MLCAPE...7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR. SFC BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER...SOME SWWD BACKBUILDING INTO SCNTRL
NEB AND NWRN KS MIGHT OCCUR AS STRENGTHENING LLJ INTERACTS WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY STORMS ON SRN END OF
THE LINE. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.
DUE TO THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

..DIAL.. 10/03/2013

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