SWODY2
SPC AC 181657
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE U.S. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
SOME AMPLIFICATION ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW REACHING THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO NRN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE ERN U.S. AS A RIDGE BUILDS EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
A TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG THE TX COAST AND PAC NW COAST...MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO BE VOID OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..TX GULF COAST...
SOME SURFACE INSOLATION COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
ALONG COASTAL REGIONS OF TX MAY SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM ON MONDAY.
..COASTAL REGIONS OF WA/NWRN ORE...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-30 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/ ATTENDANT TO
THE PACIFIC TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES/
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR OFFSHORE CONVECTION TO ALSO DEVELOP
INLAND ALONG COASTAL WA/ORE. THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD OCCUR DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...PRIOR TO EVENTUAL WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
..PARTS OF OH VALLEY...
A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING DAY 2. WLY LLJ ACCOMPANYING
THIS IMPULSE WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITH RESULTANT MOISTURE/WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FROM KY/IND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
PRECLUDING INTRODUCTION OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA.
.PETERS.. 11/18/2007
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