DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050709
SWODY3
SPC AC 050707

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BLOCKING REMAINING PROMINENT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A COUPLE OF CONFLUENT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM MERGING INTO BROAD TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE
NORTHERN OF THE TWO STREAMS APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. STRONGER ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WELL NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF STATES.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NEAR CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. OTHER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITHIN/
BENEATH A RESIDUAL PLUME OF MOISTURE EMERGING FROM THE LOWER
LATITUDES. WITH PRE-FRONTAL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOW...OR AT LEAST UNCLEAR...THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 10/05/2012

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