KOAX [130458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 130458
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1058 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM SNOW 5 NNW LINCOLN 40.87N 96.73W
11/12/2010 M1.2 INCH LANCASTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VDEWALD

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KFSD [130453]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 130453
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1053 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1036 PM SNOW HOLSTEIN 42.49N 95.54W
11/12/2010 E1.0 INCH IDA IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

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KFSD [130446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 130446
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1046 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 PM SNOW STORM LAKE 42.65N 95.20W
11/12/2010 E2.5 INCH BUENA VISTA IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

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KFSD [130440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 130440
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1036 PM SNOW IDA GROVE 42.34N 95.47W
11/12/2010 E2.5 INCH IDA IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

AMOUNT TYPICAL FOR ARTHUR AND BATTLE CREEK AREA AS WELL.

&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130440
SWODY1
SPC AC 130438

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT UPPER LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS
OF 05Z WILL PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUILDS
SEWD/AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY SURGES EWD...REACHING THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CNTRL GULF LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

00Z SOUNDINGS AND WV IMAGERY REFLECT A VERY DRY AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES/WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE
GULF AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECTANT AIR MASS
RECOVERY/MOISTURE RETURN IS POOR AND WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP...WHILE THE UPPER FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...A WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION ACROSS TEXAS...WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FOR THE
DAY 1 TIME FRAME AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD.

..HURLBUT/EDWARDS.. 11/13/2010

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KFSD [130421]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 130421
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1021 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM SNOW STORM LAKE 42.65N 95.20W
11/12/2010 E1.3 INCH BUENA VISTA IA BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

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KDMX [130417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 130417
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1016 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0903 PM SNOW SCHALLER 42.50N 95.30W
11/12/2010 E1.3 INCH SAC IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

FROM SAC COUNTY SHERIFF. DELAYED REPORT.

1003 PM SNOW DENISON 42.02N 95.35W
11/12/2010 E1.5 INCH CRAWFORD IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

FROM SAC COUNTY SHERIFF. SEVERAL CARS IN DITCH DUE TO
SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

1003 PM SNOW AUBURN 42.25N 94.88W
11/12/2010 E1.8 INCH SAC IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN THE TOWN OF AUBURN.

1007 PM SNOW DENISON 42.02N 95.35W
11/12/2010 E4.0 INCH CRAWFORD IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

FROM CRAWFORD COUNTY SHERIFF

1007 PM SNOW CHARTER OAK 42.07N 95.59W
11/12/2010 E5.0 INCH CRAWFORD IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

5 INCHES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CRAWFORD COUNTY. FROM
CRAWFORD COUNTY SHERIFF

1012 PM SNOW BREDA 42.18N 94.98W
11/12/2010 E1.5 INCH CARROLL IA BROADCAST MEDIA

FROM KCCI

&&

$$

PODRAZIK

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KMHX [130339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 130339
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1038 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1033 PM STORM SURGE 1 N RODANTHE 35.61N 75.47W
11/12/2010 U0.00 FT DARE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

911 CENTER REPORTS OCEAN OVERWASH BEGINNING TO INNUNDATE
HIGHWAY 12 WITH SAND AND WATER AGAIN BUT STILL PASSABLE.

&&

$$

JMERRELL

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KOAX [130338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 130338
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
938 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0938 PM SNOW OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
11/12/2010 E2.5 INCH DOUGLAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR OMAHA EPPLEY.

&&

$$

VDEWALD

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KOAX [130323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 130323
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
923 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM SNOW OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
11/12/2010 M2.5 INCH DOUGLAS NE BROADCAST MEDIA

JUST WEST OF DOWNTOWN.

&&

$$

VDEWALD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2041

ACUS11 KWNS 130320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130319
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-130745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN IA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 130319Z - 130745Z

A CHANGEOVER TO MODERATE/HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN IA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN.

IT IS LIKELY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/ORIENT INTO
GENERAL SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BANDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITHIN
AN EVOLVING DEFORMATION BAND/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM FAR
EASTERN NEB TO WESTERN/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN. SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND/JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES AT
MID EVENING /03Z/...BUT COLD ADVECTION/HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO /OR AT LEAST EMBEDDED BOUTS
OF/ SNOW.

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 00Z OMAHA OBSERVED RAOB AND OBSERVED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...RUC/00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A
CHANGEOVER TO MODERATE/HEAVY WET SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ATOP
A DEEP /JUST BELOW FREEZING/ ISOTHERMAL LAYER BEING RATHER FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE FLAKES/AGGREGATE SNOW GROWTH ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE 06Z-09Z
TIME FRAME AND BEYOND. FURTHERMORE...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT /AND EVEN SOME SCANT CAPE NOTED IN
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...EMBEDDED SNOW RATES MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1 IN/HR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.

..GUYER.. 11/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 44539438 44089282 42689443 41509536 42389641 44539438

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KOAX [130308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 130308
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
908 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM SNOW 4 NE GRETNA 41.18N 96.19W
11/12/2010 M3.5 INCH SARPY NE NWS EMPLOYEE

3 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND...BUT SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
3.5 INCHES SO FAR.

&&

$$

VDEWALD

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KOAX [130254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 130254
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
854 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0853 PM SNOW OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
11/12/2010 E2.0 INCH DOUGLAS NE BROADCAST MEDIA

NEAR DOWNTOWN.

&&

$$

VDEWALD

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KOAX [130252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 130252
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
852 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM SNOW 6 S LOGAN 41.56N 95.79W
11/12/2010 E3.5 INCH HARRISON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

VDEWALD

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KOAX [130228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 130228
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
828 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 PM SNOW DUNLAP 41.85N 95.60W
11/12/2010 E0.5 INCH HARRISON IA CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

VDEWALD

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KDMX [130222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 130222
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
822 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM SNOW DENISON 42.02N 95.35W
11/12/2010 E1.5 INCH CRAWFORD IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN DENISON.

&&

$$

BEERENDS

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KOAX [130148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 130148
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
748 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0748 PM SNOW OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
11/12/2010 E1.5 INCH DOUGLAS NE BROADCAST MEDIA

ESTIMATED NEAR MIDTOWN.

&&

$$

VDEWALD

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KTFX [130127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 130127
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
626 PM MST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM SNOW 5 SE MONARCH 47.04N 110.78W
11/12/2010 M1.4 INCH CASCADE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

1.4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TFX1000002

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 130104
SWODY1
SPC AC 130102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING
THAT CHARACTERIZES UPPER AIR REGIME OVER GREAT PLAINS STATES. AS
HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
MT...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER KS/OK WILL EJECT NEWD. PRIMARY
VORTICITY MAX ACCOMPANYING LATTER TROUGH SHOULD REACH OMA AREA BY
END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...RELATED SFC LOW -- ANALYZED AT 23Z OVER
NERN OK -- WILL SHIFT NEWD ALONG FRONT...DEEPEN...OCCLUDE...AND MOVE
TO CENTRAL IA. TRAILING COLD FRONT...DRAWN AT 23Z FROM SERN OK
ACROSS CENTRAL/SW TX...SHOULD CROSS MOST OF AR/MO...WRN LA...AND SE
TX...REACHING MID-UPPER TX COAST BY 12Z.

...MID MS VALLEY REGION TO WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
TWO MAIN THUNDER REGIMES ARE EVIDENT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SPATIAL
OVERLAP...EACH OF WHICH IS FCST TO DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. NRN REGIME INVOLVES STG CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND DCVA AHEAD OF EJECTING MID-UPPER WAVE. THESE PROCESS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MRGL BUOYANCY ALOFT IN SUPPORT OF TSTMS NOW CROSSING
NRN MO...AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD REDUCE MUCAPE FROM 50-100 J/KG TOP
VALUES NOW ESTIMATED OVER AREA...AND CAUSE TSTMS TO DISSIPATE.

FARTHER S...FRONTAL FORCING AND BAND OF PREFRONTAL ASCENT EACH ARE
IMPINGING ON NARROWING/MRGL CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND
MLCAPE INITIALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 100 J/KG OVER ERN OK TO 1000
J/KG OVER E TX. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS PRIMARILY S OF RED RIVER...BECOMING
ISOLATED/SPORADIC FARTHER N. THIS CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH TIME AS FROPA FURTHER NARROWS ALREADY MRGL MOIST SECTOR...AND
FRONT ENTERS DRIER AIR MASS OVER AR/NRN LA. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
MOVING AWAY FROM AREA...LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK WHILE SFC DIABATIC COOLING REDUCES WARM-SECTOR BUOYANCY.

..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130042
SWODY1
SPC AC 130041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING
THAT CHARACTERIZES UPPER AIR REGIME OVER GREAT PLAINS STATES. AS
HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
MT...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER KS/OK WILL EJECT NEWD. PRIMARY
VORTICITY MAX ACCOMPANYING LATTER TROUGH SHOULD REACH OMA AREA BY
END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...RELATED SFC LOW -- ANALYZED AT 23Z OVER
NERN OK -- WILL SHIFT NEWD ALONG FRONT...DEEPEN...OCCLUDE...AND MOVE
TO CENTRAL IA. TRAILING COLD FRONT...DRAWN AT 23Z FROM SERN OK
ACROSS CENTRAL/SW TX...SHOULD CROSS MOST OF AR/MO...WRN LA...AND SE
TX...REACHING MID-UPPER TX COAST BY 12Z.

...MID MS VALLEY REGION TO ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
TWO MAIN THUNDER REGIMES ARE EVIDENT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SPATIAL
OVERLAP...EACH OF WHICH IS FCST TO DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. NRN REGIME INVOLVES STG CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND DCVA AHEAD OF EJECTING MID-UPPER WAVE. THESE PROCESS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MRGL BUOYANCY ALOFT IN SUPPORT OF TSTMS NOW CROSSING
NRN MO...AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD REDUCE MUCAPE FROM 50-100 J/KG TOP
VALUES NOW ESTIMATED OVER AREA...AND CAUSE TSTMS TO DISSIPATE.

FARTHER S...FRONTAL FORCING AND BAND OF PREFRONTAL ASCENT EACH ARE
IMPINGING ON NARROWING/MRGL CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND
MLCAPE INITIALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 100 J/KG OVER ERN OK TO 1000
J/KG OVER E TX. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS PRIMARILY S OF RED RIVER...BECOMING
ISOLATED/SPORADIC FARTHER N. THIS CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH TIME AS FROPA FURTHER NARROWS ALREADY MRGL MOIST SECTOR...AND
FRONT ENTERS DRIER AIR MASS OVER AR/NRN LA. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
MOVING AWAY FROM AREA...LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK WHILE SFC DIABATIC COOLING REDUCES WARM-SECTOR BUOYANCY.

..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2010

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KTOP [130010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 130010
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 W OKETO 39.96N 96.66W
11/12/2010 E3.30 INCH MARSHALL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL AS OF 5 PM CST.

&&

$$

JB

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KTOP [130008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 130008
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 WSW BEATTIE 39.84N 96.52W
11/12/2010 E2.30 INCH MARSHALL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL AS OF 6 PM CST.

&&

$$

JBOWEN

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KTOP [122356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 122356
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
556 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM SNOW 8 N MORROWVILLE 39.96N 97.16W
11/12/2010 E2.0 INCH WASHINGTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KFWD [122210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 122210
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
410 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0311 PM TSTM WND DMG CANTON 32.55N 95.87W
11/12/2010 VAN ZANDT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE LIMB BLOCKING A ROAD.

$$

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KMHX [122059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 122059
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
359 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0154 PM STORM SURGE 5 SSE NAGS HEAD 35.88N 75.59W
11/12/2010 U0.00 FT DARE NC EMERGENCY MNGR

OCEAN OVERWASH WITH DEBRIS,SOUTH NAGS HEAD...ALL
OCEANSIDE STREETS S OLD OREGON INLET RD ESPECIALLY AROUND
MCCALL CT,LINULES ST,OREGON DR AND JUNCO ST

&&

$$

BMELENDEZ

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KFWD [122055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 122055
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
255 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM TSTM WND DMG GREENVILLE 33.13N 96.12W
11/12/2010 HUNT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

AWNINGS OFF BUILDINGS, GAS SIGN WAS BLOWN DOWN, SEVERAL
POWERLINES WERE DOWN, AND A MALL SIGN FELL ON A CAR.

$$

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KAMA [122032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 122032
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
232 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0931 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W AMARILLO 35.20N 101.83W
11/11/2010 POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

INTERSTATE 27 BEING CLOSED FROM GEORGIA TO HILLSIDE DUE
TO NUMEROUS STRANDED CARS IN HIGH WATER. NUMEROUS HIGH
WATER RESCUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AMARILLO.

0700 AM SNOW 5 NNE ADRIAN 35.35N 102.65W
11/12/2010 M4.5 INCH OLDHAM TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 3 NW VEGA 35.28N 102.46W
11/12/2010 M5.0 INCH OLDHAM TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0710 AM SNOW HEREFORD 34.82N 102.40W
11/12/2010 M2.0 INCH DEAF SMITH TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 6 SW AMARILLO 35.14N 101.91W
11/12/2010 M3.0 INCH RANDALL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0800 AM SNOW 1 WSW BUSHLAND 35.19N 102.08W
11/12/2010 M5.5 INCH POTTER TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 1 NE GRUVER 36.26N 101.41W
11/12/2010 M4.0 INCH HANSFORD TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0825 AM SNOW 7 SW AMARILLO 35.14N 101.90W
11/12/2010 M3.0 INCH RANDALL TX BROADCAST MEDIA

LOCAL BROADCAST METEOROLOGIST MEASURED 3 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE SLEEPY HOLLOW AREA.

0830 AM SNOW 2 WSW BORGER 35.65N 101.43W
11/12/2010 M2.5 INCH HUTCHINSON TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0905 AM SNOW 6 WNW AMARILLO 35.23N 101.91W
11/12/2010 M4.5 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0905 AM SNOW 5 W AMARILLO 35.21N 101.91W
11/12/2010 M5.0 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0928 AM SNOW 1 NW PAMPA 35.55N 100.97W
11/12/2010 M2.0 INCH GRAY TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0954 AM SNOW 7 ENE AMARILLO 35.24N 101.70W
11/12/2010 M3.0 INCH POTTER TX PUBLIC

REPORTED 3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM NE 14TH AVENUE IN
AMARILLO.

1000 AM SNOW DUMAS 35.86N 101.97W
11/12/2010 E2.0 INCH MOORE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

1015 AM SNOW 6 S WILDORADO 35.13N 102.24W
11/12/2010 M5.0 INCH DEAF SMITH TX PUBLIC

1100 AM SNOW 6 WSW AMARILLO 35.17N 101.92W
11/12/2010 M3.0 INCH RANDALL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

1100 AM SNOW SPEARMAN 36.20N 101.19W
11/12/2010 E4.5 INCH HANSFORD TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1240 PM SNOW PANHANDLE 35.35N 101.38W
11/12/2010 M4.0 INCH CARSON TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000839 AMA1000849 AMA1000850 AMA1000840 AMA1000843
AMA1000852 AMA1000854 AMA1000841 AMA1000857 AMA1000845 AMA1000846
AMA1000855 AMA1000847 AMA1000856 AMA1000848 AMA1000844 AMA1000858
AMA1000853

$$

NUTTALL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121954
SWODY1
SPC AC 121952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
THE PRIOR OUTLOOK REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH VERY LIMITED
CAPE BUT FAVORABLE SHEAR SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE FORECAST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW
CROSSING CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX/OK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAVE SHIFTED THE
WRN FRINGE OF THE THUNDER/SEVERE PROBABILITIES EWD...AND HAVE
TRIMMED NRN PORTIONS OF THE THUNDER AREA SWD INTO FAR SERN KS/SWRN
MO. OTHERWISE...LIMITED THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 11/12/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2010/

...SRN PLAINS...
LATEST MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EWD
INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...AND THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO TURN
MORE ENEWD THROUGH NRN OK AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
STRONGEST FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND LEFT
EXIT REGION OF 50-70 KT MID LEVEL JET...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS OK
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MO TONIGHT. AT 16Z...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED NEAR A MKC-WEST OF TUL-FSI-WEST OF ABI LINE AND IT APPEARS
THE STRONGER FORCING SHOULD SPREAD MOSTLY NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR FSI
AND SHOULD TRACK ENEWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND INTO ERN OK THROUGH THE
DAY. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 70F WILL YIELD MLCAPES FROM 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS SRN OK AND TX. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG GRADIENT
LOCATED NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...AS EVIDENCED BY 30-40 KT WINDS
IN THE COLD AIR WEST OF THE LOW...ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT AS THEY SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DESPITE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE STRONGER FORCING
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE.

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KGRB [121850]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 121850
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1250 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1248 PM SNOW ELCHO 45.43N 89.18W
11/12/2010 M0.7 INCH LANGLADE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BERSCH

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KAMA [121846]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 121846
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1246 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 NE GRUVER 36.26N 101.41W
11/12/2010 M4.0 INCH HANSFORD TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000854

$$

NUTTALL

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KAMA [121842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 121842
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1242 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 PM SNOW PANHANDLE 35.35N 101.38W
11/12/2010 M4.0 INCH CARSON TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000853

$$

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KAMA [121839]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 121839
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 WSW BUSHLAND 35.19N 102.08W
11/12/2010 M5.5 INCH POTTER TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000852

$$

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KAMA [121838]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 121838
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1237 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW HEREFORD 34.82N 102.40W
11/12/2010 M2.0 INCH DEAF SMITH TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000851

$$

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KAMA [121835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 121835
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1235 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 3 NW VEGA 35.28N 102.46W
11/12/2010 M5.0 INCH OLDHAM TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000850

$$

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KAMA [121833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 121833
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1233 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 5 NNE ADRIAN 35.35N 102.65W
11/12/2010 M4.5 INCH OLDHAM TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000849

$$

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KAMA [121827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 121827
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1227 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 AM SNOW 6 WNW AMARILLO 35.23N 101.91W
11/12/2010 M4.5 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000845

$$

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KAMA [121825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 121825
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM SNOW 6 WSW AMARILLO 35.17N 101.92W
11/12/2010 M3.0 INCH RANDALL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000844

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121728
SWODY2
SPC AC 121727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED
ACROSS THE U.S. DAY 2...AS A LARGE/SLOW-MOVING TROUGH -- CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. -- AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD PREVAILS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY NNEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE MS VALLEY AND MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MID
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...WARM
TEMPERATURES/WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL HINDER ANY APPRECIABLE CAPE
DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER N...COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE W OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION WHICH...COMBINED WITH EVEN MORE LIMITED
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE...SUGGESTS ONLY WEAK CONVECTION AT BEST
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ASIDE FROM A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL U.S.
STORM SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY
THIS PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 11/12/2010

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KMHX [121703]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 121703
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1203 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 AM STORM SURGE 1 N RODANTHE 35.62N 75.46W
11/12/2010 U0.00 FT DARE NC EMERGENCY MNGR

HWY 12 IS CLOSED BETWEEN OREGON INLET BRIDGE SOUTH TO
CORBINA DR.

&&

$$

BMELENDEZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2040

ACUS11 KWNS 121700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121659
OKZ000-TXZ000-121830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX AND SCNTRL/SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121659Z - 121830Z

...LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST...

A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEEPENING FROM FORT WORTH
METRO NWD TO NEAR ADA OK SINCE 16Z. STORM INTENSIFICATION APPEARS
RELATED TO WEAK INSOLATION/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND
MODIFIED FWD SOUNDING SUGGESTS AROUND 865 J/KG MLCAPE. LATEST
VWP-DERIVED HODOGRAPH FROM FWD EXHIBITED AROUND 20 KTS OF SFC-1KM
SHEAR AND AROUND 50 KTS OF FLOW BETWEEN 4-6 KM. GIVEN LOW LCLS AND
MODEST INSTABILITY...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG WITH
GUSTY/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE THROUGH NCNTRL/NERN TX AND
SCNTRL/SERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KDFW/KDAL AIRPORTS
1745-1830Z. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THAT GIVEN INCREASING LINEAR
FORCING...MODE WILL TRANSITION TO LARGELY LINE SEGMENTS WITH PERHAPS
EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELL TO BOW STRUCTURES. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED OWING TO LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION.

..RACY.. 11/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32019636 31849715 31899758 33389738 34969714 35249626
35079574 34479543 33799545 33109573 32629585 32279617
32019636

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KMHX [121655]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 121655
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1155 AM EST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1034 AM STORM SURGE 1 N KITTY HAWK 36.08N 75.72W
11/12/2010 U0.00 FT DARE NC EMERGENCY MNGR

OCEAN OVERWASH ON HWY 12 BETWEEN E BALCHEN ST UP TO E
ECKNER ST...ROAD REMAINS PASSABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

BMELENDEZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121615
SWODY1
SPC AC 121614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
LATEST MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EWD
INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...AND THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO TURN
MORE ENEWD THROUGH NRN OK AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
STRONGEST FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND LEFT
EXIT REGION OF 50-70 KT MID LEVEL JET...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS OK
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MO TONIGHT. AT 16Z...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED NEAR A MKC-WEST OF TUL-FSI-WEST OF ABI LINE AND IT APPEARS
THE STRONGER FORCING SHOULD SPREAD MOSTLY NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR FSI
AND SHOULD TRACK ENEWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND INTO ERN OK THROUGH THE
DAY. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 70F WILL YIELD MLCAPES FROM 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS SRN OK AND TX. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG GRADIENT
LOCATED NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...AS EVIDENCED BY 30-40 KT WINDS
IN THE COLD AIR WEST OF THE LOW...ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT AS THEY SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DESPITE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE STRONGER FORCING
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE.

..IMY/JEWELL.. 11/12/2010

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KAMA [121447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 121447
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
847 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0846 AM SNOW PANHANDLE 35.35N 101.38W
11/12/2010 M2.3 INCH CARSON TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000842

$$

KJS

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KAMA [121456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 121456
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
856 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 6 SW AMARILLO 35.14N 101.91W
11/12/2010 M3.0 INCH RANDALL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000843

$$

KJS

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KAMA [121443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 121443
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
843 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 AM SNOW AMARILLO 35.20N 101.82W
11/12/2010 M3.0 INCH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

STEVE KERSH MEASURED 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE SLEEPY
HOLLOW AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000841

$$

KJS

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