KMFR [190459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 190459
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
859 PM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
11/18/2007 M2.87 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR AMOUNT 9PM SATURDAY THROUGH 9PM SUNDAY AT 111
FEET ELEVATION ALONG THE COOS RIVER. 72 HOUR TOTAL 6.20
INCHES.

&&

$$

LUTZ

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KMFR [190424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 190424
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
824 PM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSE COOS BAY 43.34N 124.21W
11/18/2007 M2.22 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 8AM SUNDAY THROUGH 8PM
SUNDAY. STILL RAINING AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

LUTZ

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KMFR [190337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 190337
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
737 PM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 PM HEAVY RAIN N ELKTON 43.63N 123.57W
11/18/2007 M2.11 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR ENDING 1930 PST

&&

$$

SVEN

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KMFR [190210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 190210
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
610 PM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COOS BAY 43.38N 124.24W
11/18/2007 M1.75 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24HR ENDING 6PM

&&

$$

SVEN

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KMFR [190125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 190125
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
525 PM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 NNE POWERS 42.99N 124.01W
11/18/2007 M1.95 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24HR ENDING 5PM

&&

$$

SVEN

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KMFR [190055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 190055
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
455 PM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0454 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE SCOTTSBURG 43.67N 123.81W
11/18/2007 M1.70 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR 4PM-4PM

&&

$$

SVEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190045
SWODY1
SPC AC 190042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..S-CNTRL/SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND 00Z OBSERVED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT THIS
EVENING FROM DEEP S TX EWD INTO AR/LA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS SHIFTING
E OF THIS WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE SOME POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO
AND PERHAPS DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A GENERAL THUNDER AREA.

.MEAD.. 11/19/2007

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KMFR [190018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 190018
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
418 PM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0417 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COOS BAY 43.37N 124.22W
11/18/2007 M2.00 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 4 PM

&&

$$

PETRUCEL

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KMFR [182243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 182243
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 PM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0241 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 E SIXES 42.81N 124.42W
11/18/2007 M2.50 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM

0241 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW SITKUM 43.18N 123.87W
11/18/2007 M1.10 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 1 PM

0241 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N COOS BAY 43.41N 124.22W
11/18/2007 M1.00 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

6 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 1 PM

&&

$$

PETRUCEL

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KMFR [182230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 182230
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
230 PM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0229 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE BANDON 43.14N 124.37W
11/18/2007 E1.20 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL FROM 7AM TO 2PM.

&&

$$

HOLTZ

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KTFX [182159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 182159
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
259 PM MST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/18/2007 M60.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

DEEP CREEK RAWS

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
11/18/2007 M73.00 MPH BLAINE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0820 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SWEET GRASS 49.00N 111.96W
11/18/2007 M57.00 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET

0856 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CUT BANK 48.63N 112.33W
11/18/2007 M55.00 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH

0956 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/18/2007 M61.00 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE CHOTEAU 47.82N 112.16W
11/18/2007 M67.00 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

CHOTEAU AIRPORT

&&

$$

EK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181931
SWODY1
SPC AC 181928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SOUTH TX...
AIR MASS ACROSS COASTAL AND INLAND SECTIONS OF S TX HAVE BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE OWING TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/. CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SWD. VISIBLE IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED SOME CONVECTION AND A
FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IN S TX. GIVEN PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...ANY TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT. OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WARM GIVEN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD AWAY
FROM THIS REGION.

..PARTS OF LOWER MS VALLEY...
ERN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY OFFSHORE IN THE NWRN GULF. WEAK WAA WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY OFFSHORE...ALONG AND N OF
THIS BOUNDARY. EXTENSIVE NATURE OF CLOUDS EXTENDING NWD INTO LA
SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
INLAND OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LA AS ANY OFFSHORE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS/TRACKS NNEWD THIS AFTERNOON.

.PETERS.. 11/18/2007

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KEWX [181748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 181748
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD S LA GRANGE 29.91N 96.88W
11/18/2007 FAYETTE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM 155 CLOSED.

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD SW SCHULENBURG 29.68N 96.91W
11/18/2007 FAYETTE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM 957 CLOSED.

&&

$$

DC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181658
SWODY2
SPC AC 181657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE U.S. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
SOME AMPLIFICATION ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW REACHING THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO NRN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE ERN U.S. AS A RIDGE BUILDS EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
A TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG THE TX COAST AND PAC NW COAST...MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO BE VOID OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..TX GULF COAST...
SOME SURFACE INSOLATION COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
ALONG COASTAL REGIONS OF TX MAY SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM ON MONDAY.

..COASTAL REGIONS OF WA/NWRN ORE...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-30 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/ ATTENDANT TO
THE PACIFIC TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES/
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR OFFSHORE CONVECTION TO ALSO DEVELOP
INLAND ALONG COASTAL WA/ORE. THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD OCCUR DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...PRIOR TO EVENTUAL WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

..PARTS OF OH VALLEY...
A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING DAY 2. WLY LLJ ACCOMPANYING
THIS IMPULSE WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITH RESULTANT MOISTURE/WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FROM KY/IND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
PRECLUDING INTRODUCTION OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA.

.PETERS.. 11/18/2007

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KTFX [181636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 181636
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/18/2007 M60.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

DEEP CREEK RAWS

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
11/18/2007 M73.00 MPH BLAINE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0820 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SWEET GRASS 49.00N 111.96W
11/18/2007 M57.00 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET

0856 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CUT BANK 48.63N 112.33W
11/18/2007 M55.00 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH

&&

$$

MPJ

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KTFX [181623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 181623
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
923 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/18/2007 M60.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

DEEP CREEK RAWS

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
11/18/2007 M73.00 MPH BLAINE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0856 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CUT BANK 48.63N 112.33W
11/18/2007 M55.00 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH

&&

$$

MPJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181548
SWODY1
SPC AC 181545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY
TODAY. SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT ANY OTHER AREAS OF CONVECTION.

..SOUTH TX INTO SRN LA...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
STEADILY SWD THROUGH SOUTH TX INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A
SUBSIDENCE LAYER IS NOTED ON THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING AT MID
LEVELS...SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
SCT NEAR SURFACE BASED TSTM RE-DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS. HOWEVER...GRADUALLY WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/SUBSIDENCE
AND WEAKENING WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PRECLUDE SVR POTENTIAL WITH ANY TSTMS THAT REDEVELOP.
FURTHER EAST...DESPITE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER
THE NRN GULF...GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND POOR
LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ANY SVR
TSTM POTENTIAL OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL LA.

.CROSBIE/HALES.. 11/18/2007

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KMFR [181536]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 181536
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
736 AM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/18/2007 M1.80 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING AT 7AM.

&&

$$

HOLTZ

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KAPX [181509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 181509
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1007 AM SNOW 5 SW STANDISH 43.93N 84.03W
11/18/2007 E5.0 INCH ARENAC MI CO-OP OBSERVER

12 HOUR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 5 INCHES.

&&

$$

MPC

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KMFR [181444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 181444
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
644 AM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0516 AM HEAVY RAIN N KENO 42.13N 121.93W
11/18/2007 M0.25 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 630 AM

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [181317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 181317
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
517 AM PST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0516 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
11/18/2007 M2.68 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 5AM

&&

$$

BUNKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181257
SWODY1
SPC AC 181255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...WITH
MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT FARTHER N THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL STATES. SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVER E TX
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR E IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE GULF CST
REGION...WHILE COMPLEX NRN STREAM TROUGH REACHES WRN WA/ORE.

..SE TX INTO LA...
CONVECTION WITHIN ONGOING MCS OVER SE TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DIMINISHES WITH CONTINUED
EWD MOTION OF E TX UPR TROUGH. INFLOW OF INCREASINGLY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN SOME REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER ATOP SYSTEM COLD POOL OVER THE NWRN GULF
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SE TX/SRN LA THROUGH THE DAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. BUT WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DEEP SHEAR NEAR
UPR TROUGH AXIS SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH TONIGHT.

..WRN WA...
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN
MEMBER OF COMPLEX TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE TIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY...LIMITING THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
PERIOD OVER CSTL WA.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/18/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180941
SWOD48
SPC AC 180941

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

..DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE EVIDENT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD -- AND THAT A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP SEWD ACROSS
THE CONUS LEAVING A COLD/DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...THE
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS.

THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT ON DAY 4 /WED.
NOV. 21/...WHICH DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
MID OH VALLEY STATES. THIS RESULTS IN A LARGE -- ALBEIT GENERALLY
STABLE -- WARM SECTOR DAYS 4-5 E OF THE MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS NO WAVE...SIMPLY DRIVING A COLD FRONT STEADILY SEWD
ACROSS THE CONUS.

WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST FROM E TX DAY 4 ACROSS THE GULF
COAST THROUGH DAY 6...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THE OVERALL DEGREE OF
THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF AN AREA -- PARTICULARLY
CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BEYOND DAY 6...INCREASINGLY EXTREME MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE ANY
ATTEMPT AT DISCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT.

.GOSS.. 11/18/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180804
SWODY3
SPC AC 180802

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG/EXPAND SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS/INTO THE MIDWEST...AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WRN TROUGH.

AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN...BUT ATTM
IT APPEARS THAT DEGREE OF MOISTENING WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR
APPRECIABLE PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION. FURTHER...A CAP ATOP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST. GIVEN THIS -- IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE TO NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 11/18/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2147

ACUS11 KWNS 180741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180740
LAZ000-TXZ000-180945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180740Z - 180945Z

HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND INTO WRN
LA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...A FEW
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE POTENTIAL IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

MATURE MCS CONTINUES TO AFFECT POTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX AND THE UPPER
TX COAST EARLY TODAY. SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED WITHIN A FOCUSED
ZONE OF SLOPED ASCENT SUPPORTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER
LEVEL WAVE AND INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLD POOL/OUTFLOW
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MESOSCALE INTENSIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM GALVESTON BAY WWD ACROSS HARRIS...FORT BEND...
BRAZORIA...AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES. STRONGEST ASCENT AND DEEP
CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED GENERALLY DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL RATES TO 2
INCHES AN HOUR POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN
RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED WARM SECTOR OVER WHARTON COUNTY. IF THIS
ACTIVITY CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AND TRACK EWD/NEWD ALONG OR ACROSS THE
FRONT...INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THIS AREA COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION AS SEEN EARLIER ACROSS NORTHWEST HARRIS
COUNTY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RUC AND WRF-NMM INDICATE EFFECTIVE
SRH IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 FOR CELLS TRACKING NEAR ALONG THE
FRONT/BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AREAL COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF TORNADO/WIND HAZARD CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
SUPPORT A WATCH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CHARACTER ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

.CARBIN.. 11/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

29399478 28669573 29069602 29459583 30219460 30249371
29729381

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KEWX [180657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 180657
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1257 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM FLOOD 5 N GONZALES 29.58N 97.45W
11/17/2007 GONZALES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FARM TO MARKET ROAD 794 FROM GONZALES TO NEAR HARWOOD IS
CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

0930 PM FLOOD 7 E FLATONIA 29.69N 96.99W
11/17/2007 FAYETTE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

MUCH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FLATONIA TO SCHULENBURG IS CLOSED
DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

0945 PM FLOOD 5 S LA GRANGE 29.84N 96.88W
11/17/2007 FAYETTE TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MUCH OF HIGHWAY 77 FROM LA GRANGE TO SCHULENBURG TO
CLOSED DUE TO WATER COVERING THE ROAD.

&&

$$

PM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180616
SWODY2
SPC AC 180614

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SECOND TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO/ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...A LARGE/FLAT RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD/ESEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN AND S CENTRAL STATES.

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE TX GULF COAST...WHERE MOIST/MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
LINGER. SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE
WA COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED -30 TO -34 H5 TEMPERATURES MOVE ONSHORE. ELEVATED
SHOWERS -- AND PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO -- MAY ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEYS...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET. OVERALL
HOWEVER...THUNDER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW...AND SEVERE THREAT
BASICALLY NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 11/18/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180545
SWODY1
SPC AC 180543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD
AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS ERN THIRD
OF THE NATION AND MORE INTENSE...UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES ONTO PACIFIC
NW COAST. LOWER LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER TX IS
FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED ALONG THE GULF
COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..SERN TX INTO LA...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD OVER PARTS OF SERN TX INTO LA IN ADVANCE OF WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ESEWD. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER THE WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
MLCAPES TO AOB 1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
AND RESULTANT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
WITH ARRIVAL OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E
OF REGION.

.MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/18/2007

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KMFR [180527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180527
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
927 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0927 PM HEAVY RAIN N BANDON 43.11N 124.41W
11/17/2007 M2.13 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL MEASURED FROM 9PM FRIDAY THROUGH 9PM
SATURDAY AT FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH IN BANDON.

&&

$$

LUTZ

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KMFR [180526]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180526
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
926 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 PM HEAVY RAIN N BANDON 43.11N 124.41W
11/17/2007 M3.28 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL, 9PM FRIDAY THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY.
MEASUREMENT WAS TAKEN AT THE HARVARD STREET APARTMENTS.
FOR THE CALENDER DAY, 2.85 INCHES HAS BEEN OBSERVED THUS
FAR.

&&

$$

LUTZ

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KMFR [180513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180513
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0908 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
11/17/2007 M1.71 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT, 9PM FRIDAY TO 9PM SATURDAY. 2
DAY, 48 HOUR TOTAL OF 3.33 INCHES. LOCATION IS ALONG THE
COOS RIVER.

&&

$$

LUTZ

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