ACUS11 KWNS 122051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122051
TXZ000-NMZ000-122215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122051Z - 122215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF W TX. LIMITED STORM STRENGTH/DURATION WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A
N/S-ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS LYING NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM BORDER
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD/ENEWD INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IN PLACE SOUTH OF A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES...WILL MAINTAIN
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 500-800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LACKING. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE OVER CNTRL PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH
PLAINS IS INHIBITING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.
REGARDLESS...AROUND 20-25 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW -- PER
LUBBOCK/AMARILLO VWP DATA -- MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR A
FEW MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS. STORM
STRENGTH/DURATION...AND THE OVERALL SVR THREAT...SHOULD BE LIMITED
BY THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/DEEP SHEAR.
..COHEN/PETERS.. 09/12/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32690306 33920297 35020289 35210226 35390179 35600137
35590099 34970074 34210042 33590039 33060089 32440220
32330282 32690306
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment