MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0113

ACUS11 KWNS 190406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190406
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-190630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY THROUGH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 190406Z - 190630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD EWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KY AND PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER WRN KY. ACTIVITY IS INITIATING WITHIN ZONE OF
DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT FORCED BY A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION AND ITS ATTENDANT 40 KT SWLY LLJ.
A CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY /800-1000 J/KG/ MUCAPE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO SWRN KY WHERE THE LLJ HAS
ADVECTED RICHER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MIDDLE LEVEL-LAPSE RATES BUT
ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS MORE CAPPED
WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN...SO SRN EXTENT OF THE MORE
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...GLAZING
INFLUENCE OF ASCENT ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE CAP AND INITIATE STORMS INTO NRN PARTS OF
WRN AND MIDDLE TN. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED HAIL
GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS.

..DIAL/HART.. 02/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 37428787 37748607 37258535 36558547 35928612 35578724
35818826 36298886 36978880 37428787

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