SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181852
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-182115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN AZ...SWRN NM...FAR W TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181852Z - 182115Z
STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM HAIL DIAMETERS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH POSSIBLE.
STORMS WERE ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE WHITE MTNS OF ERN AZ...AS WELL
AS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF WRN NM AT 19Z. MEANWHILE...OTHER
STORMS WERE STRUGGLING ALONG THE SACRAMENTO MTNS OF SRN NM.
CONTINUED HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO
DEVELOP...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES. WIND
PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SEVERE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF PULSE AND MULTICELL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE/PROPAGATE SWD WITH TIME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCH ACROSS SRN NM/FAR W TX AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER S INTO FAR W TX...WHERE WRN EDGE OF
STRATUS WAS ERODING. SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXIST IN
THIS REGION...
.JEWELL.. 05/18/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
31800734 31820774 32550832 33010911 33230995 33531030
33941044 34270994 34330948 34250916 34130840 34280768
34120708 33310519 31920470 30810367 29570275 28950318
29250404 29780459 30690506 31350610 31720650
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