KTFX [060058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 060058
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
658 PM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM SNOW 18 SSW FORESTGROVE 46.77N 109.28W
10/05/2012 E2.0 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TODAY. A TOTAL OF 10
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE PAST 3 DAYS. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH IS
7 INCHES. ELEVATION IS 5575 FEET.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060055
SWODY1
SPC AC 060053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
MID-SOUTH...ARKLAMISS...AND ARKLATEX REGIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE SFC FRONT WHERE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. ANY
RESIDUAL...NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION OVER CNTRL/SRN AR SHOULD
WEAKEN OWING TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND ITS SWD-DISPLACEMENT
FROM ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS STABILIZATION
WILL ALSO MINIMIZE BUOYANCY FOR ELEVATED INFLOW LAYERS SUPPORTING
CONVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...STABLE
PROFILES OWING TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING...AND THE REVERSAL OF THE COASTAL SEA/LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION...WILL SUPPRESS ANY SVR THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...ALL SVR
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 10/06/2012

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KMFL [052309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 052309
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
708 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 7 W PAHOKEE 26.82N 80.78W
10/05/2012 M49.00 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

A SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT SENSOR ON LAKE
OKEECHOBEE RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 43 KNOTS.


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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KUNR [052242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 052242
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
442 PM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 19 SE WRIGHT 43.54N 105.27W
10/05/2012 E1.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH OVERNIGHT...SNOW MELTED DURING THE DAY


&&

$$

JC

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KMEG [052242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 052242
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
542 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG N TYRONZA 35.49N 90.36W
10/05/2012 POINSETT AR TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN AND SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS ON HIGHWAY 118
NORTH TYRONZA INSIDE CITY LIMITS. ESTIMATED 65 MPH WINDS.



&&

$$

MRM

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KUNR [052239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 052239
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
439 PM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 1 NNW ARDMORE 43.04N 103.67W
10/05/2012 E2.0 INCH FALL RIVER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW FALL FROM LAST NIGHT...SNOW MELTED THROUGH
THE DAY


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [052235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 052235
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0432 PM SNOW 3 SW DOWNTOWN CUSTER 43.74N 103.65W
10/05/2012 E4.0 INCH CUSTER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATES 3 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL EVENT SNOW
FALL...ABOUT 3 INCHES ON THE GROUND...ROADS JUST
STARTING TO BECOME SNOW COVERED


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [052223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 052223
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
423 PM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM SNOW 5 NNW DOWNTOWN CUSTER 43.83N 103.63W
10/05/2012 E3.0 INCH CUSTER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

CRAZY HORSE MEMORIAL EVENT TOTAL SO FAR...STILL SNOWING


&&

$$

JC

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KOHX [052208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 052208
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
508 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM TORNADO 2 W SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.49W
10/01/2012 BEDFORD TN EMERGENCY MNGR

SURVEYS BY BEDFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...REPORTS FROM THE SHELBYVILLE
TIMES-GAZETTE...AND RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN EF0
TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN ACROSS WESTERN SHELBYVILLE.
SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG A 1 MILE
INTERMITTENT PATH FROM PARKER ROAD ACROSS RABBIT BRANCH
ROAD TO DOW ROAD. ONE OUTBUILDING WAS ALSO DESTROYED ON
DOW ROAD. MAX WINDS WERE 65 MPH.

0507 PM TORNADO 5 NNW AUBURNTOWN 36.01N 86.14W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN SOUTHWEST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF KNIGHT CREEK ROAD AND GREENVALE ROAD
NEAR STATESVILLE THEN MOVED NORTHEAST BEFORE ENDING
ALONG HIGHWAY 267 NORTHWEST OF STATESVILLE. STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH INCLUDED ONE MOBILE HOME SLIDING
OFF ITS FOUNDATION...FOUR SHEDS LOFTED OR ROLLED AND
DESTROYED...AND ALUMINUM ROOFING THAT WAS BLOWN HUNDREDS
OF YARDS. MULTIPLE TREES WERE ALSO BLOWN DOWN ALONG THE
PATH.

0531 PM TORNADO 6 NNE WATERTOWN 36.17N 86.09W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN NWS STORM SURVEY

A LOW END EF-1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR I-40 IN THE
GRANT COMMUNITY BEFORE ENDING NEAR HWY 141. SEVERAL
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON POSSUM HOLLOW RD NEAR I-40.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED ON A FARM LOCATED
SOUTH OF SP MCCLANAHAN ROAD WHERE DOZENS OF LARGE TREES
WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. A MOBILE HOME HAD SKIRTING
DAMAGE ON SP MCCLANAHAN RD AND TREES CONTINUED TO BE
BLOWN DOWN BEFORE THE TORNADO LIFTED SOUTH OF HWY 141.
PATH LENGTH 1.7 MILES. PATH WIDTH 150 YARDS. MAX WINDS
90 MPH.

0555 PM FLASH FLOOD LEBANON 36.21N 86.32W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL STREETS ACROSS THE CITY OF LEBANNON CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING

0612 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE LEBANON 36.17N 86.27W
10/01/2012 M4.00 INCH WILSON TN COCORAHS

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 W JAMESTOWN 36.43N 85.06W
10/02/2012 M3.43 INCH FENTRESS TN COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 ENE LEBANON 36.23N 86.25W
10/02/2012 M3.11 INCH WILSON TN COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORT


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200074 OHX1200073 OHX1200072 OHX1200070 OHX1200071
OHX1200075 OHX1200076

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KOHX [052207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KOHX 052207
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
506 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 PM TORNADO 6 NNE WATERTOWN 36.17N 86.09W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN NWS STORM SURVEY

A LOW END EF-1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR I-40 IN THE
GRANT COMMUNITY BEFORE ENDING NEAR HWY 141. SEVERAL
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON POSSUM HOLLOW RD NEAR I-40.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED ON A FARM LOCATED
SOUTH OF SP MCCLANAHAN ROAD WHERE DOZENS OF LARGE TREES
WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. A MOBILE HOME HAD SKIRTING
DAMAGE ON SP MCCLANAHAN RD AND TREES CONTINUED TO BE
BLOWN DOWN BEFORE THE TORNADO LIFTED SOUTH OF HWY 141.
PATH LENGTH 1.7 MILES. PATH WIDTH 150 YARDS. MAX WINDS
90 MPH.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200072

$$

SHAMBURGER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2025

ACUS11 KWNS 052129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052129
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-052330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...SWRN TN...FAR NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052129Z - 052330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...AND THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE
ISSUANCE OF A WW.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NRN CROSS AND SRN POINSETT
COUNTIES IN ERN AR APPEARS TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED AS
IT HAS CROSSED THE QUASI-STATIONARY/SLOWLY MOVING FRONT LYING NE OF
A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL AR. AS THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD TOWARD THE MS
RIVER...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR A SFC LOW NORTH OF LITTLE
ROCK POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SFC-BASED WARM SECTOR...A THREAT
FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXIST. VWP DATA NEAR LITTLE ROCK DEPICT 33 KT OF
0-6-KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AMIDST 500-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE AIDED BY A LAYER OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SVR WINDS/HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
THE STRONGEST SFC-BASED STORMS...WHILE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS SOME QUESTION REGARDING THE DURATION OF SFC-BASED
CONVECTION...AS THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT MAY UNDERCUT
ONGOING CONVECTION. IF IT APPEARS MORE WIDESPREAD SFC-BASED
CONVECTION WOULD EVOLVE...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 34179178 34029289 33959373 33999400 34159405 34419375
34719311 35099250 35579132 35799080 35898975 35628926
34898957 34449071 34179178

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KILX [052101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 052101
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
401 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM SLEET GALESBURG 40.95N 90.38W
10/05/2012 E0.00 INCH KNOX IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GEELHART

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KILX [052006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 052006
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
306 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM SLEET 1 N ABINGDON 40.82N 90.40W
10/05/2012 E0.00 INCH KNOX IL MESONET

SWOP REPORT


&&

$$

GEELHART

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 052002
SWODY1
SPC AC 052000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS AR...

...AR VICINITY...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW. TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS AR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT
AND NEAR/EAST OF A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE NOTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AR
AT MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A SEVERE
WIND GUST CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED WITH ANY NEAR-SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION.

..GUYER.. 10/05/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW RESIDES OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE COLD CORE CYCLONE ACROSS S-CNTRL
CANADA. A NUMBER OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NW/GREAT BASIN ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY THROUGH TODAY. THE COLD FRONT
MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLER/DRIER AIR...IN CONCERT WITH
LIFT FROM THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND WEAK DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD SUSTAIN SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONT...FROM MO/AR INTO THE PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THROUGH
LATER TODAY. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...ROOTED ABOVE THE
POST-FRONTAL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
NORTHEAST EXTENT ALONG THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE INTO
THE OH VALLEY.

...AR...
LATEST STORM SCALE MODELS...AS WELL AS NAM-WRF AND SREF
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG/NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC
FRONTAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS AR. MORNING SOUNDINGS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION INDICATE A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST COINCIDENT WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING OUT OF CO AND STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. FOCUSED ASCENT NEAR THE SFC WAVE AND FRONT...WHEN COUPLED
WITH A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER MLCAPE PERHAPS APPROACHING 1000
J/KG...AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW/EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A COUPLE OF INTENSE AND PERSISTENT STORM UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ANY SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL DOES APPEAR TO BE QUITE FOCUSED IN SPACE/TIME AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY FROM SRN/ERN AR TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS A MODEST UVV/QPF
SIGNAL ACROSS AR SUGGEST A SMALL INCREASE IN HAIL PROBABILITIES IS
WARRANTED WITH THIS UPDATE.

...FL...
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN INDICATED ACROSS FL PENINSULA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ALREADY GROWING ALONG
WWD MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH LITTLE OR NO
INHIBITION...EXPECT TSTMS TO EXPAND AND SPREAD GENERALLY TOWARD THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPEED SHEAR AND ONLY WEAK SUBTLE FORCING
ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/LIFETIME. NONETHELESS...A
COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS AND/OR RANDOM STORM MERGERS MAY RESULT IN
AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST OR TWO.

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KMQT [051847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 051847
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
247 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 38 NNW LITTLE GIRLS POI 47.08N 90.73W
10/05/2012 M56 MPH LSZ162 WI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED WIND GUST AT DEVILS ISLAND, WI.


&&

$$

JVOSS

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KMQT [051842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 051842
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
242 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 56 NNW FREDA 47.87N 89.31W
10/05/2012 M58 MPH LSZ263 MI C-MAN STATION

WINDS GUSTED AT OR ABOVE STORM FORCE CRITERIA OF 55 MPH
FROM 6 PM ON THE 4TH UNTIL 5 AM ON THE 5TH AT ROCK OF
AGES LIGHT.


&&

$$

JVOSS

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KMQT [051732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 051732
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
10/05/2012 M55 MPH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JVOSS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 051721
SWODY2
SPC AC 051720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...LONGWAVE TROUGH/BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL BE
PREVALENT SATURDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/GULF COAST REGION/SOUTH TX.

...ARKLATEX/GULF COAST REGION TO CAROLINAS/FL...
WELL NORTH OF THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT...SOME ELEVATED TSTMS MAY
INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN
OK/ARKLATEX. SEVERE HAIL IS UNLIKELY WITHIN A MARGINAL ELEVATED
BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT. WARM SECTOR TSTM POTENTIAL IS EVEN MORE
SUSPECT /VIRTUALLY NIL/ NEAR THE SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS
THE GULF COAST REGION/SOUTH TX.

FARTHER EAST...NEAR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SUCH AS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/VA...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD CONSIDERABLY
CURB STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL...WITH SEVERE TSTMS NOT
EXPECTED. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA WITH THE AID OF A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS...ALTHOUGH SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT/MARGINAL BUOYANCY.

..GUYER.. 10/05/2012

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KJAX [051646]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 051646
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1246 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM WATER SPOUT 3 N ST. AUGUSTINE 29.94N 81.30W
10/05/2012 ST. JOHNS FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

A WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED BY FIRE RESCUE NEAR THE
VILLAGES OF VILLANO WITH MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE TO A HOME.

1215 PM WATER SPOUT 5 NNW ST. AUGUSTINE 29.95N 81.34W
10/05/2012 ST. JOHNS FL EMERGENCY MNGR

STATE WARNING POINT RELAYED A REPORT OF A WATERSPOUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ST AUGUSTINE AIRPORT.


&&

$$

SCHASE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051632
SWODY1
SPC AC 051629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW RESIDES OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE COLD CORE CYCLONE ACROSS S-CNTRL
CANADA. A NUMBER OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NW/GREAT BASIN ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY THROUGH TODAY. THE COLD FRONT
MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLER/DRIER AIR...IN CONCERT WITH
LIFT FROM THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND WEAK DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD SUSTAIN SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONT...FROM MO/AR INTO THE PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THROUGH
LATER TODAY. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...ROOTED ABOVE THE
POST-FRONTAL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
NORTHEAST EXTENT ALONG THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE INTO
THE OH VALLEY.

...AR...
LATEST STORM SCALE MODELS...AS WELL AS NAM-WRF AND SREF
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG/NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC
FRONTAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS AR. MORNING SOUNDINGS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION INDICATE A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST COINCIDENT WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING OUT OF CO AND STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. FOCUSED ASCENT NEAR THE SFC WAVE AND FRONT...WHEN COUPLED
WITH A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER MLCAPE PERHAPS APPROACHING 1000
J/KG...AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW/EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A COUPLE OF INTENSE AND PERSISTENT STORM UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ANY SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL DOES APPEAR TO BE QUITE FOCUSED IN SPACE/TIME AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY FROM SRN/ERN AR TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS A MODEST UVV/QPF
SIGNAL ACROSS AR SUGGEST A SMALL INCREASE IN HAIL PROBABILITIES IS
WARRANTED WITH THIS UPDATE.

...FL...
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN INDICATED ACROSS FL PENINSULA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ALREADY GROWING ALONG
WWD MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH LITTLE OR NO
INHIBITION...EXPECT TSTMS TO EXPAND AND SPREAD GENERALLY TOWARD THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPEED SHEAR AND ONLY WEAK SUBTLE FORCING
ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/LIFETIME. NONETHELESS...A
COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS AND/OR RANDOM STORM MERGERS MAY RESULT IN
AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST OR TWO.

..CARBIN/SMITH.. 10/05/2012

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KILX [051630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 051630
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1130 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 AM SLEET ST. DAVID 40.49N 90.05W
10/05/2012 E0.00 INCH FULTON IL CO-OP OBSERVER

A FEW ICE PELLETS MIXED WITH RAIN


&&

$$

GEELHART

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KCYS [051618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KCYS 051618
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1017 AM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 5 SE BUFORD 41.06N 105.23W
10/05/2012 M0.8 INCH LARAMIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.05 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 10 SSE BROADWATER 41.46N 102.78W
10/05/2012 M0.1 INCH MORRILL NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.03 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 10 NE HEMINGFORD 42.42N 102.94W
10/05/2012 M2.5 INCH BOX BUTTE NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.14 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 21 WSW WARREN AF BASE 41.04N 105.23W
10/05/2012 M0.8 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.05 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 13 SSW MANVILLE 42.61N 104.71W
10/05/2012 M0.5 INCH PLATTE WY COCORAHS

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 10 ENE DALTON 41.46N 102.79W
10/05/2012 M0.1 INCH MORRILL NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.03 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 12 NW LOST SPRINGS 42.89N 105.09W
10/05/2012 M0.5 INCH CONVERSE WY COCORAHS

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.06 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 29 N TORRINGTON 42.49N 104.18W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH GOSHEN WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0.05 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW 10 ESE CRAWFORD 42.63N 103.23W
10/05/2012 E5.5 INCH DAWES NE TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 5 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

0800 AM SNOW 9 NE HARRISON 42.78N 103.76W
10/05/2012 M6.0 INCH SIOUX NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0800 AM SNOW HEMINGFORD 42.32N 103.08W
10/05/2012 M4.0 INCH BOX BUTTE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.17 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT

0800 AM SNOW 1 WNW ALLIANCE 42.11N 102.89W
10/05/2012 M0.6 INCH BOX BUTTE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0930 AM SNOW LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
10/05/2012 E3.5 INCH NIOBRARA WY 911 CALL CENTER

NIOBRARA COUNTY DISPATCH ESTIMATES 3 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW. BEGINNING TO MELT WITH ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT.


&&

$$

HAMMER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2024

ACUS11 KWNS 051617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051616
ARZ000-MOZ000-051815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051616Z - 051815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL PERSIST WITH A
TSTM CLUSTER EXPECTED TO EVOLVE E/NEWD ALONG A SLOWLY SWD-SAGGING
FRONTAL ZONE.

DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTER NE OF FSM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
HALF HOUR WITH AN EMBEDDED UPDRAFT CENTERED IN JOHNSON COUNTY HAVING
DEPICTED WEAK MID-LEVEL ROTATION. BASED ON 16Z METAR/MESONET
OBSERVATIONS THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE POST-FRONTAL WITH A 1016 MB
SYNOPTIC CYCLONE OVER YELL COUNTY...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING E/NEWD TO NEAR DYR. WITH PREVIOUS-GENERATION RUC-BASED OA
MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD LARGELY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS ACTIVITY LIKELY
EVOLVES E/NEWD AND REMAINS POST-FRONTAL.

..GRAMS/CARBIN.. 10/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 36589113 36529016 35959006 35629034 35039207 34339407
34639443 35309422 35849353 36309259 36399222 36589113

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KBOU [051616]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 051616
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1016 AM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 AM SNOW 4 E AKRON 40.16N 103.14W
10/05/2012 M0.5 INCH WASHINGTON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0900 AM SNOW 4 SE GOULD 40.48N 105.97W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH JACKSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0845 AM SNOW 3 WSW CONIFER 39.50N 105.35W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 AM SNOW 10 SE BUCKLEY AFB 39.60N 104.62W
10/05/2012 M2.2 INCH ARAPAHOE CO COCORAHS

0810 AM SNOW GENESEE 39.69N 105.27W
10/05/2012 M1.2 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW BAILEY 39.40N 105.47W
10/05/2012 M0.4 INCH PARK CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0757 AM SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
10/05/2012 M1.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW HIGHLANDS RANCH 39.55N 104.97W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 AM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.98N 105.44W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 AM SNOW 2 SW BOULDER 40.01N 105.28W
10/05/2012 M0.3 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

DAVID SKAGGS RESEARCH CENTER NOAA

0700 AM SNOW WHEAT RIDGE 39.77N 105.10W
10/05/2012 M0.7 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 6 NE DENVER 39.79N 104.88W
10/05/2012 M1.5 INCH DENVER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
10/05/2012 M0.4 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
10/05/2012 M1.2 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 4 SE DENVER 39.69N 104.91W
10/05/2012 M0.7 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 1 WSW DENVER 39.72N 104.98W
10/05/2012 M0.6 INCH DENVER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 9 WSW RUSTIC 40.65N 105.73W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH LARIMER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 2 NNW CRESCENT VILLAGE 39.96N 105.34W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

GROSS RESERVOIR

0638 AM SNOW 2 S EVERGREEN 39.60N 105.34W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW CENTENNIAL 39.60N 104.87W
10/05/2012 M0.5 INCH ARAPAHOE CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0611 AM SNOW NIWOT 40.10N 105.16W
10/05/2012 M0.6 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM SNOW DENVER INTL AIRPORT 39.87N 104.67W
10/05/2012 M0.4 INCH DENVER CO CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

WFO BOU

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KCYS [051549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 051549
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
948 AM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 10 ENE DALTON 41.46N 102.79W
10/05/2012 M0.1 INCH MORRILL NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.03 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 12 NW LOST SPRINGS 42.89N 105.09W
10/05/2012 M0.5 INCH CONVERSE WY COCORAHS

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.06 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 21 WSW WARREN AF BASE 41.04N 105.23W
10/05/2012 M0.8 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.05 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 5 SE BUFORD 41.06N 105.23W
10/05/2012 M0.8 INCH LARAMIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.05 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 10 SSE BROADWATER 41.46N 102.78W
10/05/2012 M0.1 INCH MORRILL NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.03 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 10 NE HEMINGFORD 42.42N 102.94W
10/05/2012 M2.5 INCH BOX BUTTE NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.14 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW HEMINGFORD 42.32N 103.08W
10/05/2012 M4.0 INCH BOX BUTTE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.17 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT

0800 AM SNOW 1 WNW ALLIANCE 42.11N 102.89W
10/05/2012 M0.6 INCH BOX BUTTE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0930 AM SNOW LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
10/05/2012 E3.5 INCH NIOBRARA WY 911 CALL CENTER

NIOBRARA COUNTY DISPATCH ESTIMATES 3 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW. BEGINNING TO MELT WITH ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT.


&&

$$

HAMMER

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KILX [051536]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 051536
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1036 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW LINCOLN 40.12N 89.41W
10/05/2012 M1.54 INCH LOGAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN HEYWORTH 40.31N 88.98W
10/05/2012 M1.24 INCH MCLEAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE BLOOMINGTON 40.50N 88.93W
10/05/2012 M1.15 INCH MCLEAN IL NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL.


&&

$$

GEELHART

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KCYS [051433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 051433
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
833 AM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 29 N TORRINGTON 42.49N 104.18W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH GOSHEN WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0.05 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 13 SSW MANVILLE 42.61N 104.71W
10/05/2012 M0.5 INCH PLATTE WY COCORAHS

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0800 AM SNOW 10 ESE CRAWFORD 42.63N 103.23W
10/05/2012 E5.5 INCH DAWES NE TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 5 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

0800 AM SNOW 9 NE HARRISON 42.78N 103.76W
10/05/2012 M6.0 INCH SIOUX NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

HAMMER

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KBOU [051429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 051429
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
829 AM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 AM SNOW GENESEE 39.69N 105.27W
10/05/2012 M1.2 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0757 AM SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
10/05/2012 M1.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 AM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.98N 105.44W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 AM SNOW 2 SW BOULDER 40.01N 105.28W
10/05/2012 M0.3 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

DAVID SKAGGS RESEARCH CENTER NOAA

0700 AM SNOW 9 WSW RUSTIC 40.65N 105.73W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH LARIMER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 2 NNW CRESCENT VILLAGE 39.96N 105.34W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

GROSS RESERVOIR

0700 AM SNOW 4 SE DENVER 39.69N 104.91W
10/05/2012 M0.7 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
10/05/2012 M1.2 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
10/05/2012 M0.4 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 6 NE DENVER 39.79N 104.88W
10/05/2012 M1.5 INCH DENVER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0638 AM SNOW 2 S EVERGREEN 39.60N 105.34W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW CENTENNIAL 39.60N 104.87W
10/05/2012 M0.5 INCH ARAPAHOE CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0611 AM SNOW NIWOT 40.10N 105.16W
10/05/2012 M0.6 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM SNOW DENVER INTL AIRPORT 39.87N 104.67W
10/05/2012 M0.4 INCH DENVER CO CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

WFO BOU

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KILX [051341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 051341
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
840 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN NEW HOLLAND 40.18N 89.58W
10/05/2012 M1.37 INCH LOGAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0630 AM HEAVY RAIN JACKSONVILLE 39.73N 90.23W
10/05/2012 M1.25 INCH MORGAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NE LINCOLN 40.21N 89.29W
10/05/2012 M1.25 INCH LOGAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW LE ROY 40.32N 88.83W
10/05/2012 M1.25 INCH MCLEAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W LINCOLN 40.15N 89.40W
10/05/2012 M1.24 INCH LOGAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE LE ROY 40.29N 88.74W
10/05/2012 M1.23 INCH MCLEAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW LE ROY 40.29N 88.79W
10/05/2012 M1.22 INCH MCLEAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N PETERSBURG 40.03N 89.85W
10/05/2012 M1.20 INCH MENARD IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW DANVERS 40.54N 89.21W
10/05/2012 M1.19 INCH MCLEAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 W ATLANTA 40.26N 89.36W
10/05/2012 M1.18 INCH LOGAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE LINCOLN 40.19N 89.35W
10/05/2012 M1.15 INCH LOGAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE NORMAL 40.53N 88.96W
10/05/2012 M1.15 INCH MCLEAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 W PETERSBURG 40.01N 90.00W
10/05/2012 M1.11 INCH CASS IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW BEASON 40.11N 89.25W
10/05/2012 M1.10 INCH LOGAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE BLOOMINGTON 40.51N 88.93W
10/05/2012 M1.08 INCH MCLEAN IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN BLOOMINGTON AIRPORT 40.48N 88.92W
10/05/2012 M1.02 INCH MCLEAN IL AWOS

24-HOUR TOTAL

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N ATHENS 39.99N 89.72W
10/05/2012 M1.06 INCH MENARD IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR TOTAL

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 W BLOOMINGTON 40.48N 89.07W
10/05/2012 M1.19 INCH MCLEAN IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN BLOOMINGTON 40.48N 88.97W
10/05/2012 M1.13 INCH MCLEAN IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR TOTAL AT WATER PLANT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW PETERSBURG 39.99N 89.88W
10/05/2012 M1.04 INCH MENARD IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN VIRGINIA 39.95N 90.21W
10/05/2012 M1.06 INCH CASS IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR TOTAL


&&

$$

GEELHART

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KBOU [051331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 051331
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
730 AM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0726 AM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.98N 105.44W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 AM SNOW 2 SW BOULDER 40.01N 105.28W
10/05/2012 M0.3 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

DAVID SKAGGS RESEARCH CENTER NOAA

0700 AM SNOW 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
10/05/2012 M0.4 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 6 NE DENVER 39.79N 104.88W
10/05/2012 M1.5 INCH DENVER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0638 AM SNOW 2 S EVERGREEN 39.60N 105.34W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW CENTENNIAL 39.60N 104.87W
10/05/2012 M0.5 INCH ARAPAHOE CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0611 AM SNOW NIWOT 40.10N 105.16W
10/05/2012 M0.6 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM SNOW DENVER INTL AIRPORT 39.87N 104.67W
10/05/2012 M0.4 INCH DENVER CO CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

WFO BOU

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KBOU [051239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 051239
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
639 AM MDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0638 AM SNOW 2 S EVERGREEN 39.60N 105.34W
10/05/2012 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0611 AM SNOW NIWOT 40.10N 105.16W
10/05/2012 M0.6 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM SNOW DENVER INTL AIRPORT 39.87N 104.67W
10/05/2012 M0.4 INCH DENVER CO CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

WFO BOU

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KILX [051232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 051232
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
732 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN HAVANA 40.30N 90.06W
10/05/2012 M1.20 INCH MASON IL CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL SO FAR...SINCE LAST EVENING.


&&

$$

SMITH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051227
SWODY1
SPC AC 051225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST...LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
CNTRL AND NRN U.S...ON SRN SIDE OF W-E ELONGATED LOW/TROUGH SETTLING
S ACROSS THE NRN PLNS/UPR GRT LKS. A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
PERSIST IN THE WEST...N OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE OVER NRN MEXICO. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT WILL MOVE
GENERALLY E FROM THE SRN RCKYS ACROSS THE SRN PLNS INTO THE LWR
MS/LWR OH VLYS.

AT THE SFC...SPRAWLING...SHALLOW ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
SWD AND EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...OZARKS...AND THE OH...LWR TN...AND
LWR MS VLYS. THE COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPR LVL IMPULSES AND DAYTIME
HEATING...MAY FOSTER SCTD STORMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS
THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY.
AND...A FEW AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE ASSOCIATED 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE.

...ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO OZARKS/LWR MS VLY TODAY THROUGH SAT...
PERIODIC EPISODES OF POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION/STORMS LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY ESE THIS PERIOD. THE STRONGEST SUCH
ACTIVITY...BOLSTERED BY RESIDUAL EML PLUME AND PW AOA 1.5
INCHES...MAY OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVE FROM FAR ERN
OK INTO NRN AR AND SE MO AS SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW IN WRN OK
ENHANCES ASCENT ACROSS REGION. WHILE AN OCCASIONAL STORM OR TWO
COULD PRODUCE HAIL...CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR/ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...WITH ONLY A LOW PROBABILISTIC RISK FOR SVR
HAIL/ISOLD DMGG WIND.

FARTHER S AND E...A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG/NEAR SFC
FRONT THIS AFTN AS HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION OF MINIMAL
PRE-FRONTAL CINH. STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY ARE UNDERCUT BY SE-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/05/2012

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KILX [051200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 051200
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
700 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 AM HEAVY RAIN JACKSONVILLE 39.73N 90.23W
10/05/2012 M1.04 INCH MORGAN IL CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL SINCE LAST EVENING.


&&

$$

SMITH

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KILX [051159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 051159
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 AM HEAVY RAIN LINCOLN 40.15N 89.37W
10/05/2012 M1.23 INCH LOGAN IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE LAST EVENING.


&&

$$

SMITH

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KILX [051055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 051055
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
554 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0551 AM HEAVY RAIN ELKHART 40.02N 89.48W
10/05/2012 M1.02 INCH LOGAN IL MESONET

TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR. SWOP REPORT.


&&

$$

SMITH

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050843
SWOD48
SPC AC 050842

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF BLOCKING AND DEGREE OF
AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF
CLOSED LOWS COMPRISING A PORTION OF THE STILL EVOLVING EASTERN
PACIFIC BLOCK COULD EVENTUALLY MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH PROBABLY WILL PRECLUDE ANY RISK FOR A
SUBSTANTIVE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

..KERR.. 10/05/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050709
SWODY3
SPC AC 050707

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BLOCKING REMAINING PROMINENT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A COUPLE OF CONFLUENT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM MERGING INTO BROAD TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE
NORTHERN OF THE TWO STREAMS APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. STRONGER ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WELL NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF STATES.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NEAR CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. OTHER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITHIN/
BENEATH A RESIDUAL PLUME OF MOISTURE EMERGING FROM THE LOWER
LATITUDES. WITH PRE-FRONTAL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOW...OR AT LEAST UNCLEAR...THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 10/05/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050459
SWODY2
SPC AC 050457

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEAR/WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TO THE EAST OF THIS REGIME...CONFLUENT BELTS OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MERGE INTO BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WITHIN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW...MODELS INDICATE THAT ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES/LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD/GULF STATES AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WHILE THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID ATLC COAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER IMPULSES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL TO THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE-BASED
STABLE LAYER...COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF
THE OZARK PLATEAU AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER
NORTHEAST...WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS/SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

OTHER...WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND
GENERALLY WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

...FLORIDA AND ADJACENT S ATLC COAST...
IMPULSES WITHIN A RESIDUAL MOIST PLUME ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENING SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY.

..KERR.. 10/05/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050437
SWODY1
SPC AC 050435

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL/ERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AN EXTENSIVE SFC FRONT -- LYING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD -- WILL PROGRESS
EWD/SWD AND STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SW TX BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...FAR NERN TX...SERN OK...CNTRL/NRN/WRN AR...S-CNTRL/SERN MO...
POST-SFC-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING A RESIDUAL
EML SHOULD BOOST ELEVATED INSTABILITY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONALLY SUSTAINED...ELEVATED
STORMS WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AMIDST
GENERALLY 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INVOF THE SFC FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED PRE-FRONTAL CINH.
STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
BEFORE IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING FRONT.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 10/05/2012

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