DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180057
SWODY1
SPC AC 180055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHEAST...
A NARROW LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN PA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH ONLY
SCANT BUOYANCY /PER 00Z IAD RAOB/ FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
DESPITE 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL WLYS BEHIND THE LINE SAMPLED IN STATE
COLLEGE PA VWP DATA...OBSERVED SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

...SRN PLAINS...
THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ AND
THE POLEWARD RETURN OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS THROUGH THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD FORM IN
THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRENGTHENED THROUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ. CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR MAY BECOME APPRECIABLE...BUT LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD MITIGATE
THE RISK OF SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 10/18/2013

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KCYS [180012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 180012
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
611 PM MDT THU OCT 17 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
10/17/2013 M0.8 INCH LARAMIE WY OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SNOW STARTING TO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES.


&&

$$

HAMMER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1973

ACUS11 KWNS 172236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172236
PAZ000-180030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172236Z - 180030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVELY-RELATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PA...BUT A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE HAS SHOWN A RECENT
ORGANIZATIONAL INCREASE /ESPECIALLY SINCE 2130Z/ ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE DUBOIS AREA
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JOHNSTOWN PA AS OF 2220Z. THIS IS OCCURRING
NEAR A GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /1004 MB/ AND COLD
FRONT...WITH A PRECEDING CORRIDOR OF 2-3 MB/2HR PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. AN ALREADY LIMITED BUOYANCY PROFILE WILL BE
FURTHER HINDERED BY AN EARLY EVENING TREND OF COOLING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION/MODEST
ACCELERATION OF THE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CONTINUED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS/AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR. THE WIND PROFILE FROM THE STATE
COLLEGE /KCCX/ WSR-88D VWP INDICATES 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM. EVEN WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY...SOME
NEAR-SURFACE CINH...AND LITTLE OR NO CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING...A FEW
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED THIS
EVENING GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSHERIC WINDS.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 10/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 41147799 41497759 41607618 41317560 40527548 39767663
39837831 40407824 41147799

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KMFL [172153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 172153
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
553 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0548 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 W IMMOKALEE 26.42N 81.50W
10/17/2013 COLLIER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED OVER LAKE TRAFFORD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300244

$$

KONARIK

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KGRR [172050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 172050
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
450 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 W FENNVILLE 42.60N 86.16W
10/17/2013 M0.78 INCH ALLEGAN MI MESONET

MESONET STATION 3 W FENNVILLE /MIFEV/.
PRECIP TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT.


0400 PM HEAVY RAIN GRAND JUNCTION 42.40N 86.07W
10/17/2013 M0.59 INCH VAN BUREN MI MESONET

MESONET STATION GRAND JUNCTION /MIGRJ/.
PRECIP TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT.



&&

$$

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KFSD [172042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFSD 172042
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TORNADO 5 W WAKEFIELD 42.27N 96.96W
10/04/2013 DIXON NE NWS STORM SURVEY

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

0537 PM TORNADO 4 W WAKEFIELD 42.28N 96.95W
10/04/2013 DIXON NE NWS STORM SURVEY

OUTBUILDING DESTROYED.

0556 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 SE CONCORD 42.33N 96.92W
10/04/2013 DIXON NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0559 PM TORNADO 3 SSW ALLEN 42.37N 96.86W
10/04/2013 DIXON NE STORM CHASER

BRIEF TORNADO OBSERVED ON VIDEO.

0559 PM TORNADO 5 NNW EMERSON 42.34N 96.77W
10/04/2013 DIXON NE TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTI-VORTEX TORNADO TRACKING NORTH

0613 PM TORNADO 3 WSW SLOAN 42.21N 96.29W
10/04/2013 WOODBURY IA NWS STORM SURVEY

POWER POLES SNAPPED.

0616 PM TORNADO 2 WSW SLOAN 42.23N 96.25W
10/04/2013 WOODBURY IA NWS STORM SURVEY

SECOND BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN DESTROYED OUTBUILDING AND
REMOVED LARGE TREE BRANCHES.

0620 PM TORNADO 2 NW SLOAN 42.26N 96.25W
10/04/2013 WOODBURY IA EMERGENCY MNGR

1 MILE WIDE TORNADO WITH DAMAGE AT 310TH STREET AND I-29

0623 PM TORNADO 3 WSW NORTH SIOUX CITY 42.53N 96.55W
10/04/2013 UNION SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREES DOWN AND HOUSE DAMAGE

0626 PM TORNADO 3 ESE SALIX 42.29N 96.23W
10/04/2013 WOODBURY IA EMERGENCY MNGR

TORNADO WITH STRUCTURE DAMAGE AT DALLAS AVENUE AND 290TH
ST.

0628 PM TORNADO 2 WNW NORTH SIOUX CITY 42.55N 96.55W
10/04/2013 UNION SD NWS STORM SURVEY

SHED AND TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE TO RESIDENCE ROOF.

0629 PM TORNADO 4 E SALIX 42.32N 96.22W
10/04/2013 WOODBURY IA EMERGENCY MNGR

THREE DAIRY OPEN AIR BUILDINGS HAD ALL WALLS FAIL.

0630 PM TORNADO 2 NW NORTH SIOUX CITY 42.56N 96.53W
10/04/2013 UNION SD NWS STORM SURVEY

DAMAGE TO ROOF.

0631 PM TORNADO 2 SSE JEFFERSON 42.58N 96.54W
10/04/2013 UNION SD NWS STORM SURVEY

DAMAGE TO HOME AND FEEDLOT BUILDINGS. TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0634 PM TORNADO 2 SE JEFFERSON 42.59N 96.54W
10/04/2013 UNION SD NWS STORM SURVEY

LARGE AREA OF CORN FLATTENED. ROAD SIGNS REMOVED.
OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED. TREES SNAPPED.

0636 PM TORNADO 1 E JEFFERSON 42.60N 96.54W
10/04/2013 UNION SD NWS STORM SURVEY

POWER POLES SNAPPED. GRAIN BIN CRUSHED IN.

0638 PM TORNADO 9 N HORNICK 42.36N 96.08W
10/04/2013 WOODBURY IA NWS STORM SURVEY

LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW TREES DOWN.

0639 PM TORNADO 2 SSE BRONSON 42.39N 96.19W
10/04/2013 WOODBURY IA NEWSPAPER

LARGE TORNADO DAMAGED 3 HOMES AND A FARMSTEAD.

0640 PM TORNADO 3 NE JEFFERSON 42.63N 96.52W
10/04/2013 UNION SD NWS STORM SURVEY

SEVERAL GRAIN BINS REMOVED OR DAMAGED. LARGE BRANCHES
DOWN. POWER POLES SNAPPED.

0640 PM TORNADO 8 S MOVILLE 42.37N 96.07W
10/04/2013 WOODBURY IA NWS STORM SURVEY

GARAGE DESTROYED. ROOF DAMAGE AND WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF
HOUSE. SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED.

0641 PM TORNADO 10 W HINTON 42.62N 96.49W
10/04/2013 PLYMOUTH IA STORM CHASER

1/2 TO 1 MILE WIDE TORNADO

0644 PM HAIL 2 W MOVILLE 42.49N 96.11W
10/04/2013 E1.75 INCH WOODBURY IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0647 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 8 WSW ANTHON 42.34N 96.01W
10/04/2013 WOODBURY IA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0648 PM TORNADO 8 WNW HINTON 42.68N 96.44W
10/04/2013 PLYMOUTH IA NWS STORM SURVEY

SEVERAL TREES SNAPPED. DAMAGE TO OUTBUILDINGS.

0657 PM TORNADO 5 E MOVILLE 42.49N 95.97W
10/04/2013 WOODBURY IA TRAINED SPOTTER

MILE WIDE TORNADO PRODUCING MAJOR DAMAGE

0701 PM TORNADO 10 WSW LE MARS 42.75N 96.37W
10/04/2013 PLYMOUTH IA NWS STORM SURVEY

BRANCHES DOWN. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE.

0704 PM TORNADO 2 S PIERSON 42.51N 95.86W
10/04/2013 WOODBURY IA NWS STORM SURVEY

INTERIOR WALLS OF HOME REMOVED...AS WELL AS MOST OF
SOUTH...WEST AND NORTH EXTERIOR WALLS. SHED DESTROYED.
MAJOR LARGE TREE DAMAGE.

0709 PM HAIL 7 W WASHTA 42.58N 95.86W
10/04/2013 E1.00 INCH PLYMOUTH IA EMERGENCY MNGR

0728 PM TSTM WND GST QUIMBY 42.63N 95.64W
10/04/2013 E70.00 MPH CHEROKEE IA NWS STORM SURVEY

LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

0741 PM TORNADO 4 NNE QUIMBY 42.69N 95.62W
10/04/2013 CHEROKEE IA STORM CHASER

0746 PM TORNADO 3 SW CHEROKEE 42.72N 95.59W
10/04/2013 CHEROKEE IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

0818 PM TORNADO 6 SSW PETERSON 42.84N 95.40W
10/04/2013 CHEROKEE IA PUBLIC

CROPS FLATTENED AND TRACK IN FIELDS.

0833 PM TORNADO 5 SSW ALTA 42.60N 95.36W
10/04/2013 BUENA VISTA IA NWS STORM SURVEY

DRIVE THROUGH GARAGE COMPLETELY REMOVED. OUTBUILDINGS
DESTROYED. TREES DAMAGED.

0835 PM TORNADO 4 SSW ALTA 42.62N 95.34W
10/04/2013 BUENA VISTA IA NWS STORM SURVEY

POWER POLES LEANING. SMALL BRANCHES DOWN. CORNFIELDS
FLATTENED.

0840 PM TORNADO 6 W STORM LAKE 42.65N 95.31W
10/04/2013 BUENA VISTA IA NWS STORM SURVEY

LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN. OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED.

0842 PM TORNADO 5 WNW STORM LAKE 42.66N 95.30W
10/04/2013 F0 BUENA VISTA IA NWS STORM SURVEY

DAMAGE TO ROOF OF SCHOOL. HVAC UNITS MOVED. BLEACHERS
TOSSED 100 YARDS. LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

0844 PM TSTM WND GST ALTA 42.67N 95.30W
10/04/2013 E70.00 MPH BUENA VISTA IA NWS STORM SURVEY

LARGE TREES DOWN AROUND TOWN.

0846 PM TORNADO 3 NW WEBB 42.98N 95.05W
10/04/2013 CLAY IA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE AND BUILDING DAMAGE TO FARMSTEAD.


&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

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KGRR [172030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 172030
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
429 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW SOUTH HAVEN 42.36N 86.29W
10/17/2013 M2.25 INCH VAN BUREN MI MESONET

TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT AT THE MSU ENVIRO-WEATHER
SITE AT SOUTH HAVEN. RECEIVED 2.03 INCHES SINCE 9AM.


&&

$$

HOVING

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171958
SWODY1
SPC AC 171956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST
ATTM...ASIDE FROM SHRINKING MOST THUNDER AREAS. A NARROW BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ATTM FROM WRN PA SSWWD INTO SRN
WV/FAR WRN VA...AND THE LINE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD WITH TIME AS
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER VORT MAX ADVANCE. WHILE
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MINIMAL...STRENGTH OF FLOW ALOFT MAY STILL PERMIT A FEW STRONGER
GUSTS TO OCCUR LOCALLY AS THE CONVECTION PASSES FROM W-E THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/17/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS WITH
A BELT OF STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR STREAM...A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY 18/12Z. OTHER MORE PROMINENT VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL TRACK
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE NRN
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION TO CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES DURING THE D1 PERIOD.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH CNTRL PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING
MAINE EARLY FRI. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
EWD/SEWD TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

BOTH FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ATTENDING THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY...LIMITING THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE BAND --WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS-- WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FROM
CNTRL/ERN PA INTO NRN VA AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LINKS WITH THE FRONTAL UPLIFT.
SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTIVE BAND.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE SEASONABLY MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL YIELD MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT...

THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ AND THE
POLEWARD RETURN OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS THROUGH THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOOSTING MUCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS REGIME IN THE 18/09-12Z TIME FRAME AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY WAA/ISENTROPIC AT THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171730
SWODY2
SPC AC 171728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE U.S.
THOUGH THE PERIOD...AS A LARGE/EWD-MOVING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SEWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL
AIR SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SERN U.S. -- LEAVING
SEASONABLY COLD CONTINENTAL AIR TO COVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE COUNTRY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND S TX VICINITY...
SOME RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE INTO TX AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF TX.
ALONG WITH MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO EVOLVE TO THE N OF THE ANAFRONTAL-TYPE BOUNDARY.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES SSEWD WITH TIME AND THE LAGGING UPPER SYSTEM
BEGINS SHIFTING INTO THE SRN PLAINS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP -- MOST LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WHILE SHEAR -- AIDED BY 40-PLUS KT
MID-LEVEL WSWLYS -- WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
PRIMARILY ELEVATED/POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK. STILL...WILL MAINTAIN LOW /5%/ SEVERE RISK FOR
MARGINAL HAIL...AS WELL AS A WIND GUST OR TWO WITH ANY STORM WHICH
CAN BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR OR S OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.

..GOSS.. 10/17/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171611
SWODY1
SPC AC 171609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS WITH
A BELT OF STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR STREAM...A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY 18/12Z. OTHER MORE PROMINENT VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL TRACK
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE NRN
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION TO CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES DURING THE D1 PERIOD.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH CNTRL PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING
MAINE EARLY FRI. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
EWD/SEWD TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

BOTH FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ATTENDING THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY...LIMITING THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE BAND --WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS-- WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FROM
CNTRL/ERN PA INTO NRN VA AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LINKS WITH THE FRONTAL UPLIFT.
SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTIVE BAND.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE SEASONABLY MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL YIELD MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT...

THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ AND THE
POLEWARD RETURN OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS THROUGH THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOOSTING MUCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS REGIME IN THE 18/09-12Z TIME FRAME AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY WAA/ISENTROPIC AT THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/17/2013

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KCHS [171338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171338
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
938 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0724 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 ENE CHARLESTON 32.79N 79.93W
10/17/2013 CHARLESTON SC SOCIAL MEDIA

SALTWATER FLOODING FROM HIGH TIDE REPORTED ON EAST BAY
STREET. ROAD REMAINS OPEN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300933

$$

JHP

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KCHS [171257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171257
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
857 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 W CHARLESTON 32.79N 79.95W
10/17/2013 CHARLESTON SC SOCIAL MEDIA

SALTWATER FROM HIGH TIDE REPORTED ON CHERRY STREET.
STREET REMAINS OPEN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300932

$$

JHP

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KCHS [171253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171253
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
853 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
10/17/2013 CHARLESTON SC TIDE GAGE

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.13 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300931

$$

JHP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171252
SWODY1
SPC AC 171249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL U.S....DOWNSTREAM FROM
AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. RELATIVELY FAST SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE ERN STATES AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER IL CONTINUES ENE ACROSS
THE OH VLY...THE LWR GRT LKS...AND NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRI. AT THE
SAME TIME...A SERIES OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES WILL DROP S/SE ACROSS
THE RCKYS...MAINTAINING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PLNS.

AT THE SFC...THE IL IMPULSE WILL INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER PA
LATER TODAY...AND COLD FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID
ATLANTIC. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST BY LATE
TNGT...WHILE THE TRAILING SRN PORTION BECOMES QSTNRY OVER THE
N-CNTRL/NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF TX.

...CNTRL/NRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN/EVE...
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION N AND E OF DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OVER WV/PA
LATER TODAY...KEEPING MUCAPE AOB 250 K/KG. NEVERTHELESS...FAIRLY
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED 70 KT MID-LVL JET STREAK. GIVEN
AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S F...SETUP COULD YIELD A
SMALL BROKEN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS/STORMS IN CNTRL PA...AND
PERHAPS ADJACENT PARTS OF MD/WV/NRN VA. IF SUCH A LINE WERE TO
FORM...STRENGTH OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /700 MB SPEEDS AOA 40 KTS/
SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR GUSTS MAY OCCUR. GIVEN
THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND ONSET OF NIGHTFALL...ANY
SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME.

...SRN PLNS TNGT...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE MAY YIELD SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD
OVER NW TX AND WRN OK AS PARTLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS SPREADS NWD.
DEEP SHEAR WILL BE APPRECIABLE...BUT LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY RISK FOR SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/17/2013

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170743
SWOD48
SPC AC 170742

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS AS WELL AS MOST MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
PERSIST DURING THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH A MEAN SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REGIME WILL FOSTER SEVERAL INTRUSIONS
OF CP SFC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE U.S. WITH MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE GULF AND STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL ON DAY 6 WHEN
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS NRN FL IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD POSE AT
LEAST A MARGINAL/MODEST SEVERE THREAT...BUT OVERALL RISK IN THIS
REGION DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY AREA AT
THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 10/17/2013

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170703
SWODY3
SPC AC 170702

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD INTO THE NERN STATES SATURDAY NIGHT. QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR THE CAROLINA COASTS SWWD THROUGH THE
NRN GULF COASTAL REGION INTO S TX EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY FORM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SRN TX WILL CONTINUE EWD
AND SEWD...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AS IT
CONTINUES THROUGH S TX DURING THE MORNING AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT.

...S TX THROUGH SRN GULF COASTAL STATES INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL
REGIONS...

SCATTERED CONVECTION /SOME WITH VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING/ MAY BE
ONGOING ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS SRN TX AND FARTHER NORTH
ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND CAROLINA COASTS WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. DESPITE PRESENCE
OF MODERATE-STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT INLAND.

..DIAL.. 10/17/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170529
SWODY2
SPC AC 170528

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL U.S.
FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY
AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH
OK AND TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH S AND SERN TX.

...CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX...

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWWD THROUGH TX AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO AROUND 60 ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
NEAR 70 ALONG THE SRN THROUGH SERN COASTS. STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SPREAD INTO WRN TX WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX WHERE THE ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAP WRN EDGE OF MOIST AXIS AND WHERE
STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.

WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH...BUT LOW LEVEL RESPONSE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH MODEST FLOW
FORECAST IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL APPROACH 40-50 KT IN WARM SECTOR. STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SWRN THROUGH CNTRL TX FRIDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS
WITH RETURNING MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM SCNTRL THROUGH SERN TX
OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS...AND A LOW END SEVERE RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE PRIMARILY TO
THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 10/17/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170528
SWODY1
SPC AC 170525

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY FRI.
A SERIES OF UPSTREAM IMPULSES WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SURFACE...THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL AID IN THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATING EWD OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH TRAILING PORTION LINGERING INTO THE N-CNTRL
GULF.

...NRN APPALACHIANS...
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WITH NRN EXTENT IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...MUCAPE REMAINING AOB 250 K/KG. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE FRONT THU
EVENING...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD YIELD A
LOW-TOPPED/SHORT LINE-SEGMENT IN PARTS OF PA/NY. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
NEGLIGIBLE. BUT GIVEN THE POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED
SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT FOR EVEN CHARGE SEPARATION...WILL REFRAIN FROM
INTRODUCING DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.

...SRN PLAINS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME SHOULD YIELD SHOWERS AND A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS IS
DRAWN NWD. DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE PRONOUNCED...BUT LIKELY
MEAGER BUOYANCY SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS/COHEN.. 10/17/2013

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