NWUS54 KOHX 020117
LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
816 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0520 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S WATERTOWN 36.03N 86.14W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWNED ON MAIN
STREET IN STATESVILLE AND STONER...AT 711 GREENVALE ROAD
A SHED WAS BLOWN DOWN...AND ON KNIGHT CREEK BETWEEN
STATESVILLE AND WATERTOWN REPORTS OF A HOME MOVED OFF
ITS FOUNDATION AND OUTBUILDING DESTROYED
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200073
$$
31
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Monday, October 1, 2012
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 020058
SWODY1
SPC AC 020056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/NRN GA AND
FAR NERN AL NWD TO PARTS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN AND SERN KY...
...CENTRAL/NRN GA NWD TO FAR NERN AL/ERN TN/SERN KY/FAR WRN NC...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SWD INTO TX AND SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NWRN GULF NWD THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS
VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER WINDS FROM THE NERN GULF COAST TO
ERN TN/KY SHOULD BACK AND THUS BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL OVERNIGHT. THE
S/SERN EXTENSION OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE
LOWER TN/OH VALLEYS AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND MAINTAIN SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS/LINES OF SHEARED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 50+ KT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING
250 M2 PER S2/ PER 00Z FFC SOUNDING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THESE KINEMATICS ALSO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED ENEWD INTO PARTS OF ERN TN/SERN KY
AND ERN GA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ HAS
REACHED LOCATIONS FARTHER NNEWD ALONG AND W OF THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS /I.E. THE UPPER TN VALLEY/. DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY
THAT WOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN AND MODESTLY BOOST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
TO SUSTAIN TSTMS MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE SSW. ALTHOUGH THE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS THE 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ SHIFTS TO
THE NNE SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING A RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
IN ERN GA...TSTMS HAD INCREASED SOME IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING WITHIN AN APPARENT ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHERE SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE IMPINGING UPON THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE
WEDGE FRONT. GIVEN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
100-200 M2/S2...THESE STORMS POSE A NON-ZERO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
PRIOR TO THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD INTO A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR
MASS LOCATED N OF THE FRONT.
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...REFER TO WW/S 658/659 AND RESPECTIVE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.
...PARTS OF NRN SC AND SERN NC...
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION
AND THE LACK OF GREATER FORCING ALOFT SUGGEST THE CURRENT DECREASING
TRENDS IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT/LIGHTNING PRODUCTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. CONCURRENT DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST AS WELL
RESULTING IN NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES NEEDED BEYOND 01Z FOR THIS
REGION.
..PETERS.. 10/02/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 020056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/NRN GA AND
FAR NERN AL NWD TO PARTS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN AND SERN KY...
...CENTRAL/NRN GA NWD TO FAR NERN AL/ERN TN/SERN KY/FAR WRN NC...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SWD INTO TX AND SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NWRN GULF NWD THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS
VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER WINDS FROM THE NERN GULF COAST TO
ERN TN/KY SHOULD BACK AND THUS BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL OVERNIGHT. THE
S/SERN EXTENSION OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE
LOWER TN/OH VALLEYS AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND MAINTAIN SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS/LINES OF SHEARED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 50+ KT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING
250 M2 PER S2/ PER 00Z FFC SOUNDING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THESE KINEMATICS ALSO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED ENEWD INTO PARTS OF ERN TN/SERN KY
AND ERN GA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ HAS
REACHED LOCATIONS FARTHER NNEWD ALONG AND W OF THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS /I.E. THE UPPER TN VALLEY/. DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY
THAT WOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN AND MODESTLY BOOST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
TO SUSTAIN TSTMS MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE SSW. ALTHOUGH THE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS THE 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ SHIFTS TO
THE NNE SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING A RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
IN ERN GA...TSTMS HAD INCREASED SOME IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING WITHIN AN APPARENT ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHERE SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE IMPINGING UPON THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE
WEDGE FRONT. GIVEN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
100-200 M2/S2...THESE STORMS POSE A NON-ZERO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
PRIOR TO THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD INTO A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR
MASS LOCATED N OF THE FRONT.
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...REFER TO WW/S 658/659 AND RESPECTIVE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.
...PARTS OF NRN SC AND SERN NC...
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION
AND THE LACK OF GREATER FORCING ALOFT SUGGEST THE CURRENT DECREASING
TRENDS IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT/LIGHTNING PRODUCTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. CONCURRENT DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST AS WELL
RESULTING IN NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES NEEDED BEYOND 01Z FOR THIS
REGION.
..PETERS.. 10/02/2012
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KILM [020041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS52 KILM 020041
LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
841 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0625 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 WSW KELLY 34.44N 78.44W
10/01/2012 BLADEN NC PUBLIC
A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON ELWELL
FERRY ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH HIGHWAY 211.
DAMAGE MAY BE THE RESULT OF A BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWN...BUT NO CONFIRMATION OR SIGHTING.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200334
$$
WEISS
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LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
841 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0625 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 WSW KELLY 34.44N 78.44W
10/01/2012 BLADEN NC PUBLIC
A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON ELWELL
FERRY ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH HIGHWAY 211.
DAMAGE MAY BE THE RESULT OF A BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWN...BUT NO CONFIRMATION OR SIGHTING.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200334
$$
WEISS
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KTFX [020041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 020041
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
640 PM MDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0921 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
10/01/2012 M64 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
64 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT DEEP CREEK. WIND SUSTAINED
AT 41 MPH.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
640 PM MDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0921 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
10/01/2012 M64 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
64 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT DEEP CREEK. WIND SUSTAINED
AT 41 MPH.
&&
$$
NJL
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KILM [020035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KILM 020035
LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
835 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 N CERRO GORDO 34.36N 78.93W
10/01/2012 COLUMBUS NC 911 CALL CENTER
REPORTS OF POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR PORTER SWAMP RD AND
BUD STEPHENS RD.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200337
$$
LACORTE
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LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
835 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 N CERRO GORDO 34.36N 78.93W
10/01/2012 COLUMBUS NC 911 CALL CENTER
REPORTS OF POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR PORTER SWAMP RD AND
BUD STEPHENS RD.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200337
$$
LACORTE
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KILM [020031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KILM 020031
LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
831 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0526 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W LAKE WACCAMAW 34.33N 78.58W
10/01/2012 COLUMBUS NC PUBLIC
TREES DOWN ALONG A FENCE AT MAZE CRAZE. POSSIBLE
TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED BASED OFF RADAR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200336
$$
WEISS
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LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
831 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0526 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W LAKE WACCAMAW 34.33N 78.58W
10/01/2012 COLUMBUS NC PUBLIC
TREES DOWN ALONG A FENCE AT MAZE CRAZE. POSSIBLE
TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED BASED OFF RADAR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200336
$$
WEISS
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KILM [020029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KILM 020029
LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
829 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0526 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 W LAKE WACCAMAW 34.33N 78.58W
10/01/2012 COLUMBUS NC PUBLIC
VIDEO OF A FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE TORNADO...NEAR MAZE
CRAZE IN HALLSBORO. TIME ESTIMATED BASED OFF RADAR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200335
$$
WEISS
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LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
829 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0526 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 W LAKE WACCAMAW 34.33N 78.58W
10/01/2012 COLUMBUS NC PUBLIC
VIDEO OF A FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE TORNADO...NEAR MAZE
CRAZE IN HALLSBORO. TIME ESTIMATED BASED OFF RADAR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200335
$$
WEISS
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KCRP [020024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KCRP 020024
LSRCRP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
723 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0506 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 N CORPUS CHRISTI 27.83N 97.49W
10/01/2012 M40.00 MPH GMZ230 TX MESONET
TCOON SITE AT NUECES BAY MEASURED A GUST TO 35 KNOTS.
0512 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 NNE ROCKPORT 28.11N 97.02W
10/01/2012 M46.00 MPH GMZ235 TX MESONET
TCOON SITE AT COPANO BAY MEASURED A GUST TO 40 KNOTS.
0517 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 N ROCKPORT 28.08N 97.05W
10/01/2012 M46.00 MPH ARANSAS TX ASOS
ARANSAS COUNTY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ASOS MEASURED A GUST OF
40 KNOTS.
0530 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 SSW PORTLAND 27.80N 97.35W
10/01/2012 M41.00 MPH GMZ230 TX MESONET
TCOON SITE AT CORPUS CHRISTI BAY PLATFORM MEASURED A GUST
TO 36 KNOTS.
0536 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 ENE PORT ARANSAS 27.83N 97.07W
10/01/2012 M39.00 MPH NUECES TX MESONET
TCOON SITE AT PORT ARANSAS MEASURED A GUST TO 34 KNOTS.
0542 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SSE ROCKPORT 28.02N 97.04W
10/01/2012 M41.00 MPH ARANSAS TX MESONET
TCOON SITE AT ROCKPORT MEASURED A GUST TO 36 KNOTS.
&&
$$
TTINSLEY
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LSRCRP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
723 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0506 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 N CORPUS CHRISTI 27.83N 97.49W
10/01/2012 M40.00 MPH GMZ230 TX MESONET
TCOON SITE AT NUECES BAY MEASURED A GUST TO 35 KNOTS.
0512 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 NNE ROCKPORT 28.11N 97.02W
10/01/2012 M46.00 MPH GMZ235 TX MESONET
TCOON SITE AT COPANO BAY MEASURED A GUST TO 40 KNOTS.
0517 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 N ROCKPORT 28.08N 97.05W
10/01/2012 M46.00 MPH ARANSAS TX ASOS
ARANSAS COUNTY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ASOS MEASURED A GUST OF
40 KNOTS.
0530 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 SSW PORTLAND 27.80N 97.35W
10/01/2012 M41.00 MPH GMZ230 TX MESONET
TCOON SITE AT CORPUS CHRISTI BAY PLATFORM MEASURED A GUST
TO 36 KNOTS.
0536 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 ENE PORT ARANSAS 27.83N 97.07W
10/01/2012 M39.00 MPH NUECES TX MESONET
TCOON SITE AT PORT ARANSAS MEASURED A GUST TO 34 KNOTS.
0542 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SSE ROCKPORT 28.02N 97.04W
10/01/2012 M41.00 MPH ARANSAS TX MESONET
TCOON SITE AT ROCKPORT MEASURED A GUST TO 36 KNOTS.
&&
$$
TTINSLEY
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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 659
WWUS20 KWNS 020007
SEL9
SPC WW 020007
KYZ000-TNZ000-020600-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
MIDDLE AND EAST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 805 PM UNTIL
200 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHATTANOOGA
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 658...
DISCUSSION...NNE-SSW SQLN IN ERN PART OF MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ADVANCING SLOWLY EWD...WHILE EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE MORE
RAPIDLY NNE ALONG IT. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT LOW-LVL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
OCCASIONAL LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE TORNADOES GIVEN CONTINUED
NNE MOTION OF 50 KT SSWLY LLJ ACROSS E TN...AND MOISTENING NEAR-SFC
ENVIRONMENT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.
...CORFIDI
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SEL9
SPC WW 020007
KYZ000-TNZ000-020600-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
MIDDLE AND EAST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 805 PM UNTIL
200 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHATTANOOGA
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 658...
DISCUSSION...NNE-SSW SQLN IN ERN PART OF MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ADVANCING SLOWLY EWD...WHILE EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE MORE
RAPIDLY NNE ALONG IT. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT LOW-LVL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
OCCASIONAL LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE TORNADOES GIVEN CONTINUED
NNE MOTION OF 50 KT SSWLY LLJ ACROSS E TN...AND MOISTENING NEAR-SFC
ENVIRONMENT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.
...CORFIDI
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KOHX [012344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS54 KOHX 012344
LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0533 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 SSW CARTHAGE 36.12N 86.01W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 57 S.P. MCCLANAHAN ROAD
NEAR THE GRANT COMMUNITY WITH TREES DOWNED ACROSS THE
ROADWAY AND DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME
0555 PM FLASH FLOOD LEBANON 36.21N 86.32W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL STREETS ACROSS THE CITY OF LEBANNON CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING
0612 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE LEBANON 36.17N 86.27W
10/01/2012 M4.00 INCH WILSON TN COCORAHS
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200072 OHX1200070 OHX1200071
$$
31
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LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0533 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 SSW CARTHAGE 36.12N 86.01W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 57 S.P. MCCLANAHAN ROAD
NEAR THE GRANT COMMUNITY WITH TREES DOWNED ACROSS THE
ROADWAY AND DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME
0555 PM FLASH FLOOD LEBANON 36.21N 86.32W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL STREETS ACROSS THE CITY OF LEBANNON CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING
0612 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE LEBANON 36.17N 86.27W
10/01/2012 M4.00 INCH WILSON TN COCORAHS
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200072 OHX1200070 OHX1200071
$$
31
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KOHX [012340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KOHX 012340
LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
640 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0533 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 SSW CARTHAGE 36.12N 86.01W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 57 S.P. MCCLANAHAN ROAD
NEAR THE GRANT COMMUNITY WITH TREES DOWNED ACROSS THE
ROADWAY AND DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME
&&
CORRECTED REMARKS
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200072
$$
31
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LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
640 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0533 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 SSW CARTHAGE 36.12N 86.01W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 57 S.P. MCCLANAHAN ROAD
NEAR THE GRANT COMMUNITY WITH TREES DOWNED ACROSS THE
ROADWAY AND DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME
&&
CORRECTED REMARKS
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200072
$$
31
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KEWX [012329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KEWX 012329
LSREWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM HAIL 3 SW SHAVANO PARK 29.56N 98.60W
10/01/2012 E0.25 INCH BEXAR TX COCORAHS
&&
EVENT NUMBER EWX1200491
$$
SBS
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LSREWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM HAIL 3 SW SHAVANO PARK 29.56N 98.60W
10/01/2012 E0.25 INCH BEXAR TX COCORAHS
&&
EVENT NUMBER EWX1200491
$$
SBS
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KOHX [012321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS54 KOHX 012321
LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0533 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 SSW CARTHAGE 36.12N 86.01W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 57 SP MCCLANAHAN ROAD
NEAR THE GRANT COMMUNITY WITH TREES DOWNED ACROSS THE
ROADWAY
0555 PM FLASH FLOOD LEBANON 36.21N 86.32W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL STREETS ACROSS THE CITY OF LEBANNON CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING
0612 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE LEBANON 36.17N 86.27W
10/01/2012 M4.00 INCH WILSON TN COCORAHS
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200072 OHX1200070 OHX1200071
$$
31
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LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0533 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 SSW CARTHAGE 36.12N 86.01W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 57 SP MCCLANAHAN ROAD
NEAR THE GRANT COMMUNITY WITH TREES DOWNED ACROSS THE
ROADWAY
0555 PM FLASH FLOOD LEBANON 36.21N 86.32W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL STREETS ACROSS THE CITY OF LEBANNON CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING
0612 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE LEBANON 36.17N 86.27W
10/01/2012 M4.00 INCH WILSON TN COCORAHS
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200072 OHX1200070 OHX1200071
$$
31
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KOHX [012319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOHX 012319
LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0533 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 SSW CARTHAGE 36.12N 86.01W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 57 SP MCCLANAHAN ROAD
NEAR THE GRANT COMMUNITY WITH TREES DOWNED ACROSS THE
ROADWAY
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200072
$$
31
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LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0533 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 SSW CARTHAGE 36.12N 86.01W
10/01/2012 SMITH TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 57 SP MCCLANAHAN ROAD
NEAR THE GRANT COMMUNITY WITH TREES DOWNED ACROSS THE
ROADWAY
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200072
$$
31
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KOHX [012313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOHX 012313
LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0612 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE LEBANON 36.17N 86.27W
10/01/2012 M4.00 INCH WILSON TN COCORAHS
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200071
$$
JLM
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LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0612 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE LEBANON 36.17N 86.27W
10/01/2012 M4.00 INCH WILSON TN COCORAHS
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200071
$$
JLM
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KOHX [012306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOHX 012306
LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
605 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0555 PM FLASH FLOOD LEBANON 36.21N 86.32W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL STREETS ACROSS THE CITY OF LEBANNON CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200070
$$
31
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LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
605 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0555 PM FLASH FLOOD LEBANON 36.21N 86.32W
10/01/2012 WILSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL STREETS ACROSS THE CITY OF LEBANNON CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1200070
$$
31
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KILM [012256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected Time
NWUS52 KILM 012256 CCA
LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0625 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WSW KELLY 34.44N 78.44W
10/01/2012 E58 MPH BLADEN NC PUBLIC
A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON ELWELL
FERRY ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH HIGHWAY 211.
DAMAGE MAY BE THE RESULT OF A BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWN...BUT NO CONFIRMATION OR SIGHTING.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200334
$$
RJD
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LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0625 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WSW KELLY 34.44N 78.44W
10/01/2012 E58 MPH BLADEN NC PUBLIC
A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON ELWELL
FERRY ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH HIGHWAY 211.
DAMAGE MAY BE THE RESULT OF A BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWN...BUT NO CONFIRMATION OR SIGHTING.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200334
$$
RJD
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KCRP [012256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS54 KCRP 012256
LSRCRP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
555 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1206 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NNW LAREDO 27.57N 99.50W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER OVER MINES ROAD NEAR INTERSTATE 35.
1249 AM FLASH FLOOD N LAREDO 27.53N 99.49W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX EMERGENCY MNGR
STRANDED MOTORISTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON NORTH SIDE OF
LAREDO.
0136 AM FLASH FLOOD LAREDO 27.53N 99.49W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX EMERGENCY MNGR
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STRANDED MOTORISTS THROUGHOUT THE
CITY OF LAREDO. MANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS UNDER WATER.
0148 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW LAREDO 27.57N 99.49W
09/29/2012 M4.20 INCH WEBB TX AMATEUR RADIO
REPORTED 1/4 MILE EAST OF KGNS TV STUDIOS.
0157 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N LAREDO 27.55N 99.49W
09/29/2012 M5.62 INCH WEBB TX COCORAHS
MEASURED AT SALDANA AND JACAMAN RD. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ALSO REPORTED IN THE AREA.
0250 AM TSTM WND DMG THREE RIVERS 28.47N 98.18W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON OAKVILLE ROAD IN THREE RIVERS.
0255 AM TSTM WND DMG 9 NNE THREE RIVERS 28.58N 98.11W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF FM 2049 AND CR 243.
0436 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SE CC NAS 27.60N 97.21W
09/29/2012 M49.00 MPH GMZ250 TX MESONET
BOB HALL PIER MEASURED GUST TO 43 KNOTS AND SUSTAINED AT
35 KTS.
0453 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 ESE CORPUS CHRISTI 27.69N 97.25W
09/29/2012 M47.00 MPH GMZ230 TX ASOS
CC NAS MEASURED 41 KT WIND GUST /47 MPH/ WITH PASSING
THUNDERSTORM.
0500 PM WATER SPOUT E PORT ARANSAS 27.89N 97.01W
09/29/2012 GMZ230 TX TRAINED SPOTTER
BRIEF WATERSPOUT EAST OF PORT ARANSAS.
0511 PM TORNADO 1 W PORT LAVACA 28.62N 96.64W
09/29/2012 F0 CALHOUN TX NWS STORM SURVEY
AN NWS STORM SURVEY CONCLUDED AN EF-0 TORNADO BRIEFLY
TOUCHED DOWN JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 35 AT FM 3084. A
TRACTOR SUPPLY STORE EXPERIENCED MINOR DAMAGE WHICH
INCLUDED LOSING GUTTERS OFF THE BUILDING AND A ROOFTOP
AIR CONDITIONING UNIT BEING FLIPPED. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 65 MPH.
0616 PM HEAVY RAIN INGLESIDE 27.87N 97.20W
09/29/2012 E2.00 INCH SAN PATRICIO TX TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL OF 2-2.25 INCHES IN SHORT TIME. STANDING WATER
IN YARDS AND FIELDS.
&&
$$
JR
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LSRCRP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
555 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1206 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NNW LAREDO 27.57N 99.50W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER OVER MINES ROAD NEAR INTERSTATE 35.
1249 AM FLASH FLOOD N LAREDO 27.53N 99.49W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX EMERGENCY MNGR
STRANDED MOTORISTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON NORTH SIDE OF
LAREDO.
0136 AM FLASH FLOOD LAREDO 27.53N 99.49W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX EMERGENCY MNGR
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STRANDED MOTORISTS THROUGHOUT THE
CITY OF LAREDO. MANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS UNDER WATER.
0148 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW LAREDO 27.57N 99.49W
09/29/2012 M4.20 INCH WEBB TX AMATEUR RADIO
REPORTED 1/4 MILE EAST OF KGNS TV STUDIOS.
0157 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N LAREDO 27.55N 99.49W
09/29/2012 M5.62 INCH WEBB TX COCORAHS
MEASURED AT SALDANA AND JACAMAN RD. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ALSO REPORTED IN THE AREA.
0250 AM TSTM WND DMG THREE RIVERS 28.47N 98.18W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON OAKVILLE ROAD IN THREE RIVERS.
0255 AM TSTM WND DMG 9 NNE THREE RIVERS 28.58N 98.11W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF FM 2049 AND CR 243.
0436 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SE CC NAS 27.60N 97.21W
09/29/2012 M49.00 MPH GMZ250 TX MESONET
BOB HALL PIER MEASURED GUST TO 43 KNOTS AND SUSTAINED AT
35 KTS.
0453 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 ESE CORPUS CHRISTI 27.69N 97.25W
09/29/2012 M47.00 MPH GMZ230 TX ASOS
CC NAS MEASURED 41 KT WIND GUST /47 MPH/ WITH PASSING
THUNDERSTORM.
0500 PM WATER SPOUT E PORT ARANSAS 27.89N 97.01W
09/29/2012 GMZ230 TX TRAINED SPOTTER
BRIEF WATERSPOUT EAST OF PORT ARANSAS.
0511 PM TORNADO 1 W PORT LAVACA 28.62N 96.64W
09/29/2012 F0 CALHOUN TX NWS STORM SURVEY
AN NWS STORM SURVEY CONCLUDED AN EF-0 TORNADO BRIEFLY
TOUCHED DOWN JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 35 AT FM 3084. A
TRACTOR SUPPLY STORE EXPERIENCED MINOR DAMAGE WHICH
INCLUDED LOSING GUTTERS OFF THE BUILDING AND A ROOFTOP
AIR CONDITIONING UNIT BEING FLIPPED. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 65 MPH.
0616 PM HEAVY RAIN INGLESIDE 27.87N 97.20W
09/29/2012 E2.00 INCH SAN PATRICIO TX TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL OF 2-2.25 INCHES IN SHORT TIME. STANDING WATER
IN YARDS AND FIELDS.
&&
$$
JR
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KILM [012255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KILM 012255
LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0628 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WSW KELLY 34.44N 78.44W
10/01/2012 E58 MPH BLADEN NC PUBLIC
A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON ELWELL
FERRY ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH HIGHWAY 211.
DAMAGE MAY BE THE RESULT OF A BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWN...BUT NO CONFIRMATION OR SIGHTING.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200334
$$
RJD
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LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0628 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WSW KELLY 34.44N 78.44W
10/01/2012 E58 MPH BLADEN NC PUBLIC
A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON ELWELL
FERRY ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH HIGHWAY 211.
DAMAGE MAY BE THE RESULT OF A BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWN...BUT NO CONFIRMATION OR SIGHTING.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200334
$$
RJD
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2017
ACUS11 KWNS 012241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012240
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-020015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE TN...NRN AL...AND NRN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 658...
VALID 012240Z - 020015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 658 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE. THE NEED
FOR A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTH...ACROSS
KENTUCKY...PROBABLY NOT TO THE EAST...ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW
MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFT ROTATION HAS BECOME
CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...SHEAR
BENEATH 40+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IS GENERALLY MAXIMIZED TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINGERING COLD WEDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHERE TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR DUE TO WEAK
TO STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES.
MEANWHILE...SUBSTANTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY REMAINS
CONFINED TO A CLUSTER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AIDED BY
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NOW SPREADING NORTHWARD
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF NASHVILLE.
THIS MAY BE BASED WITHIN A NARROWING TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
INSTABILITY...WITH AT LEAST SOME TORNADIC POTENTIAL CONTINUING
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS/SPREADS NORTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES DUE
TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.
..KERR.. 10/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 36418537 35788493 34828472 34518410 34208302 33768244
33318364 33378439 32628502 32588554 34358572 35728622
36378634 36418537
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012240
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-020015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE TN...NRN AL...AND NRN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 658...
VALID 012240Z - 020015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 658 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE. THE NEED
FOR A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTH...ACROSS
KENTUCKY...PROBABLY NOT TO THE EAST...ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW
MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFT ROTATION HAS BECOME
CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...SHEAR
BENEATH 40+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IS GENERALLY MAXIMIZED TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINGERING COLD WEDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHERE TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR DUE TO WEAK
TO STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES.
MEANWHILE...SUBSTANTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY REMAINS
CONFINED TO A CLUSTER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AIDED BY
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NOW SPREADING NORTHWARD
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF NASHVILLE.
THIS MAY BE BASED WITHIN A NARROWING TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
INSTABILITY...WITH AT LEAST SOME TORNADIC POTENTIAL CONTINUING
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS/SPREADS NORTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES DUE
TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.
..KERR.. 10/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 36418537 35788493 34828472 34518410 34208302 33768244
33318364 33378439 32628502 32588554 34358572 35728622
36378634 36418537
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KEWX [012228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KEWX 012228
LSREWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
528 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM HAIL 2 NE LEON VALLEY 29.52N 98.59W
10/01/2012 E0.70 INCH BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AT BABCOCK AND ECKERT ROAD. ALSO
GUSTY WINDS BLEW DOWN SOME SMALL BUSINESS SIGNS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER EWX1200490
$$
SBS
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LSREWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
528 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM HAIL 2 NE LEON VALLEY 29.52N 98.59W
10/01/2012 E0.70 INCH BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AT BABCOCK AND ECKERT ROAD. ALSO
GUSTY WINDS BLEW DOWN SOME SMALL BUSINESS SIGNS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER EWX1200490
$$
SBS
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KEWX [012223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KEWX 012223
LSREWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
522 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM HAIL SAN ANTONIO 29.46N 98.51W
10/01/2012 M0.25 INCH BEXAR TX NWS EMPLOYEE
VANCE JACKSON AND DE ZAVALA ROAD
&&
EVENT NUMBER EWX1200489
$$
SBS
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LSREWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
522 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM HAIL SAN ANTONIO 29.46N 98.51W
10/01/2012 M0.25 INCH BEXAR TX NWS EMPLOYEE
VANCE JACKSON AND DE ZAVALA ROAD
&&
EVENT NUMBER EWX1200489
$$
SBS
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KEWX [012217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KEWX 012217
LSREWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
517 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 PM HAIL SAN ANTONIO 29.46N 98.51W
10/01/2012 E0.70 INCH BEXAR TX PUBLIC
NEAR UTSA AT I10 AND 1604
&&
EVENT NUMBER EWX1200488
$$
SBS
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LSREWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
517 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 PM HAIL SAN ANTONIO 29.46N 98.51W
10/01/2012 E0.70 INCH BEXAR TX PUBLIC
NEAR UTSA AT I10 AND 1604
&&
EVENT NUMBER EWX1200488
$$
SBS
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KJAX [012205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 012205
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
605 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM LIGHTNING VILANO BEACH 29.94N 81.30W
10/01/2012 ST. JOHNS FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
*** 1 INJ *** THE ST JOHNS COUNY FIRE RESCUE REPORTED
THAT A PERSON WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AND HAS BEEN
TRANSPORTED TO THE HOSPITAL.
&&
$$
PP
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
605 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM LIGHTNING VILANO BEACH 29.94N 81.30W
10/01/2012 ST. JOHNS FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
*** 1 INJ *** THE ST JOHNS COUNY FIRE RESCUE REPORTED
THAT A PERSON WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AND HAS BEEN
TRANSPORTED TO THE HOSPITAL.
&&
$$
PP
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KLIX [012157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KLIX 012157
LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
457 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 PM TORNADO 9 NNW KILN 30.54N 89.48W
09/30/2012 F1 HANCOCK MS NWS STORM SURVEY
A WEAK TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG AN INTERMITTENT TRACK
FROM THE CYPRESS LAKE AREA NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE COMMUNITY OF NECAISE. A FEW HOMES HAD MINOR ROOF
DAMAGE...ONE HOME WAS SHIFTED OFF ITS FOUNDATION...ONE
HOME HAD PORTION OF SIDING ROOF PEELED OFF...AND A FEW
TREES WERE SNAPPED OR BLOWN DOWN. MOST OF DAMAGE PATH
PATH WAS RATED AS EF0 WITH ISOLATED EF1 DAMAGE. PATH
LENGTH 6 MILES. PATH WIDTH 40 YARDS. MAXIMUM WIND 100
MPH. TIME OF DAMAGE BASED ON RADAR.
&&
$$
22/TD
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LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
457 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 PM TORNADO 9 NNW KILN 30.54N 89.48W
09/30/2012 F1 HANCOCK MS NWS STORM SURVEY
A WEAK TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG AN INTERMITTENT TRACK
FROM THE CYPRESS LAKE AREA NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE COMMUNITY OF NECAISE. A FEW HOMES HAD MINOR ROOF
DAMAGE...ONE HOME WAS SHIFTED OFF ITS FOUNDATION...ONE
HOME HAD PORTION OF SIDING ROOF PEELED OFF...AND A FEW
TREES WERE SNAPPED OR BLOWN DOWN. MOST OF DAMAGE PATH
PATH WAS RATED AS EF0 WITH ISOLATED EF1 DAMAGE. PATH
LENGTH 6 MILES. PATH WIDTH 40 YARDS. MAXIMUM WIND 100
MPH. TIME OF DAMAGE BASED ON RADAR.
&&
$$
22/TD
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2016
ACUS11 KWNS 012000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012000
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-012200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND NERN AL/SRN TN/W CENTRAL AND NWRN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 658...
VALID 012000Z - 012200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 658 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAVE IN GENERAL BEEN
SLOW TO ORGANIZE THUS FAR...WITH ONLY BRIEF/TRANSIENT ROTATION
OBSERVED WITHIN A FEW CELLS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. THE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLOW EWD
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES PERSISTS -- PARTICULARLY FROM
SRN TN/NRN AL ESEWD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN GA.
..GOSS.. 10/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35138424 34288350 32468298 31998420 32838578 35198760
35688688 35498491 35138424
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012000
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-012200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND NERN AL/SRN TN/W CENTRAL AND NWRN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 658...
VALID 012000Z - 012200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 658 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAVE IN GENERAL BEEN
SLOW TO ORGANIZE THUS FAR...WITH ONLY BRIEF/TRANSIENT ROTATION
OBSERVED WITHIN A FEW CELLS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. THE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLOW EWD
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES PERSISTS -- PARTICULARLY FROM
SRN TN/NRN AL ESEWD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN GA.
..GOSS.. 10/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35138424 34288350 32468298 31998420 32838578 35198760
35688688 35498491 35138424
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 011957
SWODY1
SPC AC 011955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SOUTHEAST...
MINIMAL CHANGE TO ONGOING OUTLOOK...MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT. GREATEST RELATIVE RISK SHOULD EXIST DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. REF WW 658 AND
ATTENDANT MCDS FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION.
...CAROLINAS...
EXPANDED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO RISK INTO
THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT IN SC TO
EXTREME SRN NC. REF MCD 2015 FOR NEAR-TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ERODING THE COLD
AIR...RESULTING IN THE WEDGE FRONT ADVANCING FARTHER N THAN PER
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ALTHOUGH SOME RELATIVE STRENGTHENING OF
LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING...THE BULK OF STRONGER
FLOW WILL LARGELY REMAIN W/N OF THE FRONT AND WEAKEN LATE AS THE
SYNOPTIC CYCLONE FILLS. THUS...ANY APPRECIABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE IMMEDIATE WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY
ACROSS SC.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012/
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AR THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE. AN OVERALL SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND AWAY FROM
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.
...NC...
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
AIR MASS RECOVERY THAT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/STRONG STORMS
DESPITE VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 011955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SOUTHEAST...
MINIMAL CHANGE TO ONGOING OUTLOOK...MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT. GREATEST RELATIVE RISK SHOULD EXIST DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. REF WW 658 AND
ATTENDANT MCDS FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION.
...CAROLINAS...
EXPANDED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO RISK INTO
THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT IN SC TO
EXTREME SRN NC. REF MCD 2015 FOR NEAR-TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ERODING THE COLD
AIR...RESULTING IN THE WEDGE FRONT ADVANCING FARTHER N THAN PER
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ALTHOUGH SOME RELATIVE STRENGTHENING OF
LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING...THE BULK OF STRONGER
FLOW WILL LARGELY REMAIN W/N OF THE FRONT AND WEAKEN LATE AS THE
SYNOPTIC CYCLONE FILLS. THUS...ANY APPRECIABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE IMMEDIATE WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY
ACROSS SC.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012/
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AR THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE. AN OVERALL SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND AWAY FROM
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.
...NC...
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
AIR MASS RECOVERY THAT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/STRONG STORMS
DESPITE VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2015
ACUS11 KWNS 011921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011920
NCZ000-SCZ000-012045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC/FAR SERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011920Z - 012045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NERN SC/SERN NC NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
HOWEVER DUE TO GEOGRAPHICALLY LIMITED THREAT AREA.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NERN SC AND ADJACENT AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...ALONG A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE SURFACE REMAINS MODEST IN THIS
REGION...BACKED/ELY SURFACE WINDS N OF THE WARM FRONT ARE PROVIDING
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- SUPPORTIVE OF
UPDRAFT ROTATION. THOUGH THE MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT NWD POTENTIAL OF ANY TORNADO
THREAT...A NARROW ZONE OF HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL EXISTS IMMEDIATELY N
OF THE FRONT. IN THIS ZONE...RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A
PERSISTENT/ROTATING CELL OVER HORRY COUNTY SC...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A
TORNADO IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. ADDITIONAL BRIEF TORNADIC ACTIVITY
REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE NC
BORDER.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH ANOTHER CELL OR TWO MAY EVOLVE AND ACQUIRE
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THIS SAME SMALL ZONE OF FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND CONDITIONS...OVERALL THREAT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED IN BOTH DEGREE AND COVERAGE SUGGESTS THAT WW ISSUANCE WILL
LIKELY NOT BECOME NECESSARY.
..GOSS/HART.. 10/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 34417717 33527794 33367919 33138037 33578094 34158004
34517867 34417717
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011920
NCZ000-SCZ000-012045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC/FAR SERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011920Z - 012045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NERN SC/SERN NC NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
HOWEVER DUE TO GEOGRAPHICALLY LIMITED THREAT AREA.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NERN SC AND ADJACENT AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...ALONG A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE SURFACE REMAINS MODEST IN THIS
REGION...BACKED/ELY SURFACE WINDS N OF THE WARM FRONT ARE PROVIDING
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- SUPPORTIVE OF
UPDRAFT ROTATION. THOUGH THE MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT NWD POTENTIAL OF ANY TORNADO
THREAT...A NARROW ZONE OF HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL EXISTS IMMEDIATELY N
OF THE FRONT. IN THIS ZONE...RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A
PERSISTENT/ROTATING CELL OVER HORRY COUNTY SC...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A
TORNADO IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. ADDITIONAL BRIEF TORNADIC ACTIVITY
REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE NC
BORDER.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH ANOTHER CELL OR TWO MAY EVOLVE AND ACQUIRE
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THIS SAME SMALL ZONE OF FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND CONDITIONS...OVERALL THREAT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED IN BOTH DEGREE AND COVERAGE SUGGESTS THAT WW ISSUANCE WILL
LIKELY NOT BECOME NECESSARY.
..GOSS/HART.. 10/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 34417717 33527794 33367919 33138037 33578094 34158004
34517867 34417717
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KILM [011916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KILM 011916
LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0254 PM TORNADO 6 S BAYBORO 33.94N 79.01W
10/01/2012 HORRY SC 911 CALL CENTER
POLICE OFFICER NEAR INTERSECTION OF STALLION CT AND
HUCKS RD REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO MOVING TOWARDS HWY
22 AND HWY 701.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200333
$$
BJR
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LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0254 PM TORNADO 6 S BAYBORO 33.94N 79.01W
10/01/2012 HORRY SC 911 CALL CENTER
POLICE OFFICER NEAR INTERSECTION OF STALLION CT AND
HUCKS RD REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO MOVING TOWARDS HWY
22 AND HWY 701.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200333
$$
BJR
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KSHV [011827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KSHV 011827
LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
127 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 S CHIRENO 31.46N 94.35W
09/30/2012 NACOGDOCHES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
*** 1 FATAL *** A COUPLE DRIVING IN A CAR HYDROPLANED AND
LANDED IN A FLOODED CREEK ON FM95...3 MILES SOUTH OF
CHIRENO. WHILE ABANDONING THE FLOODED CAR...THE FEMALE
PASSENGER WAS SWEPT AWAY BY THE WATERS AND DROWNED.
&&
$$
PARKER
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LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
127 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 S CHIRENO 31.46N 94.35W
09/30/2012 NACOGDOCHES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
*** 1 FATAL *** A COUPLE DRIVING IN A CAR HYDROPLANED AND
LANDED IN A FLOODED CREEK ON FM95...3 MILES SOUTH OF
CHIRENO. WHILE ABANDONING THE FLOODED CAR...THE FEMALE
PASSENGER WAS SWEPT AWAY BY THE WATERS AND DROWNED.
&&
$$
PARKER
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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 658
WWUS20 KWNS 011822
SEL8
SPC WW 011822
ALZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-020100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 65 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS GEORGIA TO 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF CHATTANOOGA
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...MODEST HEATING OF A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. THE DEVELOPING STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO EXHIBIT WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT/...AN
UPWARD TREND IN TERMS OF STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EVIDENT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
...GOSS/HART
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SEL8
SPC WW 011822
ALZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-020100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 65 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS GEORGIA TO 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF CHATTANOOGA
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...MODEST HEATING OF A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. THE DEVELOPING STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO EXHIBIT WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT/...AN
UPWARD TREND IN TERMS OF STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EVIDENT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
...GOSS/HART
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2014
ACUS11 KWNS 011753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011752
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-011845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AL...WRN GA...ERN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011752Z - 011845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM W-CNTRL GA THROUGH EXTREME SE AL
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE HAS INCREASED IN STRENGTH OVER THE LAST HOUR.
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF A
FEW WEAK/BRIEF TORNADOES OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND WEST...THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE SOON. BOTH AREAS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TORNADO WATCH.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. KEOX /FORT RUCKER/ AND KTLH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
SEVERAL TRANSIENT/WEAK CIRCULATIONS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
FAR SE AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SW GA. BACKED SFC FLOW WITH
FAVORABLE VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES WITH 0-1KM SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2
PER REGIONAL 88-D VWP/S WOULD INDICATE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF LINE OF CURRENT CONVECTION. WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW WEAK/BRIEF TORNADOES OR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE THREAT MAY EXTEND TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
AL/NW GA CLOSER TO EWD PROGRESSING SFC LOW AND W-E ORIENTED WARM
FRONT. WHILE TEMPERATURES HERE REMAIN COOLER /LOW TO MID 70S/ DUE TO
EARLIER STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS HAVE LEAD TO
WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN MOIST AIRMASS. BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.
..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 10/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 31098551 32278542 32688565 32978626 33288702 33808705
34198683 34418609 34468519 34158413 33538342 32678332
31958322 31248326 31058329 30238351 29818403 29488470
29648529 30078569 31098551
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011752
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-011845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AL...WRN GA...ERN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011752Z - 011845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM W-CNTRL GA THROUGH EXTREME SE AL
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE HAS INCREASED IN STRENGTH OVER THE LAST HOUR.
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF A
FEW WEAK/BRIEF TORNADOES OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND WEST...THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE SOON. BOTH AREAS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TORNADO WATCH.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. KEOX /FORT RUCKER/ AND KTLH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
SEVERAL TRANSIENT/WEAK CIRCULATIONS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
FAR SE AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SW GA. BACKED SFC FLOW WITH
FAVORABLE VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES WITH 0-1KM SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2
PER REGIONAL 88-D VWP/S WOULD INDICATE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF LINE OF CURRENT CONVECTION. WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW WEAK/BRIEF TORNADOES OR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE THREAT MAY EXTEND TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
AL/NW GA CLOSER TO EWD PROGRESSING SFC LOW AND W-E ORIENTED WARM
FRONT. WHILE TEMPERATURES HERE REMAIN COOLER /LOW TO MID 70S/ DUE TO
EARLIER STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS HAVE LEAD TO
WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN MOIST AIRMASS. BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.
..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 10/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 31098551 32278542 32688565 32978626 33288702 33808705
34198683 34418609 34468519 34158413 33538342 32678332
31958322 31248326 31058329 30238351 29818403 29488470
29648529 30078569 31098551
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 011723
SWODY2
SPC AC 011721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CNTRL OH VALLEY ON TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST AS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE NRN
PLAINS DIVES SWD AND ROTATES THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION OF THE
TROUGH. THIS WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL S/SWLYS
DOWNSTREAM...CENTERED FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY TUE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NWD
FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST...OCCLUDING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...OH VALLEY...
IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF ROBUST HEATING SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT TO THE NE OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE
CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS STILL ON THE AGGRESSIVE SPECTRUM OF
GUIDANCE WITH THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION BY TUE AFTERNOON...IT IS
SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WITH THE DEPICTION OF MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL AND LIKELY YIELD ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE MODEST...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
LIMITING FACTORS TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE
MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH SHOULD TEMPER TORNADO POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...LIMITING LARGE
HAIL GROWTH. AS SUCH...LOW-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES REMAIN
WARRANTED WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
...LEE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO THE S ATLANTIC COAST..
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FOCUS IS NOT QUITE AS APPARENT AS FARTHER
NW...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUE AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONGER FLOW LARGELY LAGGING THE FRONT...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH ERN EXTENT. A RELATIVELY NARROW OVERLAP OF
MODERATE DEEP SHEAR AND BUOYANCY MAY OCCUR TO SUPPORT WEAK SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAY RESULT IN ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 011721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CNTRL OH VALLEY ON TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST AS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE NRN
PLAINS DIVES SWD AND ROTATES THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION OF THE
TROUGH. THIS WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL S/SWLYS
DOWNSTREAM...CENTERED FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY TUE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NWD
FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST...OCCLUDING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...OH VALLEY...
IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF ROBUST HEATING SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT TO THE NE OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE
CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS STILL ON THE AGGRESSIVE SPECTRUM OF
GUIDANCE WITH THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION BY TUE AFTERNOON...IT IS
SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WITH THE DEPICTION OF MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL AND LIKELY YIELD ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE MODEST...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
LIMITING FACTORS TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE
MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH SHOULD TEMPER TORNADO POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...LIMITING LARGE
HAIL GROWTH. AS SUCH...LOW-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES REMAIN
WARRANTED WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
...LEE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO THE S ATLANTIC COAST..
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FOCUS IS NOT QUITE AS APPARENT AS FARTHER
NW...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUE AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONGER FLOW LARGELY LAGGING THE FRONT...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH ERN EXTENT. A RELATIVELY NARROW OVERLAP OF
MODERATE DEEP SHEAR AND BUOYANCY MAY OCCUR TO SUPPORT WEAK SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAY RESULT IN ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2012
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KHGX [011700]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KHGX 011700
LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1200 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM FLOOD 4 WSW GRAPELAND 31.47N 95.54W
09/29/2012 HOUSTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
A ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO HIGH WATER ON FM 227 AND FM 2544.
PORTIONS OF FM 227 WERE WASHED AWAY 3 MILES WEST OF
GRAPELAND. TREES WERE REPORTED DOWNED. A METAL ROOF
AWNING ON A BANK IN GRAPELAND COLLAPSED DUE TO THE WEIGHT
OF THE RAIN.
&&
$$
BLOOD
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LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1200 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM FLOOD 4 WSW GRAPELAND 31.47N 95.54W
09/29/2012 HOUSTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
A ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO HIGH WATER ON FM 227 AND FM 2544.
PORTIONS OF FM 227 WERE WASHED AWAY 3 MILES WEST OF
GRAPELAND. TREES WERE REPORTED DOWNED. A METAL ROOF
AWNING ON A BANK IN GRAPELAND COLLAPSED DUE TO THE WEIGHT
OF THE RAIN.
&&
$$
BLOOD
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KTBW [011612]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTBW 011612
LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1212 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM WATER SPOUT 4 WSW ENGLEWOOD 26.94N 82.41W
10/01/2012 GMZ853 FL TRAINED SPOTTER
WATERSPOUT OFFSHORE OF MANASOTA BEACH. DISSIPATED BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.
&&
$$
OGLESBY
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LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1212 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM WATER SPOUT 4 WSW ENGLEWOOD 26.94N 82.41W
10/01/2012 GMZ853 FL TRAINED SPOTTER
WATERSPOUT OFFSHORE OF MANASOTA BEACH. DISSIPATED BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.
&&
$$
OGLESBY
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 011608
SWODY1
SPC AC 011606
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/TN AND
THE FL PANHANDLE...
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AR THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE. AN OVERALL SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND AWAY FROM
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.
...NC...
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
AIR MASS RECOVERY THAT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/STRONG STORMS
DESPITE VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 10/01/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 011606
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/TN AND
THE FL PANHANDLE...
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AR THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE. AN OVERALL SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND AWAY FROM
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.
...NC...
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
AIR MASS RECOVERY THAT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/STRONG STORMS
DESPITE VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 10/01/2012
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KLCH [011512]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 011512
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1012 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW ROCKEFELLER WILDL 29.59N 92.90W
09/30/2012 E45 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN EAST CAMERON BLOCK 14.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1012 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW ROCKEFELLER WILDL 29.59N 92.90W
09/30/2012 E45 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN EAST CAMERON BLOCK 14.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KLBF [011426]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 011426
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
925 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 PM HEAVY RAIN BRADY 41.02N 100.37W
09/30/2012 M1.30 INCH LINCOLN NE TRAINED SPOTTER
ALSO RECEIVED PEA SIZE HAIL WHICH ALMOST COVERED THE
GROUND WHITE.
&&
$$
KROBERG
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
925 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 PM HEAVY RAIN BRADY 41.02N 100.37W
09/30/2012 M1.30 INCH LINCOLN NE TRAINED SPOTTER
ALSO RECEIVED PEA SIZE HAIL WHICH ALMOST COVERED THE
GROUND WHITE.
&&
$$
KROBERG
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KBMX [011401]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KBMX 011401
LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
901 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW SPEED 32.75N 86.28W
10/01/2012 ELMORE AL EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR COUNTY ROAD 429 AND THE ELMORE
AND COOSA COUNTY LINE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
0640 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.
&&
$$
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LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
901 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW SPEED 32.75N 86.28W
10/01/2012 ELMORE AL EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR COUNTY ROAD 429 AND THE ELMORE
AND COOSA COUNTY LINE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
0640 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.
&&
$$
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KBMX [011400]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS54 KBMX 011400
LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
900 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW SPEED 32.75N 86.28W
10/01/2012 ELMORE AL EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR COUNTY ROAD 429 AND THE ELMORE
AND COOSA COUNTY LINE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
0640 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.
&&
$$
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LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
900 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW SPEED 32.75N 86.28W
10/01/2012 ELMORE AL EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR COUNTY ROAD 429 AND THE ELMORE
AND COOSA COUNTY LINE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
0640 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.
&&
$$
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KBMX [011359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS54 KBMX 011359
LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
859 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.
&&
$$
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LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
859 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.
&&
$$
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KBMX [011359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS54 KBMX 011359
LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
859 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW SPEED 32.75N 86.28W
10/01/2012 ELMORE AL EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR COUNTY ROAD 429 AND THE ELMORE
AND COOSA COUNTY LINE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
0657 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.
&&
$$
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LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
859 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW SPEED 32.75N 86.28W
10/01/2012 ELMORE AL EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR COUNTY ROAD 429 AND THE ELMORE
AND COOSA COUNTY LINE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
0657 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.
&&
$$
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KGLD [011316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS53 KGLD 011316
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
715 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0719 AM HAIL 2 W MCCOOK 40.20N 100.66W
09/30/2012 M0.75 INCH RED WILLOW NE TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL FROM 1/4-3/4 INCH
0700 PM HAIL CULBERTSON 40.23N 100.84W
09/30/2012 E1.75 INCH HITCHCOCK NE CO-OP OBSERVER
ESTIMATED TIME OF REPORT.
0730 PM HAIL CULBERTSON 40.23N 100.84W
09/30/2012 E0.75 INCH HITCHCOCK NE EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
LUNDQUIST
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
715 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0719 AM HAIL 2 W MCCOOK 40.20N 100.66W
09/30/2012 M0.75 INCH RED WILLOW NE TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL FROM 1/4-3/4 INCH
0700 PM HAIL CULBERTSON 40.23N 100.84W
09/30/2012 E1.75 INCH HITCHCOCK NE CO-OP OBSERVER
ESTIMATED TIME OF REPORT.
0730 PM HAIL CULBERTSON 40.23N 100.84W
09/30/2012 E0.75 INCH HITCHCOCK NE EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
LUNDQUIST
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KDDC [011239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDDC 011239
LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
739 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0733 AM HAIL 4 NW BISON 38.56N 99.24W
10/01/2012 E0.75 INCH RUSH KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
MSCOTT
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LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
739 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0733 AM HAIL 4 NW BISON 38.56N 99.24W
10/01/2012 E0.75 INCH RUSH KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
MSCOTT
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 011233
SWODY1
SPC AC 011231
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AL...THE FL
PANHANDLE...WRN/CNTRL GA AND SERN TN...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND A SERIES OF
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WAVES AFFECTING THE NRN ROCKIES...GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN CONUS TROUGH. AS A 60 KT S-SWLY MIDLEVEL JET
SPREADS NWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
CNTRL MS THIS MORNING WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NWD INTO THE
MID-SOUTH REGION. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG A N-S ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY
A COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD TOWARD CNTRL GA AND NRN FL TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE FORCED INVOF A WARM FRONT AS IT
LIFTS NWD ACROSS NRN AL/GA AND UPSTATE SC. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER
IMPULSE WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AID
IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
...FL PANHANDLE...AL...WRN/CNTRL GA...SERN TN...
A LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS FOCUSING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...BUT WEAK LAPSE
RATES ARE LIMITING SBCAPE VALUES TO 500-1000 J/KG. AREA VWP/S SHOW
THE PRESENCE OF A 40 KT SLY LLJ JUXTAPOSED WITH MIDLEVEL SWLYS NEAR
50 KT. THIS SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORING ROTATING STORMS THAT WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED THIS MORNING NEAR A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD
OVER CNTRL AL/GA...WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED OUT OF THE
SE...AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ENHANCED.
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WARM SECTOR CONVECTION MAY
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS MODEST DIABATIC HEATING BOOSTS TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A GREATER COVERAGE IN
STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS. NEVERTHELESS...WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS POSING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LATER TODAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE CONFLUENCE ZONE...WHICH WILL
SHIFT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT INTO CNTRL GA AND THE ERN FL PANHANDLE
TONIGHT.
...SC...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS SC TODAY. THE 12Z CHS RAOB AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT. N OF THE FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE BACKED OUT OF THE E...AND THEN RAPIDLY VEER TO S-SWLY ABOVE 1 KM
AGL. THERE MAY BE OVERLAP BETWEEN THE AREA OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUCH THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST.
...W TX...EDWARDS PLATEAU...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER W
TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES
SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S
COMBINED WITH 50S DEWPOINTS WILL FAVOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000
J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/01/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 011231
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AL...THE FL
PANHANDLE...WRN/CNTRL GA AND SERN TN...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND A SERIES OF
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WAVES AFFECTING THE NRN ROCKIES...GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN CONUS TROUGH. AS A 60 KT S-SWLY MIDLEVEL JET
SPREADS NWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
CNTRL MS THIS MORNING WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NWD INTO THE
MID-SOUTH REGION. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG A N-S ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY
A COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD TOWARD CNTRL GA AND NRN FL TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE FORCED INVOF A WARM FRONT AS IT
LIFTS NWD ACROSS NRN AL/GA AND UPSTATE SC. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER
IMPULSE WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AID
IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
...FL PANHANDLE...AL...WRN/CNTRL GA...SERN TN...
A LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS FOCUSING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...BUT WEAK LAPSE
RATES ARE LIMITING SBCAPE VALUES TO 500-1000 J/KG. AREA VWP/S SHOW
THE PRESENCE OF A 40 KT SLY LLJ JUXTAPOSED WITH MIDLEVEL SWLYS NEAR
50 KT. THIS SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORING ROTATING STORMS THAT WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED THIS MORNING NEAR A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD
OVER CNTRL AL/GA...WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED OUT OF THE
SE...AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ENHANCED.
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WARM SECTOR CONVECTION MAY
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS MODEST DIABATIC HEATING BOOSTS TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A GREATER COVERAGE IN
STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS. NEVERTHELESS...WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS POSING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LATER TODAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE CONFLUENCE ZONE...WHICH WILL
SHIFT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT INTO CNTRL GA AND THE ERN FL PANHANDLE
TONIGHT.
...SC...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS SC TODAY. THE 12Z CHS RAOB AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT. N OF THE FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE BACKED OUT OF THE E...AND THEN RAPIDLY VEER TO S-SWLY ABOVE 1 KM
AGL. THERE MAY BE OVERLAP BETWEEN THE AREA OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUCH THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST.
...W TX...EDWARDS PLATEAU...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER W
TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES
SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S
COMBINED WITH 50S DEWPOINTS WILL FAVOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000
J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/01/2012
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KBMX [011216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KBMX 011216
LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
716 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW SPEED 32.75N 86.28W
10/01/2012 ELMORE AL EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR COUNTY ROAD 429 AND THE ELMORE
AND COOSA COUNTY LINE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
&&
$$
LINHARES
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LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
716 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW SPEED 32.75N 86.28W
10/01/2012 ELMORE AL EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR COUNTY ROAD 429 AND THE ELMORE
AND COOSA COUNTY LINE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
&&
$$
LINHARES
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KBMX [011207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KBMX 011207
LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
707 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0657 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.
&&
$$
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LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
707 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0657 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS.
&&
$$
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KBMX [011204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KBMX 011204
LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0657 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS
THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADS.
&&
$$
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LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0657 AM HEAVY RAIN OXFORD 33.60N 85.83W
10/01/2012 E1.80 INCH CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE OXFORD AREA IN LESS
THAN A TWO HOUR PERIOD CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADS.
&&
$$
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2013
ACUS11 KWNS 011052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011051
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-011245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011051Z - 011245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SITUATION FOR BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES EXISTS BUT
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN AL NWD TO A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM NERN AL INTO NWRN GA. INSTABILITY REMAINS
WEAK WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
ARE HELPING TO MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY.
VWPS INDICATE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATION STORMS. RECENT
RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN BRIEF AREAS OF WEAK ROTATION AT TIMES...BUT
OBSERVED VELOCITIES HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE AMBIENT
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES SLOWLY EWD. SMALL AMOUNTS OF HEATING FROM
SWRN GA INTO NRN FL WHICH MAY AID STORMS LATER THIS MORNING.
..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 10/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...
LAT...LON 30158701 31078678 32148660 32798656 33258667 33648698
33968692 33988618 33898547 33618493 33258460 32768464
31688484 30808502 30178516 29908539 29938570 30248617
30298661 30158701
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011051
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-011245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011051Z - 011245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SITUATION FOR BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES EXISTS BUT
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN AL NWD TO A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM NERN AL INTO NWRN GA. INSTABILITY REMAINS
WEAK WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
ARE HELPING TO MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY.
VWPS INDICATE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATION STORMS. RECENT
RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN BRIEF AREAS OF WEAK ROTATION AT TIMES...BUT
OBSERVED VELOCITIES HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE AMBIENT
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES SLOWLY EWD. SMALL AMOUNTS OF HEATING FROM
SWRN GA INTO NRN FL WHICH MAY AID STORMS LATER THIS MORNING.
..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 10/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...
LAT...LON 30158701 31078678 32148660 32798656 33258667 33648698
33968692 33988618 33898547 33618493 33258460 32768464
31688484 30808502 30178516 29908539 29938570 30248617
30298661 30158701
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 010823
SWOD48
SPC AC 010822
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CYCLONIC WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS FALL ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
EVEN SO IT APPEARS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE
SHUNTED WELL SOUTH/EAST OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND THE PROSPECT FOR
MEANINGFUL ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW THIS
PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 10/01/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 010822
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CYCLONIC WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS FALL ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
EVEN SO IT APPEARS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE
SHUNTED WELL SOUTH/EAST OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND THE PROSPECT FOR
MEANINGFUL ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW THIS
PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 10/01/2012
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