MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0113

ACUS11 KWNS 190406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190406
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-190630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY THROUGH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 190406Z - 190630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD EWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KY AND PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER WRN KY. ACTIVITY IS INITIATING WITHIN ZONE OF
DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT FORCED BY A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION AND ITS ATTENDANT 40 KT SWLY LLJ.
A CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY /800-1000 J/KG/ MUCAPE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO SWRN KY WHERE THE LLJ HAS
ADVECTED RICHER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MIDDLE LEVEL-LAPSE RATES BUT
ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS MORE CAPPED
WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN...SO SRN EXTENT OF THE MORE
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...GLAZING
INFLUENCE OF ASCENT ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE CAP AND INITIATE STORMS INTO NRN PARTS OF
WRN AND MIDDLE TN. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED HAIL
GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS.

..DIAL/HART.. 02/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 37428787 37748607 37258535 36558547 35928612 35578724
35818826 36298886 36978880 37428787

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KDLH [190200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 190200
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
759 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0917 AM SNOW ELY 47.91N 91.85W
02/18/2014 E6.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED DUE TO WIND BLOWING SNOW OFF THE
BOARD


0900 AM SNOW 6 E ISLAND LAKE 47.02N 92.07W
02/18/2014 M3.8 INCH ST. LOUIS MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION ISLAND LAKE /ILIM5/


0900 AM SNOW 11 NNW WHYTE 47.59N 91.65W
02/18/2014 M4.0 INCH LAKE MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION ISABELLA 14W /IBLM5/


0900 AM SNOW SOLON SPRINGS 46.35N 91.82W
02/18/2014 M6.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI COOP OBSERVER



0900 AM SNOW 6 NE HERTEL 45.88N 92.10W
02/18/2014 M3.1 INCH BURNETT WI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION SPOONER 10.6 WNW /5765C/


0900 AM SNOW 6 WSW INO 46.49N 91.30W
02/18/2014 M3.2 INCH BAYFIELD WI COCORAHS



0843 AM SNOW 7 N MCGREGOR 46.71N 93.31W
02/18/2014 M4.5 INCH AITKIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

MONDAY STORM TOTAL.


0830 AM SNOW 12 N GRAND RAPIDS 47.40N 93.51W
02/18/2014 M4.5 INCH ITASCA MN COOP OBSERVER



0800 AM SNOW 1 WSW SAXON 46.49N 90.44W
02/18/2014 M3.4 INCH IRON WI COOP OBSERVER



0800 AM SNOW GORDON 46.24N 91.80W
02/18/2014 M4.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI COOP OBSERVER



0800 AM SNOW 2 SE SPOONER 45.80N 91.87W
02/18/2014 M2.8 INCH WASHBURN WI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION SARONA /SRAW3/


0800 AM SNOW 12 N ISLE 46.32N 93.50W
02/18/2014 M2.3 INCH AITKIN MN COOP OBSERVER



0800 AM SNOW 3 SSW BRUNO 46.24N 92.68W
02/18/2014 M3.3 INCH PINE MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION BRUNO 4S /BAKM5/


0800 AM SNOW UPSON 46.37N 90.41W
02/18/2014 M3.5 INCH IRON WI COOP OBSERVER



0800 AM SNOW 2 SW CROSSLAKE 46.67N 94.12W
02/18/2014 M5.0 INCH CROW WING MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION CROSS LAKE DAM /CRLM5/


0800 AM SNOW 1 N FEDERAL DAM 47.25N 94.22W
02/18/2014 M3.8 INCH CASS MN COOP OBSERVER

MESONET STATION FEDERAL DAM /FEDM5/


0730 AM SNOW 4 NE DULUTH 46.81N 92.06W
02/18/2014 M4.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN COCORAHS



0703 AM SNOW 3 E FINLAND 47.41N 91.18W
02/18/2014 M3.2 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL FROM MONDAY


0703 AM SNOW SILVER BAY 47.29N 91.28W
02/18/2014 M3.5 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL FROM MONDAY


0700 AM SNOW 2 WNW SHESHEBEE 46.71N 93.29W
02/18/2014 M2.9 INCH AITKIN MN COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION 2 W SHESHEBEE /3078B/


0700 AM SNOW NORTHOME 47.84N 94.26W
02/18/2014 M2.6 INCH ITASCA MN COOP OBSERVER



0700 AM SNOW 8 SE SPRINGBROOK 45.86N 91.58W
02/18/2014 M2.4 INCH WASHBURN WI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION 2 WNW STONE LAKE /4228O/


0700 AM SNOW 3 NNE FINLAND 47.45N 91.22W
02/18/2014 M3.2 INCH LAKE MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION WOLF RIDGE /WLFM5/


0700 AM SNOW 2 W BARNUM 46.51N 92.74W
02/18/2014 M2.4 INCH CARLTON MN COCORAHS



0700 AM SNOW LITTLE MARAIS 47.41N 91.11W
02/18/2014 M3.5 INCH LAKE MN COCORAHS



0700 AM SNOW 5 N BABBITT 47.71N 91.95W
02/18/2014 M6.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION BABBITT /BABM5/


0700 AM SNOW 2 N TWO HARBORS 47.07N 91.68W
02/18/2014 M4.4 INCH LAKE MN COCORAHS



0700 AM SNOW 4 ENE ALGER 47.17N 91.62W
02/18/2014 M4.6 INCH LAKE MN COCORAHS



0700 AM SNOW 4 NE SEA GULL LAKE 48.17N 90.89W
02/18/2014 M3.0 INCH COOK MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION GUNFLINT LAKE /GNFM5/


0700 AM SNOW 5 NE GRAND PORTAGE 48.01N 89.62W
02/18/2014 M4.0 INCH COOK MN MESONET

MESONET STATION 4 NE GRAND PORTAGE /GDPM5/


0700 AM SNOW 3 WSW LUTSEN 47.62N 90.76W
02/18/2014 M4.1 INCH COOK MN COCORAHS



0625 AM SNOW 13 NNW ODANAH 46.78N 90.77W
02/18/2014 M2.5 INCH ASHLAND WI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION MADELINE ISLAND
/MAIW3/


0605 AM SNOW 5 NW TWO HARBORS 47.08N 91.75W
02/18/2014 M6.3 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL FROM MONDAY


0600 AM SNOW COOK 47.85N 92.69W
02/18/2014 M8.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN COOP OBSERVER



0600 AM SNOW 3 E ORR 48.06N 92.75W
02/18/2014 M3.4 INCH ST. LOUIS MN COOP OBSERVER



0600 AM SNOW 3 ENE WRIGHT 46.68N 92.95W
02/18/2014 M2.6 INCH CARLTON MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION WRIGHT 3E /WRIM5/


0600 AM SNOW 8 WNW PARK FALLS 45.97N 90.60W
02/18/2014 M2.5 INCH PRICE WI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION 6 WSW BUTTERNUT /4118H/


0600 AM SNOW 7 SSW GRAND RAPIDS 47.14N 93.58W
02/18/2014 M5.8 INCH ITASCA MN COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION 6 SSW GRAND RAPIDS /8407B/


1204 AM SNOW 1 S SOLON SPRINGS 46.33N 91.82W
02/18/2014 M4.4 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER



1204 AM SNOW 5 WSW SOLON SPRINGS 46.32N 91.92W
02/18/2014 M4.6 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER



1101 PM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
02/17/2014 M3.5 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER



1052 PM SNOW LARSMONT 46.98N 91.75W
02/17/2014 M5.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0951 PM SNOW 3 W PHILLIPS 45.70N 90.46W
02/17/2014 M3.0 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER



0800 PM SNOW 2 N IRON JUNCTION 47.44N 92.60W
02/17/2014 M5.2 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0728 PM SNOW SAGINAW 46.86N 92.44W
02/17/2014 M7.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN PUBLIC

VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.


0717 PM SNOW MOOSE LAKE 46.45N 92.77W
02/17/2014 M3.5 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0715 PM SNOW 3 NNW AMNICON FALLS STA 46.66N 91.92W
02/17/2014 M3.1 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER



0709 PM SNOW HAWTHORNE 46.50N 91.86W
02/17/2014 M3.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER



0634 PM SNOW 5 S LITTLEFORK 48.32N 93.56W
02/17/2014 M4.5 INCH KOOCHICHING MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0627 PM SNOW 6 W TWO HARBORS 47.03N 91.80W
02/17/2014 M7.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0621 PM SNOW COLERAINE 47.31N 93.42W
02/17/2014 M5.5 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0618 PM SNOW CORNUCOPIA 46.86N 91.10W
02/17/2014 M5.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER



0600 PM SNOW 5 NW DULUTH 46.83N 92.19W
02/17/2014 M6.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS



0600 PM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
02/17/2014 M3.9 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS



0552 PM SNOW POPLAR 46.58N 91.79W
02/17/2014 M4.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

CORRECTED LOCATION.


0539 PM SNOW 3 NE NISSWA 46.53N 94.25W
02/17/2014 M3.8 INCH CROW WING MN CO-OP OBSERVER



0529 PM SNOW HOLYOKE 46.47N 92.39W
02/17/2014 M2.9 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0435 PM SNOW 2 SW WEBB LAKE 45.99N 92.17W
02/17/2014 M2.4 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER



0434 PM SNOW 7 E PHILLIPS 45.70N 90.25W
02/17/2014 M3.0 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER



0434 PM SNOW EMBARRASS 47.66N 92.20W
02/17/2014 M6.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0.39 INCHES SNOW WATER. 27 INCHES ON THE
GROUND.


0428 PM SNOW REMER 47.06N 93.91W
02/17/2014 M3.5 INCH CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0428 PM SNOW OULU 46.63N 91.53W
02/17/2014 M3.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI CO-OP OBSERVER



0408 PM SNOW BRAINERD 46.35N 94.19W
02/17/2014 M3.7 INCH CROW WING MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0344 PM SNOW GRAND MARAIS 47.76N 90.34W
02/17/2014 M6.5 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0334 PM SNOW WEST DULUTH 46.74N 92.19W
02/17/2014 M4.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN NWS EMPLOYEE



0331 PM SNOW 5 N TWO HARBORS 47.10N 91.68W
02/17/2014 M7.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0321 PM SNOW 2 NE LUTSEN 47.66N 90.68W
02/17/2014 M6.0 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0250 PM SNOW LAKE NICHOLS 47.10N 92.53W
02/17/2014 M6.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0227 PM SNOW 4 S SAWYER 46.61N 92.63W
02/17/2014 M4.7 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0206 PM SNOW 3 N BRAINERD 46.40N 94.19W
02/17/2014 M3.5 INCH CROW WING MN TRAINED SPOTTER



0204 PM SNOW SEELEY 46.12N 91.36W
02/17/2014 M2.0 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER



1216 PM SNOW BREEZY POINT 46.60N 94.22W
02/17/2014 M5.0 INCH CROW WING MN TRAINED SPOTTER



1146 AM SNOW EMILY 46.76N 93.96W
02/17/2014 E5.0 INCH CROW WING MN TRAINED SPOTTER



1143 AM SNOW CLOQUET 46.73N 92.49W
02/17/2014 M4.5 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER



1130AM SNOW 7 SE GRAND RAPIDS 47.16N 93.42W
02/17/2014 M5.0 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KLH/IRIS SYSTEM

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