KFGF [190154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 190154
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
854 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM TORNADO 3 NE VALLEY CITY 46.95N 97.96W
05/18/2007 BARNES ND TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER LOCATED AT 117 AVE SE AND 31ST ST SE 3
MILES NORTH OF VALLEY CITY REPORTED A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN
A FIELD 3.5 MILES NE OF VALLEY CITY.

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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KFGF [190143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 190143
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
843 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM HAIL 1 NE DILWORTH 46.89N 96.68W
05/18/2007 E1.75 INCH CLAY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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KMFL [190139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 190139
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM TSTM WND GST 6 E BUCKHEAD RIDGE 27.14N 80.79W
05/18/2007 M0 MPH AMZ610 FL C-MAN STATION

WIND GUST TO 45 KNOTS AT TOWER L001 ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

&&

$$

GARCIA

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KFGF [190138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 190138
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
838 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 PM HAIL DILWORTH 46.88N 96.70W
05/18/2007 E1.00 INCH CLAY MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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KFGF [190130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 190130
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
830 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM HAIL 2 E SIBLEY 47.22N 97.92W
05/18/2007 E1.75 INCH BARNES ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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KFGF [190126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 190126
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
825 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM HAIL MOORHEAD 46.86N 96.76W
05/18/2007 E1.00 INCH CLAY MN AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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KFGF [190114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 190114
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
814 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HAIL MINNEWAUKAN 48.07N 99.25W
05/18/2007 E0.75 INCH BENSON ND TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KKRAMLICH

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KFGF [190113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 190113
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
813 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0812 PM HAIL 3 N MOORHEAD 46.91N 96.76W
05/18/2007 E1.00 INCH CLAY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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KMLB [190109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 190109
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM HAIL 7 SE OKEECHOBEE 27.17N 80.75W
05/18/2007 E1.75 INCH OKEECHOBEE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

BROKE WINDOWS IN FIRE TRUCK AT HWY 710 AND 15A

0845 PM HAIL 1 S OKEECHOBEE 27.23N 80.83W
05/18/2007 E0.75 INCH OKEECHOBEE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME-SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON NORTH LAKE SHORE.

&&

$$

DLJ

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KBIS [190052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 190052
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
752 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 PM HAIL 3 S ALMONT 46.68N 101.50W
05/18/2007 E1.25 INCH MORTON ND PUBLIC

REPORT RELAYED BY KFYR MEDIA

&&

$$

VROLLER

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KBIS [190046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 190046
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
746 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 12 NE DOUGLAS 47.98N 101.32W
05/18/2007 E1.75 INCH WARD ND TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO .70 RAINFALL

&&

$$

VROLLER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0833

ACUS11 KWNS 190042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190042
MNZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-190245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ND EWD INTO NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279...

VALID 190042Z - 190245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279
CONTINUES.

THROUGH 02-04Z...GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF WW 279 AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY
SURGING SWD AT AROUND 25 KT THROUGH CNTRL ND...WITH THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM 30 E ISN TO N60 TO 10 SE GFK AS OF
0020Z. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY
OVER ERN MOUNTRAIL...WARD...MCHENRY AND PIERCE COUNTIES WITH MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TO THE S FROM DUNN AND MERCER COUNTIES
SEWD TO MORTON AND GRANT COUNTIES. 00Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWED THE
PRESENCE OF QUITE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AHEAD OF THIS COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
VERTICAL SHEAR WAS MARGINAL...THOUGH STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION.

EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH WITH ONGOING STORMS TO THE N OF
THIS SURGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OWING TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
STABILITY DUE TO WET BULB COOLING AND/OR COLD ADVECTION. THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS NEAR AND E OF BIS SHOULD ONGOING STORMS W OF BIS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.

FARTHER TO THE E...A SUPERCELL WHICH DEVELOPED OVER GRIGGS COUNTY
HAS WEAKENED AS WELL APPARENTLY DUE TO THE INGESTION OF CONSIDERABLE
OUTFLOW FROM IT/S SURGING REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT. 00Z ABR SOUNDING
WAS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT OF BIS...SUGGESTING THAT SOME SEVERE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS STORM IF IT CAN RE-ORGANIZE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS STORM-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

.MEAD.. 05/19/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

49210423 49089489 48479506 48319544 47039540 46949609
46529611 46510087 46900127 46860314 47190329 47250417

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KFGF [190042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 190042
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
742 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 6 N LUVERNE 47.34N 97.93W
05/18/2007 E0.75 INCH STEELE ND PUBLIC

&&

$$

KKRAMLICH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190036
SWODY1
SPC AC 190034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ND INTO NWRN MN...

..ND THROUGH NWRN MN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO WSWWD THROUGH NWRN MN...NRN ND
THEN FARTHER WEST INTO MT. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN NEB NWD
THROUGH W CNTRL SD AND W CNTRL ND. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE
GENERALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN ND INTO NWRN MN
AS WELL AS IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME FARTHER SW ACROSS SWRN ND
AND WRN SD. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN AXIS OF MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG IN THIS REGION. INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED WITH ERN EXTENT
INTO MN...BUT SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING TOP
OF UPPER RIDGE OVER S CNTRL CANADA WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.

STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH ND INTO NRN MN
EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT EAST ACROSS
NRN AND ERN ND INTO NRN MN WHERE MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE
MAXIMIZED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY JUST N OF FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED
TO ELY. HOWEVER...HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS SUGGEST THEY
SHOULD REMAIN OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND SOME STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
CLUSTERS AND BOW ECHOES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..SRN MT...

SCATTERED STORMS ARE SPREADING NEWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
SRN MT. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
SERN MT WHERE THEY REMAIN IN THE 50S RESULTING IN MLCAPE AOA 1000
J/KG. STORMS SPREADING EWD TROUGH SERN MT APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED A
COLD POOL. THIS MULTICELL LINE MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS IT PROPAGATES EWD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS
NEXT 2-3 HOURS...BUT INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING.

..SERN AZ THROUGH NM...

STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND SERN AZ
CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD THIS EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN ACROSS
SRN NM AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO FAR WRN TX. ACTIVITY
MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICRO BURSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

.DIAL.. 05/19/2007

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KFGF [190035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 190035
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
735 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 7 E HANNAFORD 47.31N 98.04W
05/18/2007 E1.75 INCH GRIGGS ND PUBLIC

&&

$$

KKRAMLICH

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KBIS [190027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 190027
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
727 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM TSTM WND GST MINOT AFB 48.42N 101.34W
05/18/2007 M63 MPH WARD ND ASOS

&&

$$

VROLLER

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KFGF [182357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 182357
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
657 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 PM TORNADO 3 E WALUM 47.27N 98.13W
05/18/2007 GRIGGS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO ON THE GROUND 8N OF LUVERNE ON GRIGGS SIDE OF THE
COUNTY LINE REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER AT 652 PM. REPORT
RELAYED BY STEELE COUNTY LAW ENFORECEMENT.

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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KFGF [182341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 182341
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 PM HAIL ERSKINE 47.66N 96.01W
05/18/2007 E1.00 INCH POLK MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

KKRAMLICH

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KBIS [182338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 182338
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL 1 SE MINOT 48.22N 101.28W
05/18/2007 E0.88 INCH WARD ND BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MINOT MEDIA

0602 PM HAIL SURREY 48.24N 101.13W
05/18/2007 E1.50 INCH WARD ND BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MINOT MEDIA

0603 PM HAIL 4 SE MINOT 48.19N 101.23W
05/18/2007 E1.00 INCH WARD ND BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MINOT MEDIA

&&

$$

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KFGF [182338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 182338
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL 2 SW SHARON 47.58N 97.93W
05/18/2007 E1.75 INCH STEELE ND PUBLIC

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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KGGW [182335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 182335
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
534 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL SSE SAVAGE 47.45N 104.34W
05/18/2007 M0.75 INCH RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0430 PM HAIL SSE SAVAGE 47.45N 104.34W
05/18/2007 M0.75 INCH RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SPENCERM

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KMAF [182332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 182332
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL 13 WNW FORT DAVIS 30.66N 104.10W
05/18/2007 U1.00 INCH JEFF DAVIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND TO A DEPTH
OF 2 INCHES 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT DAVIS NEAR STATE
HIGHWAY 118.

&&

$$

CL

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KFGF [182331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 182331
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
631 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL 3 N MENTOR 47.74N 96.14W
05/18/2007 E0.75 INCH POLK MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

KKRAMLICH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0832

ACUS11 KWNS 182321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182320
MNZ000-190045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 182320Z - 190045Z

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 279 THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
PENNINGTON AND RED LAKE COUNTIES IN NWRN MN...PERHAPS AS INITIALLY
ELEVATED...WEAKER CONVECTION FINALLY BECAME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER
AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT
THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL ND INTO N-CNTRL SD WHERE
MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THAT THIS STORM IS
MOVING SEWD AWAY FROM THIS STRONGER INSTABILITY...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS STORM WILL MAINTAIN IT/S INTENSITY.

REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER NETWORK AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ATTENDANT TO 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL BE
MAINTAINED AT LEAST THROUGH 19/06Z OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHICH
COULD SUPPORT SOME EWD DEVELOPMENT TO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS WITH
TIME. THIS COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /30-35 KT
PER GRAND FORKS VWP/ INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TO DEVELOP E OF CURRENT WW THIS EVENING.

.MEAD.. 05/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

48349555 48639501 48619422 48369344 47589333 46759384
46309453 46119506 46139538 46439598

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KFGF [182312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 182312
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
612 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL RED LAKE FALLS 47.89N 96.27W
05/18/2007 E0.88 INCH RED LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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KFGF [182310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 182310
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
610 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 1 S WYLIE 47.95N 96.35W
05/18/2007 E0.88 INCH RED LAKE MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

KKRAMLICH

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KFGF [182303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 182303
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
603 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL 10 WSW HAZEL 47.96N 96.31W
05/18/2007 E0.75 INCH PENNINGTON MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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KPUB [182255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 182255
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
455 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL COLORADO SPRINGS 38.86N 104.76W
05/18/2007 M1.00 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AT POWERS AND PALMER LAKE IN EASTERN
COLORADO SPRINGS

&&

$$

LWALROD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0831

ACUS11 KWNS 182247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182247
SDZ000-NDZ000-190015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND INTO NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182247Z - 190015Z

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL WILL EXIST THIS EVENING. A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT
FROM HETTINGER AND GRANT COUNTIES ND SWWD INTO HARDING AND PERKINS
COUNTIES SD. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY HOT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 F WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9.5 C/KM. DESPITE MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...THESE LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT S
OF WW 279 APPEARS TO BE THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER 03-04Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS AND
INSTABILITY DECREASES.

.MEAD.. 05/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45840286 46270267 46630241 46790191 46750133 46500081
46170049 45790034 45410036 44960089 44690154 44590225
44590274 44680332 44890354

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KBIS [182245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 182245
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
545 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL 8 NE MAX 47.90N 101.17W
05/18/2007 E1.00 INCH WARD ND TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CP

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KFGF [182231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 182231
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
531 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0519 PM HAIL 9 ENE JESSIE 47.59N 98.06W
05/18/2007 E1.75 INCH GRIGGS ND PUBLIC

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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KPUB [182216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 182216
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
416 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL 3 SW FALCON 38.90N 104.66W
05/18/2007 M1.00 INCH EL PASO CO AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

MOORE

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KBIS [182149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 182149
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
449 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL 8 N MAX 47.94N 101.29W
05/18/2007 E1.75 INCH WARD ND BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED BY PUBLIC TO MEDIA

&&

$$

VROLLER

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KBIS [182146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 182146
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
446 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL 7 N PALERMO 48.44N 102.23W
05/18/2007 E1.75 INCH MOUNTRAIL ND TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VROLLER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0830

ACUS11 KWNS 182108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182108
WYZ000-MTZ000-182345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN MONTANA...FAR NRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182108Z - 182345Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND POSSIBLE.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY DUE TO HEATING AND
PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OF
LOW MAGNITUDE. IN ADDITION TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
AREA OF FAR SWRN MT...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE STORM FORMATION WILL
BE ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS CNTRL MT JUST S OF
A GTF TO LWT LINE. HERE..NELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS INCREASING LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S. THUS...GIVEN
CONTINUED HEATING...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE CAPPING FARTHER E...SO STORMS
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP
SHEAR...THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD REMAIN LONG ENOUGH LIVED TO
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE IN AN
EWD...AND EVENTUALLY SEWD DIRECTION.

.JEWELL.. 05/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

45041090 45021117 45141177 45601226 46051242 46431198
47221161 47311038 47320897 47030837 46570801 45460710
44870638 44580668 44560748 44760827 45030920 45041077

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 279

WWUS20 KWNS 182041
SEL9
SPC WW 182041
MNZ000-NDZ000-190400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON NORTH DAKOTA TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THIEF RIVER FALLS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW FORMING OVER NORTHWEST
ND...ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE NEW STORMS FORM
FARTHER EASTWARD ALONG FRONT. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

..HART

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KEPZ [182029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 182029
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
228 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0219 PM HAIL 6 WNW SILVER CITY 32.83N 108.35W
05/18/2007 E1.00 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND ONE INCH OF RAIN
NORTHWEST OF SILVER CITY.

&&

$$

FAUSETT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0829

ACUS11 KWNS 182027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182026
NDZ000-MTZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ND.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 182026Z - 182130Z

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS
PORTIONS NWRN...W-CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL ND...AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE DESCRIBED BELOW. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AND LOW-DBZ REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATES COLD
FRONT FROM NERN CORNER ND SWWD NEAR DVL...NWWD THROUGH INFLECTION
POINT OVER NRN/CENTRAL BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WWD TO WEAK SFC LOW
BETWEEN ISN-YEN...THEN NWWD TO PRIMARY SFC LOW OVER S-CENTRAL SASK.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FRONT SHOULD DRIFT SWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL ND
AS MAIN LOW SHIFTS/CONSOLIDATES SEWD TO W-CENTRAL ND. TWO SFC MOIST
AXES ARE EVIDENT...ONE PARALLEL TO AND JUST N OF FRONT FROM SERN
SASK TO N-CENTRAL ND...MERGING WITH ANOTHER THAT EXTENDS FROM
N-CENTRAL ND SWWD ACROSS DIK-BHK AREA. CONSIDERABLE MIXING/DRYING
HAS OCCURRED PAST 1-2 HOURS AROUND ISN...BETWEEN THOSE AXES. THIS
CONCENTRATES THETAE GRADIENT ALONG NWRN PORTION FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED.
ACCORDINGLY...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED TCU AND INTERMITTENT
GLACIATED TOWERS OVER BURKE/NRN MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...AS WELL AS
SEPARATE AREA OF TOWERS S OF MO RIVER OVER MCKENZIE COUNTY.

ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN EITHER AREA SHOULD MOVE EWD TO SEWD
INTO FAVORABLE MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S
F...THOUGH MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE INVOF FRONT.
CONTINUED HEATING WILL DEEPEN MIXED LAYER...BOOST MLCAPES AS HIGH AS
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG FRONT...AND ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL/GUSTS TO REACH SFC FROM ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. BACKED
NEAR-FRONTAL SFC WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO 0-3 KM SRH 150-250 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KT.

.EDWARDS.. 05/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

46810388 47610320 48220327 48960408 49010404 48950060
48759799 47869775 47119818 47219964 46470248

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KOKX [182007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KOKX 182007
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0306 PM TSTM WND DMG POMPTON LAKES 41.00N 74.29W
05/16/2007 PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ON CAR WITH LIVE WIRES

0306 PM TSTM WND DMG POMPTON LAKES 41.00N 74.29W
05/16/2007 PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ON RAMAPO AVENUE

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG WYCKOFF 41.00N 74.17W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED...ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND GUST

0315 PM FLOOD POMPTON LAKES 41.00N 74.29W
05/16/2007 PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

HAMBURG TURNPIKE FLOODED

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG FRANKLIN LAKES 41.01N 74.21W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

*** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ON AN INDIVIDUAL...1008 FRANKLIN
ROAD

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG WYCKOFF 41.00N 74.17W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN ON WYCKOFF AVENUE AND MOLLY COURT

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG RAMSEY 41.06N 74.15W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

61 MPH GUST...DOWNED TREES

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG RAMSEY 41.06N 74.15W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

61 MPH GUST...DOWNED TREES

0317 PM TSTM WND DMG WALDWICK 41.01N 74.13W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0317 PM TSTM WND DMG ALLENDALE 41.03N 74.13W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0317 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDLAND PARK 40.99N 74.14W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0320 PM TSTM WND DMG WANAQUE 41.04N 74.29W
05/16/2007 PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TRES DOWN

0324 PM TSTM WND DMG POMONA 41.19N 74.05W
05/16/2007 ROCKLAND NY NWS EMPLOYEE

DOWNED TREE

0325 PM TSTM WND DMG NORWOOD 40.99N 73.95W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

*** 1 INJ *** WORKER STRUCK BY TREE...HEAD INJURY...308
CEDAR COURT

0326 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDLAND PARK 40.99N 74.14W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ON HOUSE...132 CHAMBERLAND PLACE

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG SOUTH NYACK 41.08N 73.92W
05/16/2007 ROCKLAND NY TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG RAMSEY 41.06N 74.15W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN...1/5TH OF TOWN WITHOUT POWER

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG WESTFIELD 40.65N 74.34W
05/16/2007 UNION NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST OF 62 MPH...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...POWERLINES
DOWN

0348 PM TSTM WND GST 5 ESE GOLDEN'S BRIDGE 41.26N 73.58W
05/16/2007 M62.00 MPH WESTCHESTER NY MESONET

62 MPH MEASURED WIND GUST AT JOHN JAY HIGH SCHOOL IN
CROSS RIVER.

0350 PM TSTM WND DMG ROSELLE PARK 40.67N 74.27W
05/16/2007 UNION NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE LIMBS AND TREE DOWN ON GRANT AVENUE NEAR GALLOPING
HILL

0350 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARK 40.62N 74.31W
05/16/2007 UNION NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ON HOUSE...HEAVY STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...158 FULTON
STREET

0354 PM TSTM WND DMG NEWARK 40.72N 74.17W
05/16/2007 ESSEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ON HOUSE...202 SHEPHARD PLACE

0358 PM TORNADO BETHEL 41.37N 73.41W
05/16/2007 FAIRFIELD CT NWS STORM SURVEY

EF-1 TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR. APPROXIMATE
PATH LENGTH 4-5 MILES BETWEEN BETHEL AND NEWTOWN. AVERAGE
WIDTH 100 YEARS.

0358 PM TSTM WND DMG TOMPKINSVILLE 40.63N 74.07W
05/16/2007 RICHMOND NY TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWNED

0358 PM TSTM WND DMG GRASMERE 40.61N 74.07W
05/16/2007 RICHMOND NY TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWNED

0359 PM TSTM WND GST JERSEY CITY 40.71N 74.07W
05/16/2007 M59.00 MPH HUDSON NJ MESONET

EZRA NOLAN MIDDLE SCHOOL

0359 PM TSTM WND DMG DANBURY 41.40N 73.47W
05/16/2007 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

DOWNED TREES ON NEWTON ROAD

0359 PM TSTM WND DMG DANBURY 41.40N 73.47W
05/16/2007 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON CARRIAGE HOUSE ROAD

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG JERSEY CITY 40.71N 74.07W
05/16/2007 HUDSON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON YALE STREET.

0400 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ESE BAYONNE 40.66N 74.07W
05/16/2007 M72.00 MPH HUDSON NJ C-MAN STATION

49 G 63 KNOTS. ROBBINS REEF IN NY HARBOR.

0403 PM TSTM WND GST BROOKLYN HEIGHTS 40.70N 73.98W
05/16/2007 M70.00 MPH KINGS NY MESONET

NEW UTRECH HIGH SCHOOL

0405 PM TSTM WND DMG NEWTOWN 41.41N 73.32W
05/16/2007 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0410 PM TSTM WND DMG EASTON 41.24N 73.31W
05/16/2007 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG SOUTHBURY 41.49N 73.22W
05/16/2007 NEW HAVEN CT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0418 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 7 SSW CONEY ISLAND 40.48N 74.01W
05/16/2007 M40.00 MPH ANZ338 NJ BUOY

35 KT WIND GUST

0419 PM TSTM WND DMG BETHANY 41.40N 72.94W
05/16/2007 NEW HAVEN CT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0424 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 ESE EAST TREMONT 40.81N 73.78W
05/16/2007 M41.00 MPH ANZ335 NY BUOY

36 KT WIND GUST

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDDLETOWN 41.55N 72.65W
05/16/2007 MIDDLESEX CT TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN...60-70 MPH WINDS

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG CROMWELL 41.60N 72.63W
05/16/2007 MIDDLESEX CT TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN...60-70 MPH WINDS

0445 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 SE PORT CHESTER 40.96N 73.58W
05/16/2007 M45.00 MPH ANZ335 CT BUOY

39 KT WIND GUST

&&

$$

JST

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KTFX [181958]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 181958
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
158 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL 5 N GRASS RANGE 47.10N 108.80W
05/17/2007 E1.25 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL WITH BIGGEST PIECES THE SIZE OF A
HALF DOLLAR COIN.

0910 PM TSTM WND GST 6 N BIG SANDY 48.26N 110.12W
05/17/2007 E70.00 MPH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH SNAPPED LARGE LIMBS ON
TREES.

&&

$$

EK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181953
SWODY1
SPC AC 181950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND NRN
MN...

..ND/MN...
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EWD INTO ERN MT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS ND THIS EVENING AND REACH NRN MN LATE TONIGHT. EARLY
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW
ONTARIO SWWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN MANITOBA TO ALONG THE MANITOBA/ND
BORDER INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AIR MASS
ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE INTO THE 80S WITHIN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND BENEATH STEEP
LAPSE RATES.

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF ACCAS/CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER
SERN SASKATCHEWAN NEAR THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOME CU ALSO DEVELOPING
IN NW ND. THESE CLOUDS SUGGEST THIS AIR MASS MAY BE STARTING TO
RESPOND TO FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE ERN MT IMPULSE. AS THE
IMPULSE PROGRESSES EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NRN ND AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ALREADY STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS ACROSS NRN ND. THEREFORE...ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EWD ACROSS ND INTO MN DURING THE EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
NRN MN.

..MT...
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM SWRN INTO SRN MT THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED ALONG/S OF A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NE TO SW MT. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS S OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/N OF THE BOUNDARY. STORMS NEAR THE
FRONT MAY BECOME ORGANIZED...BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND A
CATEGORICAL RISK.

..CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG 1. A FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH
CENTRAL FL...2. WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND 3. ANY
OTHER BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER
827 FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA

..SERN AZ/SRN NM/SW TX...
GIVEN WEAK UPPER FORCING...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN AZ/NM AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SW TX
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM SERN AZ THROUGH SWRN NM TO ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IN SW TX AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.

.PETERS.. 05/18/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0828

ACUS11 KWNS 181852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181852
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-182115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN AZ...SWRN NM...FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181852Z - 182115Z

STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM HAIL DIAMETERS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH POSSIBLE.

STORMS WERE ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE WHITE MTNS OF ERN AZ...AS WELL
AS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF WRN NM AT 19Z. MEANWHILE...OTHER
STORMS WERE STRUGGLING ALONG THE SACRAMENTO MTNS OF SRN NM.
CONTINUED HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO
DEVELOP...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES. WIND
PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SEVERE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF PULSE AND MULTICELL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE/PROPAGATE SWD WITH TIME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCH ACROSS SRN NM/FAR W TX AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY.

OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER S INTO FAR W TX...WHERE WRN EDGE OF
STRATUS WAS ERODING. SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXIST IN
THIS REGION...

.JEWELL.. 05/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31800734 31820774 32550832 33010911 33230995 33531030
33941044 34270994 34330948 34250916 34130840 34280768
34120708 33310519 31920470 30810367 29570275 28950318
29250404 29780459 30690506 31350610 31720650

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0827

ACUS11 KWNS 181752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181752
FLZ000-182015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181752Z - 182015Z

SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS IN THREE PRIMARY
AREAS LISTED BELOW...WITH MOST INTENSE CELLS POSING RISK OF HAIL OR
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. THREAT ATTM APPEARS TOO MRGL/SHORT-LIVED FOR
WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS -- INCLUDING SUPPLEMENTAL NON/ASOS DATA --
INDICATES DIFFUSE COLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR DAB-OCF...THEN SSWWD
INTO WEAK MESOLOW OVER TBW REGION. BULK OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...WHICH IS FCST TO CONTINUE
DRIFTING SWD THROUGH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. S OF
FRONT...SUBSTANTIAL HEATING/MIXING ALREADY IS UNDERWAY...DROPPING
SFC DEW POINTS INTO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S F WELL INLAND FROM LOWER
KISSIMMEE VALLEY SWD TOWARD NRN/ERN COLLIER COUNTY. MORE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DEW POINTS WILL SURROUND INLAND
MIXING ZONE...SUPPORTING MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND ALSO COLLOCATE
WITH APPARENT CONVERGENCE MAXIMA. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES THESE
PRINCIPAL FOCI...
1. N-CENTRAL FL FRONTAL/SEA BREEZE BLEND FROM MARION/LAKE COUNTIES
ESEWD TOWARD ERN ORANGE/SEMINOLE COUNTIES
2. HERNANDO-CHARLOTTE COUNTIES INVOF W COAST SEA BREEZE AND MESOLOW
3. PURE SEA BREEZE ALONG SE COAST BETWEEN VRB-HST...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO COASTLINE GIVEN AMBIENT DEEP-LAYER WLYS.

VWP AND RUC WIND PROFILES INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR BUT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FLOW -- BENEATH SUBTROPICAL JET -- RESULTING IN
POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE VENTING OF CONVECTIVE PLUMES ALOFT AND
ENHANCED MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. FURTHER LOCALIZED
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ALONG BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS.

.EDWARDS.. 05/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

26838002 26408002 25948007 25708014 25408024 25278044
25258063 25508049 25738043 26348030 27058041 27728089
26918106 26698099 26118092 25938128 25948163 26888190
27388221 27778234 28248237 28728212 29068179 29088149
28958115 28518076 27968048

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181732
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT...NRN WY
AND EXTREME SWRN SD...

..SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY...
WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SPREADING SSEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
UPPER/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THIS
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER MI WWD THROUGH SRN MN TO ALONG THE
SD/NEB BORDER...AND THEN WNWWD INTO CENTRAL MT.

..MT...
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND AT LEAST ONE LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE
NOW TRANSLATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN
LARGE SCALE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH COLD FRONT PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR TSTMS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. WEAK ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING AND INCREASING TO
WSWLY WITH HEIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS. THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES INDICATE THAT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH LEAD IMPULSE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS ERN
MT/ND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SSELY LLJ STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN EWD PROGRESSION OF TSTMS INTO ERN MT/ WRN ND.
HOWEVER...THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT EWD INTO THE DEEPER AND COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER LOCATED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY
REACHES WRN ND.

..NERN WY AND EXTREME SWRN SD...
ALTHOUGH FORCING AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS
REGION THAN IN MT...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS INITIATE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID/LATE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY.

..PARTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ACROSS NRN MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AIDED BY ASCENT WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE MORE QUICKLY SEWD THAN THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SRN MN AND WRN/CENTRAL WI DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SOME SURFACE HEATING BENEATH ERN EXTENT OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD PROVED FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...
BUT GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.

FARTHER W...DESPITE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT IN A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT... DIURNAL
HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SD/NEB...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...SO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
SINCE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW MANY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ATTM.

..SRN FL PENINSULA...
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THIS REGION
WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUPPORTING
TSTMS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EWD
ACROSS SRN FL ON SATURDAY AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...GIVEN
20-25 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL ATOP ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

.PETERS.. 05/18/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181618
SWODY1
SPC AC 181615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND MN...

..ND/MN...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...WITH SEVERAL WEAK UPPER FEATURES ROTATING ATOP
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF
CANADA...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HINTS AT ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO ND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MN TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE MANITOBA/ND BORDER. ANOTHER
WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE MOT AREA SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST OF
DIK. STRONG HEATING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THESE
BOUNDARIES...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...WILL RESULT IN
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CAP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CORES AS
ACTIVITY MOVES FROM ND INTO MN DURING THE EVENING.

..MT...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN MT.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT. RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS...WHILE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AID POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS. STORMS MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.

..FL...
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA TODAY. FULL SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
FRONT...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. DEEP /ALBEIT WEAK/ WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST-COAST SEA
BREEZE...WHERE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD ALONG SEA BREEZE/COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE.

..SRN NM/SW TX...
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NM AND
WEST TX INTO THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING FROM THE ELP AREA
NORTHWARD TOWARD RUI. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS COUPLED WITH 15-25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THIS
REGION TODAY.

.HART/JEWELL.. 05/18/2007

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KJAX [181552]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KJAX 181552
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1152 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH 30.20N 81.85W
05/17/2007 E50.00 MPH DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 50 MILES AN HOUR ON LAKE SHORE
BOULEVARD.

0520 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH 30.20N 81.85W
05/17/2007 E50.00 MPH DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

ESTIMATED WIND GUST 50 MPH ON LAKE SHORE BLVD.

0532 PM HAIL 4 WSW DOWNTOWN JACKSONV 30.31N 81.72W
05/17/2007 E0.75 INCH DUVAL FL PUBLIC

REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CASSAT AVENUE AND
NORMANDY BLVD.

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N DOWNTOWN JACKSONVIL 30.38N 81.66W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN INCLUDING ONE TREE ON A HOUSE.
NO INJURIES REPORTED.

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE 30.33N 81.66W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EOC REPORTS COMMERCIAL BUSINESS WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AS
WELL AS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AT THE CORNER
OF LEM TURNER ROAD AND ROWE AVENUE.

0536 PM HAIL 4 NNE DOWNTOWN JACKSONV 30.39N 81.63W
05/17/2007 M0.75 INCH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO REPORTED 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND MINOR LIMB DAMAGE.

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE 30.33N 81.66W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREE ON A HOUSE AT 1216 PANGOLA RD.

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE 30.33N 81.66W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

POWERLINES ON ROADWAY AT 2388 HILLY ROAD.

0617 PM TSTM WND DMG JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS 30.25N 81.79W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL PUBLIC

2 OAK TREES DAMAGED, BROKEN LIMBS IN SAN MATEO, PEACH
HARBOR SUBDIVISION, STRONG WINDS PRECEDED THE DAMAGE.

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH 30.19N 81.86W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL PUBLIC

TREE ON ROOF OF HOUSE ON MIAMI ROAD NEAR NORMANDY AND
ROMONA. ALSO TREE ON CARPORT ON 5TH AVE OFF LEM TURNER.

&&

$$

MH

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KTBW [181357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 181357
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
957 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM TORNADO FRUITVILLE 27.33N 82.46W
05/17/2007 SARASOTA FL BROADCAST MEDIA

EF-0 TORNADO DAMAGED TRUSSES ON A BUILDING UNDER
CONSTRUCTION IN FRUITVILLE

&&

$$

JILLSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181246
SWODY1
SPC AC 181244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS ND AND NW MN...

..SYNOPSIS...
ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO EARLY SAT AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
PAC NW...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND A LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DRIFT EWD. A SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED
WAVE OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL CREST THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
RIDGE AND MOVE ESEWD OVER NRN MN BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE A BROADER
SCALE NRN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS HUDSON BAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
HUDSON BAY WAVE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MANITOBA AND DRIVE
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS NE MT/ND/NW MN BY EARLY SAT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS ND/MN.

..ND/NW MN AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH
VALLEY...WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE NWD RETURN OF THE MOIST MARITIME AIR
MASS FROM THE GULF BASIN TO THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON STRONG SURFACE HEATING
AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. THE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND A RELATIVELY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WILL CONFINE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE AREAS OF DEEPEST MIXING AND
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL ND WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 88-90 F WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT MIXING TO WEAKEN THE CAP /PER 12Z BIS AND ABR
SOUNDINGS/...AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE
REMNANT LEE CYCLONE/TRIPLE POINT. CONVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP
ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT AND SPREAD SEWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS ERN ND AND NW MN. WARM SECTOR MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR AFTERNOON
MIXING...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THUS...EXPECT A
MIX OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. THE
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND WEAK TO MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREATS.

..SRN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S...STRONG
SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW AND S CENTRAL MT SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PROXIMITY TO
THE SRN FRINGE OF THE 25-30 KT MID LEVEL WLYS COULD ALLOW A FEW OF
THE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE STORMS WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING.

..SRN NM THIS AFTERNOON...
A DISTINCT SRN STREAM PERSISTS OVER NRN MEXICO AND DEEP S TX...BUT
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS TX AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO HAS SHUNTED THE
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SWWD TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NE MEXICO.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S HAVE SPREAD
INTO S/SW NM ON ELY POST FRONTAL FLOW. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE N OF THE MID-UPPER JET...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HAIL...ALONG AND E OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS.

.THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 05/18/2007

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KMQT [181203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 181203
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
802 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM HAIL 2 SW MICHIGAMME 46.51N 88.14W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH BARAGA MI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0725 PM HAIL 1 N MICHIGAMME 46.55N 88.11W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH MARQUETTE MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

0940 PM HAIL 4 SE SKANDIA 46.34N 87.17W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC

&&

$$

MZIKA

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180935
SWOD48
SPC AC 180935

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0435 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

..DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF AK AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PAC NW BY DAY 3...AND CONTINUE
SEWD TO THE NRN ROCKIES BY MON /DAY 4/...AND THEN PROGRESS OVER THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS BY TUE-WED /DAYS 5-6/. THE LATEST GFS/MREF AND
ECMWF FORECASTS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
THROUGH DAY 5...WHEREAS INCREASING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH FROM DAY 6 INTO DAY 8 OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES.

LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE ELY/SELY ACROSS
THE GULF BASIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO SPREAD NWD IN AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MON /DAY 4/
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND HIGH
PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN ROCKIES TROUGH. SEVERAL
DAYS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO APPROACH 60 F...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THE SEVERE THREAT AREA SHOULD
EXPAND SWD ON TUE /DAY 5/ AS A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS SWD OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...AND AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM S TO N
WHILE THE ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.THOMPSON.. 05/18/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180540
SWODY2
SPC AC 180539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT...NRN WY
AND EXTREME SWRN SD...

..SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY...
WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/NRN PLAINS AND EDGE TOWARD THE DIVIDE IN MT. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM CENTRAL MT SEWD TO THE SD/NEB BORDER...AND
THEN EWD INTO LOWER MI BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A SLOW MOVING COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND INHIBIT RICHER GULF MOISTURE
FROM RETURNING NWD INTO THE STATES DURING THIS PERIOD.

..MT...
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN LARGE SCALE LIFTING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S...THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. WEAK ELY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...VEERING TO WSWLY WITH HEIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATES
THAT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD EWD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND OVERNIGHT AS
SLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN ND. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS
WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT EWD
INTO THE DEEPER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER LOCATED NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

..NERN WY AND EXTREME SWRN SD...
FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION THAN IN MT...
THOUGH STRONG HEATING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP... MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH A
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID/LATE
EVENING.

..CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
DESPITE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG COLD FRONT IN A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SD/NEB...WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. SINCE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING HOW MANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP...ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ATTM.

..SRN FL PENINSULA...
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA AND GIVEN
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DUE TO WLY WINDS ALOFT LOCATED ABOVE
RELATIVELY DEEP ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

.IMY.. 05/18/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180535
SWODY1
SPC AC 180533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN ND INTO NRN MN...

..SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN TWO THIRDS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ENEWD THROUGH WRN CANADA WILL CREST TOP
OF UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH S CNTRL CANADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR COLD FRONT DRAPED E-W
ACROSS CANADA TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT A WEAK SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A TROUGH
OR DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW COASTAL AREA.

..ERN ND THROUGH NRN MN...

PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
REGION WILL BE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIKELIHOOD OF A CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW AXIS OF SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS ND AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS TO SWLY. DEWPOINTS MAY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S AS MIXING COMMENCES DURING THE DAY. PLUME OF WARM
AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WILL SPREAD EWD
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS ALONG
WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
AND 8+ C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE AXIS NEAR 1000 J/KG
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO PARTS OF WRN MN. THE CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE AS MIXING WEAKENS THE CAP.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAY EXIST WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER LIFT
ALONG SWD ADVANCING FRONT AND ON NERN PERIPHERY OF EML FROM PARTS OF
NERN ND INTO NRN MN...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
FRIDAY EVENING. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH SEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS INTO THE EVENING.

..MT...

SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN POST FRONTAL
REGION MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SWRN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SRN EXTENT OF
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NW COAST MAY ALSO GLANCE THE NRN ROCKIES AND INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OF CNTRL MT. PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THIS REGION AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...AND THIS
MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..ERN AZ THROUGH NM...

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS IN THIS
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT SEVERE COVERAGE
AND STORM ORGANIZATION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE
THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

.DIAL/CROSBIE.. 05/18/2007

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KEPZ [180508]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 180508
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1108 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM HAIL MIMBRES 32.86N 107.98W
05/17/2007 E1.50 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER RELAYED REPORT OF 1 1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN
TOWN OF MIMBRES. ALSO, NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERED THE
GROUND AT HIS LOCATION A MILE SOUTH OF TOWN.

&&

$$

FAUSETT

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KLZK [180442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 180442
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1142 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG CADDO GAP 34.40N 93.62W
05/15/2007 MONTGOMERY AR PUBLIC

THERE WERE FIVE TREES BLOWN DOWN IN YARD...WITH A LOT OF
LIMBS BLOWN DOWN ON THE HOUSE.

&&

$$

58

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