SWODY1
SPC AC 130041
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING
THAT CHARACTERIZES UPPER AIR REGIME OVER GREAT PLAINS STATES. AS
HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
MT...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER KS/OK WILL EJECT NEWD. PRIMARY
VORTICITY MAX ACCOMPANYING LATTER TROUGH SHOULD REACH OMA AREA BY
END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...RELATED SFC LOW -- ANALYZED AT 23Z OVER
NERN OK -- WILL SHIFT NEWD ALONG FRONT...DEEPEN...OCCLUDE...AND MOVE
TO CENTRAL IA. TRAILING COLD FRONT...DRAWN AT 23Z FROM SERN OK
ACROSS CENTRAL/SW TX...SHOULD CROSS MOST OF AR/MO...WRN LA...AND SE
TX...REACHING MID-UPPER TX COAST BY 12Z.
...MID MS VALLEY REGION TO ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
TWO MAIN THUNDER REGIMES ARE EVIDENT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SPATIAL
OVERLAP...EACH OF WHICH IS FCST TO DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. NRN REGIME INVOLVES STG CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND DCVA AHEAD OF EJECTING MID-UPPER WAVE. THESE PROCESS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MRGL BUOYANCY ALOFT IN SUPPORT OF TSTMS NOW CROSSING
NRN MO...AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD REDUCE MUCAPE FROM 50-100 J/KG TOP
VALUES NOW ESTIMATED OVER AREA...AND CAUSE TSTMS TO DISSIPATE.
FARTHER S...FRONTAL FORCING AND BAND OF PREFRONTAL ASCENT EACH ARE
IMPINGING ON NARROWING/MRGL CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND
MLCAPE INITIALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 100 J/KG OVER ERN OK TO 1000
J/KG OVER E TX. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS PRIMARILY S OF RED RIVER...BECOMING
ISOLATED/SPORADIC FARTHER N. THIS CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH TIME AS FROPA FURTHER NARROWS ALREADY MRGL MOIST SECTOR...AND
FRONT ENTERS DRIER AIR MASS OVER AR/NRN LA. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
MOVING AWAY FROM AREA...LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK WHILE SFC DIABATIC COOLING REDUCES WARM-SECTOR BUOYANCY.
..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2010
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