NWUS53 KGRR 100329
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1129 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0820 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW MUSKEGON 43.18N 86.34W
10/09/2012 M52 MPH LMZ847 MI BUOY
THE MUSKEGON GLERL SITE HAD A GUST TO 52 MPH AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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Tuesday, October 9, 2012
KAPX [100110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100110
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
909 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0746 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE WATERS 44.88N 84.69W
10/09/2012 M40 MPH OTSEGO MI MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION MC020
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
909 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0746 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE WATERS 44.88N 84.69W
10/09/2012 M40 MPH OTSEGO MI MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION MC020
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KAPX [100109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100109
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
909 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0810 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N BAYSHORE 45.40N 85.10W
10/09/2012 M40 MPH LMZ342 LM MESONET
REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION 45022
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
909 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0810 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N BAYSHORE 45.40N 85.10W
10/09/2012 M40 MPH LMZ342 LM MESONET
REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION 45022
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KAPX [100109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100109
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
909 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0757 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW GAYLORD 45.02N 84.70W
10/09/2012 M41 MPH OTSEGO MI ASOS
REPORTED AT ASOS STATION GLR
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
909 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0757 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW GAYLORD 45.02N 84.70W
10/09/2012 M41 MPH OTSEGO MI ASOS
REPORTED AT ASOS STATION GLR
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KAPX [100107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100107
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
907 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 W BEAVER ISLAND 45.70N 85.90W
10/09/2012 M43 MPH LMZ362 LM MESONET
REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION WE3592
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
907 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 W BEAVER ISLAND 45.70N 85.90W
10/09/2012 M43 MPH LMZ362 LM MESONET
REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION WE3592
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KAPX [100108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100108
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
907 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 16 ENE BLACK RIVER 44.90N 83.00W
10/08/2012 M41 MPH LHZ362 LH MESONET
REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION WL3108
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
907 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 16 ENE BLACK RIVER 44.90N 83.00W
10/08/2012 M41 MPH LHZ362 LH MESONET
REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION WL3108
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KAPX [100107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100107
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
907 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0310 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MANISTEE 44.25N 86.35W
10/09/2012 M41 MPH MANISTEE MI MESONET
REPORTED AT GLOS STATION MEEM4
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
907 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0310 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MANISTEE 44.25N 86.35W
10/09/2012 M41 MPH MANISTEE MI MESONET
REPORTED AT GLOS STATION MEEM4
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KAPX [100107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100107
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
907 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0912 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE WHITEFISH POINT 46.77N 84.97W
10/08/2012 M41 MPH CHIPPEWA MI MESONET
REPORTED AT MQT_MESO STATION WFPM4
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
907 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0912 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE WHITEFISH POINT 46.77N 84.97W
10/08/2012 M41 MPH CHIPPEWA MI MESONET
REPORTED AT MQT_MESO STATION WFPM4
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KAPX [100107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100107
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
906 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNE NORTHPORT 45.21N 85.55W
10/09/2012 M45 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET
REPORTED AT GLOS STATION GTLM4
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
906 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNE NORTHPORT 45.21N 85.55W
10/09/2012 M45 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET
REPORTED AT GLOS STATION GTLM4
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KAPX [100107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100107
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
906 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0732 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S GRAYLING 44.61N 84.71W
10/09/2012 M45 MPH CRAWFORD MI MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION MC021
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
906 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0732 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S GRAYLING 44.61N 84.71W
10/09/2012 M45 MPH CRAWFORD MI MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION MC021
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KAPX [100107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100107
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
906 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0310 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW ENGADINE 46.10N 85.62W
10/09/2012 M45 MPH MACKINAC MI MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION MC003
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
906 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0310 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW ENGADINE 46.10N 85.62W
10/09/2012 M45 MPH MACKINAC MI MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION MC003
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KAPX [100106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100106
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
906 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE BREVORT 46.01N 85.01W
10/09/2012 M48 MPH MACKINAC MI MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION MC004
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
906 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE BREVORT 46.01N 85.01W
10/09/2012 M48 MPH MACKINAC MI MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION MC004
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KAPX [100106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 100106
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
906 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0540 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S NAUBINWAY 46.09N 85.44W
10/09/2012 M48 MPH LMZ341 LM MESONET
REPORTED AT GLOS STATION NABM4
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
906 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0540 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S NAUBINWAY 46.09N 85.44W
10/09/2012 M48 MPH LMZ341 LM MESONET
REPORTED AT GLOS STATION NABM4
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 100057
SWODY1
SPC AC 100056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...COLLIER...AND MONROE COUNTIES -- INCLUDING
THE KEYS -- WHERE REMNANT DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 03Z. THEREAFTER...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WILL PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
...AR/SRN MO/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS...
WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A NWD-EXTENDING PLUME OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SAMPLED BY THE 00Z LITTLE ROCK AND SPRINGFIELD RAOBS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AT LEAST MODEST INHIBITION. AND...WITH THE REGION
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN THE
INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDER CHANCES LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.
...CNTRL CA COAST...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE CNTRL CA COAST OVER THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN
UPPER LOW DRIFTING SWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD...A
GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED.
..COHEN/BROYLES.. 10/10/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 100056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...COLLIER...AND MONROE COUNTIES -- INCLUDING
THE KEYS -- WHERE REMNANT DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 03Z. THEREAFTER...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WILL PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
...AR/SRN MO/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS...
WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A NWD-EXTENDING PLUME OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SAMPLED BY THE 00Z LITTLE ROCK AND SPRINGFIELD RAOBS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AT LEAST MODEST INHIBITION. AND...WITH THE REGION
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN THE
INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDER CHANCES LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.
...CNTRL CA COAST...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE CNTRL CA COAST OVER THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN
UPPER LOW DRIFTING SWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD...A
GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED.
..COHEN/BROYLES.. 10/10/2012
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2029
ACUS11 KWNS 092159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092159
FLZ000-092330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 092159Z - 092330Z
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SWRN FL PENINSULA MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES TO 2 IN/HR THROUGH AROUND 23Z.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST-COAST
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SRN
COLLIER COUNTY SWD INTO MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AND INTO FAR SWRN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. MIAMI VWP DATA DEPICT WEAK MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE
CLOUD LAYER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT QUASI-STATIONARY
CONVECTION. AND...AS THE EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTS
WITH THIS CONVECTION WHILE MOVING WNWWD AROUND 10 KNOTS...SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AMIDST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A WARM-CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4-4.5 KM DEEP...RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...AND A DEEP/NARROW CAPE
PROFILE PER MODIFIED KEY WEST AND MIAMI 12Z RAOBS. AND...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 2-2.15 INCHES PER GPS PW DATA...RAINFALL RATES TO 2
IN/HR MAY OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
PRECIPITATION LOADING PROCESSES MAY ALSO SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS
WITH OCCASIONALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..COHEN.. 10/09/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...
LAT...LON 26128106 26118106 25808090 25608090 25278079 25218090
25308100 25438111 25638124 25768133 25908154 25988157
26118149 26128106
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092159
FLZ000-092330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 092159Z - 092330Z
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SWRN FL PENINSULA MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES TO 2 IN/HR THROUGH AROUND 23Z.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST-COAST
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SRN
COLLIER COUNTY SWD INTO MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AND INTO FAR SWRN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. MIAMI VWP DATA DEPICT WEAK MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE
CLOUD LAYER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT QUASI-STATIONARY
CONVECTION. AND...AS THE EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTS
WITH THIS CONVECTION WHILE MOVING WNWWD AROUND 10 KNOTS...SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AMIDST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A WARM-CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4-4.5 KM DEEP...RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...AND A DEEP/NARROW CAPE
PROFILE PER MODIFIED KEY WEST AND MIAMI 12Z RAOBS. AND...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 2-2.15 INCHES PER GPS PW DATA...RAINFALL RATES TO 2
IN/HR MAY OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
PRECIPITATION LOADING PROCESSES MAY ALSO SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS
WITH OCCASIONALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..COHEN.. 10/09/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...
LAT...LON 26128106 26118106 25808090 25608090 25278079 25218090
25308100 25438111 25638124 25768133 25908154 25988157
26118149 26128106
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 091928
SWODY1
SPC AC 091926
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
A MINOR SWD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TSTM PROBABILITY LINE
OVER THE FL PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEPENING NLY FLOW. WITH
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ONGOING OVER CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING...A FEW MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTNING.
..DARROW.. 10/09/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012/
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN E OF THE ROCKIES TODAY AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS SSWWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. S OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE FL PENINSULA...A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD DAYTIME TSTMS. THE SEVERE RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL GIVEN WEAK LOWER HALF TROPOSPHERIC
SHEAR AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 091926
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
A MINOR SWD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TSTM PROBABILITY LINE
OVER THE FL PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEPENING NLY FLOW. WITH
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ONGOING OVER CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING...A FEW MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTNING.
..DARROW.. 10/09/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012/
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN E OF THE ROCKIES TODAY AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS SSWWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. S OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE FL PENINSULA...A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD DAYTIME TSTMS. THE SEVERE RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL GIVEN WEAK LOWER HALF TROPOSPHERIC
SHEAR AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 091703
SWODY2
SPC AC 091702
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR SUSTAINED
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING DAY2 PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL NOT PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG SFC BOUNDARY THAT INITIALLY
SURGES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THEN RETREATS NWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE IN PART
TO UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR INCREASING LLJ
NEAR/AFTER DARK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHED ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF FAR WEST TX AND
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE WITHIN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO PORTIONS OF SERN NM. VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WOULD
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS. HAIL COULD ALSO
DEVELOP WITHIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN THE MOISTENING PROFILES
ACROSS THIS REGION.
DOWNSTREAM...WEAK WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF RETREATING BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FROM
ERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
SUGGEST HAIL COULD EVOLVE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT IT/S NOT CLEAR IF
SUFFICIENT ASCENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION TO JUSTIFY
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR SEVERE PROBS. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE OPTED TO LOWER SEVERE PROBS.
...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH NRN BAJA INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. FOCUSED ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN CA TOWARD FAR
WESTERN AZ BY 11/12Z AND THIS MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST DATA SUGGEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
BE INADEQUATE TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS WITH THIS FRONTAL CONVECTION.
..DARROW.. 10/09/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 091702
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR SUSTAINED
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING DAY2 PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL NOT PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG SFC BOUNDARY THAT INITIALLY
SURGES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THEN RETREATS NWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE IN PART
TO UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR INCREASING LLJ
NEAR/AFTER DARK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHED ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF FAR WEST TX AND
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE WITHIN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO PORTIONS OF SERN NM. VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WOULD
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS. HAIL COULD ALSO
DEVELOP WITHIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN THE MOISTENING PROFILES
ACROSS THIS REGION.
DOWNSTREAM...WEAK WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF RETREATING BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FROM
ERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
SUGGEST HAIL COULD EVOLVE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT IT/S NOT CLEAR IF
SUFFICIENT ASCENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION TO JUSTIFY
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR SEVERE PROBS. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE OPTED TO LOWER SEVERE PROBS.
...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH NRN BAJA INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. FOCUSED ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN CA TOWARD FAR
WESTERN AZ BY 11/12Z AND THIS MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST DATA SUGGEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
BE INADEQUATE TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS WITH THIS FRONTAL CONVECTION.
..DARROW.. 10/09/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 091605
SWODY1
SPC AC 091603
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN E OF THE ROCKIES TODAY AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS SSWWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. S OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE FL PENINSULA...A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD DAYTIME TSTMS. THE SEVERE RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL GIVEN WEAK LOWER HALF TROPOSPHERIC
SHEAR AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 10/09/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 091603
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN E OF THE ROCKIES TODAY AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS SSWWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. S OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE FL PENINSULA...A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD DAYTIME TSTMS. THE SEVERE RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL GIVEN WEAK LOWER HALF TROPOSPHERIC
SHEAR AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 10/09/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 091207
SWODY1
SPC AC 091206
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. UPSTREAM...A REX BLOCK PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD OFF OF THE NRN/CNTRL COAST OF CA.
WITH MUCH OF THE CONUS STILL STABILIZED AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT
COLD AIR INTRUSION...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.
...FL PENINSULA...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PWAT AROUND 2 IN/ WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LIMIT TSTM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA COMPARED TO MONDAY.
...NRN CA...
WHILE GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STEEP
LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS OF NRN CA.
...OH VALLEY...
LIMITED ELEVATED BUOYANCY /MU CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG/ MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SERN MO NEWD INTO SWRN OH DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIGHTNING. THE PREVIOUS
GENERAL THUNDER AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THIS REGION...THOUGH A
FEW ISOLATED STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 10/09/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 091206
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. UPSTREAM...A REX BLOCK PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD OFF OF THE NRN/CNTRL COAST OF CA.
WITH MUCH OF THE CONUS STILL STABILIZED AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT
COLD AIR INTRUSION...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.
...FL PENINSULA...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PWAT AROUND 2 IN/ WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LIMIT TSTM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA COMPARED TO MONDAY.
...NRN CA...
WHILE GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STEEP
LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS OF NRN CA.
...OH VALLEY...
LIMITED ELEVATED BUOYANCY /MU CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG/ MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SERN MO NEWD INTO SWRN OH DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIGHTNING. THE PREVIOUS
GENERAL THUNDER AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THIS REGION...THOUGH A
FEW ISOLATED STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 10/09/2012
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KSGX [091001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KSGX 091001
LSRSGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0650 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 51 WSW LA JOLLA 32.49N 118.03W
10/08/2012 M26.00 MPH PZZ775 XX BUOY
SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY 46086 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST
OF 23 KNOTS AT 650 PM.
&&
$$
SHARRISO
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LSRSGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0650 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 51 WSW LA JOLLA 32.49N 118.03W
10/08/2012 M26.00 MPH PZZ775 XX BUOY
SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY 46086 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST
OF 23 KNOTS AT 650 PM.
&&
$$
SHARRISO
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 090854
SWOD48
SPC AC 090853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A REMNANT CLOSED
LOW...OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...
WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY...BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
...INCLUDING A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION...
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STILL APPEAR MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.
THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL POSSIBLE
WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT NEAR A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB
JET...AND 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...A REGIONAL SEVERE OUTLOOK
APPEARS WARRANTED...AS THE POTENTIAL EVENT BEGINS TO COME WITHIN A
MORE PREDICTABLE TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 10/09/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 090853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A REMNANT CLOSED
LOW...OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...
WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY...BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
...INCLUDING A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION...
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STILL APPEAR MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.
THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL POSSIBLE
WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT NEAR A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB
JET...AND 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...A REGIONAL SEVERE OUTLOOK
APPEARS WARRANTED...AS THE POTENTIAL EVENT BEGINS TO COME WITHIN A
MORE PREDICTABLE TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 10/09/2012
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 090729
SWODY3
SPC AC 090728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A STRONG ZONAL BELT OF FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE
PACIFIC BEGINS TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...THE CLOSED
LOW WITHIN A REMNANT WEAKER BRANCH OF WESTERLIES... EXTENDING OFF
THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN A
SLOW EASTWARD ACCELERATION. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN
PLATEAU REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...SOME AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WITHIN THIS SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INLAND ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS ANOTHER COLD SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES...IN THE WAKE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND IN EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER A BROAD AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO CNTRL PLAINS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY PERIOD CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION...AND ITS POTENTIALLY STABILIZING INFLUENCE. BUT
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT GREATER
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NOSE OF
WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER...MID/ UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK...AND THERE MAY BE A
TENDENCY FOR THE FRONT TO UNDERCUT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
IT. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ...BOTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI... PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL.
..KERR.. 10/09/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 090728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A STRONG ZONAL BELT OF FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE
PACIFIC BEGINS TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...THE CLOSED
LOW WITHIN A REMNANT WEAKER BRANCH OF WESTERLIES... EXTENDING OFF
THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN A
SLOW EASTWARD ACCELERATION. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN
PLATEAU REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...SOME AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WITHIN THIS SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INLAND ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS ANOTHER COLD SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES...IN THE WAKE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND IN EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER A BROAD AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO CNTRL PLAINS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY PERIOD CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION...AND ITS POTENTIALLY STABILIZING INFLUENCE. BUT
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT GREATER
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NOSE OF
WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER...MID/ UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK...AND THERE MAY BE A
TENDENCY FOR THE FRONT TO UNDERCUT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
IT. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ...BOTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI... PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL.
..KERR.. 10/09/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 090549
SWODY1
SPC AC 090547
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
MID MO VALLEY TODAY AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS. A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
OH VALLEY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ABOUT 100 STATUTE
MILES OFFSHORE FROM THE NRN CA COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM
EUREKA SWD TOWARD THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA AS THE COLD POCKET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS
TODAY OR TONIGHT.
..BROYLES/COHEN.. 10/09/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 090547
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
MID MO VALLEY TODAY AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS. A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
OH VALLEY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ABOUT 100 STATUTE
MILES OFFSHORE FROM THE NRN CA COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM
EUREKA SWD TOWARD THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA AS THE COLD POCKET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS
TODAY OR TONIGHT.
..BROYLES/COHEN.. 10/09/2012
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 090501
SWODY2
SPC AC 090500
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCKING WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES...MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...AFTER FURTHER DIGGING
OFFSHORE MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DOWNSTREAM...CONFLUENT BELTS OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...AS
A VIGOROUS IMPULSE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES IN NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE OFF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE STALLING AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
...PARTS OF SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO LWR/MID MS VALLEY...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CATEGORICAL AND SEVERE PROBABILITY LINES HAVE
BEEN MADE BASED ON CURRENT ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITION...AND
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BENEATH A BUILDING
SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK...AND REMNANT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS MAY RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT COULD BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY LARGE CAPE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AND A WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION MAY
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS DO NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION IN A
MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THESE AREAS IS GENERALLY NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT VEERING WITH HEIGHT...BENEATH WEAK TO MODEST WESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...LWR COLORADO VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN...
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA.
LIFT MAY BE ENHANCED BY FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK... AND THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF COOLING...SUB-CLOUD AIR MAY
STILL POSSESS SIZABLE ENOUGH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS FOR
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO PROVIDE SOME RISK FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHEN COUPLED WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING.
..KERR.. 10/09/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 090500
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCKING WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES...MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...AFTER FURTHER DIGGING
OFFSHORE MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DOWNSTREAM...CONFLUENT BELTS OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...AS
A VIGOROUS IMPULSE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES IN NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE OFF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE STALLING AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
...PARTS OF SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO LWR/MID MS VALLEY...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CATEGORICAL AND SEVERE PROBABILITY LINES HAVE
BEEN MADE BASED ON CURRENT ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITION...AND
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BENEATH A BUILDING
SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK...AND REMNANT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS MAY RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT COULD BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY LARGE CAPE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AND A WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION MAY
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS DO NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION IN A
MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THESE AREAS IS GENERALLY NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT VEERING WITH HEIGHT...BENEATH WEAK TO MODEST WESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...LWR COLORADO VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN...
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA.
LIFT MAY BE ENHANCED BY FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK... AND THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF COOLING...SUB-CLOUD AIR MAY
STILL POSSESS SIZABLE ENOUGH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS FOR
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO PROVIDE SOME RISK FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHEN COUPLED WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING.
..KERR.. 10/09/2012
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