DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020058
SWODY1
SPC AC 020056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/NRN GA AND
FAR NERN AL NWD TO PARTS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN AND SERN KY...

...CENTRAL/NRN GA NWD TO FAR NERN AL/ERN TN/SERN KY/FAR WRN NC...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SWD INTO TX AND SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NWRN GULF NWD THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS
VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER WINDS FROM THE NERN GULF COAST TO
ERN TN/KY SHOULD BACK AND THUS BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL OVERNIGHT. THE
S/SERN EXTENSION OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE
LOWER TN/OH VALLEYS AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND MAINTAIN SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS/LINES OF SHEARED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 50+ KT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING
250 M2 PER S2/ PER 00Z FFC SOUNDING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THESE KINEMATICS ALSO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED ENEWD INTO PARTS OF ERN TN/SERN KY
AND ERN GA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ HAS
REACHED LOCATIONS FARTHER NNEWD ALONG AND W OF THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS /I.E. THE UPPER TN VALLEY/. DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY
THAT WOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN AND MODESTLY BOOST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
TO SUSTAIN TSTMS MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE SSW. ALTHOUGH THE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS THE 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ SHIFTS TO
THE NNE SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING A RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

IN ERN GA...TSTMS HAD INCREASED SOME IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING WITHIN AN APPARENT ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHERE SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE IMPINGING UPON THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE
WEDGE FRONT. GIVEN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
100-200 M2/S2...THESE STORMS POSE A NON-ZERO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
PRIOR TO THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD INTO A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR
MASS LOCATED N OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...REFER TO WW/S 658/659 AND RESPECTIVE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

...PARTS OF NRN SC AND SERN NC...
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION
AND THE LACK OF GREATER FORCING ALOFT SUGGEST THE CURRENT DECREASING
TRENDS IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT/LIGHTNING PRODUCTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. CONCURRENT DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST AS WELL
RESULTING IN NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES NEEDED BEYOND 01Z FOR THIS
REGION.

..PETERS.. 10/02/2012

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