KKEY [130348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 130348
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1148 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1134 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DUCK KEY 24.78N 80.92W
09/12/2012 M40 MPH MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL MESONET

A CITIZEN WEATHER OBSERVER PROGRAM STATION AT DUCK KEY
MEASURED A NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS...OR 40
MPH...OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WIND GUST WAS PRODUCED BY A
RAPIDLY-MOVING SHOWER.


&&

$$

BS

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KPSR [130207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 130207
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
707 PM MST WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N NORTH MOUNTAIN PARK 33.64N 112.07W
09/12/2012 MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORT RECEIVED OF DOWNED TREES...LARGEST ESTIMATED 12
INCHES IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS SNAPPED TREE TRUNKS AND
BRANCHES FROM THUNDERSTORM WINDS ALONG BELL ROAD NEAR
7TH STREET AND 7TH AVENUE. STREET LIGHTS REPORTED NOT IN
OPERATION BY EMPLOYEE ALONG BELL ROAD AS WELL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1200331

$$

NOLTE

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KEWX [130116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 130116
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
816 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0746 PM TSTM WND DMG DEVINE 29.15N 98.90W
09/12/2012 MEDINA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 POWER POLES SNAPPED... POWERLINES DOWN... ROOF
DAMAGE...TREES BLOWN DOWN


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200463

$$

CVP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130044
SWODY1
SPC AC 130042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX/WRN LA...
A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN/CONCHO VALLEY AND HILL COUNTRY OF TX AS WELL AS ALONG THE
SABINE RIVER SHOULD REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE COMBINATION
OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE AS IT SETTLES SWD IN NWRN TX. BUT WEAK
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND MINIMAL BUOYANCY SHOULD MITIGATE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS.. 09/13/2012

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KPUB [130002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 130002
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
602 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0557 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 ESE HILLSIDE 38.25N 105.53W
09/12/2012 M0.66 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0514 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S AIR FORCE ACADEMY 38.93N 104.85W
09/12/2012 M1.48 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW SOUTH FORK 37.63N 106.67W
09/12/2012 M0.75 INCH RIO GRANDE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0316 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 S MONUMENT 39.05N 104.88W
09/12/2012 M0.94 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0315 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.85N 104.85W
09/12/2012 M1.21 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0309 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.88N 104.87W
09/12/2012 M1.12 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL SINCE 8 AM.

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NE AIR FORCE ACADEMY 39.03N 104.80W
09/12/2012 M1.00 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0154 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N WOODLAND PARK 39.02N 105.05W
09/12/2012 M1.06 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0109 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 ESE TEXAS CREEK 38.37N 105.46W
09/12/2012 M1.18 INCH FREMONT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0109 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW BLACK FOREST 38.96N 104.75W
09/12/2012 M0.75 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1143 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.87N 104.87W
09/12/2012 M1.00 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1130 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.85N 104.85W
09/12/2012 M0.80 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0.20 INCHES FELL SINCE 924 AM.

1113 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.90N 104.87W
09/12/2012 M0.82 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL SINCE 8 AM.

0815 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE CASCADE 38.94N 104.95W
09/12/2012 M0.45 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED IN THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. MOST FELL SINCE
515AM MDT.


&&

$$

MN

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KLCH [122328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 122328
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL NEW IBERIA 30.01N 91.82W
09/12/2012 E0.50 INCH IBERIA LA BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT OF MARBLE-SIZED HAIL IN NEW IBERIA. RELAYED
BY KATC-TV.


&&

$$

25

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KPUB [122314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 122314
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
514 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW SOUTH FORK 37.63N 106.67W
09/12/2012 M0.75 INCH RIO GRANDE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0514 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S AIR FORCE ACADEMY 38.93N 104.85W
09/12/2012 M1.48 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MN

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KFGZ [122207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 122207
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
307 PM MST WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM FLOOD WUPATKI TRAILS 35.35N 111.57W
09/12/2012 COCONINO AZ COUNTY OFFICIAL

FLOOD DEBRIS HAS CLOSED ONE LANE OF HWY
89...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF COCVERING SUBDIVION STREETS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1200099

$$

DGV

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KLIX [122203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 122203
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
503 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM HAIL MORGANZA 30.74N 91.59W
09/12/2012 E0.75 INCH POINTE COUPEE LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ELECTRICITY IS ALSO OUT AT COMMS CENTER.


&&

$$

PGRIGSBY

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KFGZ [122138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 122138
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
238 PM MST WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM FLOOD WUPATKI TRAILS 35.35N 111.57W
09/12/2012 COCONINO AZ COUNTY OFFICIAL

ONE INCH WATER OVER BRANDIS WAY


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1200098

$$

DGV

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KPUB [122117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 122117
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
317 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0316 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 S MONUMENT 39.05N 104.88W
09/12/2012 M0.94 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0315 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.85N 104.85W
09/12/2012 M1.21 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0309 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.88N 104.87W
09/12/2012 M1.12 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL SINCE 8 AM.

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NE AIR FORCE ACADEMY 39.03N 104.80W
09/12/2012 M1.00 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0154 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N WOODLAND PARK 39.02N 105.05W
09/12/2012 M1.06 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0109 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW BLACK FOREST 38.96N 104.75W
09/12/2012 M0.75 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0109 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 ESE TEXAS CREEK 38.37N 105.46W
09/12/2012 M1.18 INCH FREMONT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1143 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.87N 104.87W
09/12/2012 M1.00 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1130 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.85N 104.85W
09/12/2012 M0.80 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0.20 INCHES FELL SINCE 924 AM.

1113 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.90N 104.87W
09/12/2012 M0.82 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL SINCE 8 AM.

0815 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE CASCADE 38.94N 104.95W
09/12/2012 M0.45 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED IN THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. MOST FELL SINCE
515AM MDT.


&&

$$

MN

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KPUB [122116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 122116
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
316 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.85N 104.85W
09/12/2012 M1.21 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MNO

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KPUB [122110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 122110
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NE AIR FORCE ACADEMY 39.03N 104.80W
09/12/2012 M1.00 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0309 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.88N 104.87W
09/12/2012 M1.12 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL SINCE 8 AM.


&&

$$

MNO

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1947

ACUS11 KWNS 122051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122051
TXZ000-NMZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122051Z - 122215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF W TX. LIMITED STORM STRENGTH/DURATION WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A
N/S-ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS LYING NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM BORDER
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD/ENEWD INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IN PLACE SOUTH OF A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES...WILL MAINTAIN
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 500-800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LACKING. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE OVER CNTRL PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH
PLAINS IS INHIBITING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.
REGARDLESS...AROUND 20-25 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW -- PER
LUBBOCK/AMARILLO VWP DATA -- MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR A
FEW MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS. STORM
STRENGTH/DURATION...AND THE OVERALL SVR THREAT...SHOULD BE LIMITED
BY THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/DEEP SHEAR.

..COHEN/PETERS.. 09/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 32690306 33920297 35020289 35210226 35390179 35600137
35590099 34970074 34210042 33590039 33060089 32440220
32330282 32690306

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KLCH [122048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 122048
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
348 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0346 PM FUNNEL CLOUD LAFAYETTE 30.22N 92.03W
09/12/2012 LAFAYETTE LA PUBLIC

NO TOUCHDOWN.


&&

$$

JTRARES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1946

ACUS11 KWNS 121959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121959
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-122200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...ERN PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121959Z - 122200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED SVR MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP FRONT LYING FROM S-CNTRL
KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE IS BEING AUGMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
OVER THE ERN FLANK OF AN ACCAS FIELD IN ERN PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LACKING THUS FAR -- OWING TO INHIBITION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML AND RETURN OF AN ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED
MOIST AIR MASS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL INSOLATION MAY AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AMIDST
200-400 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS. AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO COULD ALSO EVOLVE FROM ONGOING SHALLOW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NOTED
EAST OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MESO-LOW FROM NWRN OK INTO
S-CNTRL KS...WHERE DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS EXIST. DCAPE OF
1000-1400 J/KG AND SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER 35F WOULD
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT INTENSE MICROBURSTS YIELDING A VERY ISOLATED
SVR WIND THREAT. THE DURATION OF ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE CURTAILED
BY THE UNDERCUTTING FRONT...WHILE LACKING INSTABILITY/DEEP SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

..COHEN/PETERS.. 09/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35719995 34860004 33679991 33660020 34070041 34790065
36010088 36550033 36970001 37919947 38159841 37919784
37509782 36989817 36599855 36229903 35719995

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121957
SWODY1
SPC AC 121955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK. HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES A BIT FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN NEB TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POST-FRONTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...REF SWOMCD 1946 AND 1945 REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SCNTRL KS INTO NWRN TX AND FOR TSTMS ACROSS
SWRN LA TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST.

..DARROW.. 09/12/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012/

...S-CNTRL KS SSWWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD/SSEWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS TODAY...EXTENDING FROM THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN OK TO SERN NM BY
LATE TONIGHT. FRONTAL ASCENT...LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY THE BAROCLINIC
CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING A N/S DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SFC-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE FRONT. THE INFLUX OF ONLY PARTIALLY
MODIFIED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH AN EML/DRY PROFILES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER 12Z RAOBS. AND...WITH SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AOA 30F...ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WITH
VERY SPORADIC SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDLESS...THE
DURATION OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE CURTAILED BY THE UNDERCUTTING
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY
GREATER...THOUGH THE ANTICIPATED ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE SVR THREAT.

...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND SWRN/S-CNTRL LA...
RELATIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUCCEEDING A NWD-ADVANCING
MARINE SFC BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MIDDLE-70S DEWPOINTS WILL
LIE BENEATH DRIER AIR ALOFT W OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG
AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DCAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT...SHOULD AID IN
SPORADIC SVR WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS THAT REGENERATE
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1945

ACUS11 KWNS 121955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121955
LAZ000-TXZ000-122200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1945
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND
SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121955Z - 122200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS ON A VERY
ISOLATED BASIS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITHIN THE ZONE OF RELATIVELY RICH
MOISTURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF A MARINE-LAYER FRONT. AS CONVECTION
REGENERATES PROGRESSIVELY INLAND INVOF THE COMPOSITE
BOUNDARY...INFLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER
90S WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED OUT INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS WHERE CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING HAS NOT YET TAKEN PLACE...WHILE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DCAPE OF 1000 TO 1300 J/KG ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. AS
SUCH...A VERY ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON --
IF STORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...WITH 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AOB 20 KT PER REGIONAL
VWP DATA...THE THREAT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... PERSISTENCE...AND
STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED.

..COHEN/PETERS.. 09/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31449472 31129316 30499225 30179207 30009242 30069316
30319381 30639429 30749472 30679503 30399525 30059544
29579607 29379665 29239717 29279762 29599766 29879763
30549712 31089620 31449472

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KPUB [121955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 121955
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
155 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0154 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N WOODLAND PARK 39.02N 105.05W
09/12/2012 M1.06 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MNO

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KLCH [121954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 121954
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
254 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM FUNNEL CLOUD DELCAMBRE 29.95N 91.99W
09/12/2012 VERMILION LA PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AT THE INTERSECTION
OF HWY 82 AND HWY 14 MOVING TO THE EAST.


&&

$$

JNUNN

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KGJT [121952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 121952
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
151 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0149 PM DEBRIS FLOW 8 NNE BLUFF 37.39N 109.51W
09/12/2012 SAN JUAN UT CO-OP OBSERVER

MUD AND WATER ON HWY 191 ABOUT 8 MILES NORTH OF BLUFF


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200498

$$

TB

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KCHS [121924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 121924
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
323 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.02N 80.86W
09/12/2012 CHATHAM GA LIFEGUARD

TYBEE ISLAND LIFEGUARDS REPORTED A FEW WEAK RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200771

$$

SPR

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KPUB [121924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 121924
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
124 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0109 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW BLACK FOREST 38.96N 104.75W
09/12/2012 M0.75 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MNO

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KGJT [121916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 121916
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
116 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN HOVENWEEP NM 37.39N 109.08W
09/12/2012 M1.20 INCH SAN JUAN UT CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200497

$$

TB

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KGJT [121915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 121915
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
114 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN BLACK CYN VIS CNTR 38.55N 107.68W
09/12/2012 M1.77 INCH MONTROSE CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200496

$$

TB

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KPUB [121911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 121911
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
111 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0109 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 ESE TEXAS CREEK 38.37N 105.46W
09/12/2012 M1.18 INCH FREMONT CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MNO

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KPUB [121720]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 121720
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1113 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.90N 104.87W
09/12/2012 M0.82 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL SINCE 8 AM.


&&

$$

MNOSKO

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121700
SWODY2
SPC AC 121658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CONUS...

DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK SRN STREAM OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME. LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
ESEWD INTO NRN NM AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC FRONT TO ELONGATE ITSELF
FROM SRN MO...SWWD INTO TX WHERE SHALLOW NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
DRIVE THE WIND SHIFT TO NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER OF THE BIG BEND
REGION BY 13/18Z. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED WITHIN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND THESE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE WEAKLY SHEARED AND MODESTLY BUOYANT. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE REMOVED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS AS THE THREAT OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS MARGINAL.

WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WILL EXTEND
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND TOO WEAKLY
SHEARED/FORCED TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE.

..DARROW.. 09/12/2012

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KLCH [121633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 121633
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FUNNEL CLOUD CAMERON 29.80N 93.30W
09/12/2012 CAMERON LA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR CAMERON. THE FUNNEL
NEVER REACHED THE GROUND.


&&

$$

DJONES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121626
SWODY1
SPC AC 121624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S-CNTRL KS SSWWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD/SSEWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS TODAY...EXTENDING FROM THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN OK TO SERN NM BY
LATE TONIGHT. FRONTAL ASCENT...LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY THE BAROCLINIC
CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING A N/S DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SFC-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE FRONT. THE INFLUX OF ONLY PARTIALLY
MODIFIED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH AN EML/DRY PROFILES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER 12Z RAOBS. AND...WITH SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AOA 30F...ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WITH
VERY SPORADIC SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDLESS...THE
DURATION OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE CURTAILED BY THE UNDERCUTTING
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY
GREATER...THOUGH THE ANTICIPATED ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE SVR THREAT.

...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND SWRN/S-CNTRL LA...
RELATIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUCCEEDING A NWD-ADVANCING
MARINE SFC BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MIDDLE-70S DEWPOINTS WILL
LIE BENEATH DRIER AIR ALOFT W OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG
AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DCAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT...SHOULD AID IN
SPORADIC SVR WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS THAT REGENERATE
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/12/2012

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KHGX [121619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 121619
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1119 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 SE ANGLETON 29.13N 95.38W
09/12/2012 BRAZORIA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTING BY ANGLETON P.D. NEAR FM 2004 AND
FM 523 AT THE BRAZORIA WILDLIFE REFUGE.

1047 AM FUNNEL CLOUD ALVIN 29.43N 95.25W
09/12/2012 BRAZORIA TX PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTING NEAR HOME DEPOT AT HIGHWAY 6 AND
HIGHWAY 35.

1053 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 E ALVIN 29.43N 95.18W
09/12/2012 GALVESTON TX PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTING NEAR THE BAYOU WILDLIFE PARK ON FM
517 JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 35.


&&

$$

DHELVY

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KPSR [121540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 121540
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM FLOOD QUEEN CREEK 33.24N 111.64W
09/12/2012 MARICOPA AZ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MULTIPLE LOCATIONS REPORTED... ELLSWORTH RD. AND
GERMANN RD.... QUEEN CREEK RD. AND HAWES RD.... QUEEN
CREEK RD. AND SOSSAMAN RD.... RIGGS RD. AND SOSSAMANA
RD.... POWER RD. AND RIGGS RD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1200330

$$

PSR

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KDMX [121459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 121459
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
958 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM TSTM WND DMG WSW POMEROY 42.55N 94.69W
09/07/2012 CALHOUN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS LARGE TREE BRANCHES GREATER THAN SIX INCHES IN
DIAMETER DOWNED THROUGHOUT TOWN. LOOSE METAL SHEETING
FROM AN UNKNOWN SOURCE ALSO OBSEVRED BLOWING THROUGH
TOWN.


&&
DELAYED STORM REPORTS FROM SEPTEMBER 7.
$$

SKOW

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KDMX [121434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 121434
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
934 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 AM HAIL 2 ESE CHURDAN 42.14N 94.44W
09/07/2012 E1.50 INCH GREENE IA PUBLIC

SOME HAIL STONES POSSIBLY LARGER.

1210 AM HAIL 2 SE CHURDAN 42.14N 94.45W
09/07/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE IA PUBLIC


&&
DELAYED STORM REPORTS FROM SEPTEMBER 7.
$$

SKOW

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KPUB [121424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 121424
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
824 AM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE CASCADE 38.94N 104.95W
09/12/2012 M0.45 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED IN THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. MOST FELL SINCE
515AM MDT.


&&

$$

PJC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121237
SWODY1
SPC AC 121235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN...WHICH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CNTRL
CANADA. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS NEWD FROM NRN MB INTO FAR
NRN QC WHILE THE OTHER DROPS SEWD THROUGH SK AND INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE...WEAKLY PHASED WITH THE MEAN
CANADIAN TROUGH...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN MB
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER
MS VALLEY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
ERN STATES.

...S-CNTRL PLAINS...
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD WITH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID-50S. WEAKER SLY FLOW AND
THE PRESENCE OF A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE SWD PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THIS MODERATELY
MOIST AIR MASS AROUND PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...NWRN OK...AND S-CNTRL KS. THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION
IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEPLY MIXED /LCLS AROUND 9 KFT/ BUT THE INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY DEPICT MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG WHICH
IS PREDICATED ON DRY ADIABATIC PROFILES THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB. AS
SUCH...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE W MAY ACT TO LIMIT HEATING AND MIXING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA FREE OF CONVECTION. IF THE PROFILES DO
MIX...LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WOULD PROMOTE AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

...SRN ROCKIES...
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIR MASS TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE TSTMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAIN BUT A FEW
STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR AS UPDRAFTS BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE
PRECIPITATION LOADING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WHERE NELY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. ATTM THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..MOSIER.. 09/12/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120810
SWOD48
SPC AC 120810

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 5 AS RICHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF BELT OF STRONGER WLYS OVER
THE NRN TIER STATES.

DAY 6-8...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
DETAILS SUCH AS DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION...TIMING AND HANDLING
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOWER OVERALL PREDICTABILITY. PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR MAY BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR OVER THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS MONDAY /DAY 6/...AND AT LEAST
SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH...CONTINUING INTO THE NERN STATES DAY 7. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE 6-8 PERIOD REMAINS
LOW DUE TO DISPERSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

..DIAL.. 09/12/2012

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KVEF [120737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120737
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1237 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNW BAKER 35.35N 116.10W
09/12/2012 SAN BERNARDINO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED FLASH FLOODING 5 MILES
NORTH OF BAKER ALONG STATE ROUTE 127. ONE VEHICLE WAS
STUCK IN RUNNING FLOOD WATER WITH WATER AS HIGH AS THE
DASHBOARD. THE PERSON WAS STILL IN THE VEHICLE AND FIRST
RESPONDERS WERE ENROUTE.


&&

$$

KENNEDY

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120731
SWODY3
SPC AC 120730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

COMPACT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION...REACHING THE NERN U.S. BY 12Z SATURDAY.
SEVERAL SRN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES. AT THE
SFC A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EWD AND SEWD...LIKELY REACHING THE NERN U.S.
SWWD INTO SRN TX BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

...SERN TX...

WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE TX.
HOWEVER...WHERE DIABATIC WARMING DOES OCCUR MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000
J/KG MAY DEVELOP GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. VORTICITY
MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AREA...

THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ATTENDING THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED ALONG NERN EXTENSION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. BANDS OF SHALLOW...LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

..DIAL.. 09/12/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120532
SWODY1
SPC AC 120530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER CANADA AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CONSIDERABLE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL
CANADA...AND A SECONDARY/CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND REACH THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE WILL
BE A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A MODEST DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WARM
SECTOR /MAINLY 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO NORTH TX AND
OK/...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY AMPLE HEATING/AGGRESSIVE
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT
/AND LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

WHILE CAPE /500 J PER KG ML/ AND VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KT OR LESS 0-6
KM/ WILL BE WEAK OVERALL...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/BUOYANCY MAY EXIST
FOR SOME STRONGER/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RELATIVELY HOT/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES SEEM PRUDENT GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPORADIC STRONG/PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FOR
A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD TODAY...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
ASCENT/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A MOIST AIRMASS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME STRONGER TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS INCLUDING
NORTHERN AZ INTO NM. HOWEVER...MINIMAL OVERALL BUOYANCY SHOULD CURB
THE SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...AND PROBABILITIES DO NOT CURRENTLY
APPEAR WARRANTED FOR THE REGION.

..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 09/12/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120507
SWODY2
SPC AC 120505

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE FROM THE NRN PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH...VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL SHEAR EWD
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SHOULD
PERSIST OVER THE SERN STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD DURING THE DAY.

...SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL TX INTO SERN OK...

NEAR SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SELY AND RICHER GULF MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED TO S TX WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
THIS FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY TRANSPORTING
MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ERN TX AND SRN OK.
THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEWD ADVECTING PLUME OF MID-HIGH
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
PW FROM SWRN TX THROUGH SRN OK PORTION OF WARM SECTOR. MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...BUT SFC HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPE TO
1500-2000 J/KG...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES SWD. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE MULTICELL STORM
MODES...A FEW OF WHICH MIGHT PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
WHERE SFC HEATING CAN STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OVERALL THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

...MN INTO WRN WI...

STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ATTENDING THE
PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX AND DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF MN INTO WRN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGEST COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 09/12/2012

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